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Author Topic: Hillary vs. Christie: Vote by Race  (Read 1003 times)
TDAS04
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« on: September 07, 2013, 12:49:34 pm »
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In a Hillary vs. Christie matchup, what percentages would each receive among whites, blacks, Hispanics, and Asians?

I would guess that if Hillary wins the popular vote 51-47...

Whites:  Christie wins 55-43.
Blacks:  Hillary wins 86-13.
Hispanics.  Hillary, 76-23.
Asians:  Hillary, 77-22.

Hispanics and Asians could trend even more Democratic (considering Hillary's solid majorities among both groups during the the 2008 primaries).
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PolitiJunkie
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« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2013, 01:29:07 pm »
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I think Hillary would get 90% of the black vote, but otherwise, looks good.
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8. As you may know, a bill that makes major changes to the country's health care system became law in 2010. Based on what you have read or heard about that legislation, do you generally favor or generally oppose it?

Favor: 38%
Oppose, too liberal: 39%
Oppose, not liberal enough: 11%
No opinion: 13%
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« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2013, 07:08:29 pm »
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With the trend of white voters I don't see Clinton doing better than 44-55 amongst whites. She may do as poorly as 41-58. Other than that she's in really good shape.
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« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2013, 07:15:33 pm »
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Christie is not going to be picking up too many blacks.  This is not who he appeals to. 
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If it comes to that, yes, but there is no reason to be that pessimistic.
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« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2013, 07:23:33 pm »
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Christie is not going to be picking up too many blacks.  This is not who he appeals to. 

No but he should be able to pick up enough to get 12% or so. Assuming Clinton is his opponent that's a stretch though. Her husband will bring out the black vote like Jesse Jackson before him.
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« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2013, 07:29:10 pm »
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If Hillary 43% with whites she is looking at a 7-10 point win, not 4.
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barfbag
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« Reply #6 on: September 07, 2013, 07:30:42 pm »
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If Hillary 43% with whites she is looking at a 7-10 point win, not 4.

This is what I'm afraid of. However, let's keep some optimism. Remember the general eight year rule. We can do it.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2013, 07:31:49 pm »
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Christie is not going to be picking up too many blacks.  This is not who he appeals to. 

No but he should be able to pick up enough to get 12% or so. Assuming Clinton is his opponent that's a stretch though. Her husband will bring out the black vote like Jesse Jackson before him.

In 1992 and 1996, her husband received only 83% and 84% of the black vote, respectively.  The Clintons are not black.  Rightly or wrongly, some perceived the Clintons as being racially insensitive in 2008, and Hillary should do roughly as well as an average Democrat.  
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2013, 07:38:07 pm »
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In a Hillary vs. Christie matchup, what percentages would each receive among whites, blacks, Hispanics, and Asians?

I would guess that if Hillary wins the popular vote 51-47...

Whites:  Christie wins 55-43.
Blacks:  Hillary wins 86-13.
Hispanics.  Hillary, 76-23.
Asians:  Hillary, 77-22.

Hispanics and Asians could trend even more Democratic (considering Hillary's solid majorities among both groups during the the 2008 primaries).

According to Nate Silver's demographic calculator those votes would be roughly a 53-45 victory nationwide, with no states flipping relative to 2012.
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PolitiJunkie
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« Reply #9 on: September 07, 2013, 08:04:25 pm »
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Christie is not going to be picking up too many blacks.  This is not who he appeals to. 

No but he should be able to pick up enough to get 12% or so. Assuming Clinton is his opponent that's a stretch though. Her husband will bring out the black vote like Jesse Jackson before him.

In 1992 and 1996, her husband received only 83% and 84% of the black vote, respectively.  The Clintons are not black.  Rightly or wrongly, some perceived the Clintons as being racially insensitive in 2008, and Hillary should do roughly as well as an average Democrat.  

Yes, but keep in mind that then, Hillary was running against Obama, and now, she is tied to Obama and his administration in a massive way. Being tied to Obama may have its disadvantages, but keeping the coalition intact, especially with blacks, is an advantage. And 99% of blacks who have doubts about Clinton will have those doubts quelled when Obama is campaigning tirelessly for her day and night. I think the black vote goes 91-8 being the absolute worst case scenario for Clinton.
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Quote from: CNN/ORC Poll
8. As you may know, a bill that makes major changes to the country's health care system became law in 2010. Based on what you have read or heard about that legislation, do you generally favor or generally oppose it?

Favor: 38%
Oppose, too liberal: 39%
Oppose, not liberal enough: 11%
No opinion: 13%
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« Reply #10 on: September 07, 2013, 10:37:04 pm »
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Clinton winning blacks "only" 86-13 is not going to happen. Christie will be in the single digits, especially after the Republicans try another round of disenfranchisement in the run-up to the election.
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« Reply #11 on: September 08, 2013, 12:29:38 am »
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86-13 is a pretty realistic prediction for the black vote here. Clinton only beat Dole 84-12 (4 for Perot). The Clintons are not as appealing to blacks as Obama and Christie is hardly the worst candidate Republicans could put up in terms of scaring off blacks.
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« Reply #12 on: September 08, 2013, 01:03:59 am »
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Nah, I think blacks have shifted 5% or so more Democratic since Bush. Even in 2004 Kerry won 88% of blacks, and they've been around 90% (or more) for Democrats in midterm elections as well.
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« Reply #13 on: September 08, 2013, 05:06:32 am »
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Nah, I think blacks have shifted 5% or so more Democratic since Bush. Even in 2004 Kerry won 88% of blacks, and they've been around 90% (or more) for Democrats in midterm elections as well.

