Portugal -(local elections, 29Sept.2013) Socialist Party primary, 29 Sept 2014

[Mogrovejo]

As I've never seen a Portugal thread and have been lurking for some time: next Sunday, 308 municipalities and 3092 parishes (down from 4259 due to a consolidation process prompted by the bailout program) will choose their political leaders for the next 4 years.

Process

Four years terms; three bodies/ballots, multi-candidate lists for each one, PR with D'Hondt method: municipal chambers, the executive body, with the top candidate of the most voted list becoming the mayor; municipal assemblies, the legislative body (very high correlation with the municipal chamber voting pattern and institutionally weak, mostly reduced to a checking/inspection role and up or down votes on the budget); parish assemblies, the lowest political unities - basically administrative subdivisions of the municipalities, meaningless in terms of political power/autonomy.

Independent lists (currently holding 7 municipalities) are allowed.The large majority of them result from interparty infighting though, "legitimate" independent candidacies are pretty rare at the municipal level albeit somewhat significant in parishes.

Candidates are typically chosen through a negotiation process involving the parties local, regional and national structures, the later having the last word (the main factor prompting many of the aforementioned "independent lists"). This cycle, the socialists (PS) adopted a hands-off policy, allowing the local structures to pick their candidates with little input from the national party. The communists are the exception, with candidates appointed by the central committee.

Context

National
Fairly unpopular center-right coalition government, in the middle of a mandate, the austerity/fiscal consolidation program negotiated with the IMF/EU troika and its economic consequences being the theme du jour. Current average of national polls shows 36% for the government parties, 55% for the left parlamientary opposition. The main opposition party is still weakened by their performance in the last government though and seems to have stabilized at a 35% threshold. Confidence on political institutions is at an all time low point, which suggests a low turnout.

Fiscal autonomy, incumbency bias, term limits
Portuguese municipalities have very little fiscal autonomy - or, more exactly, very little taxing autonomy, reduced to tweaking the top marginal corporate taxes rates, fees on water supply/waste management services and especially fees on the licensing of new housing construction (the municipalities collect it but the rate is defined centrally, which has lead to lax zoning regulations and dangerous relationships between local power and the real estate/construction business, often ending on the courts).

The statutory limits on borrowing were loose though; that combined with the notorious disregard of Portuguese voters for budget responsibility concept (three IMF bailouts in 30 years and the country never met the Eurozone 3% threshold on the budget deficit), resulted in widespread borrow'n'(over)spend policies at local level: many municipalities are on dire financial situation, several carrying debts that are multiple times larger than their annual revenues. Due to the disconnection between spending an taxing, some of those mayors are amongst the most popular in the country. Unsurprisingly, caciquism and patronage are more or less rampant and there's a very powerful incumbency bias, with municipalities being ruled by the same party, and in some cases by the same mayor, for the last 37 years. It also means that partisan and ideological factors are pretty meaningless in policy terms - it's virtually impossible to identify which is the ruling party by the policies followed by each municipality - even if they still play a role in the decision-making of many voters.

A new term limits law (3 terms) takes effect these elections and therefore many incumbent mayors won't be running. Uncertainty if candidates were merely barred from seeking re-election on the same municipality or the law was written with the intention of preventing them from carpetbagging to another one created an amusing havoc; the constitutional court, against the decision of most lower courts, eventually decided for the less strict interpretation a couple of weeks ago - although some of the contending candidates to the biggest municipalities were under that limbo (the parliament didn't pass a new law clarifying the former one because all the major parties had candidates in this situation but the idea of barring term-limited candidates from seeking office anywhere was more popular). I don't expect an incumbency bias weakening till the next cycle though and mostly due to the stricter borrowing limits + municipalities that overspent being forced to correct their balance sheets.

