Hessen State Election, Sept. 22, 2013

[Franknburger]

To avoid the Hessen state election becoming completely overlooked due to the Federal election held in parallel, I open a separate thread for it.

The first post is re-posted from the German elections thread. However, there is also a fresh poll, which I report on afterwards.

[Franknburger]

Originally posted on August 31

A new poll on an election that is a bit less clear in outcome than the Federal one - Hesse state, held together with the federal election (infratest dimap, 21.08., 2009 in brackets):

CDU         39 (37.2)
SPD         31 (23.7)
Grüne      14 (13.7)
FDP           5 (16.2)
Linke         4  (5.4)
Others       7  (3.7)

45 red-green vs. 44 black-yellow (though, if Linke makes it in, possibly another grand coalition).

The next poll for the Hessen state election is out (FG Wahlen for FAZ/FFH):


45 red-green vs. 44 black-yellow.

Some more findings (full articles, in German, can be found here and here):
60% are highly or quite interested in the election. 57% will orient on state issues, 37% on federal issues.

The by far most important state-level issue is education (28%), followed by unemployment (16%).  On education, 31% trust the SPD most, 23% the CDU, and 8% the Greens. As concerns pre-school day care institutions, 35% are discontent with current supply, 27% content, 38% don't have an opinion or don't regard the issue as relevant.

Politician scores (+5 to -5)
Tarek Al-Wazir (Greens)                   +0.9
Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel (SPD)        +0.7
PM Volker Bouffier (CDU)                  +0.5
Jörg-Uwe Hahn (FDP)                       - 0.4
Janine Wissler (Linke)                      - 0.7

The survey also covered the federal election vote (2009 Fed. election in first bracket) [margin vs. state-level polling in second bracket]:

CDU         40 (37.2)      [+2]
SPD         27 (23.7)      [ -3]
Grüne      14 (13.7)      [ -1]
FDP           6 (16.2)      [+1]
Linke         5  (5.4)       [+1]
AfD            3  (---)         [ 0 ]
Others       5 (3.7)        [ 0 ]

[Franknburger]

New Hessen poll:



Decision already taken (by party):

Some 4% (6%x 69%) FDP core vote, 2% likely FDP loan vote, 5.5% (4ß% CDU x 14% "might change") potential for additional FDP loan vote.
Some 11% (12.5% x 85%) Grüne core vote, 1.5% likely, 6% (32% SPD x 21% "might change") potential for SPD->Grüne (Linke) shift.

Preferred PM:


Time for change?


Which party should lead the next state government?


Which coalition would be good for Hessen (multiple answers possible)
Red-Green            47  (-5)
Black-Yellow         45  (+6)
Grand coalition     38  (-5)
Black-Green          22 (-12)
Red-Red-Green     18 (-2)
Traffic-light            15 (-1)

Another nail-biter coming up (though I think 51% "time for change" will ultimately make its way).

[DC Al Fine]

Collapsing Green numbers are due to the whole pedophilia thing?

[Franknburger]

Collapsing Green numbers are due to the whole pedophilia thing?

The Green collapse is a national trend and extensively discussed in the "German elections" thread from post #1060 onwards. I suggest to leave and continue, respectively, the discussion there. However, if there are specific local factors in play (which I am not aware of, but Midas might know some), they of course belong here.

[minionofmidas]

I wonder if the high number of "FDP but not entirely decided" is due to people wondering which one of their second votes they'll give them. (The CDU, incidentally, has posters up explicitly asking for all four of our votes. I call that greedy. ) If so, expect the FDP to do weaker in Hesse than should be expected from whatever their national result is... in both elections.

The Left dropping in this poll... somehow that does not gel with anything at all.

While the bizarro allegations (both the allegations and the historical movement they relate to are out of this world) no doubt cost the Greens a few suburban soccer moms, they are a major issue of this campaign abroad only.

[Tender Branson]

My Hessen state election prediction:

39% CDU [+2]
32% SPD [+8]
10% Greens [-4]
  6% FDP [-10]
  4% Left [-1]
  4% AfD [+4]
  2% Pirates [+1]
  1% FW (-1)
  2% Others

Turnout: 74% (+13%), for obvious reasons ...

[BigSkyBob]

Collapsing Green numbers are due to the whole pedophilia thing?

The Green collapse is a national trend and extensively discussed in the "German elections" thread from post #1060 onwards. I suggest to leave and continue, respectively, the discussion there. However, if there are specific local factors in play (which I am not aware of, but Midas might know some), they of course belong here.

How could the allegation that the Green party is soft on pedophilia be anything other than relevant in every specific election in which they compete?

