Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

Austria starts deporting 20.000 asylum seekers by charter flights and buses:

http://derstandard.at/2000016887570/Oesterreich-will-ein-Viertel-der-Asylwerber-ausser-Landes-bringen

Finally.

[Tender Branson]

2 Team Stronach MPs switch to the ÖVP:

https://derstandard.at/jetzt/livebericht/2000016892813/oevp-parlamentsklub-praesentiert-personelle-verstaerkung

[Tender Branson]

Breaking News from Burgenland:

SPÖ and FPÖ have agreed to start coalition talks after the state election there.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/4746836/Burgenland_SPO-und-FPO-beginnen-Koalitionsverhandlungen

[Tender Branson]

Linz municipal (Sept. 27) election poll by IMAS:

34-36% SPÖ (-6 compared with 2009 election)
25-27% ÖVP (-2)
18-20% FPÖ (+4)
11-13% Greens (nc)
    4-6% NEOS (+5)
    1-2% KPÖ (nc)

http://www.nachrichten.at/oberoesterreich/linz/Sonntagsfrage-SP-verliert-weiter-VP-bleibt-Zweiter;art66,1832280

[Tender Branson]

First Gallup poll after the state elections shows the FPÖ up slightly and SPÖVP down:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Nach-Wahltriumpf-zieht-FPOe-weit-davon/191025423

...

The Vienna state election on Oct. 11 is now shaping up as the "mother of all election battles", because if the SPÖ is losing big there too and the FPÖ is gaining as well, the SPÖ might end up at 35% and the FPÖ above 30%.

[FredLindq]

Is the the upcoming coalition in Burgenland between SPÖ and FPÖ the first off this kind?!

Any discussion regarding this in the media.

[DavidB.]

First Gallup poll after the state elections shows the FPÖ up slightly and SPÖVP down:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Nach-Wahltriumpf-zieht-FPOe-weit-davon/191025423

...

The Vienna state election on Oct. 11 is now shaping up as the "mother of all election battles", because if the SPÖ is losing big there too and the FPÖ is gaining as well, the SPÖ might end up at 35% and the FPÖ above 30%.

With these numbers, would an SPÖ-ÖVP-Greens coalition (or a SPÖ-ÖVP-NEOS coalition) be more likely than an FPÖ-ÖVP coalition?

[FredLindq]

Or FPÖ+SPÖ?!

[Tender Branson]

Is the the upcoming coalition in Burgenland between SPÖ and FPÖ the first of this kind?!

Any discussion regarding this in the media.

In Burgenland, yes.

Federally no. There was one in the early 1980s already but with a liberal FPÖ under Steger. The coalition was ended when Jörg Haider took power within the FPÖ in 1986.

With these numbers, would an SPÖ-ÖVP-Greens coalition (or a SPÖ-ÖVP-NEOS coalition) be more likely than an FPÖ-ÖVP coalition?

Or FPÖ+SPÖ?!

That's really impossible to say, because it depends on the election results and the people in charge of the parties after the '18 election. I seriously doubt that Faymann for example will still be in charge of the SPÖ after '18 ...

[Tender Branson]

Is the the upcoming coalition in Burgenland between SPÖ and FPÖ the first off this kind?!

Any discussion regarding this in the media.

Sry, I forgot to answer this ...

Yes, there's a big debate about this new development right now: intra-party (SPÖ), between the parties and in the media.

The federal SPÖ is extremely split on the proposed SPÖ-FPÖ coalition in Burgenland: Socialist Women, Socialist Youth, Socialist Students, unions are all opposed to it - while the federal SPÖ leadership (Faymann, Darabos etc.) seem to grudgingly tolerate it.

Other parties like the ÖVP and Greens are mocking the SPÖ and Faymann for "not having his party under control anymore" ...

The media seems to be pretty much split about it as well, with some editorials in favour and some against.

[Tender Branson]

The new SPÖ-FPÖ coalition in Burgenland is now official.

See here.

[Tender Branson]

Wow, it takes a loss of 2x 9% for them to "finally get it":

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...

Pretty much what I said over the last 3 pages ...

[FredLindq]

Will SPÖ be exlcuded from the PES now?! Will all off Europe protest now?!

[Hydera]

lol a FPÖ-SPÖ coalition?

