Barely Republican States

[barfbag]

Yes, I'm going to include Virginia in here for argument's sake. Mostly this is because I'm using voter data from recent elections as opposed to trends. When looking at the Obama elections Virginia was purplish blue and for the Bush elections they were light red. What is it about Florida that makes it just right of the center in pretty much every single election? Having lived in Florida and being very familiar with their demographics, there is a larger elderly population and it's location in the deep south makes it a socially conservative state. There is also a right to work guaranteed in the state's constitution leading to a very Republican economy. Demographic wise there are a lot of minorities and environmental problems that not even the most conservative people can ignore. Let's have some fun and talk about barely Republican or reddish purple states.

Florida
Virginia

[Person Man]

Florida should really vote like Michigan but I think its because of a higher median age (about 3 years higher), maybe its a  and many of the lighter skinned minorities (Jews and Hispanics (many of which are 100% European)) there are very hawkish and many older ones are still punishing the Democrats for Vietnam (just like the median service member is doing) and the Bay of Pigs. But when you look at the hard numbers, these two facts probably push, at most, make Florida from a 0 state to a R+1. Florida really should be more of a D+2 or D+3, given its demography. I think the other two things are probably that every Florida resident is constitutionally entitled to work in an open shop (this makes the working-class harder to get out for Democrats) and that a large proportion of whites are Evangelical but still Florida overwhelming voted against even modest new abortion restrictions in 2012. So, its a lot of little things that just make Florida Democrats "hard to organize" and in itself makes a good case for Florida Republicans.

[roadkill]

Virginia is your classic urban vs. rural voter split.  The vast majority of counties lean strongly in support for Republicans, but they have a much lower population that the left(ish) leaning counties with large urban centers.  A lot of states are like this and more are on their way as urban centers grow at a much greater rate than their rural counterparts.  Having said that, Virginia's urban centers are not that left leaning when compared to those in the North East, just when compared to the rest of Virginia.  They are not so far gone that they are safe for Dems.  They could easily turn for Republicans with the right candidate.  It's just not likely to happen consistently. 

[barfbag]

Virginia is your classic urban vs. rural voter split.  The vast majority of counties lean strongly in support for Republicans, but they have a much lower population that the left(ish) leaning counties with large urban centers.  A lot of states are like this and more are on their way as urban centers grow at a much greater rate than their rural counterparts.  Having said that, Virginia's urban centers are not that left leaning when compared to those in the North East, just when compared to the rest of Virginia.  They are not so far gone that they are safe for Dems.  They could easily turn for Republicans with the right candidate.  It's just not likely to happen consistently. 

It's become a lot like Pennsylvania because there's a few Democratic counties in presidential elections with the rest being Republican. Without their urban areas, Virginia is still light red. You pretty much know what you're going to get in Virginia and it's just a matter of voter turnout in cities.

[Person Man]

Virginia is your classic urban vs. rural voter split.  The vast majority of counties lean strongly in support for Republicans, but they have a much lower population that the left(ish) leaning counties with large urban centers.  A lot of states are like this and more are on their way as urban centers grow at a much greater rate than their rural counterparts.  Having said that, Virginia's urban centers are not that left leaning when compared to those in the North East, just when compared to the rest of Virginia.  They are not so far gone that they are safe for Dems.  They could easily turn for Republicans with the right candidate.  It's just not likely to happen consistently. 

It's become a lot like Pennsylvania because there's a few Democratic counties in presidential elections with the rest being Republican. Without their urban areas, Virginia is still light red. You pretty much know what you're going to get in Virginia and it's just a matter of voter turnout in cities.

I think it is pretty similar to Pennsylvania or the Upper Mid West  but probably nudged a little more Republican because it basically a midwestern state built on top of a "solid south" state. The part of the state that is still "solid south" are just a few towns in the western hills. There aren't large resort towns that make up "solid south" Florida. Otherwise, the voting patterns in Virginia are a lot like what they are in the North.

I would go so far to say that in general, a Northern state is 2:1 in large cities, about 50-50 in suburbs and midsize cities and 1:2 in exurbs and rural counties. In Southern states, its abut 50-50 in large cities and 1:2 or even 1:3 everywhere else unless its a majority-minority place. This is probably a function of "southern" states being out of reach to Democrats despite cities and minority voters simply because a majority of white being evangelical.

[Smash255]

I really don't think you can classify VA as barely Republican anymore.

[barfbag]

I really don't think you can classify VA as barely Republican anymore.

It's on its way out. It will move to toss up after the next election. These things take time.

[Person Man]

I really don't think you can classify VA as barely Republican anymore.

It's on its way out. It will move to toss up after the next election. These things take time.

Like I said, the only claim that Virginia is a "Republican" or "Solid South" state is that there still are very conservative places in the mountains. Even Virginia Beach is steadily moving away from being a "Southern City".

