Kansas governor race 2014

[ElectionsGuy]

It doesn't matter that he's an *** or whatever, its a Safe Republican state so he can pretty much do what he wants, just like democrats can do whatever they want in Safe Democrat states.

Tell that to Martha Coakley, Alexi Giannoulias, Jon Corzine, Richard Mourdock, Joe Miller, etc etc etc.

It's also worth pointing out that this was the KS gubernatorial map the election before Brownback got elected:




I'm not saying there's anyone who can beat him on the foreseeable horizon, but upsets happen a lot more often than people realize, especially from this far out.

Absolutely, there could be an upset much down the road, but right now it seems like this is a pretty determined seat. Those states that those candidates were in, aren't exactly safe states (except Massachusetts, which has very high elasticity), Kansas, however is a safe state in presidential elections. The opposite party is far more likely to get elected to governor than many other offices, but as I've said, the parties have separated/become more polarized and stable. There could absolutely be an upset, I'm not denying that, but I think its a bit stupid (for lack of better word) to start talking about picking up a gubernatorial race in a safe red state. Right now, is Safe R/Likely R, later we could have something else.

Even with that said, I don't think democrats should have this anywhere on their radar yet (Key word: yet). The whole point of the message was calling out the partisanship because I don't see republicans trying to pick up Maryland, Rhode Island, California, etc. Please though, tell me if they do because I will call them out as well.

[illegaloperation]

Absolutely, there could be an upset much down the road, but right now it seems like this is a pretty determined seat. Those states that those candidates were in, aren't exactly safe states (except Massachusetts, which has very high elasticity), Kansas, however is a safe state in presidential elections. The opposite party is far more likely to get elected to governor than many other offices, but as I've said, the parties have separated/become more polarized and stable. There could absolutely be an upset, I'm not denying that, but I think its a bit stupid (for lack of better word) to start talking about picking up a gubernatorial race in a safe red state. Right now, is Safe R/Likely R, later we could have something else.

Even with that said, I don't think democrats should have this anywhere on their radar yet (Key word: yet). The whole point of the message was calling out the partisanship because I don't see republicans trying to pick up Maryland, Rhode Island, California, etc. Please though, tell me if they do because I will call them out as well.

How come there're talk about a gubernatorial race in Illinois since Illinois is a safe blue state?

[ElectionsGuy]

Absolutely, there could be an upset much down the road, but right now it seems like this is a pretty determined seat. Those states that those candidates were in, aren't exactly safe states (except Massachusetts, which has very high elasticity), Kansas, however is a safe state in presidential elections. The opposite party is far more likely to get elected to governor than many other offices, but as I've said, the parties have separated/become more polarized and stable. There could absolutely be an upset, I'm not denying that, but I think its a bit stupid (for lack of better word) to start talking about picking up a gubernatorial race in a safe red state. Right now, is Safe R/Likely R, later we could have something else.

Even with that said, I don't think democrats should have this anywhere on their radar yet (Key word: yet). The whole point of the message was calling out the partisanship because I don't see republicans trying to pick up Maryland, Rhode Island, California, etc. Please though, tell me if they do because I will call them out as well.

How come there're talk about a gubernatorial race in Illinois since Illinois is a safe blue state?

Illinois isn't a safe state, but in that situation is where the democrats are at worst. That race still leans D, and I'll be surprised if republicans pull an upset in 2014.

[illegaloperation]

Illinois isn't a safe state, but in that situation is where the democrats are at worst. That race still leans D, and I'll be surprised if republicans pull an upset in 2014.

Kansas isn't a safe state either at the state level.

From 1991 to 2010, Democrats had the governor office for 12 out of 20 years; Republicans had for 8.

Of cause that was before the 2010 wipeout.

[ElectionsGuy]

Illinois isn't a safe state, but in that situation is where the democrats are at worst. That race still leans D, and I'll be surprised if republicans pull an upset in 2014.

Kansas isn't a safe state either at the state level.

From 1991 to 2010, Democrats had the governor office for 12 out of 20 years; Republicans had for 8.

Of cause that was before the 2010 wipeout.

