Early 2016 Senate Ratings

[ElectionsGuy]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016

Using this and the information I know, I'm going to rate the 2016 Senate races. These are obviously subject to change. This is the model:

State: Candidate (R/D), Status for re-election... Rating

Alabama: Richard Shelby (R), Running... Safe R
Alaska: Lisa Murkowski (R), Undecided... Likely R -->Safe R
Arizona: John McCain (R), Undecided... Lean R*
Arkansas: John Boozman (R), Undecided... Safe R
California: Barbara Boxer (D), Undecided... Safe D
Colorado: Michael Bennet (D), Undecided... Toss-Up -->Lean D
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal (D), Undecided... Safe D
Florida: Marco Rubio (R), Undecided... Lean R
Georgia: Johnny Isakson (R), Undecided... Likely R
Hawaii: Brian Schatz? (D), Undecided... Safe D
Idaho: Mike Crapo (R), Undecided... Safe R
Illinois: Mark Kirk (R), Undecided... Toss-Up -->Lean D
Indiana: Dan Coats (R), Running... Likely R
Iowa: Chuck Grassely (R), Running... Likely R
Kansas: Jerry Moran (R), Undecided... Safe R
Kentucky: Rand Paul (R), Running... Safe R -->Safe/Likely R
Louisiana: David Vitter (R), Undecided... Safe R
Maryland: Barbara Mikulski (D), Undecided... Safe D
Missouri: Roy Blunt (R), Undecided... Likely R -->Lean R
Nevada: Harry Reid (D), Undecided... Toss-Up** -->Toss-Up/Lean D
New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte (R), Undecided... Lean R
New York: Chuck Schumer (R), Undecided... Safe D
North Carolina: Richard Burr (R), Undecided... Lean R
North Dakota: John Hoeven (R), Undecided... Safe R
Ohio: Rob Portman (R), Undecided... Likely R
Oklahoma: Tom Coburn (R), Retiring... Safe R
Oregon: Ron Wyden (D), Undecided... Safe D
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey (R), Undecided... Toss-Up
South Carolina: Tim Scott? (R), Undecided... Safe R
South Dakota: John Thune (R), Undecided... Safe R
Utah: Mike Lee (R), Undecided... Safe R
Vermont: Patrick Leahy (D), Undecided... Safe D
Washington: Patty Murray (D), Undecided... Likely D -->Safe D
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson (R), Running... Toss-Up

*Hinted at retirement, but Wiki article says "running" as mistake.
**Intends not to run for another term, but hasn't officially announced, agian, Wiki article says "running" as mistake.

Make your own list and feel free to criticize mine if you find something unreasonable or incorrect.

Changes I got from reading over lists in RED

[NewYorkExpress]

Alabama is Safe R

Alaska is Safe R. Absent Begich losing in 2014 and running again in 2016, Murkowski's biggest threat is in the primary, and a Joe Miller type would win a squeaker over most non Begich/Knowles Democrats.

Arizona- Tossup/Tilt R, I suspect McCain does retire and we have either Brewer or Salmon as the GOP nominee against Kelly. Ultimately this race should go to the wire on election night 2016, and I think a lot will depend on whether Hillary is the D's presidential nominee

Arkansas- Likely R, I think former Gov. Beebe is the Democratic nominee here, however Boozman should be favored.

California- Safe D, I believe Sen. Boxer will Retire, however no matter who the Democrats nominate they will be a near-lock (for the record I think it will be Kamala Harris)

Colorado- Tossup Tilt/D. Another State that depends on whether Hillary is atop the Democrats ticket, Micheal Bennett will run and face solid opposition (John Elway?) in this purple state.

Connecticut- Likely D, Bluementhal could face an opponent ranging from Rob Simmons to Chris Shays, to Linda McMahon, but he'll be favored over almost all opponents.

Florida- Tossup I think Marco Rubio will make it relatively deep into the Presidential race (but
won't be the nominee), so he won't run for re-election. My Guess for the Republican nominee is Rep. Trey Radel who I think will face Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn or Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer in this classic swing state

Georgia- Lean R, Like Saxby Chambliss before him, I think Johnny Isakon retires as well. Ultimately this too is a state where Hillary's presence could influence the outcome. I think Rep. Gingrey/Broun tries again (and wins nomination this time) and faces Kasim Reed in the general.

