Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

Hey, it might even work. Voters are strange things.

This poster campaign would only "work" if there's a 2nd poster wave which provides the SPÖ-solutions to these questions from the 1st wave.

But even then I seriously doubt that the SPÖ can "win" this election: at this moment, they can only bank on a massive overpolling of the FPÖ. Former SPÖ-voters who are disgusted with the SPÖ's policies and who are now telling pollsters that they will vote FPÖ, but who are switching back to voting SPÖ on election day.

But I'll rate these chances as very low in this heated asylum climate. I'll frankly eat a broomstick if the SPÖ loses less than 5% on October 11 ...

[Хahar 🤔]

I don't care if Strache endorses my post or not. The situation has become insane and the government cannot close their eyes forever. Even Amnesty International called the actions of our government a disaster today in their report:

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...the solution to which would be to create more facilities for asylum seekers to alleviate these harsh conditions, which, as it happens, is exactly what the government is doing!

[DavidB.]

I don't care if Strache endorses my post or not. The situation has become insane and the government cannot close their eyes forever. Even Amnesty International called the actions of our government a disaster today in their report:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...the solution to which would be to create more facilities for asylum seekers to alleviate these harsh conditions, which, as it happens, is exactly what the government is doing!

Yeah, this might be the best thing to do short-term in order to create better, more humane conditions for the immigrants that already managed to get in. Still, I also think Tender is right in his frustration about the government's ineptitude to stop the influx of immigrants, to which closing the borders - with or without involving the army - would be the obvious solution. Viktor Orbán must be happy with SPÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

I don't care if Strache endorses my post or not. The situation has become insane and the government cannot close their eyes forever. Even Amnesty International called the actions of our government a disaster today in their report:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...the solution to which would be to create more facilities for asylum seekers to alleviate these harsh conditions, which, as it happens, is exactly what the government is doing!

I agree with David on this: This would only be a solution for the short-term, but not the long term: The asylum seekers that are already in the country need to be better distributed among the Austrian towns, preferably only 1 family (or group) per town - to avoid "ghettos". Mass camps like the one in Traiskirchen, where Afghans are near Iraqis, next to Somalians and Syrians are just a cancer and create a third-world like atmosphere, including all sorts of excesses and crime. Better move only a handful of people into each of the 2.300 Austrian cities, based on their population size.

Of course, this is only the first step to diffuse this situation. The next logical step is to shut down the border, not just Austria-wide but European-wide or Schengen-wide, like I mentioned above. Because this is a major crisis, and according to the Schengen terms, the agreement can be suspended by 24 months and the border can once again be rigorously secured and illegals rounded up not just at the border but in the country too. Currently, the police is totally strained with their everyday job because they constantly have to pick up illegals accross the country, fingerprint and register them, transport them to the various camps and therefore neglect their everyday job of dealing with other (more important) crime.

If state functions like police work are this heavily impacted by the asylum crisis, this would be an example of why the Schengen agreement could be suspended. But apparently, the Schengen agreement can only be suspended to protect leaders of the G7 (or G8) with 25.000 police recently in Germany, but not to protect the Austrian population. Because safety for the political elite is of course much more important than safety for the general population and that of the illegals that are transported through Europe, crammed into buses with 40°C outside. Like chicken.

Sorry, but we now have to implement some harsh measures like border security to round up not just the 100.000s of illegals that want to come in and claim benefits, but also round up the reckless people smugglers, who are making profits out of them (including with cruel irony recently, ISIS, which has gone heavily into the people smuggling business).

Strict border control with the military and swift deportations of illegals, as well as tough sentences of people smugglers, would not only send a strong signal to the criminals but also to the millions of potential migrants waiting in Africa and the Middle East that Austria is no place to go to and claim benefits, without ever having paid into the system - like the retired Austrian woman who is on minimum pension and receives the samt amount of money like a recently arrived asylum seeker ...

Sry to shatter your naive dreams, Xahar. But the truck needs to stop at the border. NOW !

[Tender Branson]

The Vienna election department has released preliminary numbers of eligible voters for the Oct. 11 state and district elections:

* 1.143.045 people are eligible to vote in the state election (Austrian citizens aged 16+ only)
* 1.327.282 people are eligible to vote in the district elections (Austrian + EU citizens aged 16+)

And now the interesting part:

The number of people eligible to vote in the state election has decreased by 1.500 people compared with the 2010 state election. A reason for this is mostly because Austrian citizens flee the city of Vienna and move to the suburbs. Also, Austrian citizens have not only a negative migration balance in Vienna, but also a birth deficit - which is not made up by enough naturalisations of foreign citizens.