TV/media blackout and the Facebook fines
Due to the national election commission and the courts recently adopting a strict interpretation of a post revolutionary law mandating the media to give every candidacy "equal treatment", campaign coverage has been notably absent from televisions: as it's not viable to cover every candidacy as required by the CNE and the courts, giving them the exact same air time - including those that will get below 1% of the vote. Therefore, tv channels, including the state channel, decided to limit their coverage to national leaders campaign speeches (and editing out any mentions to local aspects) and the broadcast of generic pieces on the municipalities but without mentioning the candidates, parties or any horserace aspects. Debates without the inclusion of every list were also forbidden so only Porto's regional tv and a few regional radio stations organized them. Paid mail, phone calls and sms messages were also deemed illegal -as some lists have more money to campaign expenditures than others and that would be unfair and unequal -  and the CNE went as far as fining Facebook for allowing sponsored posts from candidacies (they're trying to figure out how to send FB the fine -  I wish I was making this up, but I'm not, try googling 'autarquicas facebook multa'). Even a live tv interview with the PM that was scheduled a few weeks ago was forbidden under the same rational of "equal treatment". Newspapers, websites and outdoors have escaped to this regulating fury, nobody really understands why. Rumours that any results showing some lists getting more votes than others would be invalidated because "equality!1!!" have proven to be unfounded so far. More seriously, this is another factor that should contribute to a lower turnout and likely hurts the government parties more as the media political coverage remains entirely focused on national politics.

Electoral swings on local elections relatively to past national elections:
at imgur[dot]com/5B4DmpK
(image by Pedro Magalhães/blog Margens de Erro)

Government parties tend to be penalized on local elections except when those happen at the start of the term. The government parties got 50% of the vote in the 2011 election and are polling at 35%, so a large swing similar to 1989 and 1993 could happen - especially with an unprecedented number of independent lists, many of them coming from the coalition political area, on the ballot.

Last local elections map:
at imgur[dot]com/Y7oVoWg

Albeit less obvious than normally, due to the good PS performance in the North (that they should replicate this time around), the traditional Portuguese voting pattern is still detectable: the north (dispersed land propriety, small industrial business, higher clerical influence),  Algarve (small landowners, tourism/business) and Madeira (a mix of the previous two) tending to vote right; the South (large farms/big industrial business -  agriculture/blue collar workers, plus stronger presence of public workers especially in the Lisbon area) tending to vote left; Açores being a swing region.

Results 2009
PSD - 37% (allocating 89% of the vote from coalition lists) - 139 mayors
PS - 38% - 132 mayors
PCP/PEV - 10% - 28 mayors
CDS/PP - 5% (allocating 9% of the vote from coalition lists) - 1 mayor
BE - 3% - 1 mayor

Polls
The wikipedia article has an updated table.

Sadly I'm not allowed to post links/images, so needed to adapt some stuff. I'll post quick write-ups on the parties competing, plus horserace analysis in the largest 5 or so cities in the next posts.

[Mogrovejo]

Major parties

PPD/PSD (Social Democratic Party) - together with the socialists one of the two major parties, currently the senior party in the government coalition; traditionally the largest party in local elections. A catch-all party since its origins as the alternative for those opposed to the far-left and Marxist parties in the aftermath of the revolution; strategically positioned between a PS that many saw as flirting too much with Marxism and a CDS that the the more secular and inter-classist PSD electorate saw as elitist and too close to the Church apparatus. Functionally it fills the role of the major center-right party but it's remained rather heterogeneous  ideologically and demographically, although always more reliant on a northern+islands, rural and small town base.

Elected 139 mayors in 2009, will run alone in 201 municipalities, as a coalition leading party in 103 and as a coalition junior partner in the remaining 4.

PS (Socialist Party) - a normal European socialist/social-democratic party (after the post-revolutionary period normalization; adopted a Third Way positioning in the late 80s, although keeping a tendency to go back to a more left-wing discourse when in opposition), it's also fairly heterogeneous demographically although it has become more reliant on public sector workers/pensioners in recent years.

It currently holds 132 municipalities; running in 303 municipalities + as the leading coalition party in the remaining one.


CDU (Unitarian Democrat Coalition) - Nominally a coalition, the CDU is PCP's (Communist Party) electoral banner, the other member being a fake/satellite green party (which could be described as the PCP arm for environment issues). Still a hard-line marxist-leninist party (at least nominally), the PCP has never embraced eurocommunism in the 70s/80s or post-Soviet Union reconstruction in the 90s, as "purists" have been able to rebuke successive waves of "renovators" since the late 80s. Nonetheless, besides the occasional outburst of support for the North Korean or Cuban regimes, the current public rhetoric is more of a left-wing populist party (price controls, more social spending, more government jobs, rigid labour laws, also less taxes though). Once the dominant party in the rural South and Lisbon's industrial belt (where they keep a loyal, if ageing electorate), they've been able to keep an important presence at the local level in those areas, in spite of a slow deterioration since the 90s. Dominates the unions, especially blue-collar unions.

