2004 Democratic Primary

[Kevinstat]

One thing I read is that the new boundaries "come into force effective on the first dissolution of Parliament that occurs after August 25, 2004."  Is Parliament dissolved on the day the Prime Minister calls a new election, is it election day, or is it some other time.  Regardless of which day it is, I think there's a good chance that the coming elections will be held under the existing district lines.  What do you people think?

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Kevinstat]

Japan today uses a two-tier system for elections to it's House of Representatives.  300 of its 480 members are chosen by single-member districts while the other 180 are chosen by proportional representation.  It is possible that many voters voted for parties other than the LDP in the proportional vote but voted for the LDP in the single-member-district vote.  In 2000, the LDP received only 28 percent of the proportional vote but received 41 percent of the single-member-district vote, probably enough to win a large majority of those seats since there were several sizable other parties.  Are the percentage results shown above for the proportional part of the vote, the single-member-district part, or some average of the two.  My guess is that they are for the proportional part, and that the LDP won a higher percentage of the nationwide single-member district vote than the Democratic Party, thus making it easier to understand why the LDP won the most seats, since over 60% of the representatives are chosen from single-member districts.  I may be mistaken, however, and if someone knows better please correct me.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Kevinstat]

Hey, I like Hugh Grant.  "Four Weddings and a Funeral" is my favorite Romantic Comedy.  His movies since then that I've seen haven't been as good, but they're still enjoyable, although "Mickey Blue Eyes" was kind of stupid.

[Kevinstat]

www.electionprediction.com has finally started doing the Federal election.

cool

(I'm trying to combat my reputation for only posting long, infrequent posts )

Sincerely,

me

[Kevinstat]

Remember, everyone, that the existing constituencies will be used for the coming federal election if Martin drops the writ before August 25.  So if the Martin feels his party will have a better chance under the existing district lines, which is fairly likely since new districts would likely decrease the impact of incumbency (although I know it may not mean much in Canada where people are effectively voting for the parties and their leaders) and allow the scandal to have more impact, then he can call an election at an earlier date.  If he feels, contrary to what some here say, that the passage of time will help his party but the new district lines will not, look for him to call the election very shortly before August 25.  Such a move would likely irritate many people, though, since it would be seen as self-serving and would delay a more equitable distribution of seats.  People in provinces (Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia) and parts of provinces that would gain more representation under the new district lines would likely be especially unhappy, while some people who would not gain representation or would even lose some might be grateful to the Liberals (the party might have an easier time holding the Cardigan rindings in P.E.I. and some Quebec ridings, for example).

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Kevinstat]

Maybe Al was saying that the NDP preferring electable but principled leaders is strange for them.

[Kevinstat]

I've noticed that www.electionprediction.com uses the new ridings for predicting the coming Canadian Federal Election.  It may be that they have information to suggest that Martin, hoping for the sponsorship scandal to die down, will not drop the writ until August 25 or later, and having people make predictions for both the old and new ridings would be very confusing.  Parties have already started chosing nominees for the election (presumably for the new ridings) though, which makes me wonder if it isn't set in stone that the new ridings will be used for the next election, whenever it is called and held.  Can somebody confirm one way or the other if it is certain that the new ridings will be used?  And if not, can someone tell me if the parties are choosing nominees for the old ridings, the new ridings, both, or if it varies from party to party and riding to riding?

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Kevinstat]

I've noticed that www.electionprediction.com uses the new ridings for predicting the coming Canadian Federal Election.  It may be that they have information to suggest that Martin, hoping for the sponsorship scandal to die down, will not drop the writ until August 25 or later, and having people make predictions for both the old and new ridings would be very confusing.  Parties have already started chosing nominees for the election (presumably for the new ridings) though, which makes me wonder if it isn't set in stone that the new ridings will be used for the next election, whenever it is called and held.  Can somebody confirm one way or the other if it is certain that the new ridings will be used?  And if not, can someone tell me if the parties are choosing nominees for the old ridings, the new ridings, both, or if it varies from party to party and riding to riding?