Hawaii- Safe D   While I like Schatz, I think Hanabusa wins the primary in 2014, ultimately, it's moot though, no Republican is winning here.

Idaho- Safe R

Illinois- Likely D, I think Sen. Kirk citing health issues will retire. Republicans will nominate Bob Dold and the Democrats will nominate Sheila Simon.

Indiana- Safe R, Only candidate who could beat Coats is already a Senator.

Iowa- Likely R, Grassley's not a lock, but he's not going to lose either

Kansas- Safe R,

Kentucky- Tossup Tilt/R, Rand Paul likely will be running for President, so as much as he wants to run for Re-Election he can't. I think the GOP nominee will be Andy Barr and the Democrats will nominate Adam Edelen.

Louisiana- Safe R, David Vitter certainly will be governor, but that doesn't affect the Senate race much (other than maybe getting the frontrunner in the GOP primary some senority) if at all.

Maryland-Safe D Barbara Mikulski will retire, but that won't change much in this sapphire-blue state.

Missouri- Lean D Roy Blunt is very unpopular and Gov. Jay Nixon is. If Nixon doesn't run there could be a dramatic turnaround however.

Nevada- Lean R, Even if Harry Reid does run for re-election Gov. Brian Sandoval is the favorite here.

New Hampshire- Tossup Tilt/R, I don't see Kelly Ayotte on the GOP ticket and she should have a very miniscule advantage against either Carol Shea-Porter or Jeanne Shaheen (who I think are most likely to take her on)

New York- Likely D, Schumer's biggest weakness is a primary, and should a Bill De Blasio take the nomination away, someone along the lines of George Pataki could win in the General. The situation is very unlikely however.

North Carolina- Lean D. This state loves tossing out Senators, and Burr could be the next victim.

North Dakota- Safe R, Can the state democrats clone Heidi Heitkamp?

Ohio- Lean D, I think Kasich defeats Portman in a primary, and Democrats will nominate Richard Cordaray. Kasich is a slightly more toxic candidate than Portman, and Clinton at the top of the ticket could help here.

Oklahoma- Safe R, Coburn's retirement don't change a thing

Oregon- Safe D

Pennsylvania- Lean R, Pat Toomey is no Rick Santorum or Tom Corbett which why he will hold on.

South Carolina, Safe R, Scott will win easily both in 2014 and in 2016

South Dakota- Safe R

Utah- Safe R

Vermont Safe D, I do think Pat Leahy retires, however that won't change the result.

Washington, Safe D

Wisconsin, Tossup Tilt/D Ron Johnson is in big trouble, but the Democrats don't have much of a bench here.

[illegaloperation]

State: Candidate (R/D), Status for re-election... Rating

Alabama: Richard Shelby (R), Running... Safe R
Alaska: Lisa Murkowski (R), Undecided... Safe R
Arizona: John McCain (R), Undecided... Lean R
Arkansas: John Boozman (R), Undecided... Lean R
California: Barbara Boxer (D), Undecided... Safe D
Colorado: Michael Bennet (D), Undecided... Likely D
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal (D), Undecided... Safe D
Florida: Marco Rubio (R), Undecided... Lean R
Georgia: Johnny Isakson (R), Undecided... Likely R
Hawaii: Brian Schatz? (D), Undecided... Safe D
Idaho: Mike Crapo (R), Undecided... Safe R
Illinois: Mark Kirk (R), Undecided... Toss-Up
Indiana: Dan Coats (R), Running... Safe R
Iowa: Chuck Grassely (R), Running... Safe R
Kansas: Jerry Moran (R), Undecided... Safe R
Kentucky: Rand Paul (R), Running... Safe R
Louisiana: David Vitter (R), Undecided... Safe R
Maryland: Barbara Mikulski (D), Undecided... Safe D
Missouri: Roy Blunt (R), Undecided... Lean R
Nevada: Harry Reid (D), Undecided... Likely D
New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte (R), Undecided... Lean R
New York: Chuck Schumer (R), Undecided... Safe D
North Carolina: Richard Burr (R), Undecided... Lean R
North Dakota: John Hoeven (R), Undecided... Safe R
Ohio: Rob Portman (R), Undecided... Likely R
Oklahoma: Tom Coburn (R), Retiring... Safe R
Oregon: Ron Wyden (D), Undecided... Safe D
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey (R), Undecided... Lean R
South Carolina: Tim Scott? (R), Undecided... Safe R
South Dakota: John Thune (R), Undecided... Safe R
Utah: Mike Lee (R), Undecided... Safe R
Vermont: Patrick Leahy (D), Undecided... Safe D
Washington: Patty Murray (D), Undecided... Safe D
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson (R), Running... Toss-Up