Again, I could say something very similar about Rhode Island. The parties are purely ideological now, I don't think Kansas will elect a democrat governor with the way the parties are now, even if they are a little different at the state level. All I'm saying is, its a bit useless to talk about safe state governorships until about a half year away. Not to mention, every rating site that I checked (I've checked 4) have this race at Safe R.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Brownback will win BIG (around 64-70ish) in 2014, and the KS Democrats will NEVER win back the governorship anytime soon unless Sebelius gets bored and runs for her old job again (which is UNLIKELY due to the hatred and unpopularity of Obama)

[publicunofficial]

With $1,002,389 in a little over 4 months, Paul Davis is beginning the election year with more money raised than any gubernatorial challenger in Kansas history.


A decent amount of Davis' support is coming from some of the moderate Republicans that lost their legislature seats in Brownback's purge.

[morgieb]

Tough to decide. Gut feel is that Davis is too liberal for Kansas, but Brownback is really in an awful state. Looks a lot like an inverse Illinois IMO.

[tmthforu94]

Can we please spell the name of my state correctly in the subject? That would be great.

[ElectionsGuy]

Don't think Davis has as much of an impact as people are thinking. We've only seen one poll (during the shutdown crisis, btw) that had Davis+4. Plus, the campaign needs to get started, and once Kansans hear Davis's views, I think a few of the moderate republicans that currently are going with Davis will go back to Brownback. That is if Brownback doesn't do something stupid to alienate people again. Anyway, he likely wins but with a sour margin, 55-44 would be my guess as of now.

Reading my previous posts, I realize I kind of sound like an ass, sorry about that

[tmthforu94]

As I've said before, Paul Davis is too liberal for Kansas, and with the aid of the Koch brothers, Brownback will have no problem exposing him to voters. A lot aren't happy with Brownback, but they'll take him over Davis.

[Zioneer]

Brownback will win BIG (around 64-70ish) in 2014, and the KS Democrats will NEVER win back the governorship anytime soon unless Sebelius gets bored and runs for her old job again (which is UNLIKELY due to the hatred and unpopularity of Obama)

Oh come on, in every single post I've seen of yours (and curiously, you only seem to post in the gubernatorial threads), you've been dissing a Dem candidate. Never once have I seen you praise ANY Democrat. Now you've got a relatively moderate Dem (or at least a Dem backed by moderate Republicans, which is usually what conservadems do), and you're still complaining and saying they'll lose badly?

Get rid of the red avatar, you clearly aren't using it.

Anyway, it's great that Davis is making this relatively competitive, even if he loses. Perhaps we are in Kansas anymore, Toto.

[LeBron]

As I've said before, Paul Davis is too liberal for Kansas, and with the aid of the Koch brothers, Brownback will have no problem exposing him to voters. A lot aren't happy with Brownback, but they'll take him over Davis.

So was Sebelius, but they elected her twice.

Unfortunately though, you might be right. Brownback raised over $600,000 more than Davis did and at the end of the day, the polarization of Kansas will really kick in especially if Pat Roberts is on the ballot to help Brownback out. I'm not counting Davis out though and this race I would consider just as potentially winnable for Democrats as Georgia or South Carolina.

And seriously? Who misspells Kansas of all states? It's not like it's Mississippi, Connecticut or something.

[windjammer]

Well, honestly, if I lived in Kansas, I would probably work hard to defeat Brownback. To be fair, KS republicans have always been decent with some "moderates" like Kassenbaum, Frahm and even Bob Doyle. But with his RINO hunt, Brownback has hit Kansas for a long time and he must be defeated.
As Tmthforu pointed out, he will probably survive.

[tmthforu94]

As I've said before, Paul Davis is too liberal for Kansas, and with the aid of the Koch brothers, Brownback will have no problem exposing him to voters. A lot aren't happy with Brownback, but they'll take him over Davis.

So was Sebelius, but they elected her twice.

Unfortunately though, you might be right. Brownback raised over $600,000 more than Davis did and at the end of the day, the polarization of Kansas will really kick in especially if Pat Roberts is on the ballot to help Brownback out. I'm not counting Davis out though and this race I would consider just as potentially winnable for Democrats as Georgia or South Carolina.

And seriously? Who misspells Kansas of all states? It's not like it's Mississippi, Connecticut or something.

Sebelius' father was a popular (Republican) figure in Kansas, which gave her a considerable advantage. Her opponent, Shallenburger, was also pretty weak and lacked proper funding and organization. Sebelius was liberal, but she made a name for herself by working with Governor Graves as Insurance Commissioner. Paul Davis has one of the most liberal voting records in the state - that's about all his record his. He's championed himself for years as a liberal, representing my city, Lawrence, which is one of the most liberal parts of the state. I think voters will see right through his pathetic attempt to look moderate and compromising.

