A House Divided

[Niemeyerite]

I thought Klobuchar would make MN Likely D... Oh, and great TL! Whomever wins will make a decent president, and I'm sure 2020 will be a tough year for republicans, as the tea party will want to have one of them on the ballot.

[Heptahedron]

Welcome to ANN’s coverage of Election Night in America on this night of  November 8, 2016. It has been a very long divisive season, and it appears that we are in for a very long night, since polls indicate that we will see the closest election since 2000. President Obama has been in offce for nearly eight years, and whoever is elected tonight will tell quite a bit about what America thinks he and the Democratic Party have done. With us tonight are our two distinguished political analysts: Stanley Coons, who falls more in line with the Republican Party, and Stacey Jones, who is involved with the Democratic Party. Coming up very shortly are our first poll closings and projections.
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The first state which we can call tonight is Vermont, which will fall comfortably for O'Malley. Vermont hasn't voted Republican in a presidential elections since Bush Sr. in 1988. The rest of New England will likely be much more interesting tonight as Murkowski has been surprisingly competitive in the usually solid Maine.
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The second state which we are prepared to call is Kentucky, which will fall for Murkowski, as predicted. It is yet to be seen if the state will be won with 60% of the vote like it was for Romney in 2012, however.
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South Carolina is another reliably Republican state which will cast its nine electoral votes for Murkowski. It appears that O'Malley's mid Atlantic appeal did not make its way down this far.
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Indiana will also be called for Murkowski. It is a slight surprise to see Indiana being called this early, but the state has swung significantly to the Republican Party since Obama's narrow victory in 2008, and this is surely reflective of that.
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The state of Georgia is too close to call at the present. Murkowski maintains a lead, but it is fluctuating and we need to wait for more votes to be counted to feel comfortable making a call. Georgia has undergone some big demographic changes that have pushed it further towards the Democratic Party, and the GOP is going to have to watch this state a lot more carefully in the future.
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The state of Virginia is also too close to call. O'Malley currently holds a lead, but Virginia has historically been a close and important state. Murkowski's possibility to actually win in Virginia have been labeled as slim by a number of analysts, but it is simply not clear enough to say anything yet.
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Murkowski currently dominates the electoral vote totals and popular vote counts, but it is still very early, and as we all know, anything could happen. However, Virginia has showed some favorability towards O'Malley throughout the season, and without Virginia, a Republican path to 270 becomes much more challenging. However, Murkowski could very likely make up for this by gains in the Midwest and New England.

Jones: Virginia is looking to be trending the most Democratic it has been in decades. I feel confident that O’Malley will pick it up, and no Virginia puts quite a strain on GOP victory. I know that we will not be seeing as comfortable victories in the Electoral college as President Obama has, but I think the odds are still on our side.

Coons: I wouldn’t underestimate Murkowski. She has a distinct possibility of picking up Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Maine’s 2nd as well as at-large: Virginia is not a dead end any more. The pre election polling put her at Romney states plus New Hampshire, which I would say is a very favorable map for the Republicans. I think that either person could realistically pull a victory looking forward. It is still early though, I don’t want to speculate too much before we get more info as more polls close.

[Sec. of State Superique]

An early lead in Virginia is pretty good but Vermont numbers are kind of strange...

[Heptahedron]

Welcome back to Election Night in America. It is now 7:00 PM on the East Coast, and there are a number of poll closings which we are prepared to call.