Either the FPÖ wants to tarnish the reputation of SPÖ, or they want to become unpopular by being in power instead of staying as a protest vote. Or their trying to show that they can cooperate as a coalition partner in the future elections. I think this is the first time in a while that a Centre-left party ever decided to cooperate with the a populist rightwing party.

[Tender Branson]

lol a FPÖ-SPÖ coalition?

Either the FPÖ wants to tarnish the reputation of SPÖ, or they want to become unpopular by being in power instead of staying as a protest vote. Or their trying to show that they can cooperate as a coalition partner in the future elections. I think this is the first time in a while that a Centre-left party ever decided to cooperate with the a populist rightwing party.

I'd say this. They are now trying to get the best of both worlds: Showing voters that they can take government responsibility (and deliver ?), while at the same time remaining a protest party and attacking SPÖVP federally. If this works out until 2018, the FPÖ will likely win the federal election.

Also: Coalition talks in Styria are descending into madness and chaos. On election day, a renewed SPÖVP coalition there was about 100% certain, but with SPÖ-FPÖ now in Burgenland everything's back to the start now. By losing 18% combined, SPÖ and ÖVP are now suddenly uncomfortable to renew their "reform coalition".

But, Styria Governor Voves (SPÖ) rules out working with the FPÖ too, yet parts of the SPÖ like the unionists favour it because of "the signal that voters sent". The same is true for the ÖVP, with the leadership largely opposed and the base more open to a FPÖ-coalition ...

A coaltion other than SPÖ/ÖVP/FPÖ is totally unlikely, because the Greens and KPÖ are too weak or would never join a FPÖ-coalition. Maybe SPÖVP-Greens is an option as a last resort. Or new elections ... (which the FPÖ would likely win).

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll:



It should be noted that the Market poll before the Styria state election underestimated the FPÖ by 10% (!). But Market was never a good pollster and they constantly overestimate the Greens by 2-3% too.

http://derstandard.at/2000017015160/FPOe-fuenf-Prozentpunkte-vor-den-einzelnen-Koalitionsparteien

[Tender Branson]

Profil/Unique Research poll:

"Do you support or oppose a future participation of the FPÖ in the federal government ?"

39% support
53% oppose

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-knappe-mehrheit-freiheitliche-5679200

Support for the FPÖ in state governments is slightly higher, at 41% ...

[Tender Branson]

Current state governments in Austria:



Styria = TBD (currently SPÖVP)

Carinthia, Upper Austria and Lower Austria also have "Proporz", which means all parties above 10% also have a cabinet post.

[Kevinstat]

Current state governments in Austria:



Styria = TBD (currently SPÖVP)

Carinthia, Upper Austria and Lower Austria also have "Proporz", which means all parties above 10% also have a cabinet post.

So there's a coalition (not just some SPÖ cabinet members as mandated by "Proporz") in Lower Austria even though the ÖVP have an absolute majority?  Is that to increase the chance of remaining in power if they fall below 50% of seats?  I remember Voralberg had an ÖVP-FPÖ coalition at one time even though the ÖVP had a majority, and that coalition continued after the ÖVP lost its majority there.

Wow, the Greens sure have gotten into several Governments after their breakthrough in Vienna in 2010!

[Tender Branson]

Current state governments in Austria:



Styria = TBD (currently SPÖVP)

Carinthia, Upper Austria and Lower Austria also have "Proporz", which means all parties above 10% also have a cabinet post.

So there's a coalition (not just some SPÖ cabinet members as mandated by "Proporz") in Lower Austria even though the ÖVP have an absolute majority? Is that to increase the chance of remaining in power if they fall below 50% of seats?

Yes, the ÖVP has won an absolute majority in the 2013 state election in Lower Austria and continued their coalition with the SPÖ, even though the SPÖ would not be needed. But the Lower Austria Governor Pröll thinks it's good politics to invite the SPÖ despite this and he's a strong supporter of SPÖVP in general. He also has good ties to the federal SPÖ. It would also help him get some crossover support from SPÖ-voters if he decides to run for President next year.

I remember Voralberg had an ÖVP-FPÖ coalition at one time even though the ÖVP had a majority, and that coalition continued after the ÖVP lost its majority there.

Roughly the same story as in Lower Austria, just with the difference that Vorarlberg is very conservative and the FPÖ as a supplemental partner is more because of ideology: The ÖVP wants to share their power with another right-wing party to represent more people in the state.