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

I'm not sure, but I think an amendment to the Federal Election Laws has been passed by Parliament.  This amendment permits the enforcement of a new riding map 6 months after its creation (instead of one year in the former law).  Hence, the new electoral map is in place today (no April fool here)

I just verified that the coming election will definately be held using the new districts.  According to http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?section=cir&document=index&dir=rep&lang=e&textonly=false , "The 2003 Representation Order comes into force upon the first dissolution of Parliament that occurs after April 1, 2004."  I thought I had checked that very page after Canadian Observer let me know about the aleged ammendment to the Federal Election Laws (which was actually on April 1), so perhaps that page wasn't updated until after that date.  Thank you to Al and Canadian Observer for attempting to answer my question.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Kevinstat]

In September of 1993, when the Liberals were polling lower than they are now, what wast the result of the October election expected to be?  A Progressive Conservative majority government?  A Progressive Conservative minority government?  A Liberal minority government?  Did people expect another election to be called.  It's hard to believe the Progressive Conservatives could have been expected in September to win a majority of seats since they were so badly defeated only a month later, winning only two seats.  I know the results of the election were a shock, but what did people expect at various points in that campaign (both before and after the dissolution of parliament, and including election day before the exit polls)?  If anyone could give me some information on this I would appreciate it.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Kevinstat]

I'll add an entry for Canada to Al's list of changes from the 2000 election to the Envioronics Poll, rounding the 2000 percentages to the nearest integer.

Canada
BQ no change
CPC -7%
LPC -2%
NDP +10-11% (I'm not sure whether the NDP got just above 8.5% in 2000 or just below)

When you look at these numbers, it seems at first like the Liberals are positioned to retain a majority of the seats.  But then you will realize, as I did, that in the 2000 election the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives each fielded candidates in many of the ridings, thus helping the other parties including the Liberals.  In the future, I might make a list like Al's, but one that describes the CPC an extention of one or the other of the two parties that combined to form it (or perhaps the larger one in each province).

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Kevinstat]

Just for fun, I decided see what the results of the 2000 Federal Election (in terms of the number of seats gained by each party) would have been both transposed onto the new ridings (which has already been done, see http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?section=cir&document=index&dir=tran&lang=e&textonly=false ) and with votes for both the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Consevative Party transferred to the Conservative Party of Canada.  To save time, I'm just going to list the riding names and party abreviations in English where both languages are used and the spellings differ.  To save even more time, I will only list the new ridings where the CA and PC combined recieved the most votes but niether party recieved the most votes by itself.

Newfoundland and Labrador:
LPC 5 (no change)
CPC 2 (both PC seats)
% of the vote: LPC 44.9%, CPC 38.3%, NDP 13.1%, Others 3.7%

Prince Edward Island:
LPC 3 (would lose Cardigan)
CPC 1 (would gain Cardigan)
% of the vote: LPC 47.0%, CPC 43.4%, NDP 9.0%, Others 0.5%

Nova Scotia:
CPC 5 (all PC seats)
LPC 3 (no change)
NDP 3 (no change)
% of the vote: CPC 38.7%, LPC 36.5%, NDP 24.0%, Others 0.9%

New Brunswick:
CPC 5 (all PC seats plus Fredericton)
LPC 4 (would lose Fredericton)
NDP 1 (no change)
% of the vote: CPC 46.3%, LPC 41.7%, NDP 11.7%, Others 0.3%

Atlantic Provinces overall: LPC 15, CPC 13, NDP 4
% of the vote: CPC 41.5%, LPC 40.7%, NDP 16.6%, Others 1.2%

Quebec:
BQ 38 (no change)
LPC 36 (no change)
CPC 1 (the one PC seat)
% of the vote: LPC 44.2%, BQ 39.9%, CPC 11.7%, NDP 1.8%, Others 2.3%