[minionofmidas]

No one not indubitably insane has, of course, alleged such a thing.

[Franknburger]

With "specific local factors", I was especially referring to the Odenwalschule. This private boarding school, founded in 1910, is one of the most renowned centres of reform pedagogics. Alumni include writer Klaus Mann, Green politician Daniel Cohn-Bendit, Klaus Gysi (father of Linke leader Gregor Gysi), Andreas von Weizsäcker (son of former German President Richard von Weizsäcker, CDU), Wolfgang Porsche, and Tyll Necker, former president of the Association of German Industries.

In the late 1990s, cases of sexual molestation by school director Gerold Becker between 1972 and 1985 became first known. The issue re-emerged  a few years ago, and an investigation by the current school leadership in 2010 listed 172 cases of molestation of pupils between 1965 and 1980. Subsequently, several pupils have published books on their time in the school and sexual molestation encountered.

Looking at the list of alumni, it should be quite difficult to directly link the case to the Greens. In fact, I can imagine quite a number of more influential former alumni that may have been interested in downplaying the issue when it first emerged in 1999. Nevertheless, on a subconscious level, the Green paedophilia debate may have worked to tie them into that local scandal. 

[minionofmidas]

Nyes. It's a 'reform' school, neither a traditional 'elite education' place nor a Catholic institution, ie a highly unusual place for a culture of sexual abuse*. (And it was such a culture - most of it student-on-student.) So of course it provoked letters to the editors a la "see!? These people are abusers too! Did you know that the Greens used to be for pedophilia!?" It's probably played a role as a catalyst for the current national 'debate'.
But it's not an acute election issue or anything. Election decisions based on this thing aren't based on facts; facts are not the point.

*Though I think any and every boarding school - or home schooling situation, for much the same reasons - is roughly equally susceptible to abuses. And infinitely more so than a day school.

[Franknburger]

Here the latest FPTP projection from www.election.de:

[minionofmidas]

Walter Wallmann is dead. RIP. There are worse Hessian Christian Democrats. Besides, he was the mayor of my childhood.

He passed yesterday late, though it only went on the news just now. Family not wanting to influence the election? His baby brother was mayor of Wiesbaden, his niece is an MdL.

[jaichind]

Any exit polls for Hessen yet?

[minionofmidas]

CDU 39
SPD 31
FDP 4.8
Left 6
Greens 10.5
AfD 4
Pirate 2
other 2.7

turnout 74

[jaichind]

CDU  40.5
SPD   32.5
FDP     4.5
Greens 9.5
Left      5


Possible SPD-Green government if Linke falls below 5%.

[minionofmidas]

Ninja'd.

[minionofmidas]

Poll workers are supposed to count the federal ballots first, so nothing happening here for a while yet.

[Zanas]

FDP seems out. CDU would have 51 seats, rot-rot-grün 59 seats. Is anything other than Grosskoalition possible here ?

[minionofmidas]

FDP seems out. CDU would have 51 seats, rot-rot-grün 59 seats. Is anything other than Grosskoalition possible here ?

Yes. A Grand coalition is not less problematic than a red-red-green coalition here.

When Schäfer-Gümbel went much closer to ruling it out than he previously had during the five-candidate debate, Al-Wazir (Greens) basically told he might not take that for an answer if necessary after the election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes. A Grand coalition is not less problematic than a red-red-green coalition here.

See previous editions of 'Hessian State Election' for why...

[Zanas]

I've read somewhere that SPD-Grünen was the most likely now. Does this mean Linke would not get in government but support it from the outside ? All the other coalitions seem impossible, including Gross and schwarz-gelb.

[minionofmidas]

Based on (a random sample of) what's in so far... SPD doing better at state level than federally, FDP slightly but consistently worse, AfD markedly worse (as was captured by exit polls), CDU, Greens, Left all over the place.

[minionofmidas]

Looks like the CDU will hold five of the six direct seats in Frankfurt. Thanks, Greens, for plastering the entire North End with "here both votes plz". Bettina Wiesmann looks like holding Frankfurt V for the CDU on 30% of the vote. (The apparent SPD gain is Frankfurt II.)

[minionofmidas]

Hersfeld-Rotenburg district all in.turnout 72.7 (+12.0) SPD 38.5 (+4.3) CDU 37.3 (+1.6) Greens 6.5 (-1.1) Left 4.7 (-0.1) AfD 4.1 FDP 3.5 (-9.9)

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federal result for comparison

First two declared constituencies - Hersfeld and Rotenburg, which latter extends into the northern neighbor district, are both narrow SPD holds.