Wow, the Greens sure have gotten into several Governments after their breakthrough in Vienna in 2010!

Yes, but the first coalition with Greens included was actually established in Upper Austria in 2003 and re-established in 2009. Will be interesting to see what happens after the state election in September. For now, ÖVP-Greens are still above 50% - but even in Upper Austria the FPÖ is expected to gain ground to around 20-25% and ÖVP-Greens could lose their majority.

[Tender Branson]

Each day now, ÖVP-FPÖ looks more and more likely in Styria ... but still a long way to go.

[Tender Branson]

Today, there have been first talks between SPÖ and FPÖ in Styria - which means SPÖ/FPÖ could be possible too.

But Gov. Voves (SPÖ) said that a coalition like this would be "without him", which could mean he's stepping down if the broader party committee really wants SPÖ-FPÖ and then replaces him with another Governor candidate.

...

Meanwhile, under much pressure/criticism/protest, Chancellor Faymann (SPÖ) and the broader federal SPÖ-leadership has agreed to let state SPÖs enter coalitions with the FPÖ, but maintained a federal "ban" on working with them.

Many SPÖ-members are now quitting party membership because of this, incl. former MPs. They call it "unbearable" that the SPÖ is working with the FPÖ.

All of this of course is terrible news for SPÖ prospects in the Vienna state election in 4 months, where the FPÖ is on track to cross 30% (+4%) and the SPÖ likely to drop to 35% (-9%).

On the other hand, FPÖ-leader Strache is now showing the biggest self-confidence ever and recently said that "the FPÖ has replaced the SPÖ on most political issues and established itself as a new peoples party".

His goal is now to win a stunning Vienna upset and force mayor Häupl (SPÖ) to step down ...

[Tender Branson]

Another day with big and fast-changing political developments:

* Styria: SPÖ and ÖVP have internal crisis meetings today and they set press conferences for later in the afternoon. The word is that SPÖ-Gov. Voves will announce his resignation after the disastrous loss 2 weeks ago. The SPÖ-leadership will be completely restructured. It's unclear if the ÖVP's now Vice-Governor Schützenhöfer will also step down or not. But it seems that if at least one of the two does, there will be another SPÖVP coalition. Maybe the ÖVP will even get the Governorship ... or there will be a 50/50 solution with the ÖVP having the Gov. the first 2.5 years of the term and the SPÖ the final 2.5 years or vice-versa.

* Salzburg: Overnight, Austrian FPÖ-leader Strache has expelled the whole Salzburg-FPÖ leadership from the party (state FPÖ-leader Doppler and state-FPÖ parliamentary club leader Schnell). Also, 5 of the 6 state MPs for the FPÖ remain loyal to Doppler/Schnell and will be expelled as well, like 1 federal MP for the FPÖ and one BR (Bundesrat). The reason for the massive turmoil in the Salzburg-FPÖ was months of backstabbing, bad climate and intrigue. Strache now pulled the ripcord as a last resort, but the trouble won't end here because the FPÖ is now basically split and the expelled ones could create a new right-wing party. This is bad news for Strache, after having 2 weeks now with very positive news (elections wins in Bgld. and entering the government there and massive gains in Styria).

[Tender Branson]

Styria update:

The ÖVP pokered hard and won. SPÖ-Governor Voves stepped down today and SPÖVP was renewed for another 5 years, with the ÖVPs Hermann Schützenhöfer becoming the new Governor for all 5 years, despite the ÖVP finishing only 2nd in the state election.

Don't know exactly why the SPÖ didn't persist on getting the Governor post, but yeah ...

[Tender Branson]

Styria update:

The ÖVP pokered hard and won. SPÖ-Governor Voves stepped down today and SPÖVP was renewed for another 5 years, with the ÖVPs Hermann Schützenhöfer becoming the new Governor for all 5 years, despite the ÖVP finishing only 2nd in the state election.

Don't know exactly why the SPÖ didn't persist on getting the Governor post, but yeah ...

The "Standard" writes that Voves sacrificed himself for the greater good and to save Styria from an FPÖ-government participation.

For this he retired and allowed his long-time and close friend Schützenhöfer to take over as Governor for the ÖVP, to continue their reform partnership.

So, it can also be seen as less a victory for the ÖVP but more as a final gift from a honorary politician.

http://derstandard.at/2000017257500/Voves-Selbstopferung