Current voting trends continue

[5280]

If the current voting trends continue, the Democrats and Republicans keep their demographics do you think the following election maps are reasonable?

2016:

2020:

2024:

2028:

2032:

2036:

2040:

[PolitiJunkie]

If the current voting trends continue, the Democrats and Republicans keep their demographics do you think the following election maps are reasonable?

2016:

2020:

2024:

2028:

2032:

2036:

2040:

No.

[Skill and Chance]

There is so much wrong here I don't know where to begin.  The only way your later maps could possibly happen is if the Republicans get to the Democrats left on the environment, and that sounds ridiculous even to type.  If Democrats have flipped Texas (which is currently getting more R) by 2032, they should be getting 60% routinely in NM and NV.  Finally, the most plausible non-NH breakthrough in New England has to be CT right now.

[ElectionsGuy]

This could definitely be realistic with the scenario of trends continuing into the future. However the chances of trends completely continuing on for 25+ years in unheard of, and definitely isn't realistic.  There's a few objections here like why does Montana become a swing state and why does Michigan become a republican state before Minnesota, but overall, this is a good prediction for the set scenario . Of course we can't predict the future, so this won't be a realistic map, but its fun to play around with it.

[PolitiJunkie]

This could definitely be realistic with the scenario of trends continuing into the future. However the chances of trends completely continuing on for 25+ years in unheard of, and definitely isn't realistic.  There's a few objections here like why does Montana become a swing state and why does Michigan become a republican state before Minnesota, but overall, this is a good prediction for the set scenario . Of course we can't predict the future, so this won't be a realistic map, but its fun to play around with it.

No. Stop. There are too many issues for me to break it down entirely, but for starters, NH is solidifying with the rest of New England, not moving away to the right.

[ElectionsGuy]

This could definitely be realistic with the scenario of trends continuing into the future. However the chances of trends completely continuing on for 25+ years in unheard of, and definitely isn't realistic.  There's a few objections here like why does Montana become a swing state and why does Michigan become a republican state before Minnesota, but overall, this is a good prediction for the set scenario . Of course we can't predict the future, so this won't be a realistic map, but its fun to play around with it.

No. Stop. There are too many issues for me to break it down entirely, but for starters, NH is solidifying with the rest of New England, not moving away to the right.

What else? I think in many of these maps, he's thinking of whites becoming more republican and non-whites becoming more democratic. If so, New Hampshire does make sense, and states like Georgia, Texas, and Arizona make sense. What states specifically do you object to the most here?

[Skill and Chance]

This could definitely be realistic with the scenario of trends continuing into the future. However the chances of trends completely continuing on for 25+ years in unheard of, and definitely isn't realistic.  There's a few objections here like why does Montana become a swing state and why does Michigan become a republican state before Minnesota, but overall, this is a good prediction for the set scenario . Of course we can't predict the future, so this won't be a realistic map, but its fun to play around with it.

No. Stop. There are too many issues for me to break it down entirely, but for starters, NH is solidifying with the rest of New England, not moving away to the right.

What else? I think in many of these maps, he's thinking of whites becoming more republican and non-whites becoming more democratic. If so, New Hampshire does make sense, and states like Georgia, Texas, and Arizona make sense. What states specifically do you object to the most here?

How do you make WA R without making CA swing?  As I said earlier, this scenario only works if Republicans become the "greener" party (which I don't think anyone expects right now).  And if that happens, CA would only be D+low because the Bay Area would defect en masse as the NYC suburbs have here.  Green-libertarian GOP vs. populist Dems would be a very interesting world though because both CA and TX would be purple.   

[opebo]

If the current voting trends continue, the Democrats and Republicans keep their demographics do you think the following election maps are reasonable?

2016:

2020:

What?? You're predicting a trend in the Republicans favor, when all signs point opposite of that.  Here's the real 2016 and 2020:

2016:

2020:

[Sol]

Why do Oregon and Washington shift to the right?

[5280]

The Republicans get rid of the social conservatives from the party and become almost libertarian.

[PolitiJunkie]

The Republicans get rid of the social conservatives from the party and become almost libertarian.

Where exactly are the socons going? This is a pipe dream.

[ElectionsGuy]

The Republicans get rid of the social conservatives from the party and become almost libertarian.

Where exactly are the socons going? This is a pipe dream.

They would die off as they are right now. Although, its going to take a long time for them to be irrelevant to the party, a lot can happen in 26 years (not to mention both parties are trending libertarian.)

[hopper]

If the current voting trends continue, the Democrats and Republicans keep their demographics do you think the following election maps are reasonable?

2016:

The GOP is gonna win Ohio in 2016?

[opebo]

If the current voting trends continue, the Democrats and Republicans keep their demographics do you think the following election maps are reasonable?

2016:

The GOP is gonna win Ohio in 2016?

I think he's trying to show an exactly tied popular vote there.  In that case his map's not that unrealistic.

[barfbag]

Trends don't go on forever but this is interesting.