Leaning Republican States

[barfbag]

These are some states which have surprised us in recent elections by voting Democrat or have been trending to the right this century. What has made these states trend to the left or right? I know you won't all agree that these states should be in the same category, but the point is more to discuss their opposing trends.

Montana
Tennessee
Indiana
Missouri
North Carolina

I also call these states purplish red or Republican battleground states.

[barfbag]

Anyone care to discuss Republican battleground states?

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Will Indiana come back to the solid right, remain purplish red, or drift to the middle again?

How much further will Tennessee trend in the future and can Clinton compete there?

What will become of Missouri's moderate Republican trend and is it gone for Democrats?

Why is Montana only close when Democrats win big?

Will North Carolina's leftward trend speed up again or was it a phase regarding internal politics?

[old timey villain]

Why in the world do you think Tennessee is lean Republican? You've definitely tried to make this a real thing in other threads but I don't understand your logic.

[Smash255]

Indiana will probably remain close to what it is now.  The shift in 2008 was a one time thing, but Indianapolis has shifted enough to make it hard for the state to be as staunchly GOP as it once was.  With that being said still out of reach for Democrats other than a blowout.

Tennessee, really isn't lean, its pretty solid GOP.  Memphis and Nashville will get more Democratic, but the rest of the state will get more Republcan.

Missouri will unlikely drift back to the center.  Metro St. Louis and the K.C area isn't going to enough.  An Akn type would make things interesting there, but that would be a national blowout.

Montana is a GOP state, but under the right circumstances has the ability to jump more than most.

North Carolina- likely continues its Democratic march.  Still lean GOP for another cycle or so, but headed to pure swing territory and any Democrat that wins nationally by 2-3 points or so has a real legit chance of taking it.

[barfbag]

Only because of their closeness in 2000.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Indiana: 2008 was basically the 1964 fluke that shouldn't have happened but it did. Indianapolis making it less GOP is offset by southern Indiana outside of Bloomington becoming much less Democrat (all congressional seats are held by the Tea Party south of Indy), Kokomo becoming lean Republican due to a very unpopular annexation and all the state house/senate representation for the area is strongly Tea Party. If the next annexation is successful(which would mean I'm annexed ((and I oppose it))) it will make it more so. Weird thing here is our Democrat mayor would fit in well with the GOP in most states.

In Indiana most Dems could be Moderate GOP'rs in other states and most GOP'rs are Tea Party.

[barfbag]

Indiana: 2008 was basically the 1964 fluke that shouldn't have happened but it did. Indianapolis making it less GOP is offset by southern Indiana outside of Bloomington becoming much less Democrat (all congressional seats are held by the Tea Party south of Indy), Kokomo becoming lean Republican due to a very unpopular annexation and all the state house/senate representation for the area is strongly Tea Party. If the next annexation is successful(which would mean I'm annexed ((and I oppose it))) it will make it more so. Weird thing here is our Democrat mayor would fit in well with the GOP in most states.

In Indiana most Dems could be Moderate GOP'rs in other states and most GOP'rs are Tea Party.

Mathematically, Indiana is at right about the same as West Virginia, Tennessee, and South Carolina for presidential elections, but 2008 makes it leaning or barely Republican simply because it flipped. It now depends on how you define leaning and barely. It will move back into the likely Republican and be light red though after 2016.