2004 Democratic Primary

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I think the Federal election really depends on two key factors when and who. The when being when the election is called. If Martin calls it in early May like we're all being led to believe than he stands to lose a lot, the scandal will be fresh in the minds of Canadians, maybe fading but the Con.s and NDP won't let us forget.

The next important detail is who the Con.s elect as their leader. If they pick Harper, they'll win in the West, the same or as much, maybe more than last time. They will gain ground in Ontario but no further than the Ottawa River. If the pick Stronach, (dear god no!) they'll win a lot of Quebec, parts of Ontario and the West and pieces of the Maritimes. If Clement I think they'll win all over the place, Quebec, Ontario, the West, and the Maritimes, the whole lot.

Regardless the Liberals will get a government, likely a minority, but who knows.

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I agree, but by 2008 the Conservatives will be a force to be reckoned with. Hopefully so will the NDP. If you think that the Canadian people are itchy after 11 years or Liberal rule, wait until 15.

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Is this a trend down or up? Northern Ontario has been for a long time NDP territory. The Election in October 2003 was a little bit of a fluke. Ontarians desperate to rid themselves of the Progressive Conservatives, voted Liberal, even members of the NDP, they called it strategic voting. I despised it, it cost the NDP official party status due to the shift, the Liberals one quite handily, 70 seats of 103. Conservatives got 26 or 25. NDP got 7 or 8.

But as someone once told me, Governors mean nothing in the Federal elections, the same nearly applies in Canada. If the provincials are doing a good job it may convince some, and if they're doing a bad job it has the opposite effect. Case in point that provincial elections don't have great effect is the West. Right now there's 2 or 3 NDP governments out there, but they usually vote Alliance, now Conservative. Two completely different parties ideologically.

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I think the NDP has a lot to gain in the next election, their public approval went up something like 10% in the provincial election (yay!). I think they've (Liberals and Conservatives) left the door wide open in Ontario for a great NDP flood. Harper is seen as the westerner, Stronach is well... not the best choice, the Liberals have been scandaled, again. The NDP have a clean slate and are continuing to grow in the polls. In fact, the Conservatives have slipped in the polls recently, as have the Liberals, while the NDP have had continuous growth. By the May election they could reach 25%. I'm biased though.

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Regardless of who the Conservatives pick as leader, there's going to be a lot of FORMER Liberal MPs down at the Unemployment election.

I do believe the a May election could still work with the Liberals still remaining in power. The longer they stall the lower their chances get. Soon as we get to June their odds get worse. Or so I think.

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I think it's mid-2005 but you have to look at it from the point of view of Canadians. Those who aren't big Liberal fans see this as a continuing term left over from Jean Chretien. So they see them being in power since 1993. That's a LONG time in the political sense. People don't want to drag this out, we want an election, soon, cause we're tiring of the Liberals. If Pauly boy decides to wait to 2005 it'll seem like he's dragging it out for a bigger win, or more specifically a majority government.

My opinion is the longer they keep waiting to more frustated Canadians will become. 11 years is a long time, we don't want to wait 12. Besides if the election is called earlier it gives an advantage to the Liberals. The Conservative party leader won't have time to solidify power and to concentrate on working out the kinks before the election. The longer they wait the stronger the Conservatives, and specifically the NDP become.

Also yes, Michigan is the better choice, but I was asked by the people on the Fantasy Election boards to move to a Southeastern state, because of the lack of people down there.

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Well put. At the current time the Liberals are guarenteed to win a minority, if they put it off they could lose it all.

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Part of the reason he didn't do well is that they saw Chretien as a traitor to Quebec. Who ever runs there as long as they have a good record and a native son (or daughter) could do well.

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Nicely put Canadian Observer. I think the thing that bothers me most about the Sponsership Scandal is that it was Jean Chretien, I liked Chretien a lot, he's the only PM I knew of my entire life, not to mention I just liked him. He had a certain charm, now, this will ruin his reputation in the history books for sure.

Martin should call the election asap before the inquiry finds a titbit (or timbit) of information that points to him, it's a race against time Pauly, get to it.

I just don't want to see Harper in Sussex Drive, those Alliance guys have said some really crazy right-wing stuff, like returning Canada to a unilingual country. A minority Liberal, or a joint Liberal-NDP government could be excellent, that is if the NDP are given some significant role. Or a minority NDP, despite how remote that is... sigh it's such an uphill battle for them...

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I'd prefer an NDP majority government.

So would I But sadly I have to have some sort of sense of Reality. That or other Canadians laugh at you.

I wonder if the NDP find a strong issue to run on could they make it to 30% cause that could be enough to form a government or is it 40%... can't remember...

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Oh, I know that it's not required... I quess I like it though, I never wondered why, just a style, if you really want me to change it in the name of Progressiveness I would.

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Spring election now. Harper's going to have a power base in the party by the Fall. Martin has to strike quickly. Time is on the side of the opposition, the Liberals will move quickly. If Clement won they'd of moved a little slower, I think he already could of had the party behind him. If Stronach won she'd take a hell of a long time to unite the CCP. But Harper will take some time, not a lot, possibly by Autumn. A quick election will hurt Harper cause then he has to draft the platform cause there won't be time for a party convention, the Red Tories will see this as the Alliance agenda being shoved down their throats. They'll vote Liberal.

