If Florida starts leaning Democrat, what next for GOP?

[Smash255]

Florida is a huge deal.

It is, but I believe it will remain center-right. It has never been left-leaning in modern history. If republicans get the white vote out of Florida that they got in 2012 and the Hispanic vote they got in 2004 (or even 2008) they have the state easily. 2012 was somewhat of a weird election in a way due to very poor GOP Hispanic vote. If Florida does become an issue though, then the GOP is suffering serious illnesses, similar to democrat illnesses in the 80's.

Florida has a large Hispanic population, but the GOP was able to be very competitive with the Hispanic vote in the state because of the Cuban vote. In recent years the non-Cuban Hispanic population in FL is growing faster than the Cuban-Hispanic population.  That is a problem for the GOP.  To top it off, they lost massive ground with Cubans in 2012.  It is too early to tell if it is a one time trend granted, however they continue to do the very same things they did in the last few years that pissed off Hispanics and are showing no signs of changing.  If they can't get the Cuban vote back, they are done.

[opebo]

what's their strategy at that point?

Why would Florida start leaning Democrat? They've been center-right in every election since 1956 except for 1976 with Carter's southern base. What if California starts leaning Republican?

Growth of non-Cuban Hispanics, Cubans trending D, Old folks dying off and being replaced by a new set of retirees who may be less Republican-leaning.  Its another time-bomb for your party.

[hopper]

FL and PA are both moving D, guys.  FL faster, PA slower (and the latter masked recently by racism).

No PA has trended slightly R in recent years. FL maybe a slow D for now anyway.

[barfbag]

what's their strategy at that point?

Why would Florida start leaning Democrat? They've been center-right in every election since 1956 except for 1976 with Carter's southern base. What if California starts leaning Republican?

Growth of non-Cuban Hispanics, Cubans trending D, Old folks dying off and being replaced by a new set of retirees who may be less Republican-leaning.  Its another time-bomb for your party.

Democrats could've said the same thing in 1992 and 1996 though and it's pretty much been the same for 60 years at the presidential level.

[Sol]

what's their strategy at that point?

Why would Florida start leaning Democrat? They've been center-right in every election since 1956 except for 1976 with Carter's southern base. What if California starts leaning Republican?

Growth of non-Cuban Hispanics, Cubans trending D, Old folks dying off and being replaced by a new set of retirees who may be less Republican-leaning.  Its another time-bomb for your party.

Actually, the Floridian olds are less D-friendly than they used to be- It's the folks who grew up with FDR being replaced.

[opebo]

what's their strategy at that point?

Why would Florida start leaning Democrat? They've been center-right in every election since 1956 except for 1976 with Carter's southern base. What if California starts leaning Republican?

Growth of non-Cuban Hispanics, Cubans trending D, Old folks dying off and being replaced by a new set of retirees who may be less Republican-leaning.  Its another time-bomb for your party.

Actually, the Floridian olds are less D-friendly than they used to be- It's the folks who grew up with FDR being replaced.

No, those are almost all dead already, Sol.  The ones dying off now are the follow generation (not the 'Greatest Generation', the 'Silent Generation', a Republican-leaning group).

I just thought of something - why don't they cancel Social Security checks during the shutdown?  I honestly think that would swing the olds D hard, and I think they're the sort to remember (at least till they die).

[barfbag]

what's their strategy at that point?

Why would Florida start leaning Democrat? They've been center-right in every election since 1956 except for 1976 with Carter's southern base. What if California starts leaning Republican?

Growth of non-Cuban Hispanics, Cubans trending D, Old folks dying off and being replaced by a new set of retirees who may be less Republican-leaning.  Its another time-bomb for your party.

Actually, the Floridian olds are less D-friendly than they used to be- It's the folks who grew up with FDR being replaced.

No, those are almost all dead already, Sol.  The ones dying off now are the follow generation (not the 'Greatest Generation', the 'Silent Generation', a Republican-leaning group).