Ontario:
LPC 78 (would lose Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale, Burlington, Clarington—Scugog—Uxbridge, Dufferin—Caledon, Elgin—Middlesex—London, Grey—Bruce—Owen Sound, Haldimand—Norfolk, Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock, Kitchener—Conestoga, Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington, Leeds—Grenville, Nepean—Carleton, Niagara Falls, Niagara West—Glanbrook, Northumberland—Quinte West, Oshawa, Ottawa West—Nepean, Oxford, Perth—Wellington, Prince Edward—Hastings, St. Catharines, Simcoe—Grey, Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry, Thunder Bay—Rainy River, Wellington—Halton Hills and York—Simcoe)
CPC 28 (both CA seats plus Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale, Burlington, Clarington—Scugog—Uxbridge, Dufferin—Caledon, Elgin—Middlesex—London, Grey—Bruce—Owen Sound, Haldimand—Norfolk, Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock, Kitchener—Conestoga, Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington, Leeds—Grenville, Nepean—Carleton, Niagara Falls, Niagara West—Glanbrook, Northumberland—Quinte West, Oshawa, Ottawa West—Nepean, Oxford, Perth—Wellington, Prince Edward—Hastings, St. Catharines, Simcoe—Grey, Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry, Thunder Bay—Rainy River, Wellington—Halton Hills and York—Simcoe)
NDP 0 (the transposition alone takes its one seat away)
% of the vote: LPC 51.5%, CPC 38.0%, NDP 8.3%, Others 2.2%

Manitoba:
CPC 7 (all CA and PC seats plus Charleswood—St. James and Kildonan—St. Paul)
NDP 4 (no change)
LPC 3 (would lose Charleswood—St. James and Kildonan—St. Paul)
% of the vote: CPC 44.9%, LPC 32.5%, NDP 20.9%, Others 1.7%

Saskatchewan:
CPC 11 (all CA seats plus Palliser and Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar)
LPC 2 (no change)
NDP 1 (would lose Palliser and Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar)
% of the vote: CPC 52.5%, NDP 26.2%, LPC 20.7%, Others 0.6%

Prairie Provinces (Manitoba and Saskatchewan) overall: CPC 18, LPC 5, NDP 5
% of the vote: CPC 48.5%, LPC 27.0%, NDP 23.4%, Others 1.2%

Alberta:
CPC 27 (all CA seats plus Edmonton Centre)
LPC 1 (would lose Edmonton Centre)
% of the vote: CPC 72.3%, LPC 20.9%, NDP 5.4%, Others 1.3%

British Columbia:
CPC 30 (all CA seats plus Burnaby—Douglas)
LPC 5 (no change)
NDP 1 (would lose Burnaby—Douglas)
% of the vote: CPC 56.7%, LPC 27.7%, NDP 11.3%, Others 4.3%

The Territories (% of the vote, with winning parties indicated):
Yukon Territory: CPC 35.2% (win, gains Yukon), LPC 32.5% (loses Yukon), NDP 31.9%, Others 0.4%
Northwest Territories: LPC 45.6% (win), CPC 27.7%, NDP 26.7%
Navanut: LPC 69.0% (win), NDP 18.3%, CPC 8.2%, Others 4.5%

The Territories overall: LPC 2 seats, CPC 1 seat
% of the vote: LPC 45.8%, NDP 26.8%, CPC 26.2%, Others 1.2%

CANADA overall: LPC 142 seats (46.1%), CPC 118 seats (38.3%), BQ 38 seats (12.3%), NDP 10 seats (3.2%), Others 0 seats
% of the vote: LPC 40.8%, CPC 37.7%, BQ 10.7%, NDP 8.5%, Others 2.3%

I have finally finished.  The Liberals would lose 32 seats (from what they would have with the transposition but without the CA-PC merger) and their majority in the House of Commons in this case scenario, with 26 of them from Ontario.  I know that not all of the CA and especially PC votes will go to the CPC, but this post could be a benchmark for what the polling numbers indicate.  The Liberals would likely need to do better than they did in 2000 in terms of percentage of the vote in order to keep their majority, and before the sponsorship scandal that seemed like a certainty.  Now, however, as anyone who has followed this thread knows, it certainly isn't.