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

State: Candidate (R/D), Status for re-election... Rating

Alabama: Richard Shelby (R), Running... Safe R
Alaska: Lisa Murkowski (R), Undecided... Safe R
Arizona: John McCain (R), Undecided... Lean R*
Arkansas: John Boozman (R), Undecided... Likely R
California: Barbara Boxer (D), Undecided... Safe D
Colorado: Michael Bennet (D), Undecided... Lean D
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal (D), Undecided... Safe D
Florida: Marco Rubio (R), Undecided... Toss-up
Georgia: Johnny Isakson (R), Undecided... Likely R
Hawaii: Brian Schatz? (D), Undecided... Safe D
Idaho: Mike Crapo (R), Undecided... Safe R
Illinois: Mark Kirk (R), Undecided... Toss-Up
Indiana: Dan Coats (R), Running... Likely R
Iowa: Chuck Grassely (R), Running... Likely R
Kansas: Jerry Moran (R), Undecided... Safe R
Kentucky: Rand Paul (R), Running... Lean R
Louisiana: David Vitter (R), Undecided... Safe R
Maryland: Barbara Mikulski (D), Undecided... Safe D
Missouri: Roy Blunt (R), Undecided... Lean R
Nevada: Harry Reid (D), Undecided... Lean D**
New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte (R), Undecided... Lean R
New York: Chuck Schumer (R), Undecided... Safe D
North Carolina: Richard Burr (R), Undecided... Lean R
North Dakota: John Hoeven (R), Undecided... Safe R
Ohio: Rob Portman (R), Undecided... Lean R
Oklahoma: Tom Coburn (R), Retiring... Safe R
Oregon: Ron Wyden (D), Undecided... Safe D
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey (R), Undecided... Toss-Up
South Carolina: Tim Scott? (R), Undecided... Safe R
South Dakota: John Thune (R), Undecided... Safe R
Utah: Mike Lee (R), Undecided... Safe R
Vermont: Patrick Leahy (D), Undecided... Safe D
Washington: Patty Murray (D), Undecided... Likely D
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson (R), Running... Toss-Up

[RogueBeaver]

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Safe R. Murky probably runs again.
Arizona: Likely R, Salmon v. unknown D.
CA: Safe D
CO: Lean D, tossup if Gardner runs.
CT: Safe D
FL: Lean R with or without Rubio
HI: Safe D
ID: Safe D
IL: Safe D
IN: Safe R
IA: Safe R
KS: Safe R
KY: I think Massie or Barr will be the Pub nominee. Given Paulite strength and his own congenial personality, I'd say Massie in a contested primary.
LA: Safe R
MO: Likely R
NV: Tilt R if Reid runs, Likely R if he retires.
NH: Lean R
NY: Safe D
NC: Likely R
ND: Safe R
OH: Lean R
OK: Safe D
OR: Safe D
PA: Lean R
SC: Safe D
SD: Safe R
UT: Safe R
VT: Safe D
WA: Safe D
WI: Lean R

[Mr. Morden]

Kentucky: Rand Paul (R), Running... Safe R

He says he's running for reelection, yet he also says he's thinking about running for president, even though it's legally impossible for him to do both at the same time.  He hasn't exactly clarified how he plans to deal with that fact.