Currently with 28 mayors (a number that they might improve, especially if the turnout is low), the CDU will present lists in 294 municipalities, not being present in 10.


CDS/PP (Democratic and Social Centre/People’s Party) - the third wheel of the "governmentality arch" (it's been the junior partner in government coalitions once with the PS and thrice with the PSD, including this one; has given parliamentary support to both parties' minority governments). Founded as a Christian Democrat party, it's been very prone to ideological and strategic (rather tactical) repositionnements throughout its existence, at some points claiming a perfectly centrist place between the PS and the PSD even though the daylight between those two parties has been basically non-existent for decades, going from the being the most pro-EU party to rivalling the communists in Euroscepticism in a couple of years. Always a party of barons, nowadays it's more of a vehicle to its leader, the populist and charismatic deputy-PM Paulo Portas and relies on an unlikely voting coalition of poor pensioners, farmers/fishermen and young professionals/yuppies. Has been lacking local implementation and structures to be a serious contender on local election for a couple of decades.

Currently has 1 municipality (safe hold), and will run alone in 139 municipalities, as the leading coalition party in 14 and as a junior coalition member in 87, not being present in 64 municipalities.


BE (Left Bloc) - a far-left party, product of a fusion of a trotskist, a maoist and an alter-globalist/new age party, joined by former communists and other far-left tribes. Founded at the start of the century, it rose quickly in popularity for the first decade, including overcoming the PCP as the main far-left party, due to a focus on social issues and a trendy, hip image, gaining support among teachers, students, urban youth and protest voters (and the journalist class). It's been in a decline in the last few years as economic issues became overwhelming predominant and they've become too similar to the PCP. Also affected by infighting between a faction that wanted to moderate the party in order to explore possible future government coalitions with the PS and the purists willing to keep the marxist/protest vote line; the later prevailed. Pretty much like the CDS, it lacks local implementation to compete in local elections.

They currently hold 1 municipality (amusingly, considering their animal rights stance, located in the bullfighting heartland, it fell on their lap when the popular incumbent was expelled from the PCP; safe hold) and will run in 111 municipalities alone and in 1 as the minor coalition party.

Small - and electorally meaningless - parties:

Right

MPT (Earth Party)- Right-wing greens, initially more of a centrist, ruralist, party, now more of an eco-libertarian party. Running alone in 8 municipalities and as minor coalition partners in 21.

PPM (Popular Monarchic Party) - Vaguely center-right (for Portuguese standards) monarchists, ignored or disliked by the vast majority of the monarchists. Running alone in 1 municipality, as major coalition partners in 3, as junior coalition partners in 16.

PNR (National Renovation Party) - Far-right nationalists (FN type, economically protectionist/statist). Running alone in 6 municipalities.

PPV (Pro-Life Portugal) - Pro-Life, single issue party. On the ballot in 1 municipality, as minor coalition partners in 3 others.

PND (New Democracy Party) - center-right populists, founded by a disgruntled former CDS leader, mostly a zombie party at this point. Running alone in 1 municipality, as minor coalition partners in 3 others.

Left

PCTP/MRRP (Communist Party of the Portuguese Workers) - Maoists, generally the largest party without parliamentary representation. Present in 27 municipalities.

PAN (Animal and Nature Party) - Greens/Animal Rights/New-Age party. Running in 12 municipalities.

PTP (Labour Portuguese Party) - Recently founded center-left party, running in their first (and likely last) local elections. They've made the ballot on 8 municipalities.

Independent lists

Independents currently hold 7 municipalities and are on the ballot in 87 these elections, doubling the numbers from four years ago. Two of their presumed safe holds are already lost as the lists were disqualified by the courts due to Thad McCotter situations. For the first time there are competitive independent lists on several large municipalities though, namely in Porto, Gaia, Matosinhos, Sintra and Oeiras.

-----

Coalitions happen on the right, involving the PSD and/or the CDS and/or one of the right small parties, excluding the nationalists that aren't considered polite company (no coalitions involve the PSD or the CDS and the pro-life party either). The single exception happens in Funchal, the capital of the autonomic region of Madeira, a PSD stronghold, where the PS leads a 8 party coalition that includes the BE, the PND, the MPT, the PTP and the PAN - they'll contend for the 2nd place with the CDS.

