Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

The main FPÖ convention that takes place every 2 years was yesterday in Graz.



The party positioned itself for the EU elections next year, attacked SPÖVP and wants the EU elections to be a strong sign against them, wants new federal elections together with these EU elections and favours a return to the Austrian Schilling currency that is backed up with Gold and Silver, an "exit-strategy" out of the EU and the re-introduction of border controls as well as the traditional immigration stop.

Also, FPÖ-leader Strache got re-elected with over 96% of the roughly 500 delegates.

Strache also said: "Our time will come soon."

He also referred to the latest polls (FPÖ between 25-28%) as a good sign.

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/strache-am-parteitag-in-graz-unsere-zeit-naht/39.546.442

[Tender Branson]

Of course, there's no HC Strache without a cross nearby:

[Tender Branson]

Latest leaks coming from the coalition talks:

The ÖVP has apparently presented the SPÖ a coalition condition, that some privatisations of state-held companies down to a 25% control stock ("Sperrminorität") must be done in the next term. Otherwise the ÖVP is out as a coalition partner.

The selling of state-owned stocks in companies such as the OMV, the Post and the Telekom would bring about 1.5 Bio. € into the state pockets.

Of course the SPÖ is not amused, because it is generally opposed to more privatisations.

http://derstandard.at/1385170246651/Privatisierung-von-OMV-Telekom-Post-braechte-15-Milliarden

[Franzl]

So give me your best guess. How high is the chance that there will eventually be a SPÖVP government?

[Tender Branson]

So give me your best guess. How high is the chance that there will eventually be a SPÖVP government?

I'd say about 75%.

Despite what all the tabloids recently said ("Coalition talks about to end ?"), the talks made some progress in recent days, especially over the weekend where they talked another 20 hours combined.

Of course not much is coming through to the media, but it seems that the new SPÖVP coalition has agreed to a few tax increases that will not impact the middle class and the economy (I've already predicted this before, because that's typical of Austrian coalition talks).

Mainly an increase in tobacco taxes, alcohol taxes and the NoVa tax (which is a car sales tax for emmissions).

To keep the economy going, the social security payments for employers will be lowered.

Also, the SPÖ is now ready to talk about some privatisations and has virtually given up their plans for a wealth tax. But it seems that the solidarity payment of the 13th and 14th wages for people who earn more than 15.000€ a month will be extended.

http://derstandard.at/1385170299934/SPOe-und-OeVP-wollen-Steuern-erhoehen

http://derstandard.at/1385170271662/SPOe-signalisiert-Bewegung-beim-Thema-Privatisierungen

[Tender Branson]

Big parties near Austrian coalition deal, avoid big changes

VIENNA, Dec 10 (Reuters) - The two big pro-Europe parties that have dominated post-war Austrian politics are closing in on a deal to extend their coalition government by eschewing major change in favour of largely staying the course.

Barring last-minute surprises, Chancellor Werner Faymann's centre-left Social Democrats (SPO) and their junior partners, the conservative People's Party (OVP), will unveil a deal in days to extend the coalition that has governed since 2006.

Voters punished the two heavyweights in September elections - which bolstered the eurosceptic far right - by giving them historically low support.

But they appeared set on a broad continuation of existing policy in the Alpine republic, one of the European Union's most affluent and stable member states - although not without a need for some reforms.

"There is no big Social Democrat or People's Party project that is going to be realised. In all the important political areas we met in the middle and found a compromise," one SPO source said, declining to be named as talks were continuing.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/10/austria-government-idUSL6N0JP1Y920131210

[Tender Branson]

The budget group has now finished their talks and it looks like the 2014 and 2015 budgets are finalized and they have found enough revenues/cuts that the "zero-budget-deficit" can be accomplished in 2016.

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Also, they agreed to increase family/child benefits somehow (probably some incentive for voters, so that they don't turn to the FPÖ in the EU elections).

The coalition contract should now only be a matter of days, maybe another week.

http://derstandard.at/1385170593948/Familienbeihilfe-Scharfe-Kritik-der-Gemeinden

[Tender Branson]

ORF and Ö24 say that the coalition will likely be announced tomorrow, then over the weekend the contract will be debated within the party boards, minister candidates for the coalition will be talked about and agreed on.

