Is Darrell Issa in trouble?

[IceSpear]

Most of the district is in San Diego County, not Orange (check the maps, please) and Issa barely carried it. I'd say that Issa loses this seat, because it's not a good sign for any incumbent to perform that weakly in the primary.

The problem is that Issa is extremely rich. Dems will need to get serious about investing here if they want to take him out.

They better do it too. Claiming Issa's scalp would be glorious.

[Nyvin]

Sabato moved CA-49 (Issa) from safe GOP to Likely GOP:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2016-the-balancing-act/

[hopper]

These are 2012 Demographics of Royce's(CD-39) and Issa's(CD-49) Congressional Districts:

Royce(CD-39):

34% White, 33% Latino, and 28% Asian

Issa(CD-49):

62% White, 26% Latino, 7% Asian.

"The Cook Political Report" puts Issa's re-election at "Likely R".

[publicunofficial]

I think this is a legit Dem opportunity and there will be a lot of surprise Dem CD flips in the Southwest even in a narrow Clinton win.  CA-21, CA-25, CA-10, CA-49, NV-04, NV-03, UT-04, AZ-02, CO-06, CO-03, and TX-23 should all be top targets.  NM-02 could be interesting as well, but I think they got stuck with a some dude candidate.

The Dem recruits in AZ-02 have been weak fundraisers so far, and McSally seems like the type who could lock that seat down fairly quickly.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think this may just be an oddity of low Republican turnout and an unusually strong Democratic opponent. He may make Issa sweat a little, but shouldn't be a problem winning.

Worth noting that the other OC Republicans didn't have as much trouble.

Ed Royce has a decent opponent and a similar PVI district, and he crushed the primary with 60%+.

His district is more San Diego County than Orange, isn't it? Anyway, doesn't matter, if he's winning with 51% now he could win that way in November and the only surprise would be how close it is.

[IceSpear]

He's fallen even further since election night.

[IceSpear]

Apparently Issa said this to Applegate when he encountered him, according to Daily Kos (so take with a grain of salt):

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Ugh, what an insufferably arrogant SOB. Can we please get Steyer or Bloomberg to jump in here and show this a-hole he's not the only one with money?

[Nyvin]

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Wow, what a smug a-hole...

[mds32]

I think we are reading too far into a low turnout R affair.

[IceSpear]

I think we are reading too far into a low turnout R affair.

If it was just because of turnout issues, you'd expect Republicans to have done poorly across the board though. But that wasn't really the case. Denham and Royce performed very well, for example. It was pretty much just Issa who drastically underperformed (along with a few Democratic incumbents who overperformed)

[IceSpear]

An internal poll from the DCCC shows a 43-43 tie.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2016/jun/21/democratic-poll-shows-issa-tied/

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think we are reading too far into a low turnout R affair.

If it was just because of turnout issues, you'd expect Republicans to have done poorly across the board though. But that wasn't really the case. Denham and Royce performed very well, for example. It was pretty much just Issa who drastically underperformed (along with a few Democratic incumbents who overperformed)

Denham was under a majority. How is that overperforming?

[IceSpear]

I think we are reading too far into a low turnout R affair.

If it was just because of turnout issues, you'd expect Republicans to have done poorly across the board though. But that wasn't really the case. Denham and Royce performed very well, for example. It was pretty much just Issa who drastically underperformed (along with a few Democratic incumbents who overperformed)

Denham was under a majority. How is that overperforming?

I meant the GOP vote in general. Denham + the other Republican = 58%.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Issa is one of THE WORST members of the GOP House... and that's saying something.

[136or142]

I realize Applegate didn't have a primary opponent, so he probably wasn't going to run ads or anything anyway, but according to Opensecrets.org he had raised only $56,000 by June 15 and still came very close in this jungle primary.

I would certainly expect his fundraising to improve dramatically after this (if it doesn't he doesn't deserve to win) and I would expect Democratic Party supporters organizations like 'Red to Blue' to choose him as a candidate to back.