[Leftbehind]

Very useful posts. Shame to hear about BE's recent (relative) decline.

[Mogrovejo]

Half a hour till polls close in Açores and we have some projections; some quick summary of the race in the main municipalities:

Lisbon - Antonio Costa, the current mayor, shall be re-elected with an absolute majority - he's popular and Lisbon is populated by many public workers/pensioners and people who are more sensitive to national issues. Moreover, the PSD/CDS candidate, the term limited mayor of Sintra Fernando Seara, only started his campaign 2 weeks ago due to controversy on the term limits law (although that didn't stop other candidates in other situations from campaigning), which liquidated any chance he had of preventing an absolute majority. The far-left should have a good result, with the BE running his national leader as candidate for Mayor. Lisbon is still an interesting result to follow because if Costa is able to run up the score and the PS fails to meet the (high) expectations at a national level, then one should expect him to launch a challenge to the party leadership very soon. If not, he'll have to keep waiting. Safe PS.

Porto - the capital of north and the city of the secular, liberal, bourgeoisie, it's one of the most interesting races: on one side, Luis Filipe Menezes, the term limited Mayor of Gaia (the city across the river) and former PSD leader, representing the more populist PSD wing; on the other side, the right-wing independent candidate Rui Moreira, Porto's Chamber of Commerce president, who runs with the official support from the CDS and the unnoficial support from the current term limited Mayor, Rui Rio, who's a fierce Menezes' enemy and belongs to the technocratic, fiscally responsible, PSD wing. Menezes runs on his work in Gaia, where he's hugely popular and changed the face of the city with infrastructure investments; Moreira runs on the debt that Menezes accumulated in Gaia and Porto's sound fiscal health. The PS candidate is an uncharismatic university professor who would probably need the far-left parties to fall apart to be able to compete with his much more skilled opponents on the right. Although Menezes lead in all polls except one, I'd rate this a toss-up PSD vs Independent/CDS.

In Gaia, which is actually more populate than Porto, Menezes departure's created an identical situation, with Guilherme de Aguiar, a former municipal chamber member under Menezes, running as a center-right independent, representing Rio's faction - although all three main candidates, including the socialist, claim the heritage's of Menezes' management. The PS has a better candidate in here and the PSD a terrible one, which turned this into a PS vs Independent contest. Toss-up PS vs Independent.

Sintra, the second largest municipality, has another 3 way race, with yet again another center-right independent as a product of PSD's intra-party power struggles : the social-democrats picked to top their list the term-limited Mayor of Covilhã, a city in the interior, hundreds of kms away from Sintra, leading the current vice-mayor to launch an independent bid, claiming the mantle of the aforementioned Seara, now the candidate to Lisbon. The biggest beneficiary will likely be socialist candidate Basilio Horta (curiously a former CDS founder who ran the most openly right-wing campaign in the history of portuguese constitutional democracy in the 91 presidential against Mario Soares, the historical PS leader... how times change), an underwhelming candidate: but I don't see how the PS drops below 35% in a place like Sintra, a very diverse municipality that includes some of the wealthiest parishes in Portugal but also large working class suburbs as Queluz and Cacem, especially in this type of national environment. And unless we see a debacle from the PSD/CDS list, that should be enough to win. Expect another good showing by the PCP in here. Lean PS.

Braga will finally have their second democratically elected Mayor. The current one, Mesquita Machado, has hold power for 37 years, since the first democratic local elections. This will be a battle between the national climate (anti-government) and the local one (saturation with the socialists after 4 decades of power). The PSD candidate is running for the 3rd time and had two good showings against Machado in the past - losing by 3 and 0.5%. I think third time will be a charm and Braga will be the only PSD gain in major urban centers. Lean PSD/CDS.

[Mogrovejo]

Very useful posts. Shame to hear about BE's recent (relative) decline.

