Saskatchwan General Provencial Election 2003
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:38:22 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Saskatchwan General Provencial Election 2003
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Saskatchwan General Provencial Election 2003  (Read 14035 times)
Kevinstat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,823


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 31, 2003, 11:00:15 PM »

I had posted a lot earlier but lost it all so I'll just list some sites for now.

http://www.elections.sk.ca/home.php - government site on Saskatchewan elections

http://www.cbc.ca/saskvotes2003/ - leading canadian network's site on the election

You should check out the "Parties and Leaders" section on the second site.  It's very interesting.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2003, 01:39:56 PM »

It'll be close(as usual) and will have utterly no impact on the federal scene(as usual).

But anyhow...
The polls indicate a very close contest with the NDP finishing just ahead, but probably reliant on Liberal support(again).

But I don't know. Earlier this year the Sask Party looked clear favourites, but they have squandered the initiative.

Sask is the ONLY provincial election this year I haven't had a "gut feeling" on who is going to win...
Logged
Canadian observer
Rookie
**
Posts: 157


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2003, 02:07:16 PM »

Polls weren't reliable in Sask 1999 election.  I read somewhere they predicted an NDP victory by a margin of 20% in popular votes.

Chances are it would still be the case in 2003.  Elwin Hermanson, Sask Party leader, criticized the recent polls' reliability on the basis of his own internal polls.

In Canada, during a campaign, it's very rare to see a politician who questions polls' reliability in public.  The last one I remember was Bernard Landry, former Quebec Premier, in 1995 during the referendum campaign.  At that time most polls gave a comfortable lead for the NO, but Landry pointed to YES' own internal polls which put both options closer in terms of votes.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2003, 06:02:32 AM »

Exactly. It's WAY too close to call, and another minority/coalition of some description looks likely...
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2003, 03:48:29 PM »

What is the exact date of the Sask election?  I can't find it on CBC.
Logged
Kevinstat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,823


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2003, 09:39:57 PM »

The date of the election is Wedensday, November 5, 2003.  I found that on the Election 2003 page of Elections Saskatchewan.  My prediction was that the Saskatchewan party would win a majority of the seats, but I haven't been following this at all.  It seemed like the NDP government just barely hung on last time and was not very popular, but some other people here likely have a better idea of things than I do.  One thing though, why would the results in Saskatchewan not make any difference at the federal level?  A Saskatchewan Party victory could give the Canadian Alliance some momentum in that provence for the coming National Election, and would perhaps cause some high-ranking members of the current government to lose prestige as members of the minority party and limit their ability to challenge Alliance incumbents in the coming election.  If the liberals could gain several seats, it could help Martin be more competitive in that state.  You guys probably know better than I about these connections (or lack therof).  I have to get going, but I wish you all a great evening.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau
Logged
Canadian observer
Rookie
**
Posts: 157


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2003, 10:43:55 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2003, 12:41:33 AM by Canadian observer »

Provincial and federal electoral dynamics are very disconnected in Canada.  eh ! The average Canadian voter likes to split his ticket ;-)

Although provincially Sask is NDP territory , the Canadian Alliance hold 10 of the 14 federal Commons seats of the province.  Except Alberta, the straight ticket phenomenon (which I'd define, in the Canadian sense, as a majority of one province's provincial and federal seats under the same party [or ideology]) is a bit rare.

Currently, we may consider the Ontarian electorate put a straight Liberal ticket in October...  It would surely happen in Quebec next Spring.

Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2003, 04:08:16 AM »

Saskatchwan is the province in Canada most likely to vote split.

The federal NDP's best decade in Sask was the '80's... which was their worst provincially.

Saskatchwan is very rural(it's the only province in Canada to not have a single federal urban riding), and it's voters like populist parties, something that the NDP, CA and Sask Party all have in common.

Opinion polls are very rare in Sask(as far as I can find only *2* have been published this year...), and guessing the outcome of elections in Sask is like the "good old days".

Polls are also unreliable when published because people in Sask like to make their minds up on polling day(leading to upsets like the Sask Party doing well in 1999, and the federal NDP avoiding the wipeout in Sask that most polls had marked them down for).

