Barely Democrat States
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  Barely Democrat States
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barfbag
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« on: September 17, 2013, 10:49:27 PM »

New Mexico and Nevada have voted the exact same way in pretty much every single presidential election in recent history and even before that were extremely similar. Lately, their trend has put them left of center, but this century overall they've averaged to be just left of center. Let's discuss these matters along with the rising Latino/Hispanic influence on their trends too.

Nevada
New Mexico
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2013, 11:42:03 AM »

One point to make is the Nevada Republican Party is awful. They have almost no organization or infastructure, compared to the Democrats where Harry Reid and others have been able to build a machine that brings out voters. The only thing the Republicans have going for them is that they have very likeable canidates in Sandoval, Heller and Heck. Even Heller almost lost to Berkley, who was an awful canidate. Any other canidate would have defeated Heller. Lastley the trends can't be good here especially if the Latino growth continues.   
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barfbag
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2013, 08:32:54 PM »

Their organization has been bad. We're never that good in the west.
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Flake
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2013, 12:59:54 AM »

So I've been slowly compiling a national map of voter registration by county, and I finished Nevada last week..... the Democratic Party there only has a lead in registration in three counties, Clark, Esmeralda, and Washoe; a very small lead in the latter two. The Republican Party can win there, they just need to turn out the vote from Lincoln County to Carson City.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2013, 10:10:08 AM »

So I've been slowly compiling a national map of voter registration by county, and I finished Nevada last week..... the Democratic Party there only has a lead in registration in three counties, Clark, Esmeralda, and Washoe; a very small lead in the latter two. The Republican Party can win there, they just need to turn out the vote from Lincoln County to Carson City.

The only county that matters in Nevada is Clark. 72.5% of the entire state population is in that county. All the Democrats need to do to win is to get over 53% in Clark county and keep Washoe close to even.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2013, 06:43:42 PM »

So I've been slowly compiling a national map of voter registration by county, and I finished Nevada last week..... the Democratic Party there only has a lead in registration in three counties, Clark, Esmeralda, and Washoe; a very small lead in the latter two. The Republican Party can win there, they just need to turn out the vote from Lincoln County to Carson City.

The only county that matters in Nevada is Clark. 72.5% of the entire state population is in that county. All the Democrats need to do to win is to get over 53% in Clark county and keep Washoe close to even.

If every Obama voter outside of Clark and Washoe counties had stayed home and not voted, Obama still would have won the state by over 20,000 votes.  There are just not enough available votes in the cow counties to make up much ground for Republicans. 
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barfbag
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2013, 07:32:57 PM »

You guys are both right. I think the 2008 housing market collapse gave a false impression of a leftward trend. It's center to center-left now but not out of reach.
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Smash255
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« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2013, 10:49:59 PM »

So you have Nevada and New Mexico as barely Democratic and VA has barely Republican??  Hmm, Bias much??
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2013, 11:28:44 PM »

So you have Nevada and New Mexico as barely Democratic and VA has barely Republican??  Hmm, Bias much??

Its mostly because he combines all the Bush elections and Obama elections, and to be fair, those states that you mentioned all trended hard left during Obama. He has states like Tennessee "Lean Republican" which I don't agree with either, which have trended hard right under Obama.
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barfbag
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2013, 03:38:09 AM »

So you have Nevada and New Mexico as barely Democratic and VA has barely Republican??  Hmm, Bias much??

In Nevada neither party can get their organizations going. Democrats do better there because of the Reid Machine. It also trended
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2013, 11:28:55 PM »

Calling New Mexico "barely democrat" is laughably absurd.

1) It went for Obama by about the same margin that South Carolina and Missouri went for Romney.

2) There is a very obvious trend given the state demographics. 
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Miles
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« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2013, 11:31:53 PM »

So I've been slowly compiling a national map of voter registration by county, and I finished Nevada last week..... the Democratic Party there only has a lead in registration in three counties, Clark, Esmeralda, and Washoe; a very small lead in the latter two. The Republican Party can win there, they just need to turn out the vote from Lincoln County to Carson City.

The only county that matters in Nevada is Clark. 72.5% of the entire state population is in that county. All the Democrats need to do to win is to get over 53% in Clark county and keep Washoe close to even.

This. NV's PVI isnt getting any more R (except if Sandoval is on the ticket) and the Ds are good as long as they hit those benchmarks.
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barfbag
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« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2013, 08:38:52 PM »

Calling New Mexico "barely democrat" is laughably absurd.

1) It went for Obama by about the same margin that South Carolina and Missouri went for Romney.

2) There is a very obvious trend given the state demographics. 

Yes there's a trend but we need to have a few elections before we actually change its category. Maybe I should've put New Hampshire in this category and Nevada in the toss up column in order to make "barely Democrat" sound more Democrat.
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