While the Conservatives and the New Democrats are on opposite sides of the Liberals, in a way the Liberals could take comfort in the high NDP polling numbers since it means the Conservatives are doing worse given their own (the Liberal's) numbers.  If Liberal support were constant and above all other parties, they would likely benefit from the opposition being more closely divided.  Of course there's a good chance that most supporters of all three major opposition parties in Canada would vote for the Liberals before either of the other two, if the Liberals lose support to the NDP it is probably not as bad as them losing support to the Conservatives.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Kevinstat]

New Ipsos-Reid poll: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2199

"Volatile Voters Bounce Grits Back Into Majority Territory (40% +5) As Conservatives Stumble (23% -5)

NDP 18% (Unchanged), Bloc 11% (Bloc +1 at 46% with Grits at 33% in Quebec), Green 5% (Unchanged)

Seat Model Projects Liberals Taking 153-157 Seats, Conservatives 66-70 Seats, Bloc 58-62 Seats, NDP 19-23 Seats

155 Seats Needed For Majority

Majority (59%) Think Federal Liberals Don’t Deserve To Be Re-Elected And Time Another Party Given Chance To Govern Country"

[Kevinstat]

The Liberals' recovery continues:

from http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2226 :

"Potential Liberal Majority Gets More Comfortable

Liberal vs. Bloc Gap Closes In Quebec Conservatives Falter In Atlantic Canada But Gain In Prairies NDP Slip

Seat Range Model Projects Liberals With Potential Majority: 160-164 Seats, Conservative 66-70 Seats, Bloc 56-60 Seats, NDP 18-22 Seats

155 Seats Needed For Majority"

[Kevinstat]

If Ipsos-Reid is accurate, it looks like the Liberals' sponsorship scandal setback is over.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2234

"Liberals Move Into Solid Majority Territory But Voters Still Volatile

Liberals (40%), Conservatives (24%), NDP (15%), Bloc (46% In Quebec), Green (5%)

Seat Model Projects Liberals With 171-175 Seats, Conservatives 56-60 Seats, Bloc 54-58 Seats, NDP 17-21 Seats If Vote Held Today 155 Seats Needed For Majority"

[Kevinstat]

I'm not a fan of either firm... Ipsos-Reid is a "little" erratic...

Well at least Ipsos-Reid doesn't make you wait two months to see the latest trends, as Envioronics seems to.  I'm looking forward to seeing the next Envioronics poll, since they are supposably the Creme de La Creme of Canadian polling firms.

Edited to replace while with well.

[Kevinstat]

Thanks for the invite, Nym.  I registered last night, but I'm thinking of changing my name to Kevinstat since most people use their screen names as their names in the Atlas Fantasy Forum.  You'll be happy to know I registered with your party.  I have a strong independent streak, however, and while I vote nearly 100% Democratic in real elections, I am not to be taken for granted in the Atlas Fantasy elections.

I have gotten behind in my Ipsos reporting.  Now that the election has been called, other polls are sure to occur more frequently, lessening one of Ipsos-Reid's main advantages.  Here are the last two Ipsos-Reid polls that actually include voter intentions by party:

May 20, 2004 ( http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2241 )

"Into The Election Window:

Overall Vote Stable Since Last Poll -- Liberals (39%), Conservatives (26%), NDP (15%), Bloc (48% In Quebec vs. 28% Liberals), Green Party (5%)

Liberals In Majority Territory If Vote Held Today, But Voter Dynamic Volatile And Minority Lurks

Paul Martin Trails Other Leaders Badly (-26) On Momentum With Jack Layton (+9) And Stephen Harper (+8) Having More Traction"