The CA is heading for a mauling in Sask next federal election, no matter how well the SP do.
The voters of Sask have decided that they are "establishment"... which means they've had it.
It would take a microscopic swing for the NDP to pick up 2 seats from the CA... and they have other seats on their hit-list as well...
Logged
Canadian observer
Rookie
**
Posts: 157


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2003, 12:47:28 AM »

The CA is heading for a mauling in Sask next federal election, no matter how well the SP do.
The voters of Sask have decided that they are "establishment"... which means they've had it.
It would take a microscopic swing for the NDP to pick up 2 seats from the CA... and they have other seats on their hit-list as well...
The federal Liberals have their hit-list too... the preys : CA MP's.  The most recent polls put Liberal ahead in all western provinces.  The NDP shouldn't put too high hopes for growth in the West.  Based on what I read, heard (and feel) on the West, they want Paul Martin, not Layton.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2003, 06:24:11 AM »

The NDP don't need to gain many votes to gain a fair amount of seats out West.
With the exception of Vancouver and Winnipeg they are not usually in direct competition with the Liberals.

Also gains are relative. 10 seats wouldn't be a lot for the Liberals, but would be for the NDP.

How many CA MP's are not on either the Liberals or the NDP's hit list?
Even Stockwell Day is being targeted(and how I would love the Liberals to take him out).

I think the answer is rural Alberta.
Logged
Kevinstat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,823


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2003, 09:54:31 AM »

Here are the results, according to CBC:

NDP: 44.62% of the popular vote, 30 seats (51.7%)
Sask. Party: 39.35% of the popular vote, 28 seats (48.3%)
Liberals: 14.17% of the popular vote, 0 seats
Other parties and independent candidates: 1.87% of the popular vote, 0 seats

Interestingly, if you take the NDP's share of the two party (NDP and Sask. Party) vote, it comes out to 51.4%, very close to the percentage of seats (amoung the top two parties and overall) that it won.  So the Saskatchewan Party can't claim to have been cheated like in 1999, where they won more popular votes than the NDP but won fewer seats.  The Liberals must be really unhappy though, as 14% of the vote is a lot to get and still not get win a single seat.  I have to get going, but I'll probably post some more later.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2003, 01:22:13 PM »

Brief analysis(more stuff soon):

1. Calvert turned a 7% deficit into a 5% lead.
2. The turnout was high despite the weather.
3. The NDP benifited from a late swing(v. common is Sask)
4. Although the SP broke through in Saskatoon, the NDP broke through in rural areas.
5. Clay Serby broke the "Ag Minister" jinx.
6. Every cabinet minister was relected... except the Liberal turncoats.
7. Calvert was percieved by the voters as every bit the United Church Minister... while Hermason was percieved as every bit the professional politician.
8. The Liberals were shut out.
9. The NDP has won a fouth term, something it has not done since it's glory days in the 1950's.
10. Ralph Klein coming out in favour of the SP may have sunk them.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 07, 2003, 04:21:20 AM »

From CBC:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 08, 2003, 11:56:29 AM »

But what effect will this have on the federal election?

It won't have any direct effect(in other words it does not point out any new issues/trends that will have any impact federally and % in provincial elections are never the same as federal ones).

However it will have a more indirect effect, in that it will certainly further demoralise the CA and will embolden the NDP, which in itself won't result in any effect on the federal result, but will influence other effects.

NB.
I forgot to mention the Crown Corporations in the brief analysis.
I meant to... but forgot.
Logged
Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,983
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 28, 2003, 09:14:20 PM »

Q for Canadian folks -- Why/How did Canadian provincial parties get seperated from the Federal parties - as is the case in Sask. and BC.  In our two major parties (and for that matter in the minor ones) there is an official relationship between the NC's and the State Parties which in turn charter county parties which in turn charter precinct organizations, clubs, etc.  How does this work in the Provinces when you have something like the Sask. Party or the BC Liberal Party that are somewhat disconnected with their federal counterparts?
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 29, 2003, 07:35:03 AM »

With the exception of the NDP all federal and provincial parties are seperate organisations.

In theory if not always in pratice.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 30, 2003, 01:52:13 PM »

Hermason has resigned as leader of the Sask Party.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.044 seconds with 12 queries.