Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

While Chancellor Faymann and Vienna-mayor Häupl (both SPÖ) want to continue like nothing happened in Upper Austria this Sunday, ÖVP-leader Mitterlehner is now talking "tough" all of a sudden, basically threatening to end the coalition with the SPÖ if everything stays the same.

He's calling for "tougher measures" on the asylum crisis (incl. like his Interior Minister) "tougher" border controls and "swifter" deportations. He also calls for a "slimmer" state, more "incentives" for working people and so on ...

I guess this is just the usual talk to prevent the ÖVP from a disaster in the Vienna election next Sunday, when they are heading for less than 10% for the first time.

After the election, the ÖVP will just continue with the soft-on-asylum business as usual (like the SPÖ) until the next federal election.

http://orf.at/stories/2301687/2301681

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How popular is Mitty atm? Would replacing him with the twelve year-old foreign secretary insulate the OVP against the FPO's rise?

[politicus]

Did the FPÖ ever consider running in Southern Germany? How do you think they would do in Bavaria or Baden-Würtemberg in the current situation?

[Tender Branson]

How popular is Mitty atm? Would replacing him with the twelve year-old foreign secretary insulate the OVP against the FPO's rise?

After lifting the ÖVP to new highs, he has fallen back to earth in the past year. He still has much better favorable ratings than Faymann though. And no, Sebastian Kurz would not be a threat to the FPÖ. Maybe for a short time, but the FPÖ can only be stopped by the FPÖ itself (at best by putting them into government).

Did the FPÖ ever consider running in Southern Germany? How do you think they would do in Bavaria or Baden-Würtemberg in the current situation?

That doesn't work that way. You cannot export a Far-Right party from a certain country to another and expect it to do well there too. You need a long standing tradition, core voters, a message that resonates and a well-oiled machine, which the FPÖ has established over the past 70 years. The AfD lacks all of that and that's why it sucks compared with the FPÖ.

[politicus]

How popular is Mitty atm? Would replacing him with the twelve year-old foreign secretary insulate the OVP against the FPO's rise?

After lifting the ÖVP to new highs, he has fallen back to earth in the past year. He still has much better favorable ratings than Faymann though. And no, Sebastian Kurz would not be a threat to the FPÖ. Maybe for a short time, but the FPÖ can only be stopped by the FPÖ itself (at best by putting them into government).

Did the FPÖ ever consider running in Southern Germany? How do you think they would do in Bavaria or Baden-Würtemberg in the current situation?

That doesn't work that way. You cannot export a Far-Right party from a certain country to another and expect it to do well there too. You need a long standing tradition, core voters, a message that resonates and a well-oiled machine, which the FPÖ has established over the past 70 years. The AfD lacks all of that and that's why it sucks compared with the FPÖ.

Hmm, not totally convinced of that. The Swedish SD is basically a copycat operation on DPP, so I am not so sure it isn't doable if we are talking about two culturally closely related areas (which is why I emphasized Southern Germany). Of course there was a basis on which Åkesson & Co. could build the modern version of SD, but with its toxic Neo-Nazi/facist roots that basis was more of a liability than an asset for them. Though, it of course provided a bit of organization.

[DavidB.]

I think Bavaria being a part of Germany would prevent a Bavarian FPÖ from getting as strong as, say, the Upper Austrian FPÖ, even if these areas have otherwise broadly similar historical and demographical characteristics: after all, Bavarians/Germans cannot delude themselves into believing that they were the "first victims" of WWII.

Besides, it was not DPP who instigated SD to become a (bad) copycat: SD decided that for themselves. So that isn't comparable to the hypothetical scenario in which the FPÖ decides to run in Bavaria.

[Tender Branson]

New federal Gallup poll:

33% FPÖ (+13%)
24% SPÖ (-3%)
20% ÖVP (-4%)
13% Greens (+1%)
  6% NEOS (+1%)
  4% Others (-8%)

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Platz-1-FPOe-schon-bei-33-Prozent/206594836

[rob in cal]

   How is the Vienna Gemeinsam campaign going?  I'm thinking the Greens and SPO are irritated at its very existence, as those voters would likely vote for them if it wasn't on the ballot, and it won't win any seats.  Is it trying to appeal to all Vienna voters, or just those of Turkish background?

[Tender Branson]

  How is the Vienna Gemeinsam campaign going?  I'm thinking the Greens and SPO are irritated at its very existence, as those voters would likely vote for them if it wasn't on the ballot, and it won't win any seats.  Is it trying to appeal to all Vienna voters, or just those of Turkish background?

