kerry must target the southwest? surely

[angus]

When I first saw this guy's screen name, I thought is was 'Nomo Relies', but now I see it is 'no more lies'.

ah, thank you.  And in the spirit of free freudian association, I must say the japanese name Nomo puts me in mind of baseball, of course.

If the yankees play the red sox in the AL championship series, and the red sox feel the need to ask one of the yankees pitchers to come and pitch for them, wouldn't it look like desperation on the part of the red sox?  Would the umps sense that desperation?  would it make them harsher judges of the sox than of the yankees?  Of course, if you're from Boston, it's standard fare to assume umpires are harder on the sox than any other team in the league.

successful candidates, like successful baseball clubs, will avoid any hint of desperation.

A more apt analogy would be if the White Sox were losing their fan base to the Cubs, and hired a Harry Caray impersonator to do their radio broadcasts, hoping to bring Cubs fans over.

that was very Lisa Simpson of you, but yes definitely a better analogy

[Beet]

Guys! Guys! The winnable southwest (NM, AZ and NV) has 20 electoral votes.... OHIO, West Virginia and Pennsylvania have 46!... the other Midwestern "swing states" (WI, MN, MO and IA) have 38 electoral votes! and the other two possible Democratic pickups Florida and New Hampshire together have 31 electoral votes... in short the south west will become more competitive and more important in the future however in this election it is just not worth concentrating really heavily on those states, all factors (economic, social, historical, party strength) favour the Democrats much more strongly in places such as OH and WI than in states like Arizona... So in short if one area must have much of the Democratic Party’s resources concentrated then that area should be the "Steel States" and the "Midwest"...

Good point. Although if you take the entire West and throw in Oregon, which wasn't decided for Gore until the overseas ballots came in, it's 27 electoral votes. But nevertheless I see your point. IA, WI, and MN have 27 electoral votes are they're far more likely to all go the same way than the Southwest+Oregon. This election will be decided in the East.

[zachman]

Oregon will not cast its electoral votes for George W. Bush. Expect that Kerry will win a margin of half of the Nader voters in 2000 to vote  for him this time around. So in Oregon add 40,000 (Nader earned 77,000) votes to the Democrat that come just from Nader not being on the ballot.  Bush would need 50,000 more votes, over what Kerry has added from new voters or stay-at-home voters.

The only real way for Kerry to counter the 2 out of 3 rule (aside from winning Virginia, WV, and TN) is winning 3 of the 4 Western states. It is a difficult choice to determine whether to target Arizona or Colorado. Make a decision by the convention.

[opebo]

Oregon will not cast its electoral votes for George W. Bush. Expect that Kerry will win a margin of half of the Nader voters in 2000 to vote  for him this time around. So in Oregon add 40,000 (Nader earned 77,000) votes to the Democrat that come just from Nader not being on the ballot.  Bush would need 50,000 more votes, over what Kerry has added from new voters or stay-at-home voters.

The only real way for Kerry to counter the 2 out of 3 rule (aside from winning Virginia, WV, and TN) is winning 3 of the 4 Western states. It is a difficult choice to determine whether to target Arizona or Colorado. Make a decision by the convention.

I agree Kerry has a good chance to keep Oregon, but Bush's chances of keeping TN, VA, WV, AZ, and CO are all better than that.

[bgwah]

Bush won't win Oregon.

[MN-Troy]

Arizona will be too difficult for Kerry, Nevada seems worthwhile and Colorado seems worth trying. Nader got over 5% there and Bush barely broke 50% last time. Once Kerry can consolidate every ABBer he has a shot in Colorado.

Polls say that we (Dems) are winning Arizona right now.  Why is it too difficult for Kerry?

The last poll I saw from Arizona was that Bush was up by 9 points. Is there another poll out there with a different result?