Afghan election, 2014

[Famous Mortimer]

Notable candidates:

Abdullah Abdullah: We all know who this is, right?

Quayum Karzai: Current president's brother.

Zalmai Rassoul: Current foreign minister, one of his VP candidates is Ahmed Shah Massoud's brother, the other is a lady.

Abdul Rasul Sayyaf: Terrorist candidate. The guy who initially invited bin Laden to Afghanistan. The terrorist group in the Philippines is named in his honor.

Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai: Former finance minister and World Bank official. One of his VP candidates is Adbul Rashid Dostum, the former Communist general turned Uzbek warlord.

Hashmat Ghani Ahmadzai: Brother of the above.

Abdul Rahim Wardak: Former defense minister who was fired by parliament for being too pro-American/anti-terrorism, basically the neo-con candidate.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Would the Taliban be willing to back Sayyaf over disturbing the election? Would Karzai have the power to rig the election in his favour (no doubt that he would try)?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One of his VP candidates is Adbul Rashid Dostum, the former Communist general turned Uzbek warlord.

lol

[minionofmidas]

Would the Taliban be willing to back Sayyaf over disturbing the election?

Sayyaf was an uneasy member of the Northern Alliance since the Taliban first rose to power, and has been a fairly influential member of parliament since the invasion. Guess.
So he's a pretty damn Conservative Pashto. Big deal. So he's an old warlord. Major count against him in the Taliban's book - he's one of the very people they originally arose to destroy.

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His name is Obama, and yes he does, more or less, and yes he will if it turns out to be necessary, of course. Just like he did last time.

[minionofmidas]

Taliban's view of these 'elections'

[Simfan34]

So this is a few days away...

What if the Afghan elections actually work?
http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/02/opinion/bergen-afghan-elections/

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[Tender Branson]

Please ... these are not elections, but "elections".

There are about 10 million "ghost voters" in that country.

[Famous Mortimer]

If Zalmai Rassoul makes the run-off, you can say the elections are rigged.

Otherwise, they are reasonably free.

[Tender Branson]

Preliminary results show that Abdullah and Ghani will likely make it to the run-off:

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http://www.nation.com.pk/international/08-Apr-2014/rivals-cry-foul-as-soon-as-results-put-abdullah-leading

[Mr. Morden]

With 10% of the vote in:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/13/us-afghanistan-election-idUSBREA3C07T20140413

Abdullah 41.9%
Ghani 37.6%

[njwes]

An update courtesy of the NYTimes

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/27/world/asia/afghanistan-elections.html

I don't know enough about the electoral process in Afghanistan to have a legitimitely informed opinion, but it does sound like good news. We'll see.

Still not convinced Afghanistan has anything but but authoritarianism of one stripe or another in its future. But I'd find it ironic if these elections went off better than the ones in Iraq a few days from now.

Also, there're some results by province available if anyone with map-making skills feels the urge

[Antonio the Sixth]

I really hope Abdullah wins, just because it'd be hilarious to hear the news media frequently mention a guy whose first and last name are identical. It'd probably be the first instance since RFK's assassination.

[njwes]

I really hope Abdullah wins, just because it'd be hilarious to hear the news media frequently mention a guy whose first and last name are identical.

Hadn't thought about that. To my ears at least Abdullah Abdullah is harder than Sirhan Sirhan in a fast-moving news broadcast; expect a lot of broadcaster verbal flubs, though not near Eyjafjallajökull levels.

AA's conduct thus far and the breakdown of the results thus far is pretty fascinating. Obvious ethnic/tribal division, though hopelessly so. I truly hope the second round can go through without any 2009-style hijinks.

I haven't read much of the literature in the field for several years now, but I do wonder how the developments in Iraq and Afghanistan (and of course Arab Spring countries) have affected the academic study of democratic transitions.

[Hash]

Also, there're some results by province available if anyone with map-making skills feels the urge

[njwes]

Gracias!

[Simfan34]

Either way, it appears we are winning.

[Frodo]

The end finally appears to be in sight.