Then on Monday, the Austrian President could swear in the new government and on Tuesday Chancellor Faymann and the cabinet members will give their introduction speeches.

http://orf.at/stories/2209970/2209978

[Tender Branson]

Austrian news media: The new government plus coalition contract will be announced tommorow.

Swearing in by the President on Monday.

[Tender Branson]

The final talk marathon takes place right now: They started at 7am today, now it's 10pm and the talks will last deep into the night.

Apparently, Spindelegger will become Finance Minister and Sebastian Kurz will become Foreign Minister.

I'll post the details tomorrow.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Sebastian Kurz will become Foreign Minister.

Wow... nice.

[Tender Branson]

Today is the 74th day after the election.

Here's a chart that shows how long it took to form the government after each election:



It took a bit longer than last time, but it's faster than in the previous 20 years.

[Tender Branson]

The VOL reports that the coalition talks (which lasted another 4 hours in the morning) have now come to an end:

http://www.vol.at/koalitionsverhandlungen-abgeschlossen/3797610

The Chancellor and the Vice-Chancellor will hold a press conference in the afternoon and announce the coalition deal.

Details about the coalition projects, tax measures etc. will be released tomorrow.

The new cabinet members (there will be some cabinet changes, mostly on the ÖVP-side) will be announced over the weekend.

Swearing in @ the President on Monday.

[Tender Branson]

The "Presse" confirms that Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) will become the new Foreign Minister, the youngest Minister ever in Austria (27). He will also continue to be responsible for Integration matters, which will be "outsourced" from the Interior Ministry to the Foreign Ministry.



Sonja Steßl-Mühlbacher (SPÖ) will become the new State Secretary for Finances:



Still unclear who will become the new Ministers for Justice and for Agriculture.

[Tender Branson]

Cabinet posts so far:

SPÖ

Chancellor: Werner Faymann (no change)

Education/Women: Gabriele Heinisch-Hosek (*new*, but actually not: H-H was already Women's Minister in the previous government, but it got merged with the Education Ministry now, which was led by Claudia Schmied, who retired)

Health: Alois Stöger (no change)

Defense/Sports: Gerald Klug (no change)

Transport/Infrastructure/Innovation/Technology: Doris Bures (no change)

Media/Civil Servants/Arts/Culture: Josef Ostermayer (*new*)

Labour/Social Issues/Consumer Protection: Rudolf Hundstorfer (no change)

State Secretary for Finances: Sonja Steßl-Mühlbacher (*new*)

...

ÖVP

Vice Chancellor: Michael Spindelegger (no change)

Finances: Michael Spindelegger (*new*)

Foreign Relations/EU/Integration: Sebastian Kurz (*new*)

Interior: Johanna Mikl-Leitner (no change)

Justice: not yet known

Agriculture/Forests/Environment: not yet known

Economy: Reinhold Mitterlehner (no change)

Science and Research: Karlheinz Töchterle (no change)

State Secretary for Finances: Jochen Danninger (*new*)

[Tender Branson]

"SPÖVP announce agreement: The best of both worlds."

...

F+S had a press conference about an hour ago, but that lasted only 10 minutes.

They talked about a few "headlines" of the coalition agreement, but answered no journalist questions.

Mostly because the 2 party boards will debate the coalition agreement tonight and talk about minister candidates.

There will be a big press conference tomorrow at 5pm, where the coalition agreement will be unveiled, the new ministers presented and journalist questions will be answered as well.

[Tender Branson]

New poll, new FPÖ-lead:

ATV Austria Trend

26% FPÖ (+5.5)
23% SPÖ (-4)
20% ÖVP (-4)
14% Greens (+1.5)
11% NEOS (+6)
  2% TS (-4)
  4% Others

No majority for the "Grand" SPÖVP coalition.

http://atv.at/binaries/asset/download_assets/4174979/file

[Tender Branson]

Apparently, current Science and Research Minister Karlheinz Töchterle (ÖVP, ex-Green) is also not yet a done deal for the Faymann II cabinet.

Also, the Kurier has retracted their "leak" that Fritz Kaltenegger will become Minister for Agriculture.

Well, we'll know tomorrow evening at the big press conference.

A fact that is already known: The coalition contract will have about 125 pages.

