Slowing Trend in North Carolina

[barfbag]

2000 Bush      56-43   +14
2004 Bush      56-44   +9
2008 Obama   50-49   +6
2012 Romney 50-49   +5

Even though North Carolina has come a long way to the center we can see the trend slowing down. Will it continue to slowly trend to the left or stay the same? You can send us numbers on demographics all you want, but when it comes to elections the only numbers that matter are real votes. I've laid out the votes already so let's discuss trends and not demographics and races.

[Adam Griffin]

Even though North Carolina has come a long way to the center we can see the trend slowing down. Will it continue to slowly trend to the left or stay the same? You can send us numbers on demographics all you want, but when it comes to elections the only numbers that matter are real votes. I've laid out the votes already so let's discuss trends and not demographics and races.

Discussion's over, then - unless I'm allowed to conjecture from my ass?

[barfbag]

Even though North Carolina has come a long way to the center we can see the trend slowing down. Will it continue to slowly trend to the left or stay the same? You can send us numbers on demographics all you want, but when it comes to elections the only numbers that matter are real votes. I've laid out the votes already so let's discuss trends and not demographics and races.

Discussion's over, then - unless I'm allowed to conjecture from my ass?

Go ahead and send data, but you would have to make the argument that the trend would speed back up.

[ElectionsGuy]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=176203.0

I did a thread a while ago on this exact same topic. Don't feel bad though, we often repeat ourselves when the political climate is dry. I think its definitely trending democratic, but its still got at least about... say 8 years of leaning republican years.

[PolitiJunkie]

Classic barfbag having weak arguments and thus regulating what pieces of evidence may be entered into the conversation.

[JerryArkansas]

Here is a way you can tell the trend in North Carolina will keep happening, the approval rating of the governor and the state assembly.  Both of which are in the toilet.  If they had decent approvals, then yes, the state would probably trend rep in 2016, but the rep is doing so bad at state level it will screw anyone running in 2014/16.

[barfbag]

Classic barfbag having weak arguments and thus regulating what pieces of evidence may be entered into the conversation.

I happen to not be the only one whose made a thread on this topic. Why don't you tell us what you think of North Carolina's trend?

[barfbag]

Here is a way you can tell the trend in North Carolina will keep happening, the approval rating of the governor and the state assembly.  Both of which are in the toilet.  If they had decent approvals, then yes, the state would probably trend rep in 2016, but the rep is doing so bad at state level it will screw anyone running in 2014/16.

This is true at the state level. A valid indicator for how the state will trend is to compare Obama's approval rating in the state to the rest of the country. I haven't seen any signs it's center-left. When we look at the last two elections, Obama beat McCain by less than a point, but won the election by just under 7.5. We see it being roughly 7 points to the right. At the top I just rounded to the nearest point which came out to 6 to the right. Last year, Obama won by 4 nationally, but lost North Carolina by a statistical point, but nearly two points which would put the tar-heel state at about 6 points again or 5 points statistically.

[JerryArkansas]

Here is a way you can tell the trend in North Carolina will keep happening, the approval rating of the governor and the state assembly.  Both of which are in the toilet.  If they had decent approvals, then yes, the state would probably trend rep in 2016, but the rep is doing so bad at state level it will screw anyone running in 2014/16.

This is true at the state level. A valid indicator for how the state will trend is to compare Obama's approval rating in the state to the rest of the country. I haven't seen any signs it's center-left. When we look at the last two elections, Obama beat McCain by less than a point, but won the election by just under 7.5. We see it being roughly 7 points to the right. At the top I just rounded to the nearest point which came out to 6 to the right. Last year, Obama won by 4 nationally, but lost North Carolina by a statistical point, but nearly two points which would put the tar-heel state at about 6 points again or 5 points statistically.

I'm thinking that if these approval ratings stay the same or get worse going into 2016, we could see reverse coattails in the presidential race.  Like in 1980 in Arkansas where Frank White pull Reagan over the hump in the state.  Reagan only won arkansas by one point while frank won by three.  This is exactly what will happen in 2016 North Carolina.

[barfbag]

Here is a way you can tell the trend in North Carolina will keep happening, the approval rating of the governor and the state assembly.  Both of which are in the toilet.  If they had decent approvals, then yes, the state would probably trend rep in 2016, but the rep is doing so bad at state level it will screw anyone running in 2014/16.

This is true at the state level. A valid indicator for how the state will trend is to compare Obama's approval rating in the state to the rest of the country. I haven't seen any signs it's center-left. When we look at the last two elections, Obama beat McCain by less than a point, but won the election by just under 7.5. We see it being roughly 7 points to the right. At the top I just rounded to the nearest point which came out to 6 to the right. Last year, Obama won by 4 nationally, but lost North Carolina by a statistical point, but nearly two points which would put the tar-heel state at about 6 points again or 5 points statistically.