They'll have another opportunity to grow once the PS regains the government and, assuming no Euro exit, is forced to adopt the same type of policies that are unpopular now. But their growth model, based on social issues, is exhausted: abortion and ssm are legalized, drugs are more or less decriminalized (and if anything it has become a liability). Stuff like environment, feminism, racism or animal rights just aren't the kind that can give them traction, even if the economy improves. Too esoteric, too irrelevant, too immaterial. Very few people will vote on that and parties platforms are more or less identical, so they'd need to go very extreme to gain separation. I think the "renovators" were strategically right and that to have a sustainable future they'll have to become the "Left's CDS": a party that is willing to enter coalitions with the PS and assume government responsibilities. They can package themselves as the "left conscience" of a PS lead government or something. Otherwise, they'll just keep competing with the communists for the far-left votes and the PCP has huge structural advantages, much higher membership, the unions, a very loyal core electorate and a much better grasp on how to play the economic populism game. Of course, there are also good reasons for a marxists and socialists who see the PS as too moderate to refuse the PCP as an acceptable party to represent them - hence why the BE exists - and there's more to politics than elections and having influence, but as an electoral strategy that's probably a dead end.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Here you can see live coverage form RTP:
http://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtp1

Here you can see the results:
http://autarquicas2013.mj.pt/index.html

[Mogrovejo]

Some of the potential gains/losses:

CDS and BE won't win or lose any municipality.

CDU should have a good result. Might lose two -Constancia and Nisa in the Tejo valley, the northern limit of their implementation- but might win back a few municipalities in Alentejo: Evora, Grandola, Alcacer, Monforte, Mourão, even Beja although that's unlikely. They might also come close in Loures, a suburb west of Lisbon. All those from the PS.

The PS will get one of their best results ever. Their only big municipalities in risk are Evora (to the PCP), Braga and Guarda (to the PS). On the other hand, they can win in Sintra, Portalegre, Gaia and have good shots at Faro, Coimbra, Covilhã and even Vila Real, a historical PSD stronghold in the nothernt interior. A net gain of 10 mayors isn't out of the question although it's not clear if the normally swing centrist electorate has already forgiven the socialists.

The PSD will be severely punished in cities and is defending at least 30 municipalities. Porto, Coimbra, Gaia, Sintra, Faro, Vila Real, Portalegre, Tomar -if you see them losing most of these, it'll be a bad night for PSD. If they're also losing Bragança, Gouveia and those northern rural municipalities like Vila Pouca de Aguiar or Trancoso, a terrible one.

To follow the results:
(thanks for posting the links Hans, saved me some trouble!)

[Leftbehind]

Feel free to update us English-speaking as the results come in.

[Mogrovejo]

First projections:

Rui Moreira (Ind with CDS support) wins in Porto. Menezes might come in third (hopefully this finishes his political career)

Costa holds Lisboa with more than 20% of the votes. The PSD will have their worst result ever in Lisbon, most likely. If this pattern is replicated in other urban centers, this can be a bloodbath.

PS conquers Gaia, with a larger advantage than expected. PSD confirms the 3rd place, well behind the independent right-wing candidate.

In Sintra, too close to call between the independent and the PS. Still another sign of the weakness of the government parties. They probably should have run independents everywhere.

[Mogrovejo]

PSD hegemony in Madeira is broken: they've lost 3 municipalities, two more in danger. And the CDS actually wins one, which means they doubled the number of mayors. Anyway, you know it's a historically bad night for the oranges when they lose anything at all in Madeira.

Independent candidates may get 4 of out 11 largest municipalities: Porto (from the PSD), Oeiras (hold), Matosinhos (from the PS  first time they lose this), maybe Sintra (PSD).

First parish out of Braga, the PSD/CDS candidate is well above his 2009 baseline. Braga can be PSD's silver lining tonight.

In Lisbon, the right might fall below 25%. Their worst results since the first elections: 34%. PS with their best result ever. Not sure if the BE will make the municipal chamber. Pretty bad considering it's their leader.

As I predicted, this is going to be a good night for the CDU who's going to win back from the PS quite a few municipalities in Alentejo.

[Hans-im-Glück]

It is a terrible night for the PSD :-D Maybe they gain Braga, but this doesn't make their Feelings better.

The PS is the winner, but with some dark Points. They are in danger to lose Braga and Guarda. Evora will go to the PCP

Now I will wait for the results of my (Portuguese) hometown (Silves) ;-)

[Mogrovejo]

BE's night is getting almost as bad as PSD's: they lost their only municipality, Salvaterra de Magos. I talked with the 2nd on their list there a month ago and they were expecting to retain an absolute majority. If their leader also fails to make the chamber in Lisbon, this is a really bad night for them, especially vis-a-vis a spectacular PCP performance.

