A House Divided

[Heptahedron]

America stands in a precarious position. India and China begin their slow rise to power while the Middle East struggles to solve its problems with sectarian violence. The 2016 presidential election is critical: many are fed up with the Obama administration, but the Democrats still have the demographics on their side. The winner in this contest will be an unlikely one, but will have an undeniable impact on history...
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Milwaukee, Wisconsin. On a chilly October afternoon in the year of 2015, a woman beloved by many people, but hated by others stood. Her face showed age, but vigor and determination still showed through her vibrant blue eyes. This woman was Hillary Clinton: a woman who has had many expectations, and somebody who has been the subject of political buzz since President Obama won his fight for reelection. News cameras fixated on her as she walked up to the podium to speak to the enormous crowd eager to hear what she said, and an eager nation that was holding their breath.

"Welcome. I want to thank you all for coming on this chilly afternoon."

The former First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State drew in a deep breath of the frigid air as she surveyed the crowd. Thousands of eyes appeared to glimmer with hope, and she knew millions waited to pounce on her next words.

"I feel honored to have served this country for many years. I stood faithfully by my husband as he went through the ups and downs of his presidency. I served the state of New York as its senator, and then the nation as Secretary of State. I faced many challenges in public office, but have come back with courage for the people of this great nation. I may not be perfect, but I served with the best of my ability, and the fullest of my heart."

The crowd roared, the energy radiating from them seeming to speed up the vibration of the air molecules around them.

"Many people have spoken about me since my retirement. Many people have wanted me to run for the highest office in the US, one I have pursued and the people around me have supported my pursuit."
The crowd started its chant as a metronome of "Hillary! Hillary! Hillary!" She smiled, nodded her head, and waved her hand in a gesture to quiet the crowd.

"Thank you, I truly appreciate your support. However, I have not come here to push anymore. As I stated, I have served this great nation for many years, but this time must come to an end. My husband and I are finally getting a relationship as close to one we had just after our marriage, and my decision is not to run for President of the United States. I will fully support whoever the Democratic Party chooses to nominate and will campaign on their behalf. I want to truly thank you for all of the wonderful support I have been given these many decades I have spent in the public spotlight, and I hope you can continue to support the values I have worked to uphold all of these years."

She smiled and waved as she stepped off of the podium and took her husband's hand. There were isolated vocal displays of frustration and disappointment initially, but after a few seconds the crowd began to take up a feverish cheer. To the dismay of the event security, the Clintons walked into the crowd and began to shake hands. After seeing a number of people, they exited the park and stepped into the car waiting nearby. Some fanatics, mainly media paparazzi, started chasing after the car.

Some were bewildered and disappointed; some were giving a sigh of relief and joyful. One thing was sure: 2016 was suddenly up for grabs, and they were ready to pounce.

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"The Democratic Party needs a strong woman candidate that can appeal to a wide range of Americans. My support was behind Hillary, but after she gracefully bowed out, I feel compelled to run in order to make a stand for the values of progressivism and to continue to bring the Democratic Party policy to the middle class American. I officially announce my candidacy for the Democratic nomination for the Presidency of the United States."

-Senator Amy Klobuchar in Minneapolis on October 18, 2015


"After careful consideration, I have decided to announce my candidacy for President. I have made many advancements in my state of Maryland serving as its governor, and I want to bring these reforms that improve the quality of life of the average American to Washington that is largely ruled by special interests and turns a deaf ear to the middle class citizen."

-Governor Martin O'Malley in Baltimore on October 18, 2015


"Eight years of the Obama administration has taken an enormous toll on America. We need somebody who can control the the government that has inflated out of control, and I believe that I am the best man to do that job. That is why I have decided to officially announce my candidacy for the presidency."

-Senator Rand Paul in Louisville on October 19, 2015


"The damage has been done. It is time we get common sense back in Washington, and not anymore snobby politicians who won't compromise. If we want to get this party back in the White House, we need common sense, and that is why I am running for president."

-Governor Chris Christie in Newark on October 20, 2015


"I hope that the Republican Party recognizes its mistake in not picking me to be its nominee in 2012. I have some of the strongest conservative credentials and can truly reverse what burdens the Obama administration has placed upon the American people."