[RogueBeaver]

Kentucky: Rand Paul (R), Running... Safe R

He says he's running for reelection, yet he also says he's thinking about running for president, even though it's legally impossible for him to do both at the same time.  He hasn't exactly clarified how he plans to deal with that fact.

Yeah, especially if the primaries start in February or March. My guess is he gives up his seat and runs, since all the indications are towards a presidential run, he has a like-minded possible successor in Massie, the seat's just a stepping stone. Rubio has enough time to switch races unless he's the presumptive nominee.

[JacobNC]

I have a hunch that Murkowski may leave the GOP and run as an Indie, especially as if it looks like she will have a strong primary opponent.  Democrats don't have anyone strong to run; if Murkowski can get the backing of big labor unions and Native American tribes she should be able to get most of AK's Democrats behind her.

[IceSpear]

Alaska: Likely R - Since Murkowski will actually be on the ballot next time, it's hard to see her losing, but in a potential three way race it could be possible.
Arizona: Lean R - If McCain doesn't retire, he'd get beaten in the primary anyway.
Arkansas: Lean R - If Mike Beebe runs it's a toss up. But if he doesn't it's likely R. So I split the difference.
Colorado: Lean D - Simply because if Bennet could survive in 2010, it's hard to see how he doesn't in a presidential year.
Florida: Toss Up - Regardless if Rubio runs for president or not.
Georgia: Lean R - Isakson could retire. If he doesn't it's likely R though.
Illinois: Lean D takeover - Hard to see how Kirk survives considering he barely beat a horrible opponent in a GOP wave year.
Indiana: Lean R - Coats could retire, even if he doesn't it's possible he could be beaten. Ellsworth would've given him a tough race in a non wave year.
Iowa: Likely R - Assuming Grassley doesn't change his mind.
Kentucky: Likely R - Whether or not Paul runs for president. Though Steve Beshear running would instantly make it a toss up.
Missouri: Toss Up - Roy Blunt is not popular at all.
Nevada: Toss Up - So much depends on who runs. Democrats would be best without Reid, and Sandoval would put the Republicans in control if he ran. In generic D vs. generic R, the Democrat has the edge though.
New Hampshire: Toss Up - Ayotte's popularity is not what it once was.
North Carolina: Toss Up - See Missouri.
Ohio: Toss Up - Portman could be primaried, and it could be competitive regardless.
Pennsylvania: Lean D takeover - Winning by 2 points in a Republican wave year is hardly impressive. Toomey will be in huge trouble during a presidential year with higher turnout.
Wisconsin: Lean D takeover - See Pennsylvania. Although he won by a bigger margin, he's also done nothing to gain favor with anyone besides the Tea Party despite being from a blue state.

Everything else is safe.

[IceSpear]

I have a hunch that Murkowski may leave the GOP and run as an Indie, especially as if it looks like she will have a strong primary opponent.  Democrats don't have anyone strong to run; if Murkowski can get the backing of big labor unions and Native American tribes she should be able to get most of AK's Democrats behind her.

She'll definitely run as an independent on the ballot, since there's no way she could win a GOP primary at this point and switching parties would be suicide. But she'll caucus with the GOP.

[PolitiJunkie]

Colorado: Michael Bennet (D), Undecided... Toss-Up
New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte (R), Undecided... Lean R

LOL no.

Washington: Patty Murray (D), Undecided... Likely D
Kentucky: Rand Paul (R), Running... Safe R
Missouri: Roy Blunt (R), Undecided... Likely R

Not LOL-worthy but also no

**Intends not to run for another term

Where did you get that from? Trust me, a Harry Reid retirement is any Democrat's wet dream but what tells you he "intends" not to run for another term and that the Wikipedia designation is a mistake like it is for McCain?

[PolitiJunkie]

and the Democrats will nominate Adam Edelen.

Why would the Democrats nominate someone who has only been Governor for a few months?

Jeanne Shaheen (who I think are most likely to take her on)

You think Shaheen will be voted out in 2014?

New York- Likely D, Schumer's biggest weakness is a primary, and should a Bill De Blasio take the nomination away, someone along the lines of George Pataki could win in the General. The situation is very unlikely however.