First off is a very easy call, which is Washington D.C. and its three electoral votes for O'Malley. D.C. has historically been a very strong Democratic base.
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Not far from D.C. is the state of West Virginia, which will go very strongly for Murkowski. This state has shifted drastically since its status as a Democratic stronghold in the 1990s.
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Also for Murkowski, we can call the state of Alabama and its nine electoral votes. There is a slightly depressed turnout, which was expected from the call from some social conservatives to boycott the election.
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Mississippi will also stay solidly in the Republican column. O’Malley worked hard to try to raise the African-American turnout, but the state did not budge very much.
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Next state for O'Malley will be New York. A big prize at 29 electoral votes, but an expected one.
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We can also call the state of Massachusetts for O'Malley. Massachusetts is another Democratic stronghold and Murkowski's notable popularity in New England will hardly push down his level of victory.
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The state of New Hampshire is too close to call at this time. Over the course of the election season, the state has gradually bent in favor of Murkowski, especially because her running mate, Senator Ayotte, is from New Hampshire.
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New Hampshire's neighbor, Maine, splits its electoral votes by congressional district. O'Malley will win Maine's 1st rather easily, but Maine's 2nd and Maine At-Large is too close to call. Maine is not usually a state up for grabs, but this election has created some interesting circumstances.
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Oklahoma is the next state which we are prepared to call for Murkowski. This has been a reliably Republican state, and also one that is notable for not allowing any third parties on the ballot.
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Maryland, the home state of O’Malley, will give its 10 electoral votes to him by quite a significant margin of the popular vote.
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Delaware will vote quite reliably for the Democratic Party, especially with O’Malley’s home state being it’s neighbor.
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The state of North Carolina remains too close to call at this time. Murkowski has maintained a lead in the state for quite some time, but O’Malley was never very far behind her. This state is more and more becoming a critical swing state.
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New Jersey remains solidly with  the Democratic Party. The state had a possibility to be more in play, but the GOP’s hopes were dashed with the fall of Christie.
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Rhode Island and its four electoral votes will fall reliably in line with O'Malley and the Democrats.
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Illinois is another big gain, but an expected one, at 20 electoral votes. Every election, however, the state seems to be falling more and more to the Republicans, which is a worrying trend for the Democrats.
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Connecticut is yet another relatively expected Democratic gain.
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The final call we can make at this time is Tennessee, which will fall reliably in Murkowski's column.
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The state of Ohio is too close to call. Ohio has been a classic swing state, and which way it falls may end up determining the election.
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Missouri is, rather surprisingly, too close to call at this time. It has polled in favor of Murkowski all season, but the early counts in St.Louis and suburbs have a strong Democratic lean compared to the rest of the state.
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Pennsylvania is another state which is too close to call. It has generally been a strong place for the Democrats, but the Republicans have been making a lot of inroads, and it will be interesting to see if this state will stick to its Democratic leans or not.
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O’Malley now holds a lead in the electoral vote, as well as the popular vote, but a number of states remain too close to call, and those will end up being what are critical. There are some surprises that Missouri has not been called, and nor has Georgia, which questions if the Democrats are gaining the edge in this election.

Coons: Democratic support has been increasing greatly in Georgia and North Carolina, and this is something that the GOP can only stop if they can increase their appeal to minorities, which is something I think Murkowski has been very sucessful in doing. I feel that these states should be called relatively soon for Murkowski, so there is no need to worry too much about early counts.
Jones: The Democrats do have the tide on their side, because the Republicans are gradually losing big states like Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Texas because of demographic changes. The Republican party is going to have to make major changes to its image, a part of which is dealing with its significant vocal minority of social conservatives that are turning off voters like minorities.


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Here is an update on current Senate races as of the latest poll closings. No seats have changed hands yet. The Republicans have been excited by an early victory by Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina, who defeats challenger Mike McIntyre much easier than previously thought based off of polling. Pennsylvania (Senator Toomey v. Kathleen Kane), Ohio (Senator Portman v. Tim Ryan), Illinois (Lisa Madigan v. Aaron Schock), New Hampshire (Senator Ayotte v. Carol Shea-Porter)  and Georgia (Senator Kingston v. Jason Carter) all remain too close to call. The Republicans certianly have a lot more seats up for grabs than the Democrats, which came about as a result of 2010, which was the last time Class 3 was up for election, being a Republican wave year. This may have helped them then, but it is putting them under a lot of pressure tonight.

[Niemeyerite]

I hope Ayotte at least loses her Senate seat .

Nice updates!

[Heptahedron]

Welcome back to ANN's coverage of Election Night in America. It is now 8:00 PM here on the East Coast, and more states in the country's center have closed their polls.