-Former Senator Rick Santorum in Des Moines on October 22, 2015

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Cruz, Gillibrand mum on presidential prospects while Hickenlooper rises
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
20 October 2015, updated 7:56 PM EST

Gillibrand and Cruz in 2013, when they worked together on a bipartisan bill

The presidential race has exponentially expanded in proportion after Clinton's announcement that she will not be seeking the presidency. Many big players have entered the race so far, but more are still expected to do so. One of those that are the subject of speculation is Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who has made comments alluding to a possible presidential run since 2013. Many have considered a run from him likely, but he has remained vague in his comments relating to a possible run, stating that "he is weighing his options" and that "the presidential race is in dire need of a strong conservative."

Another widely speculated candidate is Senator Gillibrand of New York, who rose into the national spotlight after her speech calling for massive defense spending reform and her success in passing multiple related bills in 2014. Much of the Hillary camp has pushed her to run, giving her a possible enormous base of support. So far she has states that a run is "not out of the cards" but that it will be a hard decision to make. However, another person that faces rising speculation is Governor Hickenlooper of Colorado, even though he has repeatedly said no to a presidential run before. Theoretical polls place him at 3rd place at 15%, but his numbers have steadily risen in the past few months and continue to rise. He is increasing in popularity among progressives due to his successful lead in the implementation of marijuana legalization in Colorado, and many consider him to be a better candidate than Klobuchar or O'Malley. Governor Hickenlooper has not responded to these messages yet.

Here is the polling thus far for the people who have officially declared their candidacy. Governor O'Malley leads with a slim 3% margin on the Democratic side, but with a significant chunk of undecideds, while Senator Paul has just under a 2% lead in the Republican field. These numbers are apt to change quite a bit more as we get closer to the the Iowa caucus.

[Senator Cris]

Good start but when you update your precedent timeline ( Radioactive: Politics of the 21st Century)?

[Enderman]

on the AH page he gave, it said he had writer's block

[Heptahedron]

Santorum to Cruz: "Let's not split the conservative vote"
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
23 October 2015, updated 2:47 PM EST


Santorum at one of his town hall meetings in Iowa back in 2012.

Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum is clearly trying to avoid many mistakes he made in 2012, and is getting his campaigning off to a very strong start. He has participated in a number of town halls across the state of Iowa over the course of the past few days, and is trying to garner support among rural Evangelical conservatives. He spoke about keeping "traditional social values" and "undoing the damage of the Obama administration" in regards to Obamacare and the regulations placed on Wall Street. Santorum is trying to build upon his Base from the Iowa caucus in 2012, where he won a plurality in the popular vote. His polling has increased due to these trips, but today it has garnered a lot of attention due to the fact that he made a call at one of his meetings for Ted Cruz, who is still on the fence about a presidential run, to keep out.

He spoke about how important it was for a "ideologically pure" candidate to be picked by the Republican Party over a "wishy-washy moderate," and that in order for that to happen, he wanted to prevent any other conservative from entering the race to prevent infighting and vote splitting so that they have a better shot at winning the nomination. There are multiple potential conservative candidates that could enter the race, but the major one is Senator Ted Cruz. Theoretical polling is placing support for a Cruz candidacy higher than a Santorum one, which could be one reason why Santorum made these remarks. Senator Cruz has replied only by saying that "he is weighing his options," and that "healthy competition keeps politicians sharp."

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"The Republican field lacks someone with common sense paired with the drive and the willingness to compromise in order to get things done in our deadlocked Congress. I have come to understand how I can get Washington to turn its wheels once again, but I cannot bring my ideas to fruition while remaining in Congress. Even though I have been honored to represent the people of Alaska, I hope that they can support my candidacy for the presidency of the United States.”

-Senator Lisa Murkowski in Anchorage, Alaska on October 25, 2015

“I have come here today to announce that I will not be running for president. I have loved to serve as the governor of the state of New Mexico, and I do not want to leave this state and put my family, especially my sister, under the stresses of an international campaign. For these reasons, I have decided that my family is more important to me, and that I will support whoever the Republican Party chooses.”

-Governor Susana Martinez in Santa Fe, New Mexico on October 28, 2015

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“I have seen how much deadlock there is in Washington, and I know that the people are fed up with it. The state of Colorado, a tossup in presidential elections, has re-elected me to Congress, and they have seen my ability to compromise while still getting things done. We need somebody who can continue President Obama’s progress while accelerating the pace of it and getting even more done. That is why I have made the decision to run for President of the United States."