I just thought of something - why don't they cancel Social Security checks during the shutdown?  I honestly think that would swing the olds D hard, and I think they're the sort to remember (at least till they die).

You want Democrats to cut off social security checks so that people receiving social security will vote more in favor of Democrats? You want people to not eat in some cases for the sake of your party winning? First of all, if Democrats cut off social security checks they'd be the ones to suffer. Secondly, I don't know what year you live in but those are set up automatically and have been for a decade or two now. No one really receives paper checks anymore. It happens but rarely. Why do you want suffering for the benefit of your party?

[opebo]

Actually, the Floridian olds are less D-friendly than they used to be- It's the folks who grew up with FDR being replaced.

No, those are almost all dead already, Sol.  The ones dying off now are the follow generation (not the 'Greatest Generation', the 'Silent Generation', a Republican-leaning group).

I just thought of something - why don't they cancel Social Security checks during the shutdown?  I honestly think that would swing the olds D hard, and I think they're the sort to remember (at least till they die).

You want Democrats to cut off social security checks so that people receiving social security will vote more in favor of Democrats? You want people to not eat in some cases for the sake of your party winning? First of all, if Democrats cut off social security checks they'd be the ones to suffer. Secondly, I don't know what year you live in but those are set up automatically and have been for a decade or two now. No one really receives paper checks anymore. It happens but rarely. Why do you want suffering for the benefit of your party?

[barfbag]

Actually, the Floridian olds are less D-friendly than they used to be- It's the folks who grew up with FDR being replaced.

No, those are almost all dead already, Sol.  The ones dying off now are the follow generation (not the 'Greatest Generation', the 'Silent Generation', a Republican-leaning group).

I just thought of something - why don't they cancel Social Security checks during the shutdown?  I honestly think that would swing the olds D hard, and I think they're the sort to remember (at least till they die).

You want Democrats to cut off social security checks so that people receiving social security will vote more in favor of Democrats? You want people to not eat in some cases for the sake of your party winning? First of all, if Democrats cut off social security checks they'd be the ones to suffer. Secondly, I don't know what year you live in but those are set up automatically and have been for a decade or two now. No one really receives paper checks anymore. It happens but rarely. Why do you want suffering for the benefit of your party?

No answer?

[Flake]

Actually, the Floridian olds are less D-friendly than they used to be- It's the folks who grew up with FDR being replaced.

No, those are almost all dead already, Sol.  The ones dying off now are the follow generation (not the 'Greatest Generation', the 'Silent Generation', a Republican-leaning group).

I just thought of something - why don't they cancel Social Security checks during the shutdown?  I honestly think that would swing the olds D hard, and I think they're the sort to remember (at least till they die).

You want Democrats to cut off social security checks so that people receiving social security will vote more in favor of Democrats? You want people to not eat in some cases for the sake of your party winning? First of all, if Democrats cut off social security checks they'd be the ones to suffer. Secondly, I don't know what year you live in but those are set up automatically and have been for a decade or two now. No one really receives paper checks anymore. It happens but rarely. Why do you want suffering for the benefit of your party?

No answer?

Your party is the one advocating the end of social security though. And if social security was deemed unnecessary when the government admit down then in 2014 democrats would make huge gains on seniors because it is the republican controlled house's fault

[opebo]

There isn't a soul in the world, old or young, that thinks any social program is more under threat from the Democrats than the Republicans.  Cancel those checks, blame the GOP's shutdown, and Florida's a lock in 2016.

[Non Swing Voter]

Why do people still spend time writing thoughtful responses to barfbag?  Just wondering?

[Flake]

Why do people still spend time writing thoughtful responses to barfbag?  Just wondering?

Well I think he is serious on his positions for (at least) most issues, and I want to explain to him my position or why what he said has no statistical support (example: Hispanics are socially conservative compared to the rest of the American electorate).