PCP not only wins Evora but also Beja. Alentejo will be red as if it's 1991 again.

Yeah, the PS will lose 4 district capitals: Beja, Évora, Braga e Guarda plus a historical stronghold like Matosinhos. Still, they'll become the major local party by a healthy margin after tonight.

PS- CDU won Silves. Huge night for them. By the way, I underrated the immediate impact of the term limit law when combined with the national climate. Lots of municipalities with term limited mayors swinging.

pps - PSD in danger of losing Funchal to the rainbow coalition. Out of the 11 Madeira municipalities, they lost 5 or 6 tonight.

[Hans-im-Glück]

PS- CDU won Silves. Huge night for them. By the way, I underrated the immediate impact of the term limit law when combined with the national climate. Lots of municipalities with term limited mayors swinging.
.

Is this true? all Internet sources have no result

Yeah

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MdT8SuR8PI

[Mogrovejo]

Yeps, got it from a local source on twitter.

Some of the potential gains/losses:

CDS and BE won't win or lose any municipality.

The CDS actually won 2 (both rural municipalities in the islands, hard to have a grasp of what's happening there) now having 3. BE lost the one they had.

And it's confirmed: PSD loses Funchal. From 11/11 to 5/11.

CDU should have a good result. Might lose two -Constancia and Nisa in the Tejo valley, the northern limit of their implementation- but might win back a few municipalities in Alentejo: Evora, Grandola, Alcacer, Monforte, Mourão, even Beja although that's unlikely. They might also come close in Loures, a suburb west of Lisbon. All those from the PS.

They won all of those, including Loures, except Mourão with Nisa still to be called. More than a few dark points for the PS: Matosinhos, Loures, Beja, Évora, Braga, Guarda. Good result overall but the anti-incumbent effect worked against them in urban centers.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Yeps, got it from a local source on twitter.
 

I hope this is the result. I want to call my relatives, but they don' t go to the phone but maybe they are celebrating

[Mogrovejo]

Yeps, got it from a local source on twitter.
 

I hope this is the result. I want to call my relatives, but they don' t go to the phone but maybe they are celebrating

It is. They won big in Messines -2300 votes vs 850 PS vs 500 PSD- and Silves' parish -1800 votes vs 1000 PS vs 1000 PSD. The PSD wasn't able to close the gap in the rest of the municipality.

The CDS will end the night with at least 5 mayors: they win Albergaria and Vale de Cambra. Surprisingly good night for them in terms of municipality wins.  This is the first time the CDS wins more municipalities than they lose since... ever.


ps - First hand results for Silves:
CDU - 38%
PSD - 30%
PS - 28%
BE - 2%

No absolute majority.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Yeps, got it from a local source on twitter.
 

I hope this is the result. I want to call my relatives, but they don' t go to the phone but maybe they are celebrating

It is. They won big in Messines -2300 votes vs 850 PS vs 500 PSD- and Silves' parish -1800 votes vs 1000 PS vs 1000 PSD. The PSD wasn't able to close the gap in the rest of the municipality.
 

wow

My neighbortown Lagoa was a gain for the PS and the result for Portimao was very curious :-) A win for the PS, but what a bad one

[Mogrovejo]

Portimão is explained by local factors: two PS "vereadores"; including the vice-mayor, were arrested for corruption a couple of months ago and there's an ongoing investigation (I suspect that if it's exhaustive enough, pretty much the entire PS leadership for the past 2 decades will end up in jail, including the mayor). PS would have lost Portimão if PSD and CDS had agreed on a coalition there.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Portimão is explained by local factors: two PS "vereadores"; including the vice-mayor, were arrested for corruption a couple of months ago and there's an ongoing investigation (I suspect that if it's exhaustive enough, pretty much the entire PS leadership for the past 2 decades will end up in jail, including the mayor). PS would have lost Portimão if PSD and CDS had agreed on a coalition there.