-Senator Mark Udall in Pueblo, Colorado on October 25, 2015

“Many people have asked whether or not I will run for president. I have tossed the question to myself and my family a number of times, and I have finally made my decision that I will not be running. I have been honored to be able to serve as governor of the wonderful state of Colorado, and have decided to endorse Senator Udall for the Democratic nomination.”

-Governor John Hickenlooper in Denver, Colorado on October 26, 2015

“I have been honored to serve the state of Massachusetts through periods of despair and hope. This state has sticked together and become much more prosperous than ever before. I have decided to declare my candidacy for president so I can bring the prosperity of Massachusetts to the nation and bring America into a new era.”

-Governor Deval Patrick in Boston, Massachusetts on October 27, 2015

[NHI]

Looks great.

[Miles]

Looks great.

[PPT Spiral]

I love this already. Please keep going.

[Heptahedron]

POLLING CENTER
-October 27, 2015-

The latest round of polling results are in for the developing 2016 presidential race, and the polls are only becoming closer. Both leaders have dropped with the entrance of more people, but newcomers Udall, Patrick, and Murkowski are all in the bottom of the pack. The only person who has experienced a noticeable increase since last polling cycle is Santorum, who has been boosted by his very public appearances in town hall meetings.

These polling numbers are not exactly reflective of what polls in Iowa look like. Udall and Murkowski, currently in the back of the pack nationally, are both polling very well in Iowa. Governor Christie, who has faced enormous speculation leading up to this election season, is falling in Iowa with Murkowski close behind. Even though he has a lead looking towards New Hampshire, he is quickly falling in Iowa which could enormously damage his campaign. Senator Cruz, in theoretical polling, ranks second place nationwide and in Iowa. Even though Iowa is only one state out of 50 that takes a step towards deciding both parties candidates, it has had a huge effect on who gets elected, and if a candidate can make it here then they can make it anywhere.

ANN IOWA CAUCUS DEMOCRATIC TRACKING
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota- 27%
Governor Martin O'Malley of Maryland- 26%
Senator Mark Udall of Colorado- 20%
Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts- 11%
Undecided- 13%

ANN IOWA CAUCUS REPUBLICAN TRACKING
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky- 23%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania- 23%
Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey- 20%
Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska- 17%
Undecided- 19%

[Heptahedron]

Murkowski: "My credentials are stronger than Christie's"
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
30 October 2015, updated 5:24 PM EST



In an interview with our own Anderson Cooper today, Murkowski made the case that moderates should vote for her over Christie because she has the stronger credentials. She spoke about her ideas on a number of topics during the interview, with a special emphasis on compromise. She stated that "the Republican Party in its current state is too adverse or compromise, and that is what is making the American people be more favorable to the Democratic Party." She emphasized the fact that she was willing to compromise to get things done instead of "retreating to another form of partisan gridlock." In preparation for the upcoming Iowa caucuses, she also responded to a number of questions about the other candidates, especially Chris Christie, who is closest to her ideologically out of the group. She stated that he has the personality and charisma with none of the credentials to back it up, and that as the Governor of New Jersey he failed to accomplish many of the things that he set out to do.

Senator Murkowski, regularly considered the underdog in the race, has been steadily rising in polls. Many have cited Christie's potential to have an abrasive personality at times, while Murkowski holds a more agreeable personality. However, she struggles with having significantly less name recognition than Christie, and has a significant amount of ground to make up if she wants to make it big in Iowa.
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Warren, Cuomo opt out of the presidential race
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
1 November 2015, updated 1:03 PM EST



Two national names in the Democratic Party, Governor Cuomo of New York and Senator Warren of Massachusetts have opted out of a run today. Cuomo stated that now was simply not his time, and that serving as New York's governor has been enough of a fulfillment to him. Senator Warren, who has become known for her strong progressive economic policy making, has opted out of the race because she feels that she can make more impact towards shaping laws and heading committees in the Senate than she ever could in the presidency. A number of people have expressed disappointment over these decisions not to run, as there was a lot of support building up behind each.