[roadkill]

Like I said, the only claim that Virginia is a "Republican" or "Solid South" state is that there still are very conservative places in the mountains. Even Virginia Beach is steadily moving away from being a "Southern City".

The vast majority of Virginia easily fits within the characterization of being a part of the "Solid South".  You don't have to stay in the mountains.  They are as conservative as their peers in Georgia, Tennessee, or Alabama.  They're just becoming outnumbered by the more liberal populations in the D.C., Richmond, Charlottesville, and large population coastal areas.  If you drive between Charlottesville and Richmond you'll easily notice the cultural split happening in Virgina.  Plus, Southern cities are always more liberal than their rural counterparts.  That's par for the course.

[Gass3268]

Like I said, the only claim that Virginia is a "Republican" or "Solid South" state is that there still are very conservative places in the mountains. Even Virginia Beach is steadily moving away from being a "Southern City".

The vast majority of Virginia easily fits within the characterization of being a part of the "Solid South".  You don't have to stay in the mountains.  They are as conservative as their peers in Georgia, Tennessee, or Alabama.  They're just becoming outnumbered by the more liberal populations in the D.C., Richmond, Charlottesville, and large population coastal areas.  If you drive between Charlottesville and Richmond you'll easily notice the cultural split happening in Virgina.  Plus, Southern cities are always more liberal than their rural counterparts.  That's par for the course.

The difference being that Republicans only recieve about 53-58% of the vote in the areas between the cities, outside the mountians, in Virginia. Compared to  Georgia, Tennessee, or Alabama where Republicans get in between 60-80% between the cities. Also many of the suburbs are shifting in Virginia. This is similar to what we are seeing in Georiga and North Carolina, but not in other states like Tennessee, or Alabama.

[ElectionsGuy]

Florida has always been slightly left of center, and its shifting demographics clashed with a republican trend of whites. Even with that, the state trended democrat. Although 2012 was a rare case where Latinos were ultra supportive of the president.

Virginia has been trending D for a long time, and its finally a toss-up. With that said, cities, suburbs, and some black rural areas have trended massively D, while the white mountains trend R. Between the categories, republicans get 55-65% in white mountains, around 53% in blacker rural areas downstate, about 55-57% in white areas upstate (there is a big difference between white voters downstate (below Richmond) and upstate (Above Richmond)) outside the mountains. Meanwhile, democrats get 50-52% in suburbs, and 60-70% in urban areas. 

[barfbag]

1988 R +14
1992 R +10
1996 R +9
2000 R +9
2004 R +6
2008 R <1
2012 D <1

The trend goes back a quarter of a century. Actually it looks like it sped up again until this past cycle. I think it becomes like New Hampshire or at the most New Jersey. Hopefully, we'll be able to make up for it somewhere else.

[ElectionsGuy]

1988 R +14
1992 R +10
1996 R +9
2000 R +9
2004 R +6
2008 R <1
2012 D <1

The trend goes back a quarter of a century. Actually it looks like it sped up again until this past cycle. I think it becomes like New Hampshire or at the most New Jersey. Hopefully, we'll be able to make up for it somewhere else.

This is not indicative that the trend will continue, it could reverse or go in cycles in the future. I highly doubt it will be as Democratic as New Jersey (in the next 20 years) but I do think it could go as far as maybe Oregon.

[barfbag]

1988 R +14
1992 R +10
1996 R +9
2000 R +9
2004 R +6
2008 R <1
2012 D <1

The trend goes back a quarter of a century. Actually it looks like it sped up again until this past cycle. I think it becomes like New Hampshire or at the most New Jersey. Hopefully, we'll be able to make up for it somewhere else.

This is not indicative that the trend will continue, it could reverse or go in cycles in the future. I highly doubt it will be as Democratic as New Jersey (in the next 20 years) but I do think it could go as far as maybe Oregon.

That's what I was saying when I mentioned New Hampshire as a comparison. New Jersey might be a little further than it will go.

[barfbag]

1988 R +14
1992 R +10
1996 R +9
2000 R +9
2004 R +6
2008 R <1
2012 D <1

The trend goes back a quarter of a century. Actually it looks like it sped up again until this past cycle. I think it becomes like New Hampshire or at the most New Jersey. Hopefully, we'll be able to make up for it somewhere else.

This is not indicative that the trend will continue, it could reverse or go in cycles in the future. I highly doubt it will be as Democratic as New Jersey (in the next 20 years) but I do think it could go as far as maybe Oregon.

That's what I'm saying. I said New Hampshire which is similar to Oregon in numbers at the presidential level and New Jersey is a worst case scenario. Hopefully we can make up for it with Pennsylvania or learn how to campaign in Virginia.