Ohio- Lean D, I think Kasich defeats Portman in a primary, and Democrats will nominate Richard Cordaray. Kasich is a slightly more toxic candidate than Portman, and Clinton at the top of the ticket could help here.

Schumer and Portman will be renominated and reelected. Why do people on this forum underappreciate/understimate Rob Portman so much? There are at least 12 seats Democrats should be focusing on in 2016 before Ohio.

[PolitiJunkie]

NV: Tilt R if Reid runs, Likely R if he retires.

In a reasonably blue state in a presidential year, Reid being off the ticket should INCREASE Democratic chances, not decrease them.

[PolitiJunkie]

Time to get real...

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Likely R
Arizona: Toss-Up
Arkansas: Likely R
California: Safe D
Colorado: Likely D
Connecticut: Likely D
Florida: Toss-Up
Georgia: Likely R
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Toss-Up
Indiana: Likely R
Iowa: Lean R
Kansas: Safe R
Kentucky: Toss-Up
Louisiana: Likely R
Maryland: Safe D
Missouri: Toss-Up
Nevada: Toss-Up
New Hampshire: Toss-Up
New York: Safe D
North Carolina: Toss-Up
North Dakota: Safe R
Ohio: Likely R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Pennsylvania: Toss-Up
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe D
Washington: Safe D
Wisconsin: Toss-Up

[Kushahontas]

re: Nevada as toss-up, this will be 2016 and Hillary will be the likely Democratic nominee.

[IceSpear]

re: Nevada as toss-up, this will be 2016 and Hillary will be the likely Democratic nominee.

I think people are putting it as toss up because:

a) If Harry Reid runs, he'd start off in a hole. His approval ratings are abysmal and he only won in 2010 because Angle was nuts.
b) There's a good chance Brian Sandoval runs for the seat, who would start ahead of any Democrat, especially Reid.

[IceSpear]

Time to get real...

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Likely R
Arizona: Toss-Up
Arkansas: Likely R
California: Safe D
Colorado: Likely D
Connecticut: Likely D
Florida: Toss-Up
Georgia: Likely R
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Toss-Up
Indiana: Likely R
Iowa: Lean R
Kansas: Safe R
Kentucky: Toss-Up
Louisiana: Likely R
Maryland: Safe D
Missouri: Toss-Up
Nevada: Toss-Up
New Hampshire: Toss-Up
New York: Safe D
North Carolina: Toss-Up
North Dakota: Safe R
Ohio: Likely R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Pennsylvania: Toss-Up
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe D
Washington: Safe D
Wisconsin: Toss-Up

Pretty good list, except Kentucky which stands out as way too optimistic and Illinois which stands out as too pessimistic. I know people are reluctant to call a race with an incumbent as leaning to the other party, but Kirk barely won in a wave year, and he'll have to deal with Illinois going 60-40 to the Democrat in the presidential race despite not being an established longtime incumbent.

[PolitiJunkie]

Time to get real...

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Likely R
Arizona: Toss-Up
Arkansas: Likely R
California: Safe D
Colorado: Likely D
Connecticut: Likely D
Florida: Toss-Up
Georgia: Likely R
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Toss-Up
Indiana: Likely R
Iowa: Lean R
Kansas: Safe R
Kentucky: Toss-Up
Louisiana: Likely R
Maryland: Safe D
Missouri: Toss-Up
Nevada: Toss-Up
New Hampshire: Toss-Up
New York: Safe D
North Carolina: Toss-Up
North Dakota: Safe R
Ohio: Likely R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Pennsylvania: Toss-Up
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe D
Washington: Safe D
Wisconsin: Toss-Up

Pretty good list, except Kentucky which stands out as way too optimistic and Illinois which stands out as too pessimistic. I know people are reluctant to call a race with an incumbent as leaning to the other party, but Kirk barely won in a wave year, and he'll have to deal with Illinois going 60-40 to the Democrat in the presidential race despite not being an established longtime incumbent.

You're right. Lean R and Lean D respectively.

