Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

New Upper Austria state election poll (Gallup):



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Hammer-fuer-Puehringer/201338305

...

I think you need to shave off 1% each from ÖVP, SPÖ, NEOS and Others and add these 4% to the FPÖ and you will roughly have the eventual election result for September 27.

[Tender Branson]

New day, new high for the FPÖ in federal polling ...

Profil/Unique Research poll:

31% FPÖ
23% ÖVP
22% SPÖ
13% Greens
  7% NEOS
  4% Others

Strache also leads the Chancellor vote:

19% Strache (FPÖ)
16% Mitterlehner (ÖVP)
16% Faymann (SPÖ-Inc.)
10% Glawischnig (Greens)
  4% Strolz (NEOS)
35% Other/None of them

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-fpoe-erster-5822911

[Cranberry]

66% of Austrians say the country is on the wrong track
80% think the government is incapable of solving the country's problems

Yet, 45% would vote for a current government party.

It's telling much about the opposition.

Yet the fact that a despicable party like the FPÖ is at an all-time high in the polls is telling much about the government...

And if you don't like this government, it doesn't necessarily mean that one cannot like one of the government parties, or vote for them, even though the reasons why people would like the SPÖ or the ÖVP are beyond me.

Frankly, some time out of government would do SPOVP some good, both internally and in their electoral prospects.

Right now where they are in a feedback loop:

1) SPOVP implement unpopular policies
2) Support leaks to FPO
3) There is no viable alternative to SPOVP so they are reelected

And so on and so forth. I don't really see the loop ending until some sort of alternative government is formed.

Yes, the best prospect we can hope for at the moment, imo, is currently if ÖVP/FPÖ form government before the next elections, with the ensuing backslash giving rise to a credible, strong "centre-left opposition" of SPÖ, Greens and NEOS, which would then preferably win the next elections and finally give Austria a government option that's different from the two horribles Grand Coalition and FPÖ with ÖVP. One can still dream, right?

[Tender Branson]

66% of Austrians say the country is on the wrong track
80% think the government is incapable of solving the country's problems

Yet, 45% would vote for a current government party.

It's telling much about the opposition.

Yet the fact that a despicable party like the FPÖ is at an all-time high in the polls is telling much about the government...

And if you don't like this government, it doesn't necessarily mean that one cannot like one of the government parties, or vote for them, even though the reasons why people would like the SPÖ or the ÖVP are beyond me.

Frankly, some time out of government would do SPOVP some good, both internally and in their electoral prospects.

Right now where they are in a feedback loop:

1) SPOVP implement unpopular policies
2) Support leaks to FPO
3) There is no viable alternative to SPOVP so they are reelected

And so on and so forth. I don't really see the loop ending until some sort of alternative government is formed.

Yes, the best prospect we can hope for at the moment, imo, is currently if ÖVP/FPÖ form government before the next elections, with the ensuing backslash giving rise to a credible, strong "centre-left opposition" of SPÖ, Greens and NEOS, which would then preferably win the next elections and finally give Austria a government option that's different from the two horribles Grand Coalition and FPÖ with ÖVP. One can still dream, right?

That's currently impossible though: The ÖVP would have to buy a few more Team Stronach MPs for that to happen. Currently, they are 3 MPs short of an ÖVP-FPÖ majority in parliament. But even if they find 3 more MPs that switch over, Strache has already said that the FPÖ would never enter a coalition with the ÖVP before the term is over. Also, we cannot assume that a new ÖVP-FPÖ coalition would automatically mean that they screw things up and enable a revival of SPÖ+Greens+NEOS. The chances for that are good, but they could also succeed with their policies ... you never know. Also, it would depend what the SPÖ does: Faymann needs to be badly sent into retirement, this guy is a walking and smiling douche. He just organized a "Chancellor party" in Vienna, when there's a massive asylum crisis going on and 500.000 unemployed are looking for jobs (btw, twice the number from when Faymann took office). Faymann and the current SPÖ are a total failure. Only with a fresh (preferably young) face and a "back to the roots strategy" will the SPÖ be able again to regain traction. But not with this current inept leadership, for which political correctness and the wellbeing of 100000s of asylum seekers is more important than the interests of the Austrian people ...

[Cranberry]

66% of Austrians say the country is on the wrong track
80% think the government is incapable of solving the country's problems

Yet, 45% would vote for a current government party.

It's telling much about the opposition.

Yet the fact that a despicable party like the FPÖ is at an all-time high in the polls is telling much about the government...