The first state we can call at this time is Arkansas for Murkowski. Much like West Virginia, it has swung significantly to the Republican Party since being a Democratic stronghold in the 1990s.
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Arkansas neighbor, Louisiana, can also be called for Murkowski. The state's governor, Bobby Jindal, was the first major player to endorse Murkowski after dropping out post-Iowa.
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Michigan can now be called for O’Malley. This state has wavered in Democratic support as of late, but it continues to remain strongly in the Democratic column.
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Kansas can now be called for Murkowski and the Republicans. No surprise here.
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Nebraska will also contribute its five electoral votes towards Murkowski.
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South Dakota can be called for Murkowski. Again, these states in the Great Plains are solidly Republican and are easy calls.
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North Dakota will fall in step with its neighbor. The Dakotas very consistently vote together, and this is no exception.
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Texas can be called for Murkowski at this time. A big gain at 38 electoral votes, but a fairly expected one.
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The state of Iowa is too close to call at this time. Both candidates have shown to be competitive in this state and whatever the result, it is going to be very close.
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O'Malley has a big victory in the early call of Minnesota. The home of VP nominee Amy Klobuchar was polling as a swing state, albeit giving O'Malley a minor lead, and it was not expected to be called shortly after poll closings.
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The state of Wisconsin is too close to call. It has generally displayed Democratic leans, but Murkowski has been tremendously competitive in the Midwest.
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Montana can be called for Murkowski. The Democratic Party has a fairly strong base here, but the Republicans have maintained a step ahead of them.
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New Mexico can be called for O’Malley now. This state has moved very significantly to the Democratic column after President Bush’s narrow victory here in 2004.
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Missouri, previously too close to call, can now be called for Murkowski. This was an expected gain for Murkowski, but O’Malley did perform slightly better than expected here.
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Colorado remains too close to call at this time. This state has been a fairly major swing state for a few decades, and has flipped many times.
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Arizona is also too close to call at this time. This is an expected gain for Murkowski, but the Democratic base has been growing stronger every election and it is likely that it will move into battleground status within a few years.
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The state of Georgia, previously too close to call, can now be called for Murkowski. This is a decent relief to the Murkowski campaign. Much like Arizona, this state has shifting demographics, but it will stick with its Republican leans.
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Florida is too close to call. It is a big state at 29 electoral votes and the closest one last election, so this will be a state to watch.
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Murkowski now holds a solid lead in the Electoral College and popular vote, but both of those have been fluctuating, and it may be fleeting with the solidly Democratic west coast closing relatively soon. Missouri and Georgia are reliefs to the Murkowski campaign, but the early call of Minnesota could point the other way.

Coons: This lead is pretty solid for Murkowski, and I think O’Malley’s boost on the West Coast will be temporary. She has leads in a lot of important states, and the fact that she currently has a lead in Iowa is telling of what the final result will be.
Jones: It is good to see Minnesota called so early, but I think it is one that we would see fall to the Democrats in the end anyways. I really think it is too soon to make a call on who can win, as Ohio, Iowa, Florida, Maine, and Colorado are all still less than a percentage point apart between the two and those states will surely end up deciding the election.

[Niemeyerite]

Good news for O'Malley I'd say: MN called early and Murkowski only has won in states she was sure to win for the moment.

[Heptahedron]

It is now 9:00, and the last polls have closed on the West Coast. We are also prepared to call some states that were previously too close to call. We also have some announcements to make regarding the Senate and House of Representatives. Without further ado, let us continue our coverage.


The state of Hawaii can be called for O'Malley. It will vote for him by over a 70% margin of victory, the second greatest behind District of Columbia.
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Utah can be called fairly easily for Murkowski. It has consistently been the strongest Republican state in the country for the past few elections and tonight will be no exception.
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California can be called for O'Malley. This is a huge gain at 55 electoral votes, but it is a fairly expected one.
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The state of Alaska can fairly easily be called for resident Murkowski. She will win the state with over 60% of the vote, the biggest margin of victory for a Republican since 2004.
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Idaho can be called for Murkowksi. This is another strongly Republican state.
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Washington can now be called for O'Malley. This is a fairly easy call, as Washington is fairly strongly Democratic.
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Washington's neighbor, Oregon, can now be called for O'Malley. Murkowski was speculated early on as being competitive in Oregon, but it was not to be the case.
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Nevada can also be called for O'Malley. It was considered competitive early on, but it shifted towards O'Malley towards the end of the season.
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The state of Arizona can now be called for Murkowski. It will remain in the GOP column as expected, but the state is becoming closer and closer each election cycle and it is going to become critical come next decade.
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The state of North Carolina can now be called for Murkowski. It had shown some Republican leans, but the state remains very competitive for both parties. Murkowksi's margin of victory in the state is greater than Romney's by just under a percent. This is likely a very good sign for her greater election chances.
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New Hampshire, which was also too close to call, can now be called for Murkowksi. This state had shown some Republican leans, but it remained competitive. The choice of Senator Ayotte as running mate likely wrapped up this state, much like Klobuchar did for O'Malley. This puts Murkowski at a greater number of electoral votes than Romney earned in 2012, which was a result predicted by many.
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Maine can now be called, with O'Malley earning the two At-Large electoral votes, but losing the 2nd congressional district to Murkowski. Historically, Maine has been more of a Democratic state, but President Bush came close to winning the 2nd district in 2000. Murkowski has had a decent amount of popularity in New England, more so than the last few Republican candidates. This will be the first time that Maine splits its electoral votes by district. This is one of the first big swing states to really fall, and we are approaching the time where the decision is made.
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Now all polls have closed, and O'Malley has a slim lead of 10 electoral vote, but has ended up slightly behind Murkowski in the popular vote. The result of this election will fall in the hands of Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida. Since no candidate currently shares a lead in both popular and electoral votes, this election is very likely going to come down to the wire.

