Kerry +10 in Michigan

[The Vorlon]

Kerry is up 10 in MIchigan...

Here is the link

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/MI040405president.pdf

The distribution of voters by party ID in this sample seems a bit out.

Update! - The Survey USA sample showing Bush +9 in Arizona is also off - the other way... waaaay too many Republicans in that sample...

The chart below is from PEW



In this survey: (entire sample = 717)

Republicans - 195/717 = 27%
Democrats - 269/717 = 38%
Other - 232/717 = 32%
Don't know 21/717 = 3%

In This survey - (Likely Voters = 536)

Republicans - 163/536 = 30%
Democrats - 205/536 = 38%
Other - 152/536 = 32%

MICHIGAN - Likely Kerry State - Current Estimate - Kerry +5

[Dave from Michigan]

I don't thing it's that much

[agcatter]

looking at the party ID in that sample I feel better.

[© tweed]

I think Bush, in the end, will take Michigan.

[agcatter]

Well Boss, I wish you were right for the sake of my side.  However, based on 2000 and the fact that the Muslim vote in Mich is trending more Dem, I'm pretty pessemistic for my side.

[Lunar]

I think Bush, in the end, will take Michigan.

Of course, you think Bush taking Vermont is a likely scenario, heh.

[© tweed]

I think Bush, in the end, will take Michigan.

Of course, you think Bush taking Vermont is a likely scenario, heh.

It's possible.

[Dave from Michigan]

Bush could win Michigan

[angus]

I'm not sure that Bush winning Vermont is less likely than Kerry getting ten percent more votes than bush in Michigan.

[Dave from Michigan]

Kerry will NOT win Michigan by 10%

[agcatter]

3 - 5 seems reasonable

[Dave from Michigan]

3 - 5 seems reasonable

I say 2%

[agcatter]

Why do you think Bush is slightly stronger in Michigan than he was in 2000?  Is it because he is the incumbant?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Why do you think Bush is slightly stronger in Michigan than he was in 2000?  Is it because he is the incumbant?

No, cause about 1/3 of the country can't stand him.  

[AndyTheMan]

I am in the conservative heartland of Michigan which is the southwestern part of the lower peninsula. This is probably the only region that will strongly support Bush. The East tends to be very Democratic and the northern area seems to be evenly split. I remember in 1996 when early returns had Clinton ahead of Dole in my county and the horrified television announcer said "Ottawa County has never gone democratic" Well, it didn't and therefore hell refused to freeze over for another day.

[The Vorlon]

I am in the conservative heartland of Michigan which is the southwestern part of the lower peninsula. This is probably the only region that will strongly support Bush. The East tends to be very Democratic and the northern area seems to be evenly split. I remember in 1996 when early returns had Clinton ahead of Dole in my county and the horrified television announcer said "Ottawa County has never gone democratic" Well, it didn't and therefore hell refused to freeze over for another day.

Welcome to the boards.. :0

Nice to have somebody from such a key state aboard!

How is the economy where you are, and how is affirmative action playing in your state?

[JohnFKennedy]

Vorlon, that prediction in your signature, it is identical to the 2000 result with the exception of West Virgina, isn't it?

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon, that prediction in your signature, it is identical to the 2000 result with the exception of West Virgina, isn't it?

Yes.

I have started with 2000 as a baseline, and move a state when there is enough evidence to do so...

Last month it did not look at all like 2000...

I just moved Pensylvania from Bush to Kerry, and New Hampshire from Kerry to Bush as well...

[AndyTheMan]

Vorlon, Thank you for your welcome! I have been looking at this site for a few months now and was so caught up in all the fascinating statistics that until now I didn't even realize there was a forum! From the polls I've heard on the radio this past weekend Kerry has the lead over Bush but when Nader is included his lead is slim. It could be close but I think Kerry will win the state because we have gone Democratic for the past three Presidential elections. The job situation is horrible right now with thousands of jobs going seemingly everyday. What is interesting is that Bush is being blamed for this when it is actually I think it is due to NAFTA. Perhaps he is blamed because of the Bush official's claim that exporting jobs is good and NAFTA didn't seem to have such a catastrophic impact on Michigan while Clinton was President.  There was even a story on ABC news about one town nearby where we lost a plant and the lifetime Republican mayor was seriously contemplating voting for the Democratic presidential nominee which he had never done before. As for the proposal to end affirmative action it is popular from what I have read and I think it may used by both sides as a "wedge issue" in the fall.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I am in the conservative heartland of Michigan which is the southwestern part of the lower peninsula. This is probably the only region that will strongly support Bush. The East tends to be very Democratic and the northern area seems to be evenly split. I remember in 1996 when early returns had Clinton ahead of Dole in my county and the horrified television announcer said "Ottawa County has never gone democratic" Well, it didn't and therefore hell refused to freeze over for another day.

A Democrat from Ottawa County?
This Ottawa County:


I'm really, really sorry for you... ever thought about moving to Muskegon County?

[AndyTheMan]

Al, that is it! Actually, I now live in Kent County and if you look at the map of Michigan cities from 2000 you can see my city is the only one for miles that went for Gore.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al, that is it! Actually, I now live in Kent County and if you look at the map of Michigan cities from 2000 you can see my city is the only one for miles that went for Gore.

Grand Rapids?
Gore won Grand Rapids City by 2859 votes out of 73,756 votes cast.
Although for Kent County that's almost a Detroit level of Democrat support (Gore won just 38% in Kent County).
That corner of Michigan is very Republican...

[AndyTheMan]

Al, that is it! Actually, I now live in Kent County and if you look at the map of Michigan cities from 2000 you can see my city is the only one for miles that went for Gore.

Grand Rapids?
Gore won Grand Rapids City by 2859 votes out of 73,756 votes cast.
Although for Kent County that's almost a Detroit level of Democrat support (Gore won just 38% in Kent County).
That corner of Michigan is very Republican...

You are right, Excellent! I think growing up in such a heavily Republican region perhaps made me far more critical of Republican (not necessarily conservative) ideology. I sometimes wonder if I would have been less liberal if I had been raised in one of the major Democratic regions of the state. Anyhow, it was much easier for me to see the errors of Republicans than Democrats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al, that is it! Actually, I now live in Kent County and if you look at the map of Michigan cities from 2000 you can see my city is the only one for miles that went for Gore.

Grand Rapids?
Gore won Grand Rapids City by 2859 votes out of 73,756 votes cast.
Although for Kent County that's almost a Detroit level of Democrat support (Gore won just 38% in Kent County).
That corner of Michigan is very Republican...

You are right, Excellent! I think growing up in such a heavily Republican region perhaps made me far more critical of Republican (not necessarily conservative) ideology. I sometimes wonder if I would have been less liberal if I had been raised in one of the major Democratic regions of the state. Anyhow, it was much easier for me to see the errors of Republicans than Democrats.

People often react like that... most radical leftists come from leafy suburbs for example.