And if you don't like this government, it doesn't necessarily mean that one cannot like one of the government parties, or vote for them, even though the reasons why people would like the SPÖ or the ÖVP are beyond me.

Frankly, some time out of government would do SPOVP some good, both internally and in their electoral prospects.

Right now where they are in a feedback loop:

1) SPOVP implement unpopular policies
2) Support leaks to FPO
3) There is no viable alternative to SPOVP so they are reelected

And so on and so forth. I don't really see the loop ending until some sort of alternative government is formed.

Yes, the best prospect we can hope for at the moment, imo, is currently if ÖVP/FPÖ form government before the next elections, with the ensuing backslash giving rise to a credible, strong "centre-left opposition" of SPÖ, Greens and NEOS, which would then preferably win the next elections and finally give Austria a government option that's different from the two horribles Grand Coalition and FPÖ with ÖVP. One can still dream, right?

That's currently impossible though: The ÖVP would have to buy a few more Team Stronach MPs for that to happen. Currently, they are 3 MPs short of an ÖVP-FPÖ majority in parliament. But even if they find 3 more MPs that switch over, Strache has already said that the FPÖ would never enter a coalition with the ÖVP before the term is over. Also, we cannot assume that a new ÖVP-FPÖ coalition would automatically mean that they screw things up and enable a revival of SPÖ+Greens+NEOS. The chances for that are good, but they could also succeed with their policies ... you never know. Also, it would depend what the SPÖ does: Faymann needs to be badly sent into retirement, this guy is a walking and smiling douche. He just organized a "Chancellor party" in Vienna, when there's a massive asylum crisis going on and 500.000 unemployed are looking for jobs (btw, twice the number from when Faymann took office). Faymann and the current SPÖ are a total failure. Only with a fresh (preferably young) face and a "back to the roots strategy" will the SPÖ be able again to regain traction. But not with this current inept leadership, for which political correctness and the wellbeing of 100000s of asylum seekers is more important than the interests of the Austrian people ...

As I said, one can still dream

I know it's virtually impossible, I have long enough followed Austrian politics to know what will eventually always be the end result (spoiler alert: the bad guys win).

Just one short correction - ÖVP/FPÖ would not be short of a majority - there are currently three independent members of parliament, two former FPÖ and that one former Stronach MP that left a few days ago; and if Lopatka got through with his reshuffle, I guess it'd be the smallest of problems to get those three to join the new government's majority.

[Tender Branson]

66% of Austrians say the country is on the wrong track
80% think the government is incapable of solving the country's problems

Yet, 45% would vote for a current government party.

It's telling much about the opposition.

Yet the fact that a despicable party like the FPÖ is at an all-time high in the polls is telling much about the government...

And if you don't like this government, it doesn't necessarily mean that one cannot like one of the government parties, or vote for them, even though the reasons why people would like the SPÖ or the ÖVP are beyond me.

Frankly, some time out of government would do SPOVP some good, both internally and in their electoral prospects.

Right now where they are in a feedback loop:

1) SPOVP implement unpopular policies
2) Support leaks to FPO
3) There is no viable alternative to SPOVP so they are reelected

And so on and so forth. I don't really see the loop ending until some sort of alternative government is formed.

Yes, the best prospect we can hope for at the moment, imo, is currently if ÖVP/FPÖ form government before the next elections, with the ensuing backslash giving rise to a credible, strong "centre-left opposition" of SPÖ, Greens and NEOS, which would then preferably win the next elections and finally give Austria a government option that's different from the two horribles Grand Coalition and FPÖ with ÖVP. One can still dream, right?

That's currently impossible though: The ÖVP would have to buy a few more Team Stronach MPs for that to happen. Currently, they are 3 MPs short of an ÖVP-FPÖ majority in parliament. But even if they find 3 more MPs that switch over, Strache has already said that the FPÖ would never enter a coalition with the ÖVP before the term is over. Also, we cannot assume that a new ÖVP-FPÖ coalition would automatically mean that they screw things up and enable a revival of SPÖ+Greens+NEOS. The chances for that are good, but they could also succeed with their policies ... you never know. Also, it would depend what the SPÖ does: Faymann needs to be badly sent into retirement, this guy is a walking and smiling douche. He just organized a "Chancellor party" in Vienna, when there's a massive asylum crisis going on and 500.000 unemployed are looking for jobs (btw, twice the number from when Faymann took office). Faymann and the current SPÖ are a total failure. Only with a fresh (preferably young) face and a "back to the roots strategy" will the SPÖ be able again to regain traction. But not with this current inept leadership, for which political correctness and the wellbeing of 100000s of asylum seekers is more important than the interests of the Austrian people ...

