any Turks here? soliciting comments on lira
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  any Turks here? soliciting comments on lira
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Author Topic: any Turks here? soliciting comments on lira  (Read 578 times)
compson III
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« on: September 15, 2013, 09:22:53 PM »

I'm long USD/TRY, wondering if there were any Turks here willing to comment on their economy.

My hypothesis is that the current weakness has little to do with Syria, and rather to do with the overheating of the Turkish economy.  Therefore, those betting on a strengthening currency contingent on the abatement of the crisis down south will lose their shirts.
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Beet
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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2013, 04:29:09 PM »

Non-Turkey specific, but the the schedule for "tapering" also has an effect. Note the strengthening at today's/yesterday's open. I agree with you however - high inflation, rapid credit growth and a rising trade deficit suggest overheating.
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compson III
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2013, 11:24:46 PM »

Non-Turkey specific, but the the schedule for "tapering" also has an effect. Note the strengthening at today's/yesterday's open. I agree with you however - high inflation, rapid credit growth and a rising trade deficit suggest overheating.
Well you were right on target here.  My stop loss was triggered and I'm vacating this trade until I can determine whether the market's new perception of the fed is going to shift the prevailing bias back in favor of EM.  The Borsa 100 is up over 10% in the last week or so, looks like this bubble may be reinflating.
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