Counties with strong swings in opposite directions in consecutive elections
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  Counties with strong swings in opposite directions in consecutive elections
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Author Topic: Counties with strong swings in opposite directions in consecutive elections  (Read 2393 times)
nclib
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« on: September 30, 2013, 08:54:33 PM »

Russell,   KS   R   1996   D   2000   -   Dole home county
Tyler,   WV   D   1996   R   2000      
Toombs,   GA   R   1988   D   1992      
Daggett,   UT   D   1984   R   1988      
Kent,   MI   R   1976   D   1980   -   Ford home county
Pitkin,   CO   D   1972   R   1976      
Shannon,   SD   D   1972   R   1976   -   McGovern home state
Miller,   GA   R   1972   D   1976   -   1972-6 swing reflects Carter home state
Gillespie,   TX   D   1964   R   1968   -   LBJ home state
Long,   GA   R   1960   D   1964      

Russell, KS and Kent, MI are self-explanatory. Shannon, SD, Gillespie, TX, and Miller, GA are at least partially explained by home states. Does anyone have a guess at the others?

Long, GA has been covered here and I bet it's a typo.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2013, 11:27:24 PM »

For Toombs County:

Most states swung strongly D from 84 to 88 but not so much in Georgia. Like most of south GA, Toombs county was probably undergoing a realignment in the 80s where white voters switched over to the Republican party with greater strength in each new election. It was halted somewhat by Clinton in the 90s but I think that's what was going on down there.
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DINGO Joe
dingojoe
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2013, 12:12:25 AM »

Pitkin is easy, a wealthy socially liberal ski resort region, went McGovern, Ford, gave John Anderson a high percentage of vote and ultimately quit voting GOP. 
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Nym90
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2013, 11:55:38 AM »

Tyler, WV is likely a typo also, given the huge decline in the total number of votes cast in 1996 and subsequent surge in turnout in 2000.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2013, 01:03:48 PM »

Henderson KY seems to have an unpredictable swing in every election.
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Miles
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2013, 01:42:27 PM »

St. Bernard LA
2008: 13% towards McCain
2012: 21% towards Obama
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buritobr
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2013, 08:29:36 PM »

McGovern's vote: 100% to McGovern in 1972, 100% to Ford in 1976, 100% to Carter in 1980

McGovern's family vote: problably close to 100% to McGovern in 1972, close to 100% to Ford in 1976, close to 100% to Carter in 1980

If his family were a county...
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DS0816
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« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2013, 09:28:38 AM »

Add Michigan's Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) carried for the losing candidates of 1972, 1976, and 1980. (I don't have numbers.) Obviously the middle of the three cycles involved a native son having carried the Wolverine State. But it's funny because now, and since 1988, Washtenaw County is regularly in the column for Team Blue.
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Nym90
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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2013, 06:47:24 PM »

The fact that Ford was a U of Michigan alumnus explains why he carried the county of his alma mater.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #9 on: August 10, 2014, 04:15:55 PM »

Washtenaw County, MI (seat of Univ of Mich) traded places every 4 years 1960-88:
1960: Nixon 39/61
1964: Johnson 62/38
1968: Nixon 42/47/10
1972: McGovern 51/47
1976: Ford 46/51
1980: Carter 44/42/12
1984: Reagan 48/51
1988: Dukakis 52/47
Since then it has been solidly democratic
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2014, 03:34:32 PM »

Alameda County,CA gave more support to Mc Govern in '72 (55%) than they did Humphrey in '68 (53%). 

Also more support went to Mondale in '84 (58%) than Carter's re-election campaign (48.3%)

John Kerry (75%) had more support than Al Gore (69%) against Bush

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Ebowed
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« Reply #11 on: September 07, 2014, 01:47:21 AM »

Alameda County,CA gave more support to Mc Govern in '72 (55%) than they did Humphrey in '68 (53%). 

Also more support went to Mondale in '84 (58%) than Carter's re-election campaign (48.3%)

John Kerry (75%) had more support than Al Gore (69%) against Bush



All three of those can be attributed mostly to third parties.
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memphis
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« Reply #12 on: September 07, 2014, 08:05:43 AM »

Almost every county in GA voted third party in 1968. Every county voted Republican in 1972. And every county voted Democratic in 1976.
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nclib
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« Reply #13 on: September 07, 2014, 01:12:53 PM »

Washtenaw County, MI (seat of Univ of Mich) traded places every 4 years 1960-88:
1960: Nixon 39/61
1964: Johnson 62/38
1968: Nixon 42/47/10
1972: McGovern 51/47
1976: Ford 46/51
1980: Carter 44/42/12
1984: Reagan 48/51
1988: Dukakis 52/47
Since then it has been solidly democratic

Basically it was Republican county until 1972 (voting only for LBJ from 1960-1968) and a Democratic county since (voting only for native son Ford and (barely) Reagan in a landslide) since 1972.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2014, 12:15:59 AM »

Actually California in general gave more votes to Mondale than to the re-election of Carter,when pretty much every other state swung the other way.

Also Anderson,Nader and Wallace got diddly-squat of support from Alameda. So don't try and sell that third party BS

The plain and simple truth is the county simply got more and more pissed off at corruption of Nixon and dogmatic bs Reagan and Dubya espoused. Also Reagan was a gigantic ass in the 60's as governor to one particular city in that county.

The county easily succumbs to anti-incumbent fever if the incumbent is Republican/conservative.

Also the solid GOP county of Alpine County (As in voted GOP straight from inception to this point sans the first two FDR elections....even Goldwater) went from a narrow Dubya victory to a solid Kerry victory.
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