Solid Democrat States

[barfbag]

Let's discuss solid Democrat or solid blue states at the presidential level. A lot of you jumped the gun and didn't want to discuss states like Wyoming earlier. Alright now, let's stick to the list and discuss or debate how and why solid Democrat states vote the way they do. I don't sense many trends in them but maybe someone can find some. Please stick to the list of states and discuss them internally and externally along with their presidential politics.

Solid Democrat States:

Maryland
California
Illinois
Connecticut
Delaware

I made my lists by averaging votes as opposed to trends. We're talking about present and recent elections, not the future.

[PolitiJunkie]

Barfbag, these threads aren't gonna catch on if you say "THESE ARE THE STATES THAT FIT INTO THIS CATEGORY; ONLY DISCUSS THESE STATES." Because people have a right to choose what states fall into what category. In my opinion, this category comprises NJ, IL, CT, WA, and ME-01. You don't get to dictate.

[barfbag]

Barfbag, these threads aren't gonna catch on if you say "THESE ARE THE STATES THAT FIT INTO THIS CATEGORY; ONLY DISCUSS THESE STATES." Because people have a right to choose what states fall into what category. In my opinion, this category comprises NJ, IL, CT, WA, and ME-01. You don't get to dictate.

I don't mean to come off like that. If I've turned people off I'm sorry. There was a thread I made about discussing where the states fall. I think part of our disagreements come from me breaking down the states into 5 categories for each party as opposed to 4 as most people do along with a toss up column for Ohio. Please feel welcome to continue our discussion, but I was wanting more to discuss the states in groups. The states I broke down by internal similarity and recent election averages. Also, I only named the threads to attract people for discussion. What is your take on how these states vote and why they vote that way?

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

If we want to discuss states in this manner shouldn't we just do it by region so no one can dispute it? You can agrue about whether California is Solid or Safe but you can't argue that it is in the Northeast, not the West.

[barfbag]

If we want to discuss states in this manner shouldn't we just do it by region so no one can dispute it? You can agrue about whether California is Solid or Safe but you can't argue that it is in the Northeast, not the West.

We could do that too.

[ElectionsGuy]

If we want to discuss states in this manner shouldn't we just do it by region so no one can dispute it? You can agrue about whether California is Solid or Safe but you can't argue that it is in the Northeast, not the West.

We could do that too.

If we do, how many regions? 4? 5? 7?

[barfbag]

It should be 4, but we should first finish breaking the states down by ideology.

Northeast:

Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Maryland
D.C.

South:

West Virginia
Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Alabama
Mississippi
Arkansas
Louisiana
Texas
Oklahoma

Midwest:

Ohio
Indiana
Michigan
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Illinois
Missouri
Kansas
Nebraska
South Dakota
North Dakota

West:

Montana
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Idaho
Washington
Oregon
Nevada
California
Hawaii
Alaska

Can we finish doing it by ideology first? Pretty please with a cherry on top? I'll even post two a day. I promise.

[ElectionsGuy]

It should be 4, but we should first finish breaking the states down by ideology.

Northeast:

Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Maryland
D.C.

South:

West Virginia
Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Alabama
Mississippi
Arkansas
Louisiana
Texas
Oklahoma

Midwest:

Ohio
Indiana
Michigan
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Illinois
Missouri
Kansas
Nebraska
South Dakota
North Dakota

West:

Montana
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Idaho
Washington
Oregon
Nevada
California
Hawaii
Alaska

Can we finish doing it by ideology first? Pretty please with a cherry on top? I'll even post two a day. I promise.

Yes

[barfbag]

It should be 4, but we should first finish breaking the states down by ideology.

Northeast:

Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Maryland
D.C.

South:

West Virginia
Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Alabama
Mississippi
Arkansas
Louisiana
Texas
Oklahoma

Midwest:

Ohio
Indiana
Michigan
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Illinois
Missouri
Kansas
Nebraska
South Dakota
North Dakota

West:

Montana
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Idaho
Washington
Oregon
Nevada
California
Hawaii
Alaska

Can we finish doing it by ideology first? Pretty please with a cherry on top? I'll even post two a day. I promise.

Yes

thanks

[PolitiJunkie]

It should be 4, but we should first finish breaking the states down by ideology.

Northeast:

Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Maryland
D.C.

South:

West Virginia
Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Alabama
Mississippi
Arkansas
Louisiana
Texas
Oklahoma

Midwest:

Ohio
Indiana
Michigan
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Illinois
Missouri
Kansas
Nebraska
South Dakota
North Dakota

West:

Montana
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Idaho
Washington
Oregon
Nevada
California
Hawaii
Alaska

Can we finish doing it by ideology first? Pretty please with a cherry on top? I'll even post two a day. I promise.

There's probably more room for argument when it comes to dividing state by region than dividing state by ideology. Under the four-region system, I'd put Kansas and Missouri in the South and Nebraska and the Dakotas in the West, but I know that'd be an unpopular change. Dividing states into regions agonizes me a lot.

I can still identify dozens of problems with this though. There's no right answer!

[ElectionsGuy]

Official Four Regions (US Census):

Northeast (96) = Red
South (196) = Blue
Midwest (118) = Green
West (128) = Yellow

We could either do it this way, or the way Barfbag did it. Just letting all you know that these are the official regions.

[barfbag]

Official Four Regions (US Census):

Northeast (96) = Red
South (196) = Blue
Midwest (118) = Green
West (128) = Yellow

We could either do it this way, or the way Barfbag did it. Just letting all you know that these are the official regions.

This is how I would have the regions divided up. I've added threads for discussions on solid Republican and solid Democrat states. Tomorrow I'll be doing the likely groups or light red and light blue if you will.