-----

May 22, 2004 ( http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2246 )

"Liberals Flirt With Minority Status

Liberals Slip To 35% (-4), Conservatives Hold At 26%, NDP 18% (+3)

In Quebec, Bloc Quebecois Has Widened Lead Over Liberals To 22 Points (50% vs. 28%)

Seat Projection Model Shows Liberals With Potential 158-162 Seats, Conservatives 66-70 Seats, NDP 17-21 Seats, And Bloc 59-63 Seats, If Vote Held Today"

[Kevinstat]

How is it determined whether the minority government is a Liberal minority government, Conservative minority government, or other?  Could the Liberals form a government with the NDP or the BQ (or both) that could be described as a Liberal minority government even if the Conservatives won the most seats?  The way some people talk about it makes be think that which party wins a plurality of seats can make a difference beyond just that that party would need a smaller percentage of "third party" MPs in the coalition to form a government.

Also, does anyone think the Conservatives have a shot at winning a majority government?  If the NDP vote in key ridings shot up at the Liberals expense or the Conservatives broke through in Quebec and the Maritimes it could happen.  I'm surprised that neither they nor the NDP seem to have broken through in Quebec, where it seems many people are voting for the Bloc not because they want soveriegnty for Quebec but because they are disenchanted with the Liberals, especially Martin.  When the Liberals were kicking but in Quebec pre-sponsorgate, though, Martin led Duceppe in support for prime minister by a far larger margin then the Liberals led the BQ, so perhaps there was high support for soverieignty all along that was only held down by Martin's then-popularity.  Most likely it's a combination of that and the fact that the NDP and (in particular) the Harper Conservatives turn off Quebec voters.

If the Conservatives won a majority government and the government was popular and seemed strong heading into the next election, the New Democrats might make serious gains at the Liberal's expense in the polls and until eventually (it might take a few elections) they had more seats in Parliament (or were poised to win more) than the Liberals.  You then might see the Liberals decline to where the NDP has been in recent years, and the Canadian party system would more resemble that of the U.S. (apart from the presence of a strong separtist party in Quebec).

Have the Bloc Quebecqois lost ground in Quebec?  They seemed to be headed for more seats there recently.  So maybe the Conservatives are breaking through there.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Kevinstat]

Nobody has yet answered my question as to how is it determined which party gets to form a minority goverment if no party wins a majority of seats in the House of Commons.   If the Liberals won more seats then the Conservatives but the Bloc Quebecois plus the Conservatives won a majority of seats and were willing to form a coalition, could/would the two parties form a government together even if they had not been part of any arguable coalition before the election, or would the resulting governent have to include the Liberals?  If someone could answer this question for me I would appreciate it.

[Kevinstat]

Thanks for answering my question, Trilobyte!  Thank you also Al, New Federalist, and Siege40.

In this case, the three most likely scenarios at this point seem to be that the Liberals and New Democrats receiving a combined majority of seets (if the Grits continue their recovery and there is effective tactical voting among supporters of both parties), the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois (but not the Liberals and the NDP) receiving a combined majority of seets (which seems quite likely now) and the Liberals, the NDP and the Bloc (but no two of those parties) receiving a combined majority of seats (if the Grits get really hammered).  Between these three possibilities is the prospect of independent MPs holding the ballance of power (between the Liberals and NDP on the one hand and the opposition on the other or between the Liberals and BQ on the one hand v. the opposition on the other).  At this point, it doesn't seem likely that any party will win a majority of seats in the House of Commons, but you never know.  Wouldn't it be something if a bunce of voters who disliked Martin because of the scandal, thought Harper was too extreme and either lived outside of Quebec or opposed soveriegnty for Quebec (and who may have been supporting the BQ as a protest against Martin) suddenly shifted their support to the NDP, resulting in an NDP majority in the House of Commons?  I know there's not much chance of that happening, but a guy can dream, can't he?

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau