I could call Florida a bellwether state, but with all things being equal it would vote Republican.
Republicans are definitely much more organized there. They know that they need Florida more than the Democrats.
I can't believe Florida went for Obama. I've lived there and at the state level it's safe Republican.
Just like how some states can be competitive on the state level when it isn't competitive on the federal level the flip side can be true as well. Combine that with obscene gerrymandering and Cubans turning HARD against the GOP last year, there is your explanation.
I live there too! Hi!
But Republicans statewide generally do better than national elections, by a few percentage points. It isn't safe Republican but it is lean Republican, even though there are 500,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state itself which is really sad for the Florida Democratic Party.