[roadkill]

I think VA is going to take PA's place in the "toss-up" category.  They are very similar as far as the reasons behind the closeness of Presidential elections.  It's not like they have a large population of moderates that can swing from one side to the other depending on the election.  They have a large population of strong conservatives and liberals that are almost equal, with a small population of moderates that can tip the balance either way.  However, it looks like PA's liberal population has grown to the point that it fairly easily outnumbers the conservatives.  They're not really a toss-up anymore.  They're a pretty safe bet for Dems now.

[Gass3268]

Virginia is going to look more like much larger version of Maryland in the future.

In Florida, the massive Miami-Dade swing singlehandedly won the state for Obama in 2012. the Republicans better hope that they return to their normal precentages when it comes to Cubans. It is almost impossible for them to win the state if the Cuban vote is split close 50-50. The problem is that younger Cubans are politically closer to other Latino nationalites then their Republican parents.   

[barfbag]

I think VA is going to take PA's place in the "toss-up" category.  They are very similar as far as the reasons behind the closeness of Presidential elections.  It's not like they have a large population of moderates that can swing from one side to the other depending on the election.  They have a large population of strong conservatives and liberals that are almost equal, with a small population of moderates that can tip the balance either way.  However, it looks like PA's liberal population has grown to the point that it fairly easily outnumbers the conservatives.  They're not really a toss-up anymore.  They're a pretty safe bet for Dems now.

I don't think Virginia will ever get to where Maryland is. Pennsylvania is lean Democrat, Democratic battleground, or purplish blue. They're pretty much in the same place as where they were in the 50's still.

[Smash255]

I really don't think you can classify VA as barely Republican anymore.

It's on its way out. It will move to toss up after the next election. These things take time.

It did that in 08........

[barfbag]

I really don't think you can classify VA as barely Republican anymore.

It's on its way out. It will move to toss up after the next election. These things take time.

It did that in 08........

It depends on how far back you go. I look back to the least amount of times each party has won an even amount of elections.

[DS0816]

I really don't think you can classify VA as barely Republican anymore.

Correct.


Virginia is now a presidential bellwether state. So is Colorado.

North Carolina is next. Look at its Partisan Voting ID from 2000 to 2012, and the level of red has moved enough to make it "Competitive." Had Barack Obama won re-election with traditional gains in popular-vote margin and electoral-vote score, he would have carried the state again in 2012.


As for others, it's going to be up to the Democrats to move the bar. Georgia, Arizona, Texas, Montana, and South Carolina are ones they haven't truly contested. Former bellwether Missouri and Indiana, a Democratic pickup for Obama in 2008, produced same-level margins over the last two elections.

[Person Man]

and as long as  Republicans keep kicking wide in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan , there will be little need for Democrats to expand the map in kind. If think if Democrats can no longer rely on the Great Lakes in close elections, they will look to make up the difference on what's left for them to take on I-95 and maybe they will try harder in Montana. So that's NC, GA,SC and MT for WI,PA and MI. That's a reasonable trade. I don't think Texas will become an issue until Illinois and Minnesota lose their reliability. I don't think trying to take back what was lost because of W and Reagan will be a good strategy and thus Hillary could be a flawed candidate.

[barfbag]

I really don't think you can classify VA as barely Republican anymore.

Correct.


Virginia is now a presidential bellwether state. So is Colorado.

North Carolina is next. Look at its Partisan Voting ID from 2000 to 2012, and the level of red has moved enough to make it "Competitive." Had Barack Obama won re-election with traditional gains in popular-vote margin and electoral-vote score, he would have carried the state again in 2012.


As for others, it's going to be up to the Democrats to move the bar. Georgia, Arizona, Texas, Montana, and South Carolina are ones they haven't truly contested. Former bellwether Missouri and Indiana, a Democratic pickup for Obama in 2008, produced same-level margins over the last two elections.

Georgia's trend is very minor. Did you know it only trended 0.7% from 2008-2012. That's less than Pennsylvania and we don't hear Democrats getting worked up about it. Arizona has always been fool's gold too. I mean really state is pretty much where it's been for a quarter of a century. It would be stupid to compete in Texas for either party until one of them is up by about 17 nationally. Montana shows signs of purple in years where Republicans lose big. South Carolina is another fool's gold if you could even call it that.

South Carolina:

2000 R +15
2004 R +14
2008 R +16
2012 R +15

Do you really call this a trend?

Georgia:

1992  R +6
1996  R +9
2000- Bush's evangelical base raised a lot of money.
2004- Bush's evangelical base raised a lot of money.
2008  R +12
2012  R +11

This one point trend isn't worth even speaking of. I know Romney did as well as Bush or better amongst evangelical conservatives. However, votes doesn't always reflect money being raised for each candidate.