As I said, one can still dream

I know it's virtually impossible, I have long enough followed Austrian politics to know what will eventually always be the end result (spoiler alert: the bad guys win).

Just one short correction - ÖVP/FPÖ would not be short of a majority - there are currently three independent members of parliament, two former FPÖ and that one former Stronach MP that left a few days ago; and if Lopatka got through with his reshuffle, I guess it'd be the smallest of problems to get those three to join the new government's majority.

With the 3 Indy MPs ÖVP-FPÖ would be possible right now, yeah (92-91 seats).

But Lopatka has also said that he would not lure MPs to the ÖVP who previously were members of the FPÖ or BZÖ, which means 2 of the 3 Indys would be out of consideration.

Also, Strache did not just rule out the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition before 2018 - he would never enter an agreement either that depends on the backing of the 2 former FPÖ-MPs that he himself kicked out of the party earlier this year ...

[Cranberry]

66% of Austrians say the country is on the wrong track
80% think the government is incapable of solving the country's problems

Yet, 45% would vote for a current government party.

It's telling much about the opposition.

Yet the fact that a despicable party like the FPÖ is at an all-time high in the polls is telling much about the government...

And if you don't like this government, it doesn't necessarily mean that one cannot like one of the government parties, or vote for them, even though the reasons why people would like the SPÖ or the ÖVP are beyond me.

Frankly, some time out of government would do SPOVP some good, both internally and in their electoral prospects.

Right now where they are in a feedback loop:

1) SPOVP implement unpopular policies
2) Support leaks to FPO
3) There is no viable alternative to SPOVP so they are reelected

And so on and so forth. I don't really see the loop ending until some sort of alternative government is formed.

Yes, the best prospect we can hope for at the moment, imo, is currently if ÖVP/FPÖ form government before the next elections, with the ensuing backslash giving rise to a credible, strong "centre-left opposition" of SPÖ, Greens and NEOS, which would then preferably win the next elections and finally give Austria a government option that's different from the two horribles Grand Coalition and FPÖ with ÖVP. One can still dream, right?

That's currently impossible though: The ÖVP would have to buy a few more Team Stronach MPs for that to happen. Currently, they are 3 MPs short of an ÖVP-FPÖ majority in parliament. But even if they find 3 more MPs that switch over, Strache has already said that the FPÖ would never enter a coalition with the ÖVP before the term is over. Also, we cannot assume that a new ÖVP-FPÖ coalition would automatically mean that they screw things up and enable a revival of SPÖ+Greens+NEOS. The chances for that are good, but they could also succeed with their policies ... you never know. Also, it would depend what the SPÖ does: Faymann needs to be badly sent into retirement, this guy is a walking and smiling douche. He just organized a "Chancellor party" in Vienna, when there's a massive asylum crisis going on and 500.000 unemployed are looking for jobs (btw, twice the number from when Faymann took office). Faymann and the current SPÖ are a total failure. Only with a fresh (preferably young) face and a "back to the roots strategy" will the SPÖ be able again to regain traction. But not with this current inept leadership, for which political correctness and the wellbeing of 100000s of asylum seekers is more important than the interests of the Austrian people ...

As I said, one can still dream

I know it's virtually impossible, I have long enough followed Austrian politics to know what will eventually always be the end result (spoiler alert: the bad guys win).

Just one short correction - ÖVP/FPÖ would not be short of a majority - there are currently three independent members of parliament, two former FPÖ and that one former Stronach MP that left a few days ago; and if Lopatka got through with his reshuffle, I guess it'd be the smallest of problems to get those three to join the new government's majority.

With the 3 Indy MPs ÖVP-FPÖ would be possible right now, yeah (92-91 seats).

But Lopatka has also said that he would not lure MPs to the ÖVP who previously were members of the FPÖ or BZÖ, which means 2 of the 3 Indys would be out of consideration.

Also, Strache did not just rule out the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition before 2018 - he would never enter an agreement either that depends on the backing of the 2 former FPÖ-MPs that he himself kicked out of the party earlier this year ...

Lopatka also said that he wouldn't contact any more Team Stronach members the evening before he did. That guy will say anything he likes before doing the exact opposite.