The overall population of Vienna has increased from 1.70 million in Oct. 2010 to 1.83 million this October.

That's a reason why the number of eligible voters for the district elections has increased significantly as well over the last 5 years (many people from other EU countries moved to Vienna).

https://www.wien.gv.at/politik-verwaltung/wahlberechtigte.html

[DavidB.]

The Vienna election department has released preliminary numbers of eligible voters for the Oct. 11 state and district elections:

* 1.143.045 people are eligible to vote in the state election (Austrian citizens aged 16+ only)
* 1.327.282 people are eligible to vote in the district elections (Austrian + EU citizens aged 16+)

And now the interesting part:

The number of people eligible to vote in the state election has decreased by 1.500 people compared with the 2010 state election. A reason for this is mostly because Austrian citizens flee the city of Vienna and move to the suburbs. Also, Austrian citizens have not only a negative migration balance in Vienna, but also a birth deficit - which is not made up by enough naturalisations of foreign citizens.

The overall population of Vienna has increased from 1.70 million in Oct. 2010 to 1.83 million this October.

That's a reason why the number of eligible voters for the district elections has increased significantly as well over the last 5 years (many people from other EU countries moved to Vienna).

https://www.wien.gv.at/politik-verwaltung/wahlberechtigte.html

Interesting. What suburbs are considered "white flight suburbs"?

[Tender Branson]

Interesting. What suburbs are considered "white flight suburbs"?

It's hard to say which suburbs are exactly the biggest magnets for Vienna residents with Austrian citizenship.

The matrix at STATISTICS Austria only breaks down the intra-migration of citizens by state and it shows that last year, Lower Austria had a net gain of 4.500 people from Vienna with Austrian citizenship, while Burgenland had a gain of 500 people.

It can be said that the districts just around Vienna and in the north of Burgenland (around the Lake Neusiedl) are the biggest draws for Austrians fleeing Vienna.

And, of course many Vienna citizens are also moving abroad. So there's a big net loss to abroad as well.

http://www.statistik.at/web_de/statistiken/menschen_und_gesellschaft/bevoelkerung/wanderungen/wanderungen_innerhalb_oesterreichs_binnenwanderungen/023067.html

[rob in cal]

    Is "white flight" the appropriate term for Viennese moving out to the suburbs?  Aren't most of the new comers from other parts of Europe?  If so, would this be more of a class flight (too many poorer Serbians and Croats moving into the neighborhood, time to move), than a white flight situation?

[DavidB.]

Is "white flight" the appropriate term for Viennese moving out to the suburbs?  Aren't most of the new comers from other parts of Europe?  If so, would this be more of a class flight (too many poorer Serbians and Croats moving into the neighborhood, time to move), than a white flight situation?

Don't forget the Turkish. I know that my uncle and aunt moved from Vienna to North Burgenland, which wasn't entirely unrelated to the fact that Turkish guys would call my aunt a "slut" when she walked on the street wearing a normal skirt. Still, you could of course argue that Turks are as "white" as Europeans, but I'd still count the phenomenon as "white flight". You could probably also call it "native flight".

[Cranberry]

I wouldn't call it a "flight" at all, don't forget we are talking about numbers of for example 4'500 people per year from Vienna to Lower Austria. There is probably a far bigger movement of the same reason - a "white flight" if you want to call it so - within the city limits of Vienna, which, as being quite extensive when compared to some American cities, also include quite a number of middle class to upper class suburbs, which for many Viennese are just as attractive to move to as Mistelbach (district bordering Vienna in Lower Austria) or Neusiedl am See (Northern Burgenland).

[Tender Branson]

Both the president of the German police union and the CSU in Bavaria are now demanding a temporary suspension of the Schengen agreement to seal the border and round up the illegals and people smugglers that are coming through Swiss-cheese-like Austria.

http://derstandard.at/2000020786560/Bayerischer-Innenminister-will-Grenzkontrollen-zu-Oesterreich-ausbauen

[Tender Branson]

Both the president of the German police union and the CSU in Bavaria are now demanding a temporary suspension of the Schengen agreement to seal the border and round up the illegals and people smugglers that are coming through Swiss-cheese-like Austria.

http://derstandard.at/2000020786560/Bayerischer-Innenminister-will-Grenzkontrollen-zu-Oesterreich-ausbauen

The asylum saga continues today, with:

Austria rejecting calls for German border controls

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http://www.thelocal.at/20150817/austria-rejects-calls-for-german-border-controls

...

