What if: Control of the Senate depends upon Louisiana run-off?

[free my dawg]

If Senate control will depend entirely upon Louisiana, then the race will be completely nationalized and Landrieu will lose. Period -- not only has Louisiana has moved right since 2002, but party allegiances have also solidified significantly since then. Obama's disapproval in Louisiana is built on much more solid ground than Bush's approval. If Senate control doesn't depend on the runoff (like it didn't depend in 2002), then Landrieu is certainly a canny politician and may be able to get a victory. But the scenario you described above is not one where she can keep office.