I'm thinking that if these approval ratings stay the same or get worse going into 2016, we could see reverse coattails in the presidential race.  Like in 1980 in Arkansas where Frank White pull Reagan over the hump in the state.  Reagan only won arkansas by one point while frank won by three.  This is exactly what will happen in 2016 North Carolina.

You know I keep forgetting North Carolina has their elections in presidential years. This means the state's internal affairs has more of a pull on the presidential election than other states. Damn!

[illegaloperation]

You know I keep forgetting North Carolina has their elections in presidential years. This means the state's internal affairs has more of a pull on the presidential election than other states. Damn!

It's probably safe to say that Perdue pulled Obama down with her in 2012.

[PolitiJunkie]

You know I keep forgetting North Carolina has their elections in presidential years. This means the state's internal affairs has more of a pull on the presidential election than other states. Damn!

It's probably safe to say that Perdue pulled Obama down with her in 2012.

Yeah. Without Perdue's massive failures, it would have been a pure toss-up. And now, with McCrory's and the legislature's massive failures, we'll see what happens in 2016.

[Devils30]

I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

[illegaloperation]

I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Quite true:

North Carolina (2000) = R+13
Virginia (1992) = R+10 (Perot brought the margin down)

North Carolina (2004) = R+10
Virginia (1996) = R+10

North Carolina (2008) = R+7
Virginia (2000) = R+9

North Carolina (2012) = R+6
Virginia (2004) = R+6

Now, if it were to follow as you said, there would be a massive democratic surge in 2016 that allows it to go from R+6 to R+1, we'll see if that really happens.

[barfbag]

I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

It looks that way, but their trend has clearly slowed down even with a phenomenal candidate for the state's demographics. There was basically no trend from 2008 to 2012. However, when Bush was in office it went from R +14 in 200 to R +6 in 2008.

[illegaloperation]

I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Quite true:

North Carolina (2000) = R+13
Virginia (1992) = R+10 (Perot brought the margin down)

North Carolina (2004) = R+10
Virginia (1996) = R+10

North Carolina (2008) = R+7
Virginia (2000) = R+9

North Carolina (2012) = R+6
Virginia (2004) = R+6

Now, if it were to follow as you said, there would be a massive democratic surge in 2016 that allows it to go from R+6 to R+1, we'll see if that really happens.

I doubt that even a huge surge can bring North Carolina to R+1 in 2016.

It will probably be R+3 (or R+2 with a surge).

[barfbag]

I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Quite true:

North Carolina (2000) = R+13
Virginia (1992) = R+10 (Perot brought the margin down)

North Carolina (2004) = R+10
Virginia (1996) = R+10

North Carolina (2008) = R+7
Virginia (2000) = R+9

North Carolina (2012) = R+6
Virginia (2004) = R+6

Now, if it were to follow as you said, there would be a massive democratic surge in 2016 that allows it to go from R+6 to R+1, we'll see if that really happens.

I doubt that even a huge surge can bring North Carolina to R+1 in 2016.

Me too. I don't know why Democrats are in so much denial about North Carolina's slowing trend. Actually, the same goes for Georgia's mythical trend. Yet they'll get all over us about being in denial about Virginia. What's funny is when it comes to Virginia, they're just making up our denial and lying about it. Our problem in Virginia is that we don't know how to campaign there yet.

[illegaloperation]

I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Quite true:

North Carolina (2000) = R+13
Virginia (1992) = R+10 (Perot brought the margin down)

North Carolina (2004) = R+10
Virginia (1996) = R+10

North Carolina (2008) = R+7
Virginia (2000) = R+9

North Carolina (2012) = R+6
Virginia (2004) = R+6

Now, if it were to follow as you said, there would be a massive democratic surge in 2016 that allows it to go from R+6 to R+1, we'll see if that really happens.

I doubt that even a huge surge can bring North Carolina to R+1 in 2016.

Me too. I don't know why Democrats are in so much denial about North Carolina's slowing trend. Actually, the same goes for Georgia's mythical trend. Yet they'll get all over us about being in denial about Virginia. What's funny is when it comes to Virginia, they're just making up our denial and lying about it. Our problem in Virginia is that we don't know how to campaign there yet.

lol!  You should read FiveThirtyEight. It talk about these things.

Both Virginia and North Carolina slowed down because of the recession and will pickup speed again.

As for Georgia, there isn't much movement right now because the Democratic gain among minorities is being cancelled by lost among whites. Democrats will need to wait until the percentage of whites drop low enough.