GFW doesn't have a real campaign. They have no money and they are late in the game. It's a wonder they even managed to secure the signatures to be on the ballot. Because they have no money, they also have no campaign billboards in the city - while the other parties have thousands of them. Their only hope for the election is the so-called "mouth propaganda" in the immigrant community.

The media was all like "WATCH OUT: A TURKISH LIST IS RUNNING !", but now nobody seems to care about them anymore. And they are not likely to get more than 0.5% of the vote.

It appeals mostly to voters with a migrant background and most of their top candidates are Turks (like their frontrunner).

Here's a chart of their candidates:

[Tender Branson]

Online pollster "meinungsraum.at" has conducted a study on declared voters and non-voters for the Vienna state election.

The results show that declared non-voters (20% of the sample of 1.500) are disproportionately young, female and medium-educated. And these non-voters skew heavily SPÖ.

Which means if turnout rises next Sunday to above 70%, the SPÖ should benefit from this.

http://meinungsraum.at/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/MR_NichtwaehlerInnenWien_29092015.pdf

[Intell]

But its clearly only cheap way to get additional voters, not real approach and ideas of the party. I am not the fan of FPO: but we must separate political calculations during eletoral campaign from real party views.

I am not convinced. I am hardly a "hungry leftist", as you described other people on this forum: I tend to be supportive of various new-right parties across Europe, such as the Danish People's Party and the Swiss People's Party. I totally agree with many well-formulated concerns about the future of a country and preserving the European/Judeo-Christian/whatever you call the identity of a country, but I cannot agree with or support outright racism and incitement to hatred to people. Criticizing Islam is something different than actively campaigning against people, as the FPÖ did ("Heimatliebe statt Marokkaner-Diebe"), and winks toward a nazi past are especially a no-go for me - the anti-Semitism in the FPÖ is also a big problem for me (even though The Greens, for instance, are obviously even worse for Jews, but I'd never support any Green party whereas I could support new-right parties). An FPÖ representative officially hung out with a Jobbik representative on some far-right conference. That's not a "political calculation during an electoral campaign."

Racism against Muslims and other middle-eastern and sometimes eastern-European immigrants is fine, but Jews, noooooo. Whenever they say something racist against a Jew is fine, but against other immigrants, it's alright.

Firstly, I don't think you're saying what you intended to say. Secondly, how do you derive this conclusion from my post? I even said that I consider the slogan "Heimatliebe statt Marokkaner-Diebe" distasteful and inappropriate. Thirdly, Jews are Middle Eastern too... Fourthly, I'll admit that I care about discrimination against Jews more than about discrimination against other people (which does not mean I don't care about that) - just as the left (and most other minority groups) care more about discrimination against other people than against Jews. Fifthly, discrimination against Eastern Europeans solely stems from "they took our jobs!1!1!!" sentiments, which are by definition stupid.

From what you said, It seems you'd be fine with voting for the FPO, a racist party against Muslims and a partly- xenophobic party, if they're a Jew and aren't specifically racist towards Jews, which means you'd be open to voting for a racist party towards Muslims.

[DavidB.]

It seems you'd be fine with voting for the FPO, a racist party against Muslims and a partly- xenophobic party, if they're a Jew and aren't specifically racist towards Jews, which means you'd be open to voting for a racist party towards Muslims.

Well, if my rebuttal didn't convince you, then so be it. I don't really care if some random Australian seeks to mischaracterize my views

[Tender Branson]

2 new Vienna polls, showing basically the same result, show the race heating up dramatically in the final week:

Gallup/Ö24



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Wien-Wahl-Finish-wird-brutal/206744993

...

Market/Standard



http://derstandard.at/2000023137085/Wien-Wahl-FPOe-und-SPOe-beinahe-gleichauf

...

Also:

According to the Market poll, turnout could be up significantly to between 70-75% (from 68% in 2010).

86% of those polled say that they intend to vote in the state election (men: 89%, women: 83%).

Of course some of them will stay at home in the end, but higher turnout seems more than likely.

[Intell]

It seems you'd be fine with voting for the FPO, a racist party against Muslims and a partly- xenophobic party, if they're a Jew and aren't specifically racist towards Jews, which means you'd be open to voting for a racist party towards Muslims.

