Post your Austrian Parliamentary Election PREDICTIONS here.

[Tender Branson]

Takes place this Sunday.

2008 result:

29.3% SPÖ (57 seats)
26.0% ÖVP (51 seats)
17.5% FPÖ (34 seats)
10.7% BZÖ (21 seats)
10.4% Greens (20 seats)
  2.1% LIF
  1.8% FRITZ
  0.8% KPÖ
  0.7% RETTÖ
  0.6% CPÖ
  0.1% Others

Total: 183 seats

Turnout: 78.8%

http://wahl08.bmi.gv.at

...

9 parties are running Austria-wide in this election:

* SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, BZÖ, Greens, Team Stronach, NEOS/LIF, Pirate Party, KPÖ

5 parties are running in some states only:

* CPÖ (in B, OÖ, Stmk, Vbg)
* The Change (in Vienna, OÖ)
* SLP (in Vienna)
* Men's Party (in Vbg)
* EU Exit Party (in Vbg)

Check the main thread for more information:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=165607.0

[Tender Branson]

The average of the latest polls might help you with your predictions:

26-28% SPÖ
22-25% ÖVP
19-21% FPÖ
13-16% Greens
    6-9% Team Stronach
    1-5% BZÖ
    1-4% NEOS
    0-2% Pirates
    0-1% KPÖ
    0-2% Others

[Tender Branson]

I think there are no more polls being released in the next days, so start predicting ...

[ERvND]

SPÖ: 26%
ÖVP: 22%
FPÖ: 22%
Greens: 14%
TS: 7%
NEOS/LIF: 3%
BZÖ: 3%
Pirates: 1%
KPÖ: 1%
Others: 1%

[DC Al Fine]

SPÖ: 25%
ÖVP: 23%
FPÖ: 20%
Greens: 14%
TS: 7%
NEOS/LIF: 4%
BZÖ: 4%
Pirates: 1%
KPÖ: 1%
Others: 1%

[Zuza]

SPÖ - 27.3%
ÖVP - 22.6%
FPÖ - 20.0%
Greens - 12.9%
Stronach - 5.1%
BZÖ - 4.1%
NEOS - 4.1%
KPÖ - 1.5%
Pirates - 1.3%
Others - 1.1%

[peterould]

OK, assuming there are no more polls ('cos if there are I will change my forecast based on better data!)

SPÖ - 26,62% = 52 Mandaten
ÖVP - 22,26% = 44 Mandaten
FPÖ - 21,98% = 43 Mandaten
Greens - 13,36% = 26 Mandaten
Stronach - 5,35% = 10 Mandaten
Neos - 4,30% = 8 Mandaten
BZÖ - 3,78%

What say I set up a webpage with all the predictions and I'll update it live to see who is best (Sum of the difference between prediction and outcome for all seven main parties, smallest total difference wins)? I'm off on a plane later on Sunday but could certainly manage it for first few hours.

[Tender Branson]

My final prediction:

25.3%  [-4.0%] SPÖ - 48 seats [-9]
22.0% [+4.5%] FPÖ - 41 seats [+7]
21.4%  [-4.6%] ÖVP - 40 seats [-11]
14.0% [+3.6%] Greens - 26 seats [+6]
  6.5% [+6.5%] Team Stronach - 12 seats [+12]
  4.3%  [-6.4%] BZÖ - 8 seats [-13]
  4.2% [+2.1%] NEOS/LIF - 8 seats [+8]
  1.0% [+1.0%] Pirates
  0.9% [+0.1%] KPÖ
  0.4% Others

Turnout: 75.4% [-3.4%]

...

NEOS and BZÖ gain at the expense of the Greens and the ÖVP, which leads to the situation that the FPÖ comes in 2nd.

[Tender Branson]

Prediction for my home state -> Salzburg:

24.5% ÖVP
22.5% FPÖ
20.5% SPÖ
16.0% Greens
  7.0% TS
  4.5% BZÖ
  3.5% NEOS
  1.0% Pirates
  0.5% KPÖ

Turnout: 75%

Prediction for my home district -> Zell am See:

25.5% ÖVP
24.5% SPÖ
21.0% FPÖ
12.0% Greens
  7.5% TS
  5.0% BZÖ
  3.0% NEOS
  1.0% Pirates
  0.5% KPÖ

Turnout: 76%

Prediction for my home city -> Zell am See:

28.0% SPÖ
22.0% FPÖ
20.0% ÖVP
13.0% Greens
  7.5% TS
  5.0% BZÖ
  3.0% NEOS
  1.0% Pirates
  0.5% KPÖ

Turnout: 65%

[mubar]

I haven't been able to follow this election even nearly as well as I wanted, so can't base these numbers in any serious analysis. I also realize that in Austria the last polls tend to give a quite accurate prediction of the final result, so some of my numbers are more like wishful thinking. Anyway:

SPÖ  28.2%
ÖVP  22.7%
FPÖ  18.1%
Grüne  15.6%
NEOS  4.8%
Stronach 4.4%
BZÖ  3.2%
KPÖ  1.7%
Piraten 0.9%
Others 0.4%

To support this kinds of claims, let's see. Both SPÖ and ÖVP have done relatively well in debates and considering that Austria has the lowest unemployment in Europe, one can't seriously accuse them of managing the country badly. Still, some of their former voters choose the more liberal alternatives, Greens and NEOS, giving these parties advantage. FPÖ and especially Stronach have been more like a farce in the debates, they're going to underperform the polls.

To see what I hope the post-election developments to be, just note that a result like this would, apart the continuation of SPÖVP, also allow a SPÖ-Greens-NEOS coalition

[jaichind]

I wish I spent more time on this but here is my

SPO                 26%
OVP                 23%
FFO                 21%
Greens            15%
Stronach           6%
NEOS                4%
BZO                  3%

[Tender Branson]

My Carinthia prediction (where the political map will look completely different after today):

32% SPÖ (+4)
19% FPÖ (+11)
16% ÖVP (+1)
12% Greens (+5)
  9% TS (+9)
  7% BZÖ (-32)
  3% NEOS (+3)
  1% Pirates (+1)
  1% KPÖ (nc)

Turnout: 78%

[palandio]

Hope this doesn't come to late:
SPÖ 26.0%
ÖVP 22.0%
FPÖ 21.5%
Grüne 13.5%
Stronach 7.0%
BZÖ 3.7%
NEOS 2.8%
Piraten 1.5%
KPÖ 1.0%
Others 1.0%

[ZuWo]

SPÖ 25.0%
ÖVP 21.0%
FPÖ 21.0%
Grüne 15.0%
Stronach 8.0%
BZÖ 3.0%
NEOS 4.0%
Piraten 1.0%
KPÖ 1.0%
Others 1.0%

[Leftbehind]

27% SPÖ
25% ÖVP
22% FPÖ
13% Grn
  7% TS
  2% BZÖ
  2% NEOS
  1% Pir
  1% KPÖ

Stab in the dark.

[Tender Branson]

Hope this doesn't come to late

No, you can still post your predictions for another 2.5 hours.