[opebo]

Here's my take on the regions:

1. The light green are the white northern states - all leaning D
2. The Northeast is obvious - all solid D
3. the grey states are the industrial midwest/PA, mostly leaning D to Solid D, Indiana being the R exception, with OH tossup
4.  the dark blue are the sparsely populated mountain and other resource-dependent states - all solid R
5. Light yellow is the dry/chapped lip/Coccidioidomycosis belt, plus Hawaii - mostly solid D to lean D, except for the odd man out Arizona
6. The Deep South - pure racist voting makes this solid R
7. Finally I make a 'Tidewater' region including VA, NC, and FL, all of which are trending D to varying degrees, VA most of all, but all still very close.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Here's my take on the regions:

1. The light green are the white northern states - all leaning D
2. The Northeast is obvious - all solid D
3. the grey states are the industrial midwest/PA, mostly leaning D to Solid D, Indiana being the R exception, with OH tossup
4.  the dark blue are the sparsely populated mountain and other resource-dependent states - all solid R
5. Light yellow is the dry/chapped lip/Coccidioidomycosis belt, plus Hawaii - mostly solid D to lean D, except for the odd man out Arizona
6. The Deep South - pure racist voting makes this solid R
7. Finally I make a 'Tidewater' region including VA, NC, and FL, all of which are trending D to varying degrees, VA most of all, but all still very close.

A note about WV, opie.  Considering the state is nearly ALL-white, the 33% or so of whites Obama pulled is actually better than a lot of states in the Midwest and West, and certainly a lot higher than other Southern states, INCLUDING your Tidewater state of NC. 

If Obama wasn't seen as so anti-coal (which in reality, he kind of is), he undoubtedly would have grabbed about 40% of whites, putting him on par with places like OH, MD, and NM... as well as easily putting him way above any other Southern state amongst whites. 

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/10/1159759/-Percent-of-White-vote-won-by-Obama-2012-by-state

Don't mean to nitpick, but I just don't like the idea of grouping WV in with the rest of that region. 

[DS0816]

No. 1: non-state District of Columbia. Even when John Kerry lost in 2004, it was good for about 90 percent of the vote for Team Blue. If a Republican wins it … that's carriage of all 538 electoral votes.

[barfbag]

No. 1: non-state District of Columbia. Even when John Kerry lost in 2004, it was good for about 90 percent of the vote for Team Blue. If a Republican wins it … that's carriage of all 538 electoral votes.

D.C. is filled with government employees, minorities, and politicians. Republicans are a joke there.

[opebo]

Here's my take on the regions:

1. The light green are the white northern states - all leaning D
2. The Northeast is obvious - all solid D
3. the grey states are the industrial midwest/PA, mostly leaning D to Solid D, Indiana being the R exception, with OH tossup
4.  the dark blue are the sparsely populated mountain and other resource-dependent states - all solid R
5. Light yellow is the dry/chapped lip/Coccidioidomycosis belt, plus Hawaii - mostly solid D to lean D, except for the odd man out Arizona
6. The Deep South - pure racist voting makes this solid R
7. Finally I make a 'Tidewater' region including VA, NC, and FL, all of which are trending D to varying degrees, VA most of all, but all still very close.

A note about WV, opie.  Considering the state is nearly ALL-white, the 33% or so of whites Obama pulled is actually better than a lot of states in the Midwest and West, and certainly a lot higher than other Southern states, INCLUDING your Tidewater state of NC. 

If Obama wasn't seen as so anti-coal (which in reality, he kind of is), he undoubtedly would have grabbed about 40% of whites, putting him on par with places like OH, MD, and NM... as well as easily putting him way above any other Southern state amongst whites. 

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/10/1159759/-Percent-of-White-vote-won-by-Obama-2012-by-state

Don't mean to nitpick, but I just don't like the idea of grouping WV in with the rest of that region. 

Yeah that is a fair point.  I suppose in some ways WV fits with PA and OH in the gray industrial state Midwest, but then again the hillbilly culture of WV is pervasive in KY and parts of the Carolinas and Tennessee...

[barfbag]

Here's my take on the regions:

1. The light green are the white northern states - all leaning D
2. The Northeast is obvious - all solid D
3. the grey states are the industrial midwest/PA, mostly leaning D to Solid D, Indiana being the R exception, with OH tossup
4.  the dark blue are the sparsely populated mountain and other resource-dependent states - all solid R
5. Light yellow is the dry/chapped lip/Coccidioidomycosis belt, plus Hawaii - mostly solid D to lean D, except for the odd man out Arizona
6. The Deep South - pure racist voting makes this solid R
7. Finally I make a 'Tidewater' region including VA, NC, and FL, all of which are trending D to varying degrees, VA most of all, but all still very close.

A note about WV, opie.  Considering the state is nearly ALL-white, the 33% or so of whites Obama pulled is actually better than a lot of states in the Midwest and West, and certainly a lot higher than other Southern states, INCLUDING your Tidewater state of NC. 

If Obama wasn't seen as so anti-coal (which in reality, he kind of is), he undoubtedly would have grabbed about 40% of whites, putting him on par with places like OH, MD, and NM... as well as easily putting him way above any other Southern state amongst whites. 

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/10/1159759/-Percent-of-White-vote-won-by-Obama-2012-by-state

Don't mean to nitpick, but I just don't like the idea of grouping WV in with the rest of that region. 

Yeah that is a fair point.  I suppose in some ways WV fits with PA and OH in the gray industrial state Midwest, but then again the hillbilly culture of WV is pervasive in KY and parts of the Carolinas and Tennessee...

What would you say about MD, CA, IL, CT, and DE at the presidential level?