Slowing Trend in North Carolina

[barfbag]

Wait when you said not a problem did you mean because it benefited Democrats? LOL

It cut both ways. Perdue's unpopularity dragged Obama down in 2012.

Part of what I was getting at too is that Republicans in North Carolina seem disgruntled or almost as if they're doing all they can to turn the state back and the legislature isn't the place to do such a thing. Their ideology is going to rub people the wrong way. What they need to do is talk about their conservatism in ways people can relate to as Bush brilliantly did. At the rate they're going, it could flip in 2016. For now I'll put the state on the right side of the spectrum still. On a brighter note, the trend slowed down to one point in 2012 suggesting that the Democratic trend has nearly stopped. We'll see if it could pick up again.

[illegaloperation]

Part of what I was getting at too is that Republicans in North Carolina seem disgruntled or almost as if they're doing all they can to turn the state back and the legislature isn't the place to do such a thing. Their ideology is going to rub people the wrong way. What they need to do is talk about their conservatism in ways people can relate to as Bush brilliantly did. At the rate they're going, it could flip in 2016. For now I'll put the state on the right side of the spectrum still. On a brighter note, the trend slowed down to one point in 2012 suggesting that the Democratic trend has nearly stopped. We'll see if it could pick up again.

North Carolina is going to keep moving to the left because the urban areas are growing. There’s no denying that.

Had the Republicans in the general assembly governed from the center or center-right and McCrory been a popular governor, the Democratic takeover would have been delayed. They could have kept North Carolina Republican for many more cycles, but now, it’s going to accelerate because of what they are doing.

The opposite scenario happens in Arkansas.  Arkansas would have flipped Republican a long time ago, but a series of popular Democratic politicians (Bill Clinton, David Pryor, Dale Bumpers) helped delay the takeover.

[barfbag]

Part of what I was getting at too is that Republicans in North Carolina seem disgruntled or almost as if they're doing all they can to turn the state back and the legislature isn't the place to do such a thing. Their ideology is going to rub people the wrong way. What they need to do is talk about their conservatism in ways people can relate to as Bush brilliantly did. At the rate they're going, it could flip in 2016. For now I'll put the state on the right side of the spectrum still. On a brighter note, the trend slowed down to one point in 2012 suggesting that the Democratic trend has nearly stopped. We'll see if it could pick up again.

North Carolina is going to keep moving to the left because the urban areas are growing. There’s no denying that.

Had the Republicans in the general assembly governed from the center or center-right and McCrory been a popular governor, the Democratic takeover would have been delayed. They could have kept North Carolina Republican for many more cycles, but now, it’s going to accelerate because of what they are doing.

The opposite scenario happens in Arkansas.  Arkansas would have flipped Republican a long time ago, but a series of popular Democratic politicians (Bill Clinton, David Pryor, Dale Bumpers) helped delay the takeover.

So you think the trend will speed back up again and no longer continue to slow down? I agree with what you say about Arkansas. Carter was able to win there because of his southern base and Clinton won there as his home state. It would've been very interesting to see how Arkansas would've voted in the 90's if not for Clinton.

[illegaloperation]

The Tar Heel State will be R+3 in 2016.

[barfbag]

The Tar Heel State will be R+3 in 2016.

That sounds about right.

[PolitiJunkie]

The Tar Heel State will be R+3 in 2016.

That sounds about right.

Agreed.

[minionofmidas]

Here is a way you can tell the trend in North Carolina will keep happening, the approval rating of the governor and the state assembly.  Both of which are in the toilet.  If they had decent approvals, then yes, the state would probably trend rep in 2016, but the rep is doing so bad at state level it will screw anyone running in 2014/16.

Whether that affects federal results much, though, is quite another matter.

[barfbag]

Here is a way you can tell the trend in North Carolina will keep happening, the approval rating of the governor and the state assembly.  Both of which are in the toilet.  If they had decent approvals, then yes, the state would probably trend rep in 2016, but the rep is doing so bad at state level it will screw anyone running in 2014/16.

Whether that affects federal results much, though, is quite another matter.

It should more than in other states. The same theory could be applied to Washington, Indiana, Missouri, and I think there's a few other states who hold their governor elections in presidential years. These aren't states I'm the most familiar with, but it seems like North Carolina influences presidential elections in their state.

[nclib]

Here is a way you can tell the trend in North Carolina will keep happening, the approval rating of the governor and the state assembly.  Both of which are in the toilet.  If they had decent approvals, then yes, the state would probably trend rep in 2016, but the rep is doing so bad at state level it will screw anyone running in 2014/16.

Whether that affects federal results much, though, is quite another matter.

It should more than in other states. The same theory could be applied to Washington, Indiana, Missouri, and I think there's a few other states who hold their governor elections in presidential years. These aren't states I'm the most familiar with, but it seems like North Carolina influences presidential elections in their state.

We elected a GOP president and a Democratic Governor in 1968, 1980, 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004.

[illegaloperation]

Democrats controlled North Carolina at the state level for 140 years before they collapsed in 2010.
Even when a Republican governor was in office, Democrats were running the state behind the scene.

North Carolina Democrats are actually quite conservative. It would be fair to call them moderate Republicans.

North Carolina Republicans are ever farther right and consist almost entirely of far-right wing conservatives.

[PolitiJunkie]

Here is a way you can tell the trend in North Carolina will keep happening, the approval rating of the governor and the state assembly.  Both of which are in the toilet.  If they had decent approvals, then yes, the state would probably trend rep in 2016, but the rep is doing so bad at state level it will screw anyone running in 2014/16.

Whether that affects federal results much, though, is quite another matter.

It should more than in other states. The same theory could be applied to Washington, Indiana, Missouri, and I think there's a few other states who hold their governor elections in presidential years. These aren't states I'm the most familiar with, but it seems like North Carolina influences presidential elections in their state.