Coons: The fact that Maine’s 2nd fell red and that North Carolina will go for Murkowski by a greater margin than it did for Romney are both signs that I think point towards a Republican victory. It is going to be close either way, but it just looks like the Republicans can pull it out this time. She has the rural appeal that I think can wrap up Iowa and Colorado, and Florida and Ohio will naturally swing.
Jones: Of course this is going to be a close election, but O’Malley can still pull this out. He does not need to win as many of the states still up for grabs as Murkowski does. Still of issue is the popular vote, however. We could end up with the Electoral College electing somebody who does not reflect the popular vote, which I would think is going to spell bad things for whoever ends up in the White House come January.


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At this time, we can make a couple important projections:
DEMOCRATS RETAIN MAJORITY IN SENATE
REPUBLICANS RETAIN MAJORITY IN HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

As of poll closings on the West Coast, the Democratic Party has reached a majority of 50 seats in the Senate, with a number of seats still up for grabs. Senators Ayotte and Murkowski will retain their senate seats, but it is yet to be seen what will happen with those pending results of the presidential election. Senators Portman of Ohio and Isakson of Georgia have defeated their Democratic challengers, but democratic challenger Ron Kind defeated incumbent Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, a big pickup for the Democrats. Still vulnerable are Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, Senator Kirk of Illinois, Senator Toomey of Pennsylvania, and Senator Grassley of Iowa. Also notable is that Representative David Schweikert will fill the seat of retiring Senator McCain in Arizona.

It is looking like if Senator Reid is defeated, then there will be a significant fight for the position of senate leader. An obvious choice would be Senator Durbin, but Senators Gillibrand, Warner, and Bennet have expressed interest in filling the position of Majority Leader. Whoever fills this seat will be extremely important for whichever administration takes office in January.

[badgate]

I thought that MN being called with only 6% reporting was a good sign for O'Malley. But then I realized maybe you didn't put that much thought into the % reporting in. Did you?


I'm gonna predict a narrow Murkowski win

[Sec. of State Superique]

I would never call NC with just 56% of reports....

[badgate]

I would never call NC with just 56% of reports....

Yeah, so maybe we shouldn't give the reporting percentages much thought. Let's see what the author says.

[NHI]

Great!!!

[Senator Cris]

Go Murkowski!!!

[Heptahedron]

I thought that MN being called with only 6% reporting was a good sign for O'Malley. But then I realized maybe you didn't put that much thought into the % reporting in. Did you?


I'm gonna predict a narrow Murkowski win

Oops! It says 9%, but it should be 19%.

[NHI]

I have to say; this is the best timeline I've read on this forum. You are to be commended! I can't wait for the finale!

[DKrol]

I have to say; this is the best timeline I've read on this forum. You are to be commended! I can't wait for the finale!

[Heptahedron]

I have to say; this is the best timeline I've read on this forum. You are to be commended! I can't wait for the finale!

Wow, thank you! It makes me very happy to know that all of you are enjoying this. Expect an update shortly.

[Heptahedron]

It is now 10:00 PM on the East Coast, and we are about ready to start declaring where the major swing states are going to fall and who will become the next President of the United States. Right now, we have some major projections to make.


The state of Wisconsin will cast its 10 electoral votes for O’Malley. This is not too much of a surprise, as Wisconsin has historically been a Democratic lean, but Murkowski put this state into play. Any state is big at this point in the game.
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The state of Ohio can now be called for Murkowski. She will win by a fairly slim margin in the state, and it is looking like the things that pushed her over the top are slightly better performances than Romney in 2012 with women and Hispanics, as well as in suburban areas. No Republican has won the White House without a victory in Ohio, so this is a huge victory for Murkowski.
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Virginia can now be called for O’Malley. It will be by a slightly smaller margin than Obama in 2012, however, and not as big of a margin of victory that was expected. Virginia is generally considered critical in a Republican victory, so this is a huge gain for O’Malley. However, this is not the only possible path to victory she has tonight.
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Another state that will fall for O’Malley is Pennsylvania. This is not too big of a surprise, as the state has pronounced Democratic leans, but Murkowski was unusually competitive. It is of significant concern to the Democratic party that this state took so long to call, and Pennsylvania could end up being a state that is just as heavily contested as Ohio.
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The final state which we feel comfortable calling at this time is Florida, which will vote narrowly to award its big prize of 29 electoral votes to Murkowski. The fact that Florida is not the last state to be called is a surprise on its own. Murkowski was able to wrap up this state by a much better performance than Romney had in the Tampa Bay area, as well having slightly better numbers among women and Hispanics.
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With a number of critical states called at this point, the last two states remaining up for grabs and the ones that will end up deciding the election are Iowa and Colorado. Both of these states have been usual swing states, and both of these states gave Obama around a 5% margin of victory in 2008 and 2012, but Murkowski has kept neck and neck with O'Malley in both of these states all night long. Last time that Iowa and Colorado voted Republican was for Preisdent Bush's reelection in 2004 against then Senator Kerry. Luckily, a tie in the Electoral College is out of the question, so whoever wins in these states will win the White House.