Meanwhile the SPÖVP government with the help of the Greens announced today that they agreed on amending the constitution with a new "Law of Force" that would allow them to force every community in Austria to take in a certain amount of asylum seekers.

Until now, the Austrian communities and mayors had veto power under Austrian federalism.

Now, with their power grab they will distribute all asylum seekers evenly (which in theory would not be bad), and every town has to take in asylum seekers worth 1.5% of the towns population. For Austria as a whole, that means SPÖVP/Greens plan to distribute 130.000 asylum seekers accross the country. That's 50.000 more than are projected to arrive this year and a recipe for even more people switching over to the FPÖ in disgust of this policy ...

All this comes with no border controls introduced, which means SPÖVP+Greens are also sending a message to the millions of asylum seekers on the move to Central Europe that Austria is a wide open barn where they can just come in and claim asylum and the government even welcomes these masses ...

The distribution accross Austria would only make sense if it comes with increased border controls and rapid deportations.

Also, the costs of housing the 100.000s of asylum seekers should be considered: A few years ago, we spent 50 Mio. € on asylum costs - that number will rise to 500 Mio. € this year.

http://derstandard.at/2000020850062/Asyl-SPOe-OeVP-und-Gruene-einigten-sich-bei-Durchgriffsrecht

[Cranberry]

New Market poll for "Standard"



Hypothetical direct chancellor's votes brings the following results:

Mitterlehner (ÖVP) - 20
Strache (FPÖ) - 17
Faymann (SPÖ, inc) - 14
Glawischnig (Greens) - 11
Stolz (NEOS) - 6
Stronach (TS) - 1

66% of Austrians say the country is on the wrong track
80% think the government is incapable of solving the country's problems

[MaxQue]

66% of Austrians say the country is on the wrong track
80% think the government is incapable of solving the country's problems

Yet, 45% would vote for a current government party.

It's telling much about the opposition.

[DavidB.]

66% of Austrians say the country is on the wrong track
80% think the government is incapable of solving the country's problems

Yet, 45% would vote for a current government party.

It's telling much about the opposition.

Yet the fact that a despicable party like the FPÖ is at an all-time high in the polls is telling much about the government...

And if you don't like this government, it doesn't necessarily mean that one cannot like one of the government parties, or vote for them, even though the reasons why people would like the SPÖ or the ÖVP are beyond me.

[Cranberry]

And if you don't like this government, it doesn't necessarily mean that one cannot like one of the government parties, or vote for them, even though the reasons why people would like the SPÖ or the ÖVP are beyond me.

Pensioneers and public employees, also farmers and priests for the ÖVP. I can't think of anyone else

[Tender Branson]

There's an annual tradition in Austria during the summer months, in which somedude (or woman) from the ORF (the public broadcaster) interviews all party leaders in a "summer interview" about political and personal issues. Every Monday, a leader is questioned for 1 hour during primetime.



This Monday, FPÖ-leader Strache was the one interviewed and the session had the biggest TV audience of any summer interview since the start of this stuff in the early 1990s: About 1 million people watched the interview, which is one sixth of the Austrian electorate (in US terms, that would amount to ca. 40 million viewers).

Frank Stronach also attracted huge numbers: 827.000 viewers

Eva Glawischnig (Greens) had 628.000 and Matthias Strolz (NEOS) 563.000

Mitterlehner (ÖVP) will be interviewed next week and Faymann (SPÖ) in two weeks, but neither will come anywhere close to Strache's record.

http://derstandard.at/2000020877889/Strache-schlaegt-Stronach-992-000-Zuschauer-neuer-Sommergespraech-Hoechststand

[DavidB.]

This Monday, FPÖ-leader Strache was the one interviewed and the session had the biggest TV audience of any summer interview since the start of this stuff in the early 1990s: About 1 million people watched the interview, which is one sixth of the Austrian electorate (in US terms, that would amount to ca. 40 million viewers).

What did he actually have to say? Do you think he convinced many people? Was it a "relaxing in the garden and talking lightly about some stuff" summer interview or was it a real, tough interview? I don't think ORF likes him so much...

[Tender Branson]

This Monday, FPÖ-leader Strache was the one interviewed and the session had the biggest TV audience of any summer interview since the start of this stuff in the early 1990s: About 1 million people watched the interview, which is one sixth of the Austrian electorate (in US terms, that would amount to ca. 40 million viewers).

What did he actually have to say? Do you think he convinced many people? Was it a "relaxing in the garden and talking lightly about some stuff" summer interview or was it a real, tough interview? I don't think ORF likes him so much...

I actually didn't watch it, but I guess the usual FPÖ-stuff. Nothing controversial though, because it would have been in the newspaper if he did so.