[Tender Branson]

From what I've read so far, the coalition agreement doesn't actually have an all too bad Social Democratic handwriting:

* pension entry ages by law will remain at 60 for women and 65 for men, but the real pension entry ages (adjusted for early retirement) will be raised by about 2 years in the next 5 years. The ÖVP wanted an immediate rise of the pension entry age for women to 65, which will come in the 2020s, as planned before. Raising the real pension entry ages will keep people employed, which means more tax revenues instead of pension payments.

* more money for housing construction to slow the rise of rental costs

* a 2nd kindergarden year free of charge

* more money for comprehensive all-day care for small children and better quality management in kindergardens, especially for children of immigrant families so that they are fluent in German in the 1st class

* free dental braces for all children up to 18 years, free dental hygiene sessions at dentists for all children up to 18 years (surgeries are already covered).

* comprehensive all-day classes and care for students in every school (this is important for parents who both work and who want their kids to be in school under the guidance of teachers, so that they can pick them up in the evening)

...

The ÖVP on the other hand has their handwriting mostly in economic areas, such as cuts in administrative spending (-> pork), a bonus-system for companies that keep or hire older workers until they reach the retirement ages set by law, they get a bonus.

...

Also, additional taxes will not impact the broad middle-class all too much: taxes on tobacco products and alcohol will be increased, as well as the NoVA tax for new car sales (it's an emmission tax for cars with a lot of horsepower).

And a lot more tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP had a BIG surprise yesterday night:

After accepting the coalition contract, they presented 3 new ministers - 1 of them was the big surprise: Sophie Karmasin will become the new Minister for Families and Youth.

Karmasin is one of the leading pollsters in Austria and is the CEO of Karmasin Motivforschung. She's also a psychologist.

Her father, who died this year, was the founder of the Austrian Gallup Institute in the 1960s and one of the most famous political commentators in the country in the past decades.



Karmasin will be an Independent, appointed for and by the ÖVP.

...

Other smaller surprises:

Andrä Rupprechter (ÖVP) will become the new Agriculture and Environment minister.

The lawyer Wolfgang Brandstetter will become the new Justice Minister (also appointed by the ÖVP, but he's an Independent too).

Here's the new ÖVP team for the next 5 years:



From left to right: Nationalratspräsident Karlheinz Kopf, designierter Justizminister Wolfgang Brandstetter, Klubobmann Reinhold Lopatka, Innenministerin Johanna Mikl-Leitner, designierter Finanzstaatssekretär Jochen Danninger, Vizekanzler und designierter Finanzminister Michael Spindelegger, designierter Außenminister Sebastian Kurz, designierte Familienministerin Sophie Karmasin, ÖVP-Generalsekretär Gernot Blümel, designierter Bundesminister für Wirtschaft, Wissenschaft & Forschung Reinhold Mitterlehner

Andrä Rupprechter is not on the picture.

[Tender Branson]

I should probably note that there have been some last minute changes in 2 ministries yesterday:

The Science and Research Ministry has been merged with the Economy Ministry (for which Reinhold Mitterlehner is resonsible).

Family and Youth (which have been part of the Economy Ministry) have now been upgraded to a Ministry on its own, which will be headed by Sophie Karmasin.

...

Also, here's the coalition contract:

Link (PDF)

[Tender Branson]

Here's the SPÖ summary:

http://spoe.at/sites/default/files/zusammenfassung_regierungsprogramm.pdf

And the ÖVP summary:

http://www.oevp.at/down.load?file=KernprojekteRegierungsprogramm.pdf&so=download

[Tender Branson]

The Vorarlberg SPÖ has voted against the coalition contract yesterday evening with a vote of 46-2.

Also, the Young Socialists are against the contract, because it lacks a wealth tax.

The federal SPÖ is expected to approve the contract in the next hours.

[Franzl]

Maybe the ÖVP should have pursued the FPÖ/Stronach route... Perhaps better now with a comparatively weak coalition than if the FPÖ were to get 30+ and lead the government next time...

[Tender Branson]

Maybe the ÖVP should have pursued the FPÖ/Stronach route... Perhaps better now with a comparatively weak coalition than if the FPÖ were to get 30+ and lead the government next time...

Or ... the economy is improving the next years, there's a "0%-deficit" by 2017, the coalition passes a tax cut and they do better in the 2018 election than thought.