I know this Story normally all of the PS must be in prison

[SPQR]

"Due to the national election commission and the courts recently adopting a strict interpretation of a post revolutionary law mandating the media to give every candidacy "equal treatment", campaign coverage has been notably absent from televisions: as it's not viable to cover every candidacy as required by the CNE and the courts, giving them the exact same air time - including those that will get below 1% of the vote. Therefore, tv channels, including the state channel, decided to limit their coverage to national leaders campaign speeches (and editing out any mentions to local aspects) and the broadcast of generic pieces on the municipalities but without mentioning the candidates, parties or any horserace aspects. Debates without the inclusion of every list were also forbidden so only Porto's regional tv and a few regional radio stations organized them. Paid mail, phone calls and sms messages were also deemed illegal -as some lists have more money to campaign expenditures than others and that would be unfair and unequal -  and the CNE went as far as fining Facebook for allowing sponsored posts from candidacies (they're trying to figure out how to send FB the fine -  I wish I was making this up, but I'm not, try googling 'autarquicas facebook multa'). Even a live tv interview with the PM that was scheduled a few weeks ago was forbidden under the same rational of "equal treatment". "




Ahahahah couldn't believe it when I first read it...

[RodPresident]

Why did the PNR (Portugal's Golden Dawn) fail to get traction at municipal elections?

[DC Al Fine]

"Due to the national election commission and the courts recently adopting a strict interpretation of a post revolutionary law mandating the media to give every candidacy "equal treatment", campaign coverage has been notably absent from televisions: as it's not viable to cover every candidacy as required by the CNE and the courts, giving them the exact same air time - including those that will get below 1% of the vote. Therefore, tv channels, including the state channel, decided to limit their coverage to national leaders campaign speeches (and editing out any mentions to local aspects) and the broadcast of generic pieces on the municipalities but without mentioning the candidates, parties or any horserace aspects. Debates without the inclusion of every list were also forbidden so only Porto's regional tv and a few regional radio stations organized them. Paid mail, phone calls and sms messages were also deemed illegal -as some lists have more money to campaign expenditures than others and that would be unfair and unequal -  and the CNE went as far as fining Facebook for allowing sponsored posts from candidacies (they're trying to figure out how to send FB the fine -  I wish I was making this up, but I'm not, try googling 'autarquicas facebook multa'). Even a live tv interview with the PM that was scheduled a few weeks ago was forbidden under the same rational of "equal treatment". "

Ahahahah couldn't believe it when I first read it...

How on earth do they campaign? Does the Prime Minister spend the whole time knocking on doors?

[Hans-im-Glück]

Why did the PNR (Portugal's Golden Dawn) fail to get traction at municipal elections?

The PNR is a Fascist joke Party. I do not think there are many take this party seriously.

Since the Revolution 1974 no Fascist Party had a Chance to win something and I hope this will be forever.

I am proud that this kind parties have no chance in Portugal, because in this economic crisis you see in other countries the opposite.

[Mogrovejo]

I thought that I had written a wrap-up post about the local elections but apparently not. Anyway, to sum up:

The PS had their best result ever in terms of municipalities won (149) albeit not in terms of voting percentage (36%) or voting totals - where they actually declined from 2009. They also lost some important cities and end up short of absolute majorities in most of the big cities where they won. In the end, they end up under-performing relatively to expectations and it was a bit of  pyrrhic victory - and the catalyst for today’s event.

The PSD had, as expected, a disastrous result, declining to 106 municipalities. Using the same 89/9/2 (PSD/CDS/minor parties) allocation percentages for coalitions used in the OP, they get to 31% - which ends up being in line with past results of government parties in mid term locals.

The CDU had a very good night with a net gain of 6 municipalities and now standing at 34. Their performance was a bit inflated by the lower turnout levels and the surge in blank/null votes as the increase in voting total is far from meaningful. Basically they benefited from the loyalty and high turnout levels of their electorate.

Oddly enough, the CDS/PP, junior party in the government coalition, had a very good result, at least in terms of municipalities won - jumping from 1 to 5, the first time ever they had a net gain. As a bonus, the independent list they supported in Porto won handily. They performed very well wherever they ran alone - extrapolating it’d give them a double digit national result, although this observation is skewed by the fact they were able to choose where to run alone or in coalition.

The BE had another debacle, doing nothing to halt their decline - they lost their only municipality and were wiped out of local representation in most of the country (from 253 municipal assembly members to 100). Since then the party has become increasingly fragmented but I’ll try to get back at that later on.