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Do you think that Harper can be a national canidate. Everytime I hear from this guy it, "I'm the one that will break into Ontario..." Sure! What about the other third of our nation? Harper is a confusing man, he'll do extremely well, or moderately ok. Vote NDP, I've heard their numbers jumped in Quebec. Quebec!!! NDP can do it!

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Wow, the NDP are seriously on the move.... Yay!

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Wow, the NDP are seriously on the move.... Yay!

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I must admit I'm not an NDP supporter.  For most Quebecers, that's a strange party.  That said I acknowledged he's in a good position to replace its party back into the places where it was strong during the Lewis-Broadbent era.

If he wants to maximize his seats standing, and really make Martin sweat, I'd advise him to campaign mainly in Ontario and especially in the city of Toronto.  Layton has the advantage to be in a leadership position and he's friendly with the Mayor.  By stealing Liberal votes in TO, he wouldn't necessarily risk the election of any conservative candidate as most CA and PC candidates were generally 3rd of 4th in the last 2000 election.

I don't know if Broadbent is still going to be candidate in Ottawa-Centre.  If he's, and wins the riding, I think he may be the first NDP candidate to make a breakthrough in the capital region.

Well if the former Leader of the NDP can't break into the area, there's only one more person to try, and that's the leader. Ottawa may just be one of those places that the NDP can't win. Looking at things.... where are the Liberals gonna hold out?

Quebec is being carved up, Maritimes are showing support for the NDP and the Cons., the West is being split by the NDP and the Tories, and all three parties are focusing in on Ontario. Do you think this could end up as an NDP/Liberal government? If it did I think Canadian politics would shift, the NDP would no longer be, "the unelectable" party. If there was a successful Liberal/NDP Parliament the NDP could win the next next election (2008?). But it may hurt the NDP, the question may be raised, what is the difference between the two, a joint-parliament could blur the lines.

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Something strange has happend to the NDP recently...

When Alexa McDonough was elected leader, the results of the first ballot looked like this:

1. Svend Robinson (unelectable hard lind leftist)
2. Alexa McDonough (wishy-washy, moderate)
3. Lorne Nystrom (electable, Third Wayer)

Robinson withdrew before the second ballot

But when Layton was elected leader the top 3 were:

1. Jack Layton (electable, pragmatist)
2. Bill Blaikie (electable, Social Gospelite)
3. Lorne Nystrom (electable, Third Wayer)

I fail to see the the trend? The NDP are going for the electable people... I wonder why they'd do that?

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They want to become more than the third party, which despite this being a multi-party system it still fits. The NDP always have their view on 24 Sussex Drive, but they aim lower and take what they can get. They make excellent opposition never the less.

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Can someone find the type of support that the NDP had before the 1988 election? I mean like weeks before, not in previous elections. I'd like to see if it is higher or lower then back than now, I have a feeling it was lower back then. The NDP could win something like 40-50 seats if that holds true.

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Does the NDP usually vote with the LPC in the parliament?

The NDP vote with the NDP

Well put, it's kind of funny, in Canada the Liberals and Conservatives shoot down eachothers legislation. The NDP actually look to their believes and a lot of the time vote against because they bill is against their policy ideas or it does not go far enough. The same thing plays out in Ontario Parliament. Liberals will say, "Why did you vote against our increased healthcare spending?" NDP, "Cause it wasn't even close to enough." Stuff like that.

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Poor BC, I couldn't stand all of those Conservatives... ew... Support for all of the parties have stalled, slow news week in Canadian politics, Stephen Harper was elected yes, and the budget came out, but in general that didn't move voters much. Something big will have to happen to shake the numbers up again.

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Poor BC, I couldn't stand all of those Conservatives... ew... Support for all of the parties have stalled, slow news week in Canadian politics, Stephen Harper was elected yes, and the budget came out, but in general that didn't move voters much. Something big will have to happen to shake the numbers up again.

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... Another scandal may shake it again ...

I meant something like the election call, or some sort of powerful issue. The Liberals need a strong issue.

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I think that the CPC might finish a distant third in urban ontario...just a vibe..

That looks quite likely... (call it the Layton-Miller effect) but they are probably going to give the Liberals a scare in the "905" suburbs.

I live in the 905. Nice place, it will likely go Liberal, Conservative, and NDP. Usually the 905 work as a block, however, I think that since this election is really getting close I think that the 905 could break on the issues. But I content that the Cons might not do too well here, or the Liberals, they have a bad taste in their mouths from both the Federal and Provincial levels for both parties.

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What districts constitute the '905 suburbs'?

Go to http://www.elections.ca/scripts/eddb2/Default.asp?L=E&Page=SearchStart  All of those ridings surrounding Toronto is the 905.

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My Tentative prediction map:



No shaded colors YET, Iw ill get to that...maybe.

The Liberals to win in BC? NS? and NB? Wow. I would of thought that the Cons would win BC, and maybe the Liberals will win the east, but the NDP will be a very close second.

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I was watching Question Period on CTV, between visits to the U.S., the G8, and the actions taken here lately, it is possible that the election will not be held until June. If I were Martin I'd find the big issue, like Gay Marriage, run on it, Gay marriage would hurt the NDP, but help the conservatives, so who knows. What should be the Liberal's big issue?

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