[badgate]

This guy's got an explanation for everything, lol.



Go Davis! And congrats on his fundraising haul.

[tmthforu94]

This guy's got an explanation for everything, lol.



Go Davis! And congrats on his fundraising haul.

Well, it's where I was raised and where I currently go to school, so I happen to know a thing or two about Kansas politics.

I'm hope it's a close race - I don't want another boring election cycle in Kansas. Democrats got a candidate who will be able to rally the base, and their Lt. Governor has similar appeal to Sebelius and has a popular name in Kansas (Docking). Unfortunately, the Democratic base only represents about 1/4 of the state. The trick is getting a good majority of Independents and moderate Republicans to back them.

[Flake]

Kansas will not go for the Democrats, those days have long passed. I think the best case scenario is Davis loses by 2, but who knows? I may be wrong.

[Niemeyerite]

As I've said before, Paul Davis is too liberal for Kansas, and with the aid of the Koch brothers, Brownback will have no problem exposing him to voters. A lot aren't happy with Brownback, but they'll take him over Davis.

So was Sebelius, but they elected her twice.

Unfortunately though, you might be right. Brownback raised over $600,000 more than Davis did and at the end of the day, the polarization of Kansas will really kick in especially if Pat Roberts is on the ballot to help Brownback out. I'm not counting Davis out though and this race I would consider just as potentially winnable for Democrats as Georgia or South Carolina.

And seriously? Who misspells Kansas of all states? It's not like it's Mississippi, Connecticut or something.

Sebelius' father was a popular (Republican) figure in Kansas, which gave her a considerable advantage. Her opponent, Shallenburger, was also pretty weak and lacked proper funding and organization. Sebelius was liberal, but she made a name for herself by working with Governor Graves as Insurance Commissioner. Paul Davis has one of the most liberal voting records in the state - that's about all his record his. He's championed himself for years as a liberal, representing my city, Lawrence, which is one of the most liberal parts of the state. I think voters will see right through his pathetic attempt to look moderate and compromising.

Wan't Sebelius' father a democrat frfom Ohio who served as Governor for 1 term?

[Flake]

As I've said before, Paul Davis is too liberal for Kansas, and with the aid of the Koch brothers, Brownback will have no problem exposing him to voters. A lot aren't happy with Brownback, but they'll take him over Davis.

So was Sebelius, but they elected her twice.

Unfortunately though, you might be right. Brownback raised over $600,000 more than Davis did and at the end of the day, the polarization of Kansas will really kick in especially if Pat Roberts is on the ballot to help Brownback out. I'm not counting Davis out though and this race I would consider just as potentially winnable for Democrats as Georgia or South Carolina.

And seriously? Who misspells Kansas of all states? It's not like it's Mississippi, Connecticut or something.

Sebelius' father was a popular (Republican) figure in Kansas, which gave her a considerable advantage. Her opponent, Shallenburger, was also pretty weak and lacked proper funding and organization. Sebelius was liberal, but she made a name for herself by working with Governor Graves as Insurance Commissioner. Paul Davis has one of the most liberal voting records in the state - that's about all his record his. He's championed himself for years as a liberal, representing my city, Lawrence, which is one of the most liberal parts of the state. I think voters will see right through his pathetic attempt to look moderate and compromising.

Wan't Sebelius' father a democrat frfom Ohio who served as Governor for 1 term?

Yes

[tmthforu94]

You're right - I got her mixed with Docking. Ignorant me!

[IceSpear]

Is Kansas the Republican version of Illinois?

That being, overwhelmingly partisan state could end up dropping their very unpopular governor, but they'll probably survive anyway just based on party affiliation.

[morgieb]

Is Kansas the Republican version of Illinois?

That being, overwhelmingly partisan state could end up dropping their very unpopular governor, but they'll probably survive anyway just based on party affiliation.

Yeah, this is my thoughts. Though a lot of others are comparing it more to Hawaii.

[Tender Branson]

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Excellent.

[pbrower2a]

Now we get a good explanation for his low approval ratings.

News media do not play up politicians that they believe have ethical problems. I saw much the same with Blagojevich in Illinois.