[barfbag]

I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Quite true:

North Carolina (2000) = R+13
Virginia (1992) = R+10 (Perot brought the margin down)

North Carolina (2004) = R+10
Virginia (1996) = R+10

North Carolina (2008) = R+7
Virginia (2000) = R+9

North Carolina (2012) = R+6
Virginia (2004) = R+6

Now, if it were to follow as you said, there would be a massive democratic surge in 2016 that allows it to go from R+6 to R+1, we'll see if that really happens.

I doubt that even a huge surge can bring North Carolina to R+1 in 2016.

Me too. I don't know why Democrats are in so much denial about North Carolina's slowing trend. Actually, the same goes for Georgia's mythical trend. Yet they'll get all over us about being in denial about Virginia. What's funny is when it comes to Virginia, they're just making up our denial and lying about it. Our problem in Virginia is that we don't know how to campaign there yet.

lol!  You should read FiveThirtyEight. It talk about these things.

Both Virginia and North Carolina slowed down because of the recession and will pickup speed again.

As for Georgia, there isn't much movement right now because the Democratic gain among minorities is being cancelled by lost among whites. Democrats will need to wait until the percentage of whites drop low enough.

You're saying we were in a recession last year which hurt Obama in Virginia and North Carolina?

[ElectionsGuy]

I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Quite true:

North Carolina (2000) = R+13
Virginia (1992) = R+10 (Perot brought the margin down)

North Carolina (2004) = R+10
Virginia (1996) = R+10

North Carolina (2008) = R+7
Virginia (2000) = R+9

North Carolina (2012) = R+6
Virginia (2004) = R+6

Now, if it were to follow as you said, there would be a massive democratic surge in 2016 that allows it to go from R+6 to R+1, we'll see if that really happens.

I doubt that even a huge surge can bring North Carolina to R+1 in 2016.

Me too. I don't know why Democrats are in so much denial about North Carolina's slowing trend. Actually, the same goes for Georgia's mythical trend. Yet they'll get all over us about being in denial about Virginia. What's funny is when it comes to Virginia, they're just making up our denial and lying about it. Our problem in Virginia is that we don't know how to campaign there yet.

lol!  You should read FiveThirtyEight. It talk about these things.

Both Virginia and North Carolina slowed down because of the recession and will pickup speed again.

As for Georgia, there isn't much movement right now because the Democratic gain among minorities is being cancelled by lost among whites. Democrats will need to wait until the percentage of whites drop low enough.

What about the "recession" made NC and VA slow down their trends, obviously there were huge trends to the left in 2008, and then mild trends in 2012. There is something special with these states and Obama, so be it the black turnout increase or increasing urban population going in extra hard for him, but he definitely had an appeal that Kerry or Gore didn't have.

[illegaloperation]

I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Quite true:

North Carolina (2000) = R+13
Virginia (1992) = R+10 (Perot brought the margin down)

North Carolina (2004) = R+10
Virginia (1996) = R+10

North Carolina (2008) = R+7
Virginia (2000) = R+9

North Carolina (2012) = R+6
Virginia (2004) = R+6

Now, if it were to follow as you said, there would be a massive democratic surge in 2016 that allows it to go from R+6 to R+1, we'll see if that really happens.

I doubt that even a huge surge can bring North Carolina to R+1 in 2016.

Me too. I don't know why Democrats are in so much denial about North Carolina's slowing trend. Actually, the same goes for Georgia's mythical trend. Yet they'll get all over us about being in denial about Virginia. What's funny is when it comes to Virginia, they're just making up our denial and lying about it. Our problem in Virginia is that we don't know how to campaign there yet.

lol!  You should read FiveThirtyEight. It talk about these things.

Both Virginia and North Carolina slowed down because of the recession and will pickup speed again.

As for Georgia, there isn't much movement right now because the Democratic gain among minorities is being cancelled by lost among whites. Democrats will need to wait until the percentage of whites drop low enough.

You're saying we were in a recession last year which hurt Obama in Virginia and North Carolina?

Virginia and North Carolina are moving to the left because Northerners are moving there.

[barfbag]

I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Quite true:

North Carolina (2000) = R+13
Virginia (1992) = R+10 (Perot brought the margin down)

North Carolina (2004) = R+10
Virginia (1996) = R+10

North Carolina (2008) = R+7
Virginia (2000) = R+9

North Carolina (2012) = R+6
Virginia (2004) = R+6

Now, if it were to follow as you said, there would be a massive democratic surge in 2016 that allows it to go from R+6 to R+1, we'll see if that really happens.

I doubt that even a huge surge can bring North Carolina to R+1 in 2016.