The biggest winners of the elections were non-party groups though:

- Independent candidates increased their voting share from 4% to 6.8% and now hold 13 municipalities, including the 2nd largest city in the country, vs 7. They also become the 3rd political force at the parish level, with 342 parishes now being controlled by non-partisan groups.

- Blank and rejected voting ballots went up from 3% in 2009 to 6.82% (in raw votes, 165K to 340K). This and abstention (turnout declined from 59% to 52%) were the voters choice to express their dissatisfaction.

Here’s a map for those interested:
http://imgur.com/R1rJXOi

I voted in my small hometown (where I keep registration just because): CDS for mayor, CDU for municipal assembly and PSD for the parish assembly. The PS was the only other party running and won all of them, which means I have the dubious achievement of voting for every losing party in a single election (by merely voting for my actual preferences).

I'll address the PS primaries in my next post.

[Mogrovejo]

As I wrote in the local elections preview:

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Even though their local elections result might have just met expectations (although by very little), it was still underwhelming. That combined with another underwhelming victory in the European and, perhaps more importantly, public polls showing the government coalition creeping up and either closing the gap or actually leading, prompted an assault to the leadership from Costa, which, after a long and often silly intraparty debate (PS internal rules didn’t offer any statutory avenue for a party leadership change absent the consent of the leader), produced today’s events: the first time a Portuguese party picks its leader through open (or maybe semi-open?) primaries.

Technically today’s primary will elect the PS’ “Prime-Minister candidate” although Seguro has agreed to step down from the party leadership if he loses and call a party congress that will elect Costa as the leader (secretary-general is the nomenclature).

There are 240,000 eligible voters - circa 90,000 PS members and 150,000 voters who registered to vote as sympathizers/supporters. The registration process took a handful of weeks and every Portuguese citizen 18 yo or older who wasn't a member of another party was able to register.

There are two candidates:

António José Seguro, the incumbent leader. A former Secretary of State for Youth and later Deputy Minister (basically the PM chief of staff) in Antonio Guterres government in the 90s, he spent most of the José Socrates era as a MEP and a backbencher in the national parliament (and doing commentary on the media). That allowed him to present himself as a fresh face after Socrates heavy defeat in 2010, without ties to a very unpopular government and leadership. Things haven't exactly gone well for him since then though: he's totally devoid of charisma and is seen as a weak, fumbling, figure. Event though he conducted the PS to two electoral victories, that seemed more of a product of a favourable national environment than of his leadership skills. The PS seems stuck at 35% at the polls (and have recently declined to the low 30s) and most party members and analysts find that unimpressive and ultimately not enough to stop an electoral victory for the coalition next year.

António Costa, the challenger, is the Mayor of Lisbon. He was a Minister of Parliamentary affairs and Minister of Justice in the Guterres government, gaining a reputation as a law&order guy in the later position - promoting harsher sentences, more power to public persecutors, etc, which made him popular (think of Valls, for example); then moving to the European parliament in the later stages of the government (when it became more unpopular). He then served as Minister of Interior for a couple of years under Socrates but jumped ship to Lisbon very quickly, so he isn't exactly tainted. As a Mayor, he's benefited from the added revenue of a major public estate sale, which allowed him to balance the budget while keeping spending at fairly high (and unsustainable in the long-run levels). As a testimony to his political acumen, he might once again be jumping of a sinking ship at the right time. He's also the brother of the most powerful political journalist in the country and a participant in the most popular political debate tv show in the country, stuff that he's leveraged into pretty decent favorables.

This might be one of the most issue-free elections I can remember. There is no ideological divide between the two - the only policy issue that nurture some disagreement was a Seguro's proposal to reduce the number of members of parliament to 181 (that Costa, somewhat strangely, refuted by saying it was plot to favour the PSD and the right). Therefore the campaign has been quite personal, at times a bit nasty. Basically, it amounted to Costa reminding everyone he's more popular than Seguro and Seguro whining about Costa betraying him. There were 3 tv debates, all of them quite embarrassing to watch.


There are no polls - as pollsters had no way of polling eligible voters - but polls of "PS voters" have suggested a Costa victory by a margin varying between 10 and 30%. I think Costa will win easily, 60-40 or more, basically due to socialists seeing him as the only one of the two that can lead them to a victory in the general elections.

Results can be followed here:
https://www.psprimarias2014.pt/