I agree he won't in all likelihood enter a ÖVP-FPÖ before new elections, but more so because it would be the other way round (FPÖ/ÖVP) after elections, from today's point of view at least. If things were to change however and ÖVP-FPÖ were to become talked and negotiated about, do you really think Strache wouldn't take back those two if he needed them?

[DavidB.]

The Oct. 11 Vienna state election is the last remaining hope for the liberal NEOS to stop their downward trend.

With this in mind, NEOS-Vienna is launching a massive poster campaign against both the SPÖ and the FPÖ.

In their anti-SPÖ posters, NEOS mocks the ridiculous SPÖ-posters (which I have posted recently):



"Since 21 years, mayor Häupl is in charge of Vienna. But of what use is it to me if I have no job ?"

"Real change for Vienna."



"Häupl is plastering Vienna with posters. But of what use is it to me if he ignores my education ?"

"Real change for Vienna."



"Häupl is a master of cronyism*. But that's not helping my business."

"Real change for Vienna."

(* that slogan only makes real sense in German with the word Freunderlwirtschaft)

...

In their anti-FPÖ posters, they put several FPÖ politicians on posters and some of their controversial remarks:



Strache - The everlasting hate preacher: "We are the new Jews."



Steger - The valiant crusader: "What does the legalisation of homosexual 'marriages' have in common with the civil war in Syria ? The common factor is that in both cases we are seeing signs of the self-destructive disposition that is devouring Europe."

Wow. It amazes be, but this actually seems like a party I could vote for (only on the local level though, nationally it's too D66 for me)... Quite special, for this is Austria after all.

However, they should have picked a better name. "Neos" in Austria just doesn't sound right. Frankly, it sounds like the name some sort of Austrian NPD would give themselves. When I told people of the existence of this party, they all laughed at the name, and it was more of an "awkwaaaard!" kind of laughter than a positive kind. Is it only the Dutch who have this connotation with everything "neo" in German-speaking countries, or do Austrians actually feel the same way?

[Tender Branson]

Wow. It amazes me, but this actually seems like a party I could vote for (only on the local level though, nationally it's too D66 for me)... Quite special, for this is Austria after all.

However, they should have picked a better name. "Neos" in Austria just doesn't sound right. Frankly, it sounds like the name some sort of Austrian NPD would give themselves. When I told people of the existence of this party, they all laughed at the name, and it was more of an "awkwaaaard!" kind of laughter than a positive kind. Is it only the Dutch who have this connotation with everything "neo" in German-speaking countries, or do Austrians actually feel the same way?

NEOS doesn't really sound strange from an Austrian perspective, certainly not more so than for example "D66" ...

It's only Greek (or Latin ?) for "new".

Also, an "Austrian NPD" would not name itself NEOS but something much longer like the banned "Volkstreue außerparlamentarische Opposition" or the "Arbeitsgemeinschaft für demokratische Politik".

[DavidB.]

Wow. It amazes me, but this actually seems like a party I could vote for (only on the local level though, nationally it's too D66 for me)... Quite special, for this is Austria after all.

However, they should have picked a better name. "Neos" in Austria just doesn't sound right. Frankly, it sounds like the name some sort of Austrian NPD would give themselves. When I told people of the existence of this party, they all laughed at the name, and it was more of an "awkwaaaard!" kind of laughter than a positive kind. Is it only the Dutch who have this connotation with everything "neo" in German-speaking countries, or do Austrians actually feel the same way?

NEOS doesn't really sound strange from an Austrian perspective, certainly not more so than for example "D66" ...

It's only Greek (or Latin ?) for "new".

Also, an "Austrian NPD" would not name itself NEOS but something much longer like the banned "Volkstreue außerparlamentarische Opposition" or the "Arbeitsgemeinschaft für demokratische Politik".

Fair enough, then it's something Dutch to think of nazis when someone talks about anything "neo" (of which I know the meaning after five years of Ancient Greek in high school ). Austrians would be right with regard to D66 if they would consider that party strange

[Cranberry]

I honestly don't get why NEOS or "neo" would have anything to do with Nazis? Would you please explain, I'm genuinely curious

[DavidB.]

I honestly don't get why NEOS or "neo" would have anything to do with Nazis? Would you please explain, I'm genuinely curious

Because "neo-nazi" is probably the word with "neo" that's most well-known among Dutch.

[Cranberry]

I honestly don't get why NEOS or "neo" would have anything to do with Nazis? Would you please explain, I'm genuinely curious

Because "neo-nazi" is probably the word with "neo" that's most well-known among Dutch.