Now, the bulk of speculation for the Democratic field turns to Senator Gillibrand, who would command the Democratic field in polling should she run. A lot of the Clinton camp has pushed Gillibrand to run, and now with Warren out, a lot of her support base has began to push her to run. She has only responded by stating that she needs to "weigh her options carefully" and that she "has not made a decision."
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BREAKING: Senator Cruz announces presidential run
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
1 November 2015, updated 8:59 PM EST



At a rally just outside of Houston today, Senator Cruz ended enormous speculation surrounding a possible presidential run by confirming that he will enter the race. He stated that there needs to be a "passionate conservative with the drive to get things done without sacrificing values." This ends tremendous speculation surrounding a run from him, and preliminary polling shows him at third place nationally and first in Iowa. Cruz has had a significant effect on the polling of Paul and Santorum, while Christie and Murkowski have remained relatively steady. Right now is too early to see reactions from any other candidates, but they will surely trickle in. Cruz has not hesitated in labeling Santorum as an unviable option and a candidate of the past.

8:59 PM: Santorum has responded by saying "I wish that conservatives would work together, instead of fighting amongst ourselves. Do you want a ideologically impure candidate to represent this party?"

[hurricanehink]

Love where this is going, but isn't it a bit late to be deciding/not deciding in October/November before the election year? Namely, wouldn't Cuomo and Warren have decided earlier? I love the potential for a Murkowski win though

[PolitiJunkie]

Love where this is going, but isn't it a bit late to be deciding/not deciding in October/November before the election year? Namely, wouldn't Cuomo and Warren have decided earlier? I love the potential for a Murkowski win though

Yeah, usually the announcements are in January-April of the year before the election. Recent late announcements include Fred Thompson's 2008 campaign, announced in September 2007, and Rick Perry's 2012 campaign, announced in August 2011. Both campaigns were huge failures.

Also, what's Biden up to in this TL? What is the speculation regarding him/has he already declined?

Love this TL!

[Heptahedron]

To hold you guys over until the next big update, here is the Senate as of 2015, with the outcomes of the big races in 2014.

SENATE OF THE 116th CONGRESS - JANUARY 2015
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PRESIDENT OF THE SENATE: Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)
MAJOIRTY LEADER: Harry Reid (D-NV)
MAJORITY WHIP: Richard Durbin (D-IL)
MINORITY LEADER: John Cornyn (R-TX)
MINORITY WHIP: John Thune (R-SD)

Kentucky: Allison Grimes (D) def. Mitch McConnell (R) - D Gain
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) def. Thom Tillis (R) - D Hold
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) def. Joni Ernst (R) - D Hold
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) def. Mead Tredwell (R) - D Hold
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) def. Bill Cassidy (R) - D Hold
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) def. Rick Weiland (D) - R Gain
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) def. Mark Pryor (D) - R Gain
Montana: Corey Stapleton (R) def. Stephanie Schriock (D) - R Gain
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) def. Natalie Tennant (D) - R Gain

[Heptahedron]

JANUARY 18, 2016

Welcome to ANN’s coverage of the 2016 Iowa Caucuses. I am Wolf Blitzer, and I will be your host tonight. With us, we have ANN’s own Anderson Cooper and political analyst and journalist Abby Huntsman in order to give us some insight into tonights events. Later tonight, we will also have a special visit from Governor of New Mexico, Susana Martinez.

HUNTSMAN: Thank you Wolf, I am happy to be here.

Tonight will have big repercussions on the rest of the season. These Iowa caucuses make history by being the first to have both parties hold theirs on the same day due to scheduling conflicts, which means all eyes will be watching tonight intently. Even though Iowa is far from being the chief decider of the presidential race, nobody can deny its impacts. On the Republican side, Ted Cruz and Chris Christie, long considered to be the front runners of the race, have been battling hard for a victory in this race. However, we cannot deny that Rand Paul and the rising star Lisa Murkowski have something to fight for in this race. On the Democratic side, the big names Martin O'Malley and Amy Klobuchar have been sparring for Iowa, but Deval Patrick and Mark Udall have still taken a significant amount of attention and voters. There is also the wildcard Howard Dean, which has the distinct possibility to affect the outcome of Iowa.
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Early on in the counts, Christie and O'Malley lead. However, more westward in polling we have found more support for Klobuchar and Cruz, so these leads could be futile. Stay tuned for more, bust first, here are some candidates responses to the recent announcements on Twitter:

Martin O'Malley: Let's keep representing, Iowa! #O'Malley2016
Ted Cruz: The night is early, but conservatives in Iowa will have their voices heard! #CruzForAmerica
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The first race that we are prepared to call tonight is the Democratic one, and that Senator Klobuchar will be the winner with 29% of the vote at 89% reporting. Governor O’Malley is only a percentage point behind, but at this point it is near impossible for him to make up the percent deficit behind Klobuchar that he has held for most of the night.