We elected a GOP president and a Democratic Governor in 1968, 1980, 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004.

Well actually, you didn't elect a GOP President in 1992 and 1996; you just attempted to.

[barfbag]

Here is a way you can tell the trend in North Carolina will keep happening, the approval rating of the governor and the state assembly.  Both of which are in the toilet.  If they had decent approvals, then yes, the state would probably trend rep in 2016, but the rep is doing so bad at state level it will screw anyone running in 2014/16.

Whether that affects federal results much, though, is quite another matter.

It should more than in other states. The same theory could be applied to Washington, Indiana, Missouri, and I think there's a few other states who hold their governor elections in presidential years. These aren't states I'm the most familiar with, but it seems like North Carolina influences presidential elections in their state.

We elected a GOP president and a Democratic Governor in 1968, 1980, 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004.

That's very interesting. I didn't know that. Have your Republicans always been so conservative? I'm wondering if they evolved from the southern Democrats of the mid-20th century.

[illegaloperation]

That's very interesting. I didn't know that. Have your Republicans always been so conservative? I'm wondering if they evolved from the southern Democrats of the mid-20th century.

The NC Republicans was very moderate until people like Jesse Helms joined it.

The strain of the old Dixiecrat is still in the modern NC Republican Party.

The "Jessecrats" are essential to any Republican wins in North Caroline.

[barfbag]

That's very interesting. I didn't know that. Have your Republicans always been so conservative? I'm wondering if they evolved from the southern Democrats of the mid-20th century.

The NC Republicans was very moderate until people like Jesse Helms joined it.

The strain of the old Dixiecrat is still in the modern NC Republican Party.

The "Jessecrats" are essential to any Republican wins in North Caroline.

Oh man maybe I'll move there and turn them into RINO's.

[illegaloperation]

That's very interesting. I didn't know that. Have your Republicans always been so conservative? I'm wondering if they evolved from the southern Democrats of the mid-20th century.

The NC Republicans was very moderate until people like Jesse Helms joined it.

The strain of the old Dixiecrat is still in the modern NC Republican Party.

The "Jessecrats" are essential to any Republican wins in North Caroline.

Oh man maybe I'll move there and turn them into RINO's.

You can do that, but the Jessecrats are a diminishing part of the electorate, hence why governing from the far-right is a shortsighted decision.

My suggestion is for you to move to South Carolina. You would fit in there. Maybe you can help them replace Lindsey Graham with a very conservative senator.

[barfbag]

That's very interesting. I didn't know that. Have your Republicans always been so conservative? I'm wondering if they evolved from the southern Democrats of the mid-20th century.

The NC Republicans was very moderate until people like Jesse Helms joined it.

The strain of the old Dixiecrat is still in the modern NC Republican Party.

The "Jessecrats" are essential to any Republican wins in North Caroline.

Oh man maybe I'll move there and turn them into RINO's.

You can do that, but the Jessecrats are a diminishing part of the electorate, hence why governing from the far-right is a shortsighted decision.

My suggestion is for you to move to South Carolina. You would fit in there. Maybe you can help them replace Lindsey Graham with a very conservative senator.

But if we're already going to win South Carolina, then it would help our party more if I moved to North Carolina. They seem to be dwindling there and need more help. I meant if I moved to North Carolina, then I could help the Republicans moderate more since I'm pretty moderate myself.

[illegaloperation]

That's very interesting. I didn't know that. Have your Republicans always been so conservative? I'm wondering if they evolved from the southern Democrats of the mid-20th century.

The NC Republicans was very moderate until people like Jesse Helms joined it.

The strain of the old Dixiecrat is still in the modern NC Republican Party.

The "Jessecrats" are essential to any Republican wins in North Caroline.

Oh man maybe I'll move there and turn them into RINO's.

You can do that, but the Jessecrats are a diminishing part of the electorate, hence why governing from the far-right is a shortsighted decision.

My suggestion is for you to move to South Carolina. You would fit in there. Maybe you can help them replace Lindsey Graham with a very conservative senator.

But if we're already going to win South Carolina, then it would help our party more if I moved to North Carolina. They seem to be dwindling there and need more help. I meant if I moved to North Carolina, then I could help the Republicans moderate more since I'm pretty moderate myself.

Actually, if you want to help your party, it makes more sense for you to stay in Virginia.

If Hillary is leading in North Carolina, then she very likely already have the election in the bag.

[barfbag]

Actually, if you want to help your party, it makes more sense for you to stay in Virginia.

If Hillary is leading in North Carolina, then she very likely already have the election in the bag.
[/quote]

She'll probably win VA before she wins NC though. After 8 years of a Democrat president though, she may not win either.

[illegaloperation]

What I am saying is that there no possible way Hillary could win North Carolina, but lose the election.

[hopper]

That's very interesting. I didn't know that. Have your Republicans always been so conservative? I'm wondering if they evolved from the southern Democrats of the mid-20th century.

The NC Republicans was very moderate until people like Jesse Helms joined it.

The strain of the old Dixiecrat is still in the modern NC Republican Party.

The "Jessecrats" are essential to any Republican wins in North Caroline.

The Conservatives Dems in the mid 80's were more conservative than the Moderate Republicans in NC and even VA back then. I saw an old clip of a Charlie Cook Interview on that topic like 2-3 weeks ago.

[barfbag]

What I am saying is that there no possible way Hillary could win North Carolina, but lose the election.

certainly agree

[opebo]

She'll probably win VA before she wins NC though. After 8 years of a Democrat president though, she may not win either.

Anything's possible, but the passage of time certainly doesn't make VA more likely to go GOP, whoever has been president.