[free my dawg]

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Safe R
Arizona: Tilt R
Arkansas: Safe R
California: Safe D
Colorado: Likely D
Connecticut: Safe D
Florida: Lean R
Georgia: Likely R
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Toss-Up
Indiana: Likely R
Iowa: Safe R
Kansas: Safe R
Kentucky: Lean R (Tilt with Hillary on ticket)
Louisiana: Likely R
Maryland: Safe D
Missouri: Tilts R
Nevada: Lean D (Lean R with Sandoval)
New Hampshire: Tilts R
New York: Safe D
North Carolina: Lean R
North Dakota: Safe R
Ohio: Lean R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Pennsylvania: Tilts R
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe D
Washington: Safe D
Wisconsin: Tilts D

[windjammer]

Too early, we should wait which candidates could be interested and which senator would retire.

[ElectionsGuy]

Kentucky: Rand Paul (R), Running... Safe R

He says he's running for reelection, yet he also says he's thinking about running for president, even though it's legally impossible for him to do both at the same time.  He hasn't exactly clarified how he plans to deal with that fact.

Yeah, quite confused by that. Could he cancel for file of re-election of Kentucky? If so, its Likely R without him, Safe R with him.

Colorado: Michael Bennet (D), Undecided... Toss-Up
New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte (R), Undecided... Lean R

LOL no.

Washington: Patty Murray (D), Undecided... Likely D
Kentucky: Rand Paul (R), Running... Safe R
Missouri: Roy Blunt (R), Undecided... Likely R

Not LOL-worthy but also no

**Intends not to run for another term

Where did you get that from? Trust me, a Harry Reid retirement is any Democrat's wet dream but what tells you he "intends" not to run for another term and that the Wikipedia designation is a mistake like it is for McCain?

Colorado: Well, Bennett almost lost to a ridiculous tea partier in 2010, it was a wave year, but I'll probably change it to Lean D for now.

New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte has a flat approval rating, in a state like New Hampshire that can accept both parties as long as they're decent, along with the fact that she's the incumbent, I think makes her have a slight advantage starting out.

Washington: Probably should be Safe D, I was thinking about here close race in 2010, but she was facing a really good opponent, I respect your decision to put it as Safe D.

Kentucky: Described above.

Missouri: Would Lean R be more appropriate, I realize Roy Blunt isn't the most popular figure on the street, but he's a republican incumbent in a (now) republican state, this should be Lean R at the most.

Nevada: http://atr.rollcall.com/nevada-harry-reid-to-retire-in-2016/. I got this from a source in the Wiki article. And yes, the little number [ ] that I click on goes to an article telling that he might retire or he intends not to run again. Yet it says "running" in the status, so yeah a mistake or perhaps they just don't have an option for hinting at retirement but not officially announcing like Tom Coburn, so they decided to put "running" in the status. I don't know what that's all about.

[ElectionsGuy]

Time to get real...

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Likely R
Arizona: Toss-Up
Arkansas: Likely R
California: Safe D
Colorado: Likely D
Connecticut: Likely D
Florida: Toss-Up
Georgia: Likely R
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Toss-Up
Indiana: Likely R
Iowa: Lean R
Kansas: Safe R
Kentucky: Toss-Up
Louisiana: Likely R
Maryland: Safe D
Missouri: Toss-Up
Nevada: Toss-Up
New Hampshire: Toss-Up
New York: Safe D
North Carolina: Toss-Up
North Dakota: Safe R
Ohio: Likely R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Pennsylvania: Toss-Up
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe D
Washington: Safe D
Wisconsin: Toss-Up

The only one here I have a problem with is Kentucky. How do you think democrats have a chance there? All the others are at least somewhat reasonable.