Almost all exit polls from mid-terms show blacks voting upper 80's (in most states).

2010:

Arkansas: 80% Lincoln, 13% Boozman
Florida: 74% Meek, 21% Crist
Indiana: 82% Ellsworth, 14% Coats
Illinois: 94% Giannoulias, 4% Kirk
Kentucky: 86% Conway, 13% Paul
Louisiana: 86% Melancon, 11% Vitter

2006:

Maryland: 74% Cardin, 25% Steele
Massachusetts: 80% Kennedy, 20% Chase
Minnesota: 79% Klobuchar, 18% Kennedy
Missouri: 91% McCaskill, 8% Talent
New Jersey: 82% Menendez, 15% Kean
Ohio: 85% Brown, 15% DeWine
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« Reply #14 on: September 08, 2013, 05:10:00 am »
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A 51-47 matchup might look like this:

White: 58% Christie-40% Clinton
Black: 88% Clinton-10% Christie
Hispanic: 73% Clinton-25% Christie
Asian: 69% Clinton-29% Christie
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opebo
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« Reply #15 on: September 08, 2013, 05:31:37 am »
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With the trend of white voters I don't see Clinton doing better than 44-55 amongst whites. She may do as poorly as 41-58. Other than that she's in really good shape.

She has to go down to below 38% of whites to lose. So, you're predicting she's extremely unlikely to lose?
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« Reply #16 on: September 08, 2013, 07:49:15 am »
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If Hillary 43% with whites she is looking at a 7-10 point win, not 4.

This is what I'm afraid of. However, let's keep some optimism. Remember the general eight year rule. We can do it.

The eight-year rule did not apply in 1940 or 1988. It came close to failure in 1960, 1976, and 2000. Example: trade the good looks of Kennedy with the ugliness of Nixon, and the Re[publicans win in 1960.
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« Reply #17 on: September 08, 2013, 10:16:32 am »
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Nah, I think blacks have shifted 5% or so more Democratic since Bush. Even in 2004 Kerry won 88% of blacks, and they've been around 90% (or more) for Democrats in midterm elections as well.

Almost all exit polls from mid-terms show blacks voting upper 80's (in most states).

2010:

Arkansas: 80% Lincoln, 13% Boozman
Florida: 74% Meek, 21% Crist
Indiana: 82% Ellsworth, 14% Coats
Illinois: 94% Giannoulias, 4% Kirk
Kentucky: 86% Conway, 13% Paul
Louisiana: 86% Melancon, 11% Vitter

2006:

Maryland: 74% Cardin, 25% Steele
Massachusetts: 80% Kennedy, 20% Chase
Minnesota: 79% Klobuchar, 18% Kennedy
Missouri: 91% McCaskill, 8% Talent
New Jersey: 82% Menendez, 15% Kean
Ohio: 85% Brown, 15% DeWine


Hmm... that's true. I was looking at these national exit polls: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/11/07/weekinreview/20101107-detailed-exitpolls.html?_r=0
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #18 on: September 08, 2013, 06:17:56 pm »
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Nah, I think blacks have shifted 5% or so more Democratic since Bush. Even in 2004 Kerry won 88% of blacks, and they've been around 90% (or more) for Democrats in midterm elections as well.

Almost all exit polls from mid-terms show blacks voting upper 80's (in most states).

2010:

Arkansas: 80% Lincoln, 13% Boozman
Florida: 74% Meek, 21% Crist
Indiana: 82% Ellsworth, 14% Coats
Illinois: 94% Giannoulias, 4% Kirk
Kentucky: 86% Conway, 13% Paul
Louisiana: 86% Melancon, 11% Vitter

2006:

Maryland: 74% Cardin, 25% Steele
Massachusetts: 80% Kennedy, 20% Chase
Minnesota: 79% Klobuchar, 18% Kennedy
Missouri: 91% McCaskill, 8% Talent
New Jersey: 82% Menendez, 15% Kean
Ohio: 85% Brown, 15% DeWine


Hmm... that's true. I was looking at these national exit polls: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/11/07/weekinreview/20101107-detailed-exitpolls.html?_r=0

This is House of Representatives, but still accurate. In recent history blacks vote on average 89-10 for democrats. Some states have very democratic blacks like New York and Illinois, others like Indiana and Texas have less democratic blacks. Obama has bumped up the average vote in 2008 and 2012 though.
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Devils30
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« Reply #19 on: September 11, 2013, 02:31:54 pm »
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I think it's wrong to expect a uniform swing among whites, Hillary would have room for moderate gains in VA, OH,NC (only a small gain is needed to flip NC) and could make significant gains in Florida where even Kerry got 42% and Obama underperformed in several areas of the state. PA too could produce strong Hillary gains around Pittsburgh and even Bucks County. AR, WV, KY would swing a good deal though I'm doubtful she would win any. On the other hand there isn't that much room for gaining whites in Colorado for Hillary.
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« Reply #20 on: September 11, 2013, 03:18:50 pm »
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"If minorities reach 30 percent of the vote next time, and the 2016 Democratic nominee again attracts support from roughly 80 percent of them, he or she would need to capture only 37 percent of whites to win a majority of the popular vote."

Since Clinton could pull those numbers, with Obama stumping with blacks and her historical appeal to hispanics (and likely little GOP outreach to either group), no way Clinton does not reach 37% white vote, so Clinton wins.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #21 on: September 12, 2013, 12:34:28 pm »
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Christie would certainly be in the single digits of the black vote.

However, black turnout could fall, which would have the same effect as getting a few more percentage points.

I could see Christie making serious inroads among the Asian population, also.
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