What if: Control of the Senate depends upon Louisiana run-off?

[IceSpear]

Unlike the pundit wet dreams of a 269-269 electoral vote tie which always has a <1% chance of actually happening, this scenario actually seems very plausible. Consider:

- At this point, the GOP will almost certainly take South Dakota (+1)
- They have modest but not insurmountable edges in West Virginia and Montana (+3)
- Have about a 50/50 shot of winning Arkansas (+4)
- Although Dems are the favorites in Alaska at the moment, it wouldn't be at all extraordinary for the Republicans to eventually pull ahead (+5)
- If they're doing well enough to pick up 5 seats, it's doubtful that they'll lose either of their vulnerable seats in Kentucky and Georgia (+5)
- In North Carolina, their weak field is starting to take its toll as Hagan extends her lead. The rest of their potential pickups are all long shots (+5)

That leaves Louisiana as the tie breaker in an otherwise 50-50 Senate. However, Mary Landrieu's challenger, Bill Cassidy, will almost certainly not be able to get to 50% even if he finishes ahead because LA has a jungle primary and there are a few gadflys running to his right.

That would leave control of the Senate to a runoff election. The entire country and both political establishments would be focused on this race. Although most people would write Landrieu off due to the state being Republican and Democrats not turning out as much in run-offs/off years, everyone did the same thing in 2002, when Landrieu unexpectedly won a run-off 52-48 buoyed by strong African American turnout. This despite the fact that Bush, with his at the time 70-80% approval rating, campaigned for and made ads for Landrieu's Republican opponent.

Although this would suck politically for me as a Democrat, it would be extremely exciting as a political junkie.

[IceSpear]

Landrieu Loses. The reality is Louisiana despite Landrieu's success is ruby-red.

Yes, but everyone said the same exact thing in 2002.

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Except this time, Landrieu would not be outspent 3-1 nor have a president with a 70% approval rating campaigning against her. I think that would neutralize the fact that Louisiana has moved to the right since 2002.

[IceSpear]

Landrieu Loses. The reality is Louisiana despite Landrieu's success is ruby-red.

Yes, but everyone said the same exact thing in 2002.

Obama wasn't around in 2002

True, but which is more of a liability? Having an incumbent president with a 35-40% approval rating (in LA) staying out of your race, or having an incumbent president with a 70-80% approval rating campaigning against you?