2004 Democratic Primary

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Here's what the Guardian says:

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives/page/0,9067,823067,00.html

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Naturally as I'm a Labour supporter, I'm delighted that the Tories have decided to rip themselves into tiny little pieces in front of the Media.
It's a shame that IDS looks to be on the way out, as he was a great electoral asset for us.
If it's Howard or Davis I'm going to have so much fun!

The following possible candidates are on the LibDems "decapitation list":

Michael Howard
David Davis
Oliver Letwin
Theresa May

Wonderfull!
Of course IDS could still suvive the Vote.

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I'm re-starting some of the discussions from the old forum.

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I'm re-starting some of the discussions from the old forum.

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I'm re-starting some of the discussions from the old forum.

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I thought I'd start this again over here.
The Districts are listed by Name and by Number.

PENNSYLVANIA
01. Philadelphia South=Robert Brady D
02. Philadelphia North=Chaka Fattah D
03. Erie-Butler=Philip English R
04. Allegheny=Melissa Hart R
05. Susquehanna West=John Peterson R
06. Chester-Berks=Jim Gerlach R
07. Chester=Curt Weldon R
08. Bucks=Jim Greenwood R
09. Tuscarora=Bill Shuster R
10. Susquehanna East=Donald Sherwood R
11. Wilkes-Barr=Paul Kanjorski D
12. Johnstown=John Murtha D
13. Philadelphia-Mifflin=Joseph Hoeffel D
14. Pittsburgh=Micheal Doyle D
15. Allentown=Patrick Toomey R
16. West Chester=Joseph Pitts R
17. Harrisburg=Tim Holden D
18. Westmoreland=Tim Murphey R
19. Gettysburg=Todd Platts R

ILLINOIS
01. Chicago-Southside=Bobby Rush D
02. Chicago Heights=Jesse Jackson Jr D
03. Chicago West=William Lipinski D
04. Chicago-Cicero=Luis Gutierrez D
05. Chicago-Northside=Rahm Emanuel D
06. DuPage=Henry Hyde R
07. Chicago Central=Danny Davis D/DSA
08. McHenry-Lake=Phillip Crane R
09. Chicago Northside=Janice Schakowsky D
10. North Chicago=Mark Steven Kirk R
11. Joliet=Gerald Weller R
12. East St Louis and the Valleys=Jerry Costello D
13. Will-DuPage=Judy Biggert R
14. Batavia-Henry=Dennis Hastert R*
15. Wabash=Timothy Johnson R
16. Rockford=Donald Manzullo R
17. Springfield-Moline=Lane Evans D
18. Springfield-Peoria-Illinois River=Ray Lahood R
19. Kaskakia-Lincon=John Shimkus R

GEORGIA
01. Okefenokee-Atlantic=Jack Kingston R
02. Cherokee and Seminole=Sanford Bishop D
03. Jefferson Long=Jim Marshall D
04. Stone Mountain=Denise Majette D
05. Atlanta=John Lewis D
06. Fulton-Cobb=Johnny Isakson R
07. Dahlonega=John Linder R
08. Peachtree=Michael Collins R
09. Egmont=Charles Norwood R
10. John Ross=Nathen Deal R
11. Berry=Phil Gingrey R
12. Savannah=Max Burns R
13. Luther King=David Scott D

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Brown is by far the most popular politician in the U.K at the moment.

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IDS might still pull it off you know...
My ideal result would be IDS winning by about 2 votes.
Result: A leader with no authority, who is also spitefull and vindictive, thus leading to expulsions and splinter groups.

But I'm not making a prediction. Ah no...You're not foolin' me...

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From the Guardian website:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

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English, your M.P(Davis) has pulled out in favour of Howard, as have Letwin, Fox and Dorrell.

Make way for a "Stop Howard" campaign...
BBC political correspondent says that Labour probably relish the possiblity of Howard as he has a hell of a lot of baggage.

The Guardian has profiled two new possibles:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

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Go Michael Go!
An unreconstructed thatcherite who opposes the minimum wage.
Woo Hoo! It's a Labour/Liberal dream come true!

He's also a HUGE Hypocrite:
For all his extremist anti-asylum rhetoric, he is actually the son of a Romanian refugee and his real name is Michael Hecht.

Go Michael Go!

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Yeo seems to have pulled out.

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Mississippi's electoral laws make a close race even more interesting:
If no candidate gets over 50% it goes to the Democrat dominated State House.
In other words, Barbour could end up ahead of Musgrove by a decent margin, but still lose.

Lousiania is also very close.
The GOP seem to have the advantage in Kentucky...but only just.

All three are worth a watch.

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Actually I want Michael Howard(nee Hecht) against Micheal Kerr(the Earl of Ancram).

A hypocrite against an Earl?
Wonderful!

May is worth a watch, as are several of the newer M.P's, and some of the old bastard brigade...

Watch for an IDS loyalist candidate.
Maybe Owen Paterson.

Also watch out for Conway. He's apparently not pleased with Davis jacking it in.

Remember...a week to go yet...

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Maybe some of the newer M.P's?

Chris Bryant(Rhondda) perhaps? Tom Watson(West Bromwich East)?

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A cruel responce to that would be Bush's poor polling numbers.
But I'm not a bastard and won't.

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Howard *is* a dream opposition leader from Labour's point of view. The Tories seem to want to replace an uncharismatic, unpopular right-winger, with an uncharismatic, hated right-winger.
Who is also on the Liberals "decapitation" list...

Who hoo!

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Labour 420-380
Conservative 200-100
Liberal Democrat 130-20
SNP 8-1
PC   5-0
Independent 1(Dr Taylor if he runs again)

Lab 48-36
Con 24-34
LD   18-30

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The LibDems are not even close to being a threat to Labour in the Northern Cities.
They are no-where in Newcastle, have been seriously hurt by council cock-ups/corruption in Sheffield and Liverpool, and them holding a seat in L'Pool prior to '97 was only because of the "Alton Factor".

I have not a clue why they harp on about N.U.T, they did finish second in N.U.T Central and N.U.T East-Wallsend, but they need to topple majorities of 33.2% and 43.4%
It is not going to happen.

Very few Labour seats are actually under threat from the LibDems, and they would be better off decapitating the Tories(which is actually their official policy).

Howard, May, Davis and Letwin are all in *serious* trouble next time round.

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Paxman(the "Evil Jeremy") repeated a question to him *14 times* in 1997...and he still couldn't give a straight answer!

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Don't you mean "democrat"?

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jmf... What matter isn't what the economy is doing, it's what voters think the economy is doing.

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Oddly enough all three Gubernatorial Elections are looking very close this year.
No landslides in the offing at all.

My "guesses":

Mississippi:
54% chance of Barbour winning the most votes BUT a 60% chance of the election being decided in the State House.

Kentucky:
55% chance of a GOP win, 45% chance of Dem win.

Louisiana:
51% chance of a Dem win, 49% chance of a GOP win.

In otherwords, I'm not making any definate predictions, as all three look close.

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So could 11, 12 and 14.

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For some Interesting stuff on Howard see http://www.tom-watson.co.uk/archives/001071.htm and http://the-thinker.blogspot.com