Klobuchar was generally considered the favorite to win Iowa due to her appeal to more rural Midwestern democratic voters that O’Malley did not have. Here with us to talk about the results is Abby Huntsman, who I introduced at the beginning of the broadcast.

HUNTSMAN: Thanks Wolf. First off, I think that Klobuchar’s victory is in no way a surprise. O’Malley just did not have the person to person appeal that she has with voters in the Midwest. However, when we look forward to New Hampshire, O’Malley has the edge. However, he will have to watch for Patrick, who could have a breakthrough in New Hampshire. This boost from a victory in Iowa will help, but the race is far from decided.
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And we finally have enough information from the Republican race to call a victory for Senator Cruz. Much like the Democratic race, the runner up Chris Christie only lost by a percentage point.

The race was really considered a toss up between Cruz and Christie. Both have shown themselves to occupy very different places in the party. It is also notable that Senator Murkowski passed the auspicious 15% “eligibility” line, marking a significant increase from the 9% she polled upon entry to the race. Here to make an analysis of the results in Iowa for the GOP is Governor Susana Martinez of New Mexico.

MARTINEZ: Thanks for inviting me here tonight, Wolf. First off, I must establish that I am not all too surprised to see Cruz win in Iowa. Many Republicans are wary of another urban, Northeastern politician and can relate more easily to Cruz. However, Christie is far more in his element in New Hampshire, and it would not be hard to see him pulling a victory in New Hampshire. However, I think that we all need to watch out for Murkowski. She has a lot of the right traits for the Presidency without being tarnished by the spotlight for a long period of time, like Cruz and Christie have. If they don’t stop her now, she will become a force to be reckoned with for the rest of the season.

Thank you Governor. That will conclude our coverage of the 2016 Iowa caucuses. From me and all of ANN, we hope you have a good evening and will join us again.

[Heptahedron]

Jindal drops out, endorses Murkowski for GOP nomination
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
19 November 2016, updated 3:34 PM EST

 

In New Orleans, former Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal announced that he is withdrawing his name from the Republican nomination process. He stated that he is disappointed that he has to drop out, but that it is for the good of the party. In his speech, he endorsed Senator Murkowski for the GOP nomination, citing her moderate record and what he calls her “electability and relatability.” Pundits are not surprised seeing Jindal drop out, since his 6% showing was low, but some are surprised that he chose to endorse Murkowski instead of Christie. Governor Martinez’s endorsement of Murkowski, who has quite a bit of clout even considering the fact that she declined to run for president, had a factor in Jindal’s decision.
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Candidates debate in New Hampshire: Christie, Murkowski, Udall, and O’Malley come out on top
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
22 November 2015, updated 10:07 AM EST



Both parties held debates last night in New Hampshire in preparation for the New Hampshire primaries on the 26th for the Democrats and the 27th for the Republicans. On the Democratic side, Udall and O’Malley came off as the strongest candidates based on voter polling. O’Malley pushed for nationwide legalization of gay marriage as soon as possible, and presented himself as staunchly liberal on social issues. Udall presented a very strong program for clean energy implementation as well as support for greatly reducing the scope of the NDAA (which he was a strong opponent before it was passed) and the NSA. Howard Dean received some applause for presenting a very progressive platform, but he has been criticized for being idealistic and having no substance to his ideas.

On the Republican side, Christie and Murkowski were considered to be the victors by viewer polls. Senator Cruz was by far the most vocal of the candidates and took up around half of the air time. Cruz took a very hardline conservative stance on many issues, but Murkowski and Christie responded with more moderate responses and were both willing to compromise. Christie was very no-nonsense and called Cruz’s ideas “stupid” on occasion, which got him some fans, but many people thought he was irritable and had an abrasive personality. Murkowski on the other hand came off much more polite and concise with her answers. Voters polled her, by far, the most relatable of all of the candidates, and non-issue voters, if those even exist in the primary season voter base, are most likely voting for her. Every day, Murkowski is gaining more and more support, and this could turn into a three way race if she continues her momentum.

[Heptahedron]

- January 26, 2016 -
GOVERNOR O'MALLEY COMFORTABLY WINS DEMOCRATIC CONTEST IN NH



As of 7:15 PM, ANN can project that Governor O'Malley will win the New Hampshire primary. Senator Klobuchar, the victor in Iowa, is three points behind, with Governor Deval Patrick in third place and five points behind Klobuchar. Governor Dean's numbers have gone down since Iowa, which spells some very bad things for his future in this race. Here with us to make some sense of these results is our political analyst Abby Huntsman.

HUNTSMAN: I am not surprised by this result. New Hampshire was O'Malley's to win all along. However, the Colorado and Utah caucuses are next in the New Democratic schedule, where it is looking like there is a distinct possibility that Udall could make a breakthrough in both. O'Malley, if he will be his party's nominee, will have to watch this state closely come general election season, as I could see anybody in the field, aside from Senator Cruz, putting that state solidly in play.
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- January 27, 2016 -
GOVERNOR CHRISTIE NARROWLY WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY



ANN feels comfortable projecting that the victor in New Hampshire will be Governor Christie. New Hampshire has been polling in his favor since the first polls were held, but Murkowski came only a percentage point behind beating him. Murkowski has risen in the ranks quickly, and the Christie camp is probably very concerned. Cruz is four points behind Murkowski, while Santorum's support base has has shrunken considerably to nine percent with many of his potential voters going for Cruz. Here with us to make some sense of these results is our political analyst Abby Huntsman.

HUNTSMAN: Of course, a Christie victory is really no surprise. He will surely put the state into play if he wins his party's nomination. However, he and Christie need to keep an eye on Murkowski. It is not likely she will win South Carolina, but Nevada is solidly in play and she could win it easily. Florida, a big delegate prize coming up, is a state where she is competitive as well. She has really come up fast and this race is quickly turning into a triopoply as opposed to the expected duopoly of the polar Christie and Cruz.

[tmthforu94]

Wonderful job!

[Flake]

Your timelines are easily my favorite on here! Please keep it going!

[Heptahedron]

Patrick, Santorum suspend presidential campaigns
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
3 February 2016, updated 3:13 PM EST



After disappointing showings in the past few primaries and caucuses, Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts and former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania have chosen to suspend their respective presidential campaigns. Santorum stated that he is disappointed by the past few showings, and that he will not run for president again, but that he does not wish to continue splitting the conservative vote. He gave his endorsement to Senator Cruz, saying that he is the best man and the strongest candidate to carry the party and bring it back to its roots.

Patrick stated that it is clear he does not have enough support for the nomination, so he has chosen to drop out for the sake ofparty unity. He endorsed O'Malley for the Democratic nomination, giving him an important boost in what has been a close fight between Klobuchar and O'Malley for the top spot in most contests. At this point in the primaries, the fields for both parties are being slimmed down quickly and we are seeing the big players emerge. The Democratic field is down to three, while the Republicans still have four that all have a competitive chance at their parties nomination.
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Sandoval competitive with Reid, but other Senate Republicans vulnerable
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
4 February 2016, updated 6:50 PM EST



Former Governor Brian Sandoval announced his challenge for Reid's senate seat around two months ago, and at this point, he is far ahead of all competitors and very likely to win the primary. Right now, he is polling 47% to 49%, which is much closer than any of Senator Reid's margins of victory have been so far. Sandoval has made a lot of inroads with the Hispanic community in Nevada, which is one of the few Republicans that have been able to do so on this scale. This is digging into Reid's base and putting his seat in danger.

Although the Republicans are competitive in Nevada, they are losing a number of other Senate races. Senator Kirk is retiring after his term is up next year, and Illinois is naturally more favorable to the Democrats. Congressman Schock is likely to win his party's primary, but he is facing an uphill climb against. Senators Rob Portman of Ohio, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin are both polling behind their respective Democratic challengers, which puts the Republican Party in a very tough spot and unlikely to meet their strong performance in the 2014 elections.


7 out of 8 of the races that are currently toss-up have Republican incumbents.

[Flake]

Florida has no Senate race in 2014

[badgate]

Florida has no Senate race in 2014

This is 2016.

[Miles]

Wow; your results/ratings maps put the ones in my TL to shame

[Heptahedron]

Cruz: This is the end of the road for non-conservative candidates
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
7 February 2016, updated 6:50 PM EST



In an interview today, Senator and presidential candidate Ted Cruz stated that the Republican Party “can only go in a conservative direction” with its nomination process. He claims that recent infighting in the moderate faction of the GOP between the establishment Christie and upstart Murkowski is a sign that a moderate candidate will only create more issues that prevent the party from ascending to the White House. The senator’s allegations are based off of a recent debate, held after Florida, that pitted Christie and Murkowski against each other in an argument over who had the better record. Murkowski claimed that as Governor, Christie did little to help New Jersey while she had a record that showed she was willing to compromise in the Senate. Christie came back by saying that Murkowski would not be “tough enough” to get real work done in Congress and that his executive experience in New Jersey is more applicable than experience as a Senator.

Cruz claim that it splits the party is rather accurate based on polling data. Cruz holds a plurality of support in the overall GOP at the moment with 38%. Murkowski has 29%, and Christie has 27% with Paul in last place with 6%. The self proclaimed moderates that vote for Murkowski and Christie, however, make up a bloc of 56% of voters. All signs in this party’s contest show that it will be a very long a divisive presidential primary season.
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- February 7, 2016 -
MURKOWSKI WINS MINNESOTA, COLORADO, CRUZ TAKES MISSOURI







Today, Murkowski has really reaffirmed her status as a frontrunner in this race through victories in the Minnesota and Colorado contests. She has shown herself to be very popular in the West and Midwest, and these victories help confirm this. However, Cruz took Missouri by a fairly comfortable margin. Murkowski has a fair amount more delegates than Christie, and his campaign is largely on damage control.

HUNTSMAN: A lot of the right things have been said already. Christie is the third wheel right now and something major has to happen if he wants to get himself back in the top spot. Murkowski was really sucsessful in displaying as Christie having all of the charisma and none of the substance, while she has shown herself to have all of that, along with a no nonsense but still somewhat pragmatic attitude. She is looking like the one to beat.
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- February 13, 2016 -
O'MALLEY TAKES SOUTH CAROLINA



On the much quieter Democratic side of the contests, O'Malley has won the South Carolina contest by a fairly comfortable margin. O'Malley has polled very well among African-Americans in the primaries since Governor Patrick's exit and this is very likely one of the major elements that contributed to his victory.

HUNTSMAN: Being the Governor of Maryland certainly helps with picking up the African-American vote. He knows what they need and a lot of the social programs he implemented in Maryland were aimed at helping them specifically. If he becomes the nominee, I would expect him to have a lot more clout in the south than President Obama did in 2008 and 2012, even with the monolithic black vote.
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- February 16, 2016 -
O'MALLEY ROUNDS OUT CAROLINAS



O'Malley rounds out his victory in South Carolina a few days ago with a victory in North Carolina today. This victory was just as strong as the one in South Carolina, and not very much of a surprise considering that polling indicated this exact thing occurring.

HUNTSMAN: I really don't have much to say about North Carolina than I already said about its southern counterpart. North Carolina was the only swing state that went for Romney in 2012, and North Carolina is very likely to be in play this year, especially if O'Malley is the nominee.
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- February 23, 2016 -
O'MALLEY CONTINUES VICTORIES IN ARIZONA, MICHIGAN





The Governor of Maryland continues to have very strong showings in the Democratic contests. He wins the Arizona and Michigan contests today, although it is important to note that Klobuchar only trailed him by 4% in Michigan. At this point, O'Malley has created a solid delegate lead, but Klobuchar could catch up easily through a victory in a big contest.

HUNTSMAN: These contests are the final ones before Super Tuesday for the Democrats. Super Tuesday, from what we can see now, will be far from a deciding match for this party. Klobuchar has a lead in Texas, which is an enormous delegate grab and could easily put her above O'Malley. There is also the element of Udall, who could realistically take away enough delegates from either to prevent a breakthrough from either. However, this does not appear to be headed to convention in any stretch of imagination.
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- February 28, 2016 -
CRUZ TAKES ARIZONA, CHRISTIE WINS BIG IN MICHIGAN





ANN can bring you some more intriguing news, this time with the Republican Party. Christie has secured a two percent margin of victory over Murkowski in Michigan, while Cruz made a less exciting victory in Arizona. This is likely the fuel that Chrstie's campaign needs to keep going. It was looking like he was finished for a week or so, but that might not be so. Christie is still far behind in the delegate count, but Michigan is a decently sized prize that can propel hm back in the nomination race.

HUNTSMAN: A Christie breakthrough was largely unexpected at this point. I think that Michgan, with a balance of rural and urban atmospheres most closely associated with the northeast, and felt the most relatable with a northeastern moderate over an Alaskan maverick or a Texan conservative. A Christie victory in this state shows is that he could still win state in the Northeast, including New York, or possibly even California. A key lesson to learn from these Republican primaries is that nobody should underestimate the underdog, from the rise of Murkowski to Christie fighting back.
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Looking to Super Tuesday: what needs to happen?
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
28 February 2016, updated 9:16 AM EST

Super Tuesday, one of the most important days in the primary season is coming up quickly. Sometimes it can be the day to decide races, but this year, the Democratic and Republican field is so closely locked that it appears unlikely a breakthrough will be made. Here are the Republican side of the races:


Senator Lisa Murkowski Alaska: 132 delegates
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas: 128 delegates
Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey: 117 delegates
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky: 35 delegates (unpledged)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania: 4 delegates (pledged to Cruz)
Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana: 0 delegates

Senator Murkowski has pulled a lead due to victories in some big winner take all contests, but Cruz is only a meager 4 delegates behind and Christie only 9 behind Cruz. Senator Paul, who ended his bid after Missouri, has not endorsed a candidate yet, and therefore his delegates are unpledged. His delegates could end up making the difference, and it is likely he will go for Murkowski or Cruz, as he has a very long history of disagreement with Christie. Anybody could feasibly pull ahead on Super Tuesday.


Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland: 145 delegates
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota: 132 delegates
Senator Mark Udall of Colorado: 88 delegates
Governor Deval Patrick: 14 delegates (pledged to O’Malley)
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean of Vermont: 0 delegates

Governor O’Malley holds a slim lead in the Democratic field. Overall, this race is shaping up to be a very close two way race. If Udall wants to have a legitimate shot at the nomination, he is going to have to pull out some big victories tomorrow.

[NHI]

Great update!!

[Vern]

What happen to North Carolina's Republican primary?

[Heptahedron]

O’Malley wins slight edge in Democratic Super Tuesday contests
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
1 March 2016, updated 6:53 PM EST



Martin O’Malley has expanded his lead in the Democratic field of candidates through today’s Super Tuesday contests. O’Malley won a majority of the contests today, which were in his strong areas of the South and Northeast. Klobuchar won the big prize of Texas and Udall kept his campaign afloat through a narrow victory in Oklahoma. Udall has stated that he would like to keep his campaign running because he believes that he has the best ideas and appeal to keep the Democratic Party in the White House. O’Malley made a statement to supporters in Portland today, stating that he hopes to keep his campaign going strong to get a “real progressive” representing the party. The current delegate allotment is as follows:


Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland: 312 delegates
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota: 287 delegates
Senator Mark Udall of Colorado: 162 delegates
Governor Deval Patrick: 14 delegates (pledged to O’Malley)
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean of Vermont: 0 delegates
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Cruz wins big in GOP Super Tuesday contests
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
6 March 2016, updated 6:10 PM EST



The true impact of the split of the moderate vote has reared its head today. Cruz took a number of winner take all contests, giving him an enormous delegate lead, while Murkowski and Christie remain neck and neck, but far behind. Senator Paul gave Murkowski a crucial edge after he endorsed her and gave up his big prize of 35 delegates to her. Cruz made a speech to supporters in Salt Lake City, where the crowd was extremely energized by his performance in the primaries. He told supporters that “the Republican Party finally understands that they can not nominate a weak candidate again” and that “he sees the light at the end of the tunnel.” Christie and Murkowski have both expressed what they feel the dangers of a Cruz candidacy would be, and they have both called on each other to drop out to end the split of the moderate vote. The current delegate counts are as follows:


Senator Ted Cruz of Texas: 394 delegates
Senator Lisa Murkowski Alaska: 211 delegates
Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey: 207 delegates
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky: 35 delegates (pledged to Murkowski)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania: 4 delegates (pledged to Cruz)
Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana: 0 delegates