Maybe Cranberry watched it ...

[Cranberry]

Yeah I did, I started to watch it at least, but because it was quite boring (and I was quite tired) I didn't watch it until the end.

Strache was quite boring, he had his usual few phrases (relating everything somehow to "foreigners and the EU are to blame"), talked a bit about Traiskirchen / asylum seekers in general, said he opposed basically everything that was offered as a solution but offered none himself... Typical Strache so, he seemed quite scripted as usual, and the interveiwer was quite lame and instead of really asking he kind of provided an opportunity for Strache to perfectly lay out his program with no questions or interruptions, only to some time come with really bad, or maybe even, "mean" questions...

[Tender Branson]

Yeah I did, I started to watch it at least, but because it was quite boring (and I was quite tired) I didn't watch it until the end.

Strache was quite boring, he had his usual few phrases (relating everything somehow to "foreigners and the EU are to blame"), talked a bit about Traiskirchen / asylum seekers in general, said he opposed basically everything that was offered as a solution but offered none himself... Typical Strache so, he seemed quite scripted as usual, and the interveiwer was quite lame and instead of really asking he kind of provided an opportunity for Strache to perfectly lay out his program with no questions or interruptions, only to some time come with really bad, or maybe even, "mean" questions...

A typical "summer interview" then ...

I suppose most viewers tuned out after 15 minutes ...

I've read on the Standard that Strache is now a climate-change denier. He and Snowguy would probably have enough to talk & agree about ... LOL #issnowguyaclosetFPÖvoter?

[Tender Branson]

A new Gallup poll today shows that 2/3 of Austrians want to re-introduce border controls:

66% re-introduce border controls
27% keep the free movement in place

Also:

"Would you mind if your municipality takes up asylum seekers worth 1.5% of the municipal population ?"

61% don't mind
25% would have a problem with it

"Would you personally house asylum seekers in your apartment/house ?"

70% No
23% Yes

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20150821_OTS0001/oesterreich-umfrage-66-fuer-wiedereinfuehrung-von-grenzkontrollen

[Hydera]

A new Gallup poll today shows that 2/3 of Austrians want to re-introduce border controls:

66% re-introduce border controls
27% keep the free movement in place

Also:

"Would you mind if your municipality takes up asylum seekers worth 1.5% of the municipal population ?"

61% don't mind
25% would have a problem with it

"Would you personally house asylum seekers in your apartment/house ?"

70% No
23% Yes

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20150821_OTS0001/oesterreich-umfrage-66-fuer-wiedereinfuehrung-von-grenzkontrollen

Lol 23% of the population has more control over immigration policies than the 70% of austrians.

What a shocker...

[Tender Branson]

The Oct. 11 Vienna state election is the last remaining hope for the liberal NEOS to stop their downward trend.

With this in mind, NEOS-Vienna is launching a massive poster campaign against both the SPÖ and the FPÖ.

In their anti-SPÖ posters, NEOS mocks the ridiculous SPÖ-posters (which I have posted recently):



"Since 21 years, mayor Häupl is in charge of Vienna. But of what use is it to me if I have no job ?"

"Real change for Vienna."



"Häupl is plastering Vienna with posters. But of what use is it to me if he ignores my education ?"

"Real change for Vienna."



"Häupl is a master of cronyism*. But that's not helping my business."

"Real change for Vienna."

(* that slogan only makes real sense in German with the word Freunderlwirtschaft)

...

In their anti-FPÖ posters, they put several FPÖ politicians on posters and some of their controversial remarks:



Strache - The everlasting hate preacher: "We are the new Jews."



Steger - The valiant crusader: "What does the legalisation of homosexual 'marriages' have in common with the civil war in Syria ? The common factor is that in both cases we are seeing signs of the self-destructive disposition that is devouring Europe."

[DC Al Fine]

66% of Austrians say the country is on the wrong track
80% think the government is incapable of solving the country's problems

Yet, 45% would vote for a current government party.

It's telling much about the opposition.

Yet the fact that a despicable party like the FPÖ is at an all-time high in the polls is telling much about the government...

And if you don't like this government, it doesn't necessarily mean that one cannot like one of the government parties, or vote for them, even though the reasons why people would like the SPÖ or the ÖVP are beyond me.

Frankly, some time out of government would do SPOVP some good, both internally and in their electoral prospects.

Right now where they are in a feedback loop:

1) SPOVP implement unpopular policies
2) Support leaks to FPO
3) There is no viable alternative to SPOVP so they are reelected

And so on and so forth. I don't really see the loop ending until some sort of alternative government is formed.