Me too. I don't know why Democrats are in so much denial about North Carolina's slowing trend. Actually, the same goes for Georgia's mythical trend. Yet they'll get all over us about being in denial about Virginia. What's funny is when it comes to Virginia, they're just making up our denial and lying about it. Our problem in Virginia is that we don't know how to campaign there yet.

lol!  You should read FiveThirtyEight. It talk about these things.

Both Virginia and North Carolina slowed down because of the recession and will pickup speed again.

As for Georgia, there isn't much movement right now because the Democratic gain among minorities is being cancelled by lost among whites. Democrats will need to wait until the percentage of whites drop low enough.

What about the "recession" made NC and VA slow down their trends, obviously there were huge trends to the left in 2008, and then mild trends in 2012. There is something special with these states and Obama, so be it the black turnout increase or increasing urban population going in extra hard for him, but he definitely had an appeal that Kerry or Gore didn't have.

It's their excuses again.

PA- Oh it's fine. Obama just underperformed with whites. (playing the race card)
GA- Oh it's just a few elections away every single time. (only a measly 0.7% trend)
NC- Oh it's only 8 years behind Virginia. (the trend has actually slowed down to 1 freaking point)
VA- Oh it's D.C.'s population moving there. (the GOP just doesn't know how to campaign there yet)
TX- Oh the Latino vote will keep growing. (Latinos tend to be more conservative in TX.)

So you see Democrats are full of excuses to help them forget about the general rule of 8 year alternations.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Quite true:

North Carolina (2000) = R+13
Virginia (1992) = R+10 (Perot brought the margin down)

North Carolina (2004) = R+10
Virginia (1996) = R+10

North Carolina (2008) = R+7
Virginia (2000) = R+9

North Carolina (2012) = R+6
Virginia (2004) = R+6

Now, if it were to follow as you said, there would be a massive democratic surge in 2016 that allows it to go from R+6 to R+1, we'll see if that really happens.

I doubt that even a huge surge can bring North Carolina to R+1 in 2016.

Me too. I don't know why Democrats are in so much denial about North Carolina's slowing trend. Actually, the same goes for Georgia's mythical trend. Yet they'll get all over us about being in denial about Virginia. What's funny is when it comes to Virginia, they're just making up our denial and lying about it. Our problem in Virginia is that we don't know how to campaign there yet.

lol!  You should read FiveThirtyEight. It talk about these things.

Both Virginia and North Carolina slowed down because of the recession and will pickup speed again.

As for Georgia, there isn't much movement right now because the Democratic gain among minorities is being cancelled by lost among whites. Democrats will need to wait until the percentage of whites drop low enough.

What about the "recession" made NC and VA slow down their trends, obviously there were huge trends to the left in 2008, and then mild trends in 2012. There is something special with these states and Obama, so be it the black turnout increase or increasing urban population going in extra hard for him, but he definitely had an appeal that Kerry or Gore didn't have.

It's their excuses again.

PA- Oh it's fine. Obama just underperformed with whites. (playing the race card)
GA- Oh it's just a few elections away every single time. (only a measly 0.7% trend)
NC- Oh it's only 8 years behind Virginia. (the trend has actually slowed down to 1 freaking point)
VA- Oh it's D.C.'s population moving there. (the GOP just doesn't know how to campaign there yet)
TX- Oh the Latino vote will keep growing. (Latinos tend to be more conservative in TX.)

So you see Democrats are full of excuses to help them forget about the general rule of 8 year alternations.

I agree with these except for VA, the reason D's have been doing good there has been because its a battleground trending democratic, but obviously Cuccinelli, McDonnell, and E.W. Jackson make it easier for the D's to win, so this years gubernatorial election will look like a solid product for the left. I do agree that D.C. population and growth in "NOVA" has trended the state democratic. The republicans can do good there still, but they obviously have to realize that it isn't a red state anymore.

In Texas, not only is the Hispanic population conservative (but trended D), but the white population especially is trending R. Honestly, The D's shouldn't even be talking about this yet until Texas can get below R+15. Right now, its at R+20. Or, it can at least show a decent D trend (like 3 or 4 points).

[Adam Griffin]

Even though North Carolina has come a long way to the center we can see the trend slowing down. Will it continue to slowly trend to the left or stay the same? You can send us numbers on demographics all you want, but when it comes to elections the only numbers that matter are real votes. I've laid out the votes already so let's discuss trends and not demographics and races.

Discussion's over, then - unless I'm allowed to conjecture from my ass?

Go ahead and send data, but you would have to make the argument that the trend would speed back up.

Just to clarify: I'm not necessarily arguing that your premise is invalid, but to forego many other types of trends for one type of trend that has plenty of anomalies and exceptions in regards to individual states' long-term political trajectory is not wise. I hope to have some time later this evening to explore this further.