Coons: This is shaping up to be seriously close. I can't even make a solid prediction as of yet. I think that Murkowski has had a lot stronger connection with rural and Midwestern voters than O'Malley has, which is hopefully a benefit to her. If you think back to the primary season, O'Malley found himself weak in the Midwest and plains regions, where Klobuchar dominated.
Jones: You make a good point about where O'Malleys strengths do and do not lie, but the state of Colorado has a growing urban and suburban population, with a significant portion of this being Hispanic. You simply cannot rely on a more rural Western character to win over states like Colorado anymore: this is what the GOP has been interpreting wrongly and I think it is one of the main reasons why they have been losing elections.

[badgate]

Out of curiosity, how did Cubans break in Florida?

[DKrol]

I think it's a narrow Murkowski win.

[badgate]

I think it's a narrow Murkowski win.

IDK. O'Malley can win either of those states, and so could Murkowski. I think it's a true tossup. Perhaps Murkowski's suburban surge in Ohio is mirrored in Colorado; they are the swing demo for the state after all.

[Heptahedron]

10:35 PM EST


With 96% of the votes reporting, the state of Colorado and its nine electoral votes can finally be called for Murkowski. This is a narrow margin of victory, at just over 2%, and an enormous victory for the Murkowski campaign. She managed to have a fairly strong showing in the Denver suburbs, especially the southern ones surrounding Centennial, and a slightly better than expected performance among Hispanics in areas Denver and north up to Longmont and Fort Collins are very likely the big factors that flipped the state. Now only Iowa remains, it will end up deciding who is the next President of the United States.
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12:07 AM EST
- LISA MURKOWSKI PROJECTED PRESIDENT-ELECT -


With almost all votes reporting, we feel comfortable calling, based on current data, the state of Iowa and its 6 electoral votes, thereby making Senator Lisa Murkowski the projected President-Elect. She will win the state by an extremely narrow margin of victory at less than one percent and less than 80,000 votes. The same types of things which have secured her victory in states like Ohio and Colorado are looking to be in play here as well. There will be an automatic recount tomorrow morning based on how close this victory was, but we still feel comfortable with the current data provided to make a projection.
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Along with the big projection of Murkowski as President-Elect, we are ready to finalize some Senate results, and we can conclude that the Democratic Party has a net gain of two seats. A big call, and one that was only finalized minutes ago, is that former Governor Brian Sandoval of Nevada has defeated Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada. It was looking like Reid was going to be fairly safe, but Sandoval had a strong base in support in Nevada that he was able to revitalize. He capitalized on support in the Hispanic community, and attempted to paint Reid as being outdated with Nevada's interests. Another important help was surrogate campaigning for Murkowski, and even though she did not win Nevada, her support of the ticket was important.

Although the Republicans made a big victory in beheading the Senate Democrats for the time being, they had a net loss by losing three other seats. Senator Johnson in Wisconsin lost to Ron Kind, Senator Toomey of Pennsylvania lost to Kathleen Kane, and Senator Grassley of Iowa lost to Chet Culver. The Iowa Senate result is especially interesting regarding the narrow victory of the Republicans in the Iowa presidential race. However, Senator Kirk of Illinois will very narrowly be reelected over challenger Lisa Madigan. Now the battle will begin for who will lead the Democratic Party in the Senate, as the Senate is the only portion of the federal government which remain in Democratic control.


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We can now officially wrap up Election Night in America. After tonight, we are going to start seeing major changes in our Federal government. We will have a Republican in the White House, not to mention the fact that this will be the first time a woman will be President and Vice President. There is also  a very competitive decision for Senate Majority Leader that will dictate much of what President-Elect Murkowski can accomplish with congressional Democrats. We would like to thank everybody who has watched this unfold with us tonight, and we hope that you will stay with us to watch the transition of power that will take place over the next few months.

[NHI]

YAY!!!

Great timeline, I truly enjoyed this one!

[Niemeyerite]

Great TL. Thanks you!! And now you can finish Radiactive

[tmthforu94]

I'm not sure if Grassley could lose to Culver...

But this timeline has been terrific! Best graphics I have seen in a long time...