Ah, yeah, now that you say it... I didn't really think of that at all, though; must really be a Dutch thing
I can see why people think that way, though, but I doubt that many Austrians would... It's really strange, our languages are so similar, and yet we have to seem quite different connotations.

[Tender Branson]

First poster wave of the Vienna-FPÖ for the Oct. 11 state election:



From top to bottom:

"FPÖ - The social homeland party."

"October Revolution: Vienna changes Häupl* for HC Strache, and takes sweet revenge for Red-Green*."

---

* (Michael) Häupl is the current mayor from the SPÖ.

* Red-Green is the current city government.

Also notice how the FPÖ continues their rhyming ... (Strache => Rache)

[DavidB.]

This is f***ing terrible. Something needs to change. I think this will influence Austrian politics as well.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/austria-lorry-migrants-eu-refugee-crisis-50-asylumseekers-found-dead-in-a-lorry-10474464.html

[Cranberry]

Heard of this this afternoon, this story is beyond horrible.

[Tender Branson]

I think this will influence Austrian politics as well.

I don't see how. It won't even influence EU politics really.

[Tender Branson]

This is f***ing terrible. Something needs to change. I think this will influence Austrian politics as well.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/austria-lorry-migrants-eu-refugee-crisis-50-asylumseekers-found-dead-in-a-lorry-10474464.html

The Interior Minister has now in fact issued something: That the police will now launch a massive campaign at the eastern border to stop foreign trucks that are coming in, pull them over and search them for illegals and arrest people smugglers.

http://derstandard.at/2000021484785/Mikl-Leitner-startet-Aktion-scharf-an-Grenzuebergaengen

A good start, but a lot more needs to be done.

[DavidB.]

You're probably right with regard to the tragedy's effects on politics, Tender.

Just in time, the police stopped another lorry full of people who had gone through a similar kind of hell. They went to a hospital in... Braunau.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/29/three-children-critical-after-being-rescued-from-lorry-in-austria

[Tender Branson]

You're probably right with regard to the tragedy's effects on politics, Tender.

Just in time, the police stopped another lorry full of people who had gone through a similar kind of hell. They went to a hospital in... Braunau.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/29/three-children-critical-after-being-rescued-from-lorry-in-austria

Yes, I've read that today. Meanwhile, the children and their parents disappeared from the hospital without notice (I guess because they want to get to Germany).

Germany is now the "promised land" or something ...

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/08/30/436049255/refugee-children-rescued-in-austria-reportedly-disappear-from-hospital

[DavidB.]

Germany is now the "promised land" or something ...

Well, leaving Braunau for "promised land" Germany isn't really something new

On a serious note, today I read in a Dutch quality newspaper that Germany is apparently an extremely popular destination among migrants. They seem to absolutely love Merkel. This might actually be good for Austria, even though it's pretty unlikely the flood to Austria will stop anytime soon on a short term: the Hungarian fence turns out to be a joke, migrants simply cut it with an iron scissor.

Is there also something else happening in Austrian politics right now, or is it really only about immigration + asylum seekers right now? It seems like the state elections will be overshadowed by these issues...

[politicus]

the Hungarian fence turns out to be a joke, migrants simply cut it with an iron scissor.

It is temporary. The permanent "wall" they set up in November will be a different matter.

[DavidB.]

the Hungarian fence turns out to be a joke, migrants simply cut it with an iron scissor.

It is temporary. The permanent "wall" they set up in November will be a different matter.

Ah, I thought the "wall" was, in reality, a fence - this fence.

[Zanas]

Walls, walls everywhere... People build too many walls and not enough bridges. Isaac Newton may have said that. At least I do.

[Tender Branson]

Germany is now the "promised land" or something ...

Well, leaving Braunau for "promised land" Germany isn't really something new

On a serious note, today I read in a Dutch quality newspaper that Germany is apparently an extremely popular destination among migrants. They seem to absolutely love Merkel. This might actually be good for Austria, even though it's pretty unlikely the flood to Austria will stop anytime soon on a short term: the Hungarian fence turns out to be a joke, migrants simply cut it with an iron scissor.

Is there also something else happening in Austrian politics right now, or is it really only about immigration + asylum seekers right now? It seems like the state elections will be overshadowed by these issues...

No, the politicians are on summer break right now (they have way too much vacation anyway).

And yes, the coming state elections will definitely be overshadowed by these issues, also because SPÖVP have no plan on how to deal with the actual #1 issue: rising unemployment and the stagnant economy (which they are to blame for).