[PolitiJunkie]

Missouri: Would Lean R be more appropriate, I realize Roy Blunt isn't the most popular figure on the street, but he's a republican incumbent in a (now) republican state, this should be Lean R at the most.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Nixon

[JerryArkansas]

State: Candidate (R/D), Status for re-election... Rating

Alabama: Richard Shelby (R), Running... Safe R

Alaska: Lisa Murkowski (R), Undecided... Safe R
Arizona: John McCain (R), Undecided... Lean R
Arkansas: John Boozman (R), Undecided... Lean R(Tossup with Mike Beebe and Tilt D with both Hillary and Mike.)
California: Barbara Boxer (D), Undecided... Safe D
Colorado: Michael Bennet (D), Undecided... Likely D
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal (D), Undecided... Safe D
Florida: Marco Rubio (R), Undecided... Lean R
Georgia: Johnny Isakson (R), Undecided... Likely R
Hawaii: Incumbent Undetermined (D), Undecided... Safe D
Idaho: Mike Crapo (R), Undecided... Safe R
Illinois: Mark Kirk (R), Undecided... Toss-Up
Indiana: Dan Coats (R), Running... Safe R
Iowa: Chuck Grassely (R), Running... Safe R
Kansas: Jerry Moran (R), Undecided... Safe R
Kentucky: Rand Paul (R), Running... Safe R
Louisiana: David Vitter (R), Undecided... Safe R
Maryland: Barbara Mikulski (D), Undecided... Safe D
Missouri: Roy Blunt (R), Undecided... Toss-up
Nevada: Harry Reid (D), Undecided... Likely D
New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte (R), Undecided... Lean R
New York: Chuck Schumer (R), Undecided... Safe D
North Carolina: Richard Burr (R), Undecided... Lean R
North Dakota: John Hoeven (R), Undecided... Safe R
Ohio: Rob Portman (R), Undecided... Likely R
Oklahoma: Tom Coburn (R), Retiring... Safe R
Oregon: Ron Wyden (D), Undecided... Safe D
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey (R), Undecided... Lean R
South Carolina: Tim Scott (R), Undecided... Safe R
South Dakota: John Thune (R), Undecided... Safe R
Utah: Mike Lee (R), Undecided... Safe R
Vermont: Patrick Leahy (D), Undecided... Safe D
Washington: Patty Murray (D), Undecided... Safe D
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson (R), Running... Toss-Up

[PolitiJunkie]

New York- Likely D, Schumer's biggest weakness is a primary, and should a Bill De Blasio take the nomination away, someone along the lines of George Pataki could win in the General. The situation is very unlikely however.

Ohio- Lean D, I think Kasich defeats Portman in a primary, and Democrats will nominate Richard Cordaray. Kasich is a slightly more toxic candidate than Portman, and Clinton at the top of the ticket could help here.

Schumer and Portman will be renominated and reelected. Why do people on this forum underappreciate/understimate Rob Portman so much? There are at least 12 seats Democrats should be focusing on in 2016 before Ohio.

Because Portman's approval rating is just bombshell. He dropped like 16 points after voting against background checks and 10 points after coming out in support of same-sex marriage. Just because the Republicans have held this seat since John Glenn's retirement doesn't mean Portman will soar to re-election especially in a swing-state in a Presidential year. There's almost no way Kasich runs for the seat either because no matter if he loses his Governor's race or not, he has his eyes set on the Presidency.

Ohio right now I would consider a tossup/tilt R, but if Hillary ends up being on the same ballot and the Democrats can get someone like Michael Coleman, Marcia Fudge or Dennis Kucinich to run (Cordray  will decline now that he's with the CFPB), it could be lean D.

You've gotta be fcuking kidding me. You are coming off as barfbag of the left right now.

Here is a ranking of the races in terms of the likelihood of them being Democratic pickups (most likely to least likely)

Wisconsin
Illinois
New Hampshire
Arizona
Florida
Pennsylvania
Missouri
North Carolina
Iowa
Kentucky
Georgia
Ohio
Indiana
Alaska
Louisiana
Arkansas
South Carolina
Kansas
Oklahoma
Idaho
South Dakota
North Dakota
Alabama
Utah

More Likely than Not
Solid Possibility
There's a Chance
Doubtful
Very Unlikely
No Way, José

And for the likelihood of a Republican Pickup

Nevada
Colorado
Washington
Connecticut
Oregon
California
New York
Hawaii
Maryland
Vermont

Perhaps
Not Likely
No Way, José