If Florida starts leaning Democrat, what next for GOP?

[Non Swing Voter]

what's their strategy at that point?

[Flake]

what's their strategy at that point?

ahahahahaHAHAHAAHAHAHA
I guess they start hoping that the Mideast starts trending Republican, I mean Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio combined equals Florida plus New Mexico, if they can't win Florida, in this current environment, they can't win.

[DS0816]

I haven't done enough research. But I'm suspecting, election after election, that about 25 percent of states which carry for a prevailing presidential candidate will perform [at least somewhat] like a bellwether. That is where Florida is at. If this state continues to be a bellwether but starts tilting Democratic within that bellwether status, we are going to be in for landslide presidential elections favoring Team Blue.

[old timey villain]

Florida is interesting.

It seems that whenever one demographic in the state swings to the Democrat, another group swings Republican, and vice versa. Florida's large minority population swung to Obama big time in 2012 but that was coupled with an equally large swing of its senior citizens to Romney. Contrast that to 2000 when Gore did well with Seniors while Bush picked up some Hispanic support.

At this point, I'm not ready to say which way Florida will lean in the future. But if it does start to lean left, the Republicans will have to work really hard to win the Midwest. Ohio and Wisconsin's electoral votes would make up for the loss of Florida.

[Person Man]

Florida is interesting.

It seems that whenever one demographic in the state swings to the Democrat, another group swings Republican, and vice versa. Florida's large minority population swung to Obama big time in 2012 but that was coupled with an equally large swing of its senior citizens to Romney. Contrast that to 2000 when Gore did well with Seniors while Bush picked up some Hispanic support.

At this point, I'm not ready to say which way Florida will lean in the future. But if it does start to lean left, the Republicans will have to work really hard to win the Midwest. Ohio and Wisconsin's electoral votes would make up for the loss of Florida.

I disagree that they'd make up for Florida, because the GOP nominee (under the current demographics, etc) needs both Ohio and Florida to win an election. I'm thinking they'd have to hope Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota start trending their way to make up for a loss of Florida. Keep in mind VA is concerning as well, and NC might be heading in that direction in the future, and I've heard chatter that the GOP needs to work really hard to swing Pennsylvania to make up for Virginia.

EDIT: I didn't mean they needed PA, MI, WI, and MN to trend their way all to make up for Florida, but I'm thinking if VA, NC, and FL become out of reach (which I don't think they will within the next few cycles at least), then they may have to look to the upper midwest.

Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania help Republicans in the midterms. It would seem in an Obamaesque victory a Republican would win back everything Bush ever won but New Mexico and finally pick off Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Maybe Minnesota and Michigan.

[Vosem]

...if California starts leaning GOP, what's next for the Democrats?

You have to provide some detail on why this shift would occur; otherwise it's absolutely a meaningless question.

[ElectionsGuy]

If Florida seriously becomes left of the country, republicans do have options. By Florida trending more democrat, in return another state must trend equally as republican. If enough "Lean D" states like Wisconsin, Iowa, and Pennsylvania trend republican enough to go republican in an election (which would also take the republican to do good enough) then it could effectively make up for Florida.

Or, what can happen is what has happened before, where a state that republicans need (like Virginia or North Carolina) trends democrat, but in return safe GOP states trend more republican, like Kentucky, Tennessee, Oklahoma, etc. If THAT happens again then it will be seriously considered that the GOP has a massive electoral problem. That's what they should try to avoid happening.

[old timey villain]

The problem is how do Republicans win Pennsylvania and the midwest?

I used to think that it was simply an issue of race. If Republicans can do so well with working class whites in the south, then why not a state like Ohio or Wisconsin or Minnesota as well? But now I think it's also a question of values. The Republicans have tailored their message to resonate exceptionally well with white southerners, who are largely religious, conservative, traditional and very conscious of race. It turns out that platform actually doesn't mesh that well with midwestern values. The midwest isn't as cosmopolitan or liberal as NY, SF or LA but it's much less conservative than the south.

So the GOP will probably have to tone back the rhetoric on social issues if it really wants to win up there.

[greenforest32]

If enough "Lean D" states like Wisconsin, Iowa, and Pennsylvania trend republican enough to go republican in an election (which would also take the republican to do good enough) then it could effectively make up for Florida.

That's quite a tall order and the parties don't have equal positions in the Electoral College:

^^ all that (MN, WI, IA, OH, PA) and it's just 270R-268D with their victory being ruined if Democrats pick up another state like North Carolina. Florida is a huge deal.

[ElectionsGuy]

Florida is a huge deal.

It is, but I believe it will remain center-right. It has never been left-leaning in modern history. If republicans get the white vote out of Florida that they got in 2012 and the Hispanic vote they got in 2004 (or even 2008) they have the state easily. 2012 was somewhat of a weird election in a way due to very poor GOP Hispanic vote. If Florida does become an issue though, then the GOP is suffering serious illnesses, similar to democrat illnesses in the 80's.

[Person Man]

Florida is a huge deal.

It is, but I believe it will remain center-right. It has never been left-leaning in modern history. If republicans get the white vote out of Florida that they got in 2012 and the Hispanic vote they got in 2004 (or even 2008) they have the state easily. 2012 was somewhat of a weird election in a way due to very poor GOP Hispanic vote. If Florida does become an issue though, then the GOP is suffering serious illnesses, similar to democrat illnesses in the 80's.

And they'll finally have to go to the TEAParty and tell them that "they do not deliver" and instead go back to a Rovian playbook where deficits do not matter and that immigrants are OK if they don't like gay people. The same way that Democrats had to initially tell the McGoverns and Mondales that until they could get more voters out, they would have to settle for the Clintons and Gores.

[sg0508]

Then the GOP is going to have to capitalize on its chance to win the midwest, which has been there for the pickings for a decade now because if FL leans democratic, then it's near impossible for the GOP (at this time) to reach 270 w/o several midwestern states.  Unfortunately, with the state of MI getting poorer by the minute, it's near out of reach now for the GOP.  MN should have been breeding ground for the GOP, but they can't win there either and the democrats are now stronger statewide. 

The thing about FL that is still in the GOP's favor is that the statewide democratic party doesn't appear to be very organized and strong.  The statewide GOP is in better shape.  Rick Scott for example, may actually win a second term next year due to the democrats' statewide problems.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The problem for the Dems in Florida was Bush on the ballot. Once there wasn't any Bush because of their liberal stance on immigration, although it isn't a tipping point state, Dems have an equal chance of including it in their Obamaesque coalition.

[Skill and Chance]

Florida is a huge deal.

It is, but I believe it will remain center-right. It has never been left-leaning in modern history. If republicans get the white vote out of Florida that they got in 2012 and the Hispanic vote they got in 2004 (or even 2008) they have the state easily. 2012 was somewhat of a weird election in a way due to very poor GOP Hispanic vote. If Florida does become an issue though, then the GOP is suffering serious illnesses, similar to democrat illnesses in the 80's.

The thing is, it's almost impossible to imagine the 2016 Democrat not having more appeal to white seniors in FL than Obama.  If Dems can get back to Kerry numbers with them and sustain the swing with the Hispanic electorate, Florida would be a New England level of blue.  Look at Hillary's polling here- she clearly polls better in FL than nationwide.  Even if 2012 numbers with white voters are the new normal, Florida will be majority-minority by the early 2020's.  In light of the substantial non-Southern population, the Dem floor with white voters is likely well over 30% here, which means long term problems for the GOP are almost inevitable.   

[DS0816]

@ http://miami.cbslocal.com/2013/09/28/florida-among-states-looking-to-tighten-voting-rules/

[opebo]

@ http://miami.cbslocal.com/2013/09/28/florida-among-states-looking-to-tighten-voting-rules/

I bet they are.  However, death is on our side.

[Non Swing Voter]

...if California starts leaning GOP, what's next for the Democrats?

You have to provide some detail on why this shift would occur; otherwise it's absolutely a meaningless question.

I'm not even going to dignify this absurd response.

[ElectionsGuy]

...if California starts leaning GOP, what's next for the Democrats?

You have to provide some detail on why this shift would occur; otherwise it's absolutely a meaningless question.

I'm not even going to dignify this absurd response.

Why is it absurd? Pennsylvania is just as D-leaning as Florida is R-leaning and you guys aren't talking about that. Giving in some info on demographics and key political/cultural shifts would definitely be helpful. You guys won two presidential elections in a row (!) and your talking about speculation of Florida becoming a blue state? Florida really as no real trend, and it has always been 2-5 points more conservative than the country in the last 12 years. I already explained what republicans could do in my above post, but Vosem is right. Playing the "what-if" game without any real explanation is sort of pointless.

[Skill and Chance]

...if California starts leaning GOP, what's next for the Democrats?

You have to provide some detail on why this shift would occur; otherwise it's absolutely a meaningless question.

I'm not even going to dignify this absurd response.

Why is it absurd? Pennsylvania is just as D-leaning as Florida is R-leaning and you guys aren't talking about that. Giving in some info on demographics and key political/cultural shifts would definitely be helpful. You guys won two presidential elections in a row (!) and your talking about speculation of Florida becoming a blue state? Florida really as no real trend, and it has always been 2-5 points more conservative than the country in the last 12 years. I already explained what republicans could do in my above post, but Vosem is right. Playing the "what-if" game without any real explanation is sort of pointless.

I, for one, do believe that PA will be R+low by the 2020's.  It could even happen next cycle with the right candidates.

[PolitiJunkie]

...if California starts leaning GOP, what's next for the Democrats?

You have to provide some detail on why this shift would occur; otherwise it's absolutely a meaningless question.

I'm not even going to dignify this absurd response.

Why is it absurd? Pennsylvania is just as D-leaning as Florida is R-leaning and you guys aren't talking about that. Giving in some info on demographics and key political/cultural shifts would definitely be helpful. You guys won two presidential elections in a row (!) and your talking about speculation of Florida becoming a blue state? Florida really as no real trend, and it has always been 2-5 points more conservative than the country in the last 12 years. I already explained what republicans could do in my above post, but Vosem is right. Playing the "what-if" game without any real explanation is sort of pointless.

I, for one, do believe that PA will be R+low by the 2020's.  It could even happen next cycle with the right candidates.

Yeah, the fact that the heavily Democratic areas of Pennsylvania are increasing in population while the heavily Republican areas of Pennsylvania are decreasing in population, and the Republicans seem to be much better at energizing their existing base rather than attracting literally any new voters, is going to be a big help in giving Pennsylvania a Republican PVI.

[ElectionsGuy]

...if California starts leaning GOP, what's next for the Democrats?

You have to provide some detail on why this shift would occur; otherwise it's absolutely a meaningless question.

I'm not even going to dignify this absurd response.

Why is it absurd? Pennsylvania is just as D-leaning as Florida is R-leaning and you guys aren't talking about that. Giving in some info on demographics and key political/cultural shifts would definitely be helpful. You guys won two presidential elections in a row (!) and your talking about speculation of Florida becoming a blue state? Florida really as no real trend, and it has always been 2-5 points more conservative than the country in the last 12 years. I already explained what republicans could do in my above post, but Vosem is right. Playing the "what-if" game without any real explanation is sort of pointless.

I, for one, do believe that PA will be R+low by the 2020's.  It could even happen next cycle with the right candidates.

Interesting, I am not implying that it will by any means and I don't think it will. I just wanted to compare it to Florida as some people tend to ignore Pennsylvania and move on with their lives. I just haven't heard many conservatives say "What happens when the democrats lose PA?". And to defend any threat against Pennsylvania, liberals say "Its never leaned republican since x (1948)". Well it turns out to be that Florida hasn't leaned democrat since the days of reconstruction in 1968, almost the same kind of situation, and to be fair the civil rights act heavily altered voting in the south, so they're incomparable. Yet some people seem convinced that Florida will change due to shifts of the electorate and Pennsylvania won't.

All I'm saying is that some people are too focused on demographic and voting changes that favored their party in the 2012 election that they would rather focus on the republican party's fate than think within reasonable means.

[IceSpear]

On that note...

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 4h

Hillary beats Ted Cruz by 18 points in a hypothetical match up in Florida

I guess Cruz just isn't conservative enough.

[opebo]

FL and PA are both moving D, guys.  FL faster, PA slower (and the latter masked recently by racism).

[DS0816]

...if California starts leaning GOP, what's next for the Democrats?

You have to provide some detail on why this shift would occur; otherwise it's absolutely a meaningless question.

I'm not even going to dignify this absurd response.

Why is it absurd? Pennsylvania is just as D-leaning as Florida is R-leaning and you guys aren't talking about that. Giving in some info on demographics and key political/cultural shifts would definitely be helpful. You guys won two presidential elections in a row (!) and your talking about speculation of Florida becoming a blue state? Florida really as no real trend, and it has always been 2-5 points more conservative than the country in the last 12 years. I already explained what republicans could do in my above post, but Vosem is right. Playing the "what-if" game without any real explanation is sort of pointless.

I, for one, do believe that PA will be R+low by the 2020's.  It could even happen next cycle with the right candidates.

Interesting, I am not implying that it will by any means and I don't think it will. I just wanted to compare it to Florida as some people tend to ignore Pennsylvania and move on with their lives. I just haven't heard many conservatives say "What happens when the democrats lose PA?". And to defend any threat against Pennsylvania, liberals say "Its never leaned republican since x (1948)". Well it turns out to be that Florida hasn't leaned democrat since the days of reconstruction in 1968, almost the same kind of situation, and to be fair the civil rights act heavily altered voting in the south, so they're incomparable. Yet some people seem convinced that Florida will change due to shifts of the electorate and Pennsylvania won't.

All I'm saying is that some people are too focused on demographic and voting changes that favored their party in the 2012 election that they would rather focus on the republican party's fate than think within reasonable means.

Your concerns are noted.

I've also noted the Republicans' presidential performances in Pennsylvania, as you mentioned, and I'm sticking with what I've either implied or stated outright: A Republican isn't presidential candidate is not going to carry Pennsylvania unless he's been elected and won by a substantial national margin. The R+2.46 by George W. Bush in 2004, the only "+" for Team Red since after the 1980s, isn't enough to bring in the Keystone State. Also, the fact that the base of today's Republican Party is in the Old Confederacy … it's not encouraging, realistically, for The Republicans Who Want Pennsylvania Oh-So-Badly.

As for Florida: I've noted it's a bellwether state performing within five percentage points of the national margin in every election since 1996. It is in sync with king-making (or queen-making) bellwether Ohio (whose margins have been within five percentage points since its unbroken streak of carrying for all winners date back to 1964). The general statements about Florida being a Republican state (and "center right") are asinine. And I'm not on board to say it is generally a Democratic state. But I have stated that we are in a realignment presidential period favoring the Democrats. So, there is plenty of reason for those who prefer the Democrats to feel encouraged.

[ElectionsGuy]

...if California starts leaning GOP, what's next for the Democrats?

You have to provide some detail on why this shift would occur; otherwise it's absolutely a meaningless question.

I'm not even going to dignify this absurd response.

Why is it absurd? Pennsylvania is just as D-leaning as Florida is R-leaning and you guys aren't talking about that. Giving in some info on demographics and key political/cultural shifts would definitely be helpful. You guys won two presidential elections in a row (!) and your talking about speculation of Florida becoming a blue state? Florida really as no real trend, and it has always been 2-5 points more conservative than the country in the last 12 years. I already explained what republicans could do in my above post, but Vosem is right. Playing the "what-if" game without any real explanation is sort of pointless.

I, for one, do believe that PA will be R+low by the 2020's.  It could even happen next cycle with the right candidates.

Interesting, I am not implying that it will by any means and I don't think it will. I just wanted to compare it to Florida as some people tend to ignore Pennsylvania and move on with their lives. I just haven't heard many conservatives say "What happens when the democrats lose PA?". And to defend any threat against Pennsylvania, liberals say "Its never leaned republican since x (1948)". Well it turns out to be that Florida hasn't leaned democrat since the days of reconstruction in 1968, almost the same kind of situation, and to be fair the civil rights act heavily altered voting in the south, so they're incomparable. Yet some people seem convinced that Florida will change due to shifts of the electorate and Pennsylvania won't.

All I'm saying is that some people are too focused on demographic and voting changes that favored their party in the 2012 election that they would rather focus on the republican party's fate than think within reasonable means.

Your concerns are noted.

I've also noted the Republicans' presidential performances in Pennsylvania, as you mentioned, and I'm sticking with what I've either implied or stated outright: A Republican isn't presidential candidate is not going to carry Pennsylvania unless he's been elected and won by a substantial national margin. The R+2.46 by George W. Bush in 2004, the only "+" for Team Red since after the 1980s, isn't enough to bring in the Keystone State. Also, the fact that the base of today's Republican Party is in the Old Confederacy … it's not encouraging, realistically, for The Republicans Who Want Pennsylvania Oh-So-Badly.

As for Florida: I've noted it's a bellwether state performing within five percentage points of the national margin in every election since 1996. It is in sync with king-making (or queen-making) bellwether Ohio (whose margins have been within five percentage points since its unbroken streak of carrying for all winners date back to 1964). The general statements about Florida being a Republican state (and "center right") are asinine. And I'm not on board to say it is generally a Democratic state. But I have stated that we are in a realignment presidential period favoring the Democrats. So, there is plenty of reason for those who prefer the Democrats to feel encouraged.

I no doubt think Florida is a bellwether, but thinking its center-right is not asinine, here's the trend pattern for both states since 2000.

Note: When I conduct these numbers, I'm going by margin of victory, so If Obama won Pennsylvania by 5.4%, and he won overall by 3.9%, its 1.5% more democratic than the nation.

Florida:

2000: R+0.5%
2004: R+2.6%
2008: R+4.4%
2012: R+3.0%

Pennsylvania:

2000: D+3.7%
2004: D+4.9%
2008: D+3.1%
2012: D+1.5%

When I say center right, I mean right about center or slightly right of center, not that's its a republican state. It has always been slightly right of center, even if its not by much.

You're right about Pennsylvania, republicans just haven't won by enough to win it. No doubt though, all it takes is a comfortable republican victory similar to Obama's elections to win it though.