Well, if my rebuttal didn't convince you, then so be it. I don't really care if some random Australian seeks to mischaracterize my views

Nah, you did.

I probably analyzed what you wrote wrong.

[Boston Bread]

What type of person actually wants SPO-FPO coalition?

[DavidB.]

What type of person actually wants SPO-FPO coalition?

White working-class people who think such a coalition can be tough on "foreigner issues" while not being too pro-business/right-wing on the economy (as opposed to FPÖ/ÖVP or FPÖ/ÖVP/NEOS). Vienna has a lot of these people.

[Tender Branson]

New "scandal":

Private Austrian TV channels ProSieben, Sat1-Puls4 and RTL-Group are all refusing to broadcast 4 final 30-second FPÖ-ads for the Vienna state election.

The thing is that I saw several SPÖ-ads already during their breaks ...

Only private ATV channel is airing them.

Public broadcaster ORF is not airing any political ads.

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,1217993

[Tender Branson]

The final Heute/Unique Research Vienna poll (n=800) shows:



Hypothetical direct vote for mayor:



By party:



Projected turnout intention by party supporters:



http://www.heute.at/news/oesterreich/wien/art23652,1217712

[Tender Branson]

Like ahead of the Upper Austria election, record absentee/postal ballot requests also in Vienna.

There have already been more requests so far than in 2010, but there's still another week left to request them.

Which could indicate good turnout.

[DavidB.]

New "scandal":

Private Austrian TV channels ProSieben, Sat1-Puls4 and RTL-Group are all refusing to broadcast 4 final 30-second FPÖ-ads for the Vienna state election.

The thing is that I saw several SPÖ-ads already during their breaks ...

If these channels are private then what is the problem?

Also, how does one become mayor? Simply being the leader of the biggest party in a coalition?

The fact that FPÖ voters are most (!) likely to vote, at least according to themselves, might be a sign that they are indeed going to be close to the SPÖ. I could see them reaching 34% by now.

[Tender Branson]

New "scandal":

Private Austrian TV channels ProSieben, Sat1-Puls4 and RTL-Group are all refusing to broadcast 4 final 30-second FPÖ-ads for the Vienna state election.

The thing is that I saw several SPÖ-ads already during their breaks ...

If these channels are private then what is the problem?

Also, how does one become mayor? Simply being the leader of the biggest party in a coalition?

The fact that FPÖ voters are most (!) likely to vote, at least according to themselves, might be a sign that they are indeed going to be close to the SPÖ. I could see them reaching 34% by now.

Of course, since they are private channels they can refuse to air FPÖ-ads.

But it's not "fair and balanced" if they are only airing SPÖ ads instead ...

...

How does one become mayor in Vienna ? If you get elected by a majority of the 100 state MPs.

...

Yeah, I might change my prediction too over the next week.

[DavidB.]

Of course, since they are private channels they can refuse to air FPÖ-ads.

But it's not "fair and balanced" if they are only airing SPÖ ads instead ...

That's true, but that is their own choice. What's more, it gives the FPÖ a new opportunity to whine about the "establishment" being unfair/undemocratic/out of touch/"demonizing", so I think this might even benefit them.

[Tender Branson]

The final OGM Vienna poll for the "Kurier" (n=793):



Mayoral vote and turnout intention:



70% I will definitely vote
17% I will likely vote
  7% I will likely not vote
  6% I won't vote

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/wien-wahl/polarisierung-zwischen-rot-und-blau-spitzt-sich-im-finale-zu/156.416.017

[politicus]

An internal Austrian report states that the large and continuing flow of refugees that over the past several months have arrived in Europe could result in a number of serious risk scenarios.

The report is entitled ‘Sonderberichterstattung und Analyse der derzeitigen Migrationslage’ - 'Special report and analysis of the current migration situation'.

The report concludes, that as a result of the situation in Austria the police may be overburdened and that there is a threat to the maintenance of public order.

In addition, there is the danger that the asylum and supply system can be overstretched, just as there is a risk of inter-religious and inter-ethnic conflicts breaking out among migrants.

'There is a danger that the judicial and legal structures could be put out of force'

The report was really only for internal use, but several Austrian media have gotten hold of it anyway.

First, excerpts has been brought on Austrian TV, and then the full text in Krone Zeitung.

Krone Zetiung subsequently put the report on the net.

http://de.scribd.com/doc/282572361/Sonderberichterstattung-und-Analyse-der-derzeitigen-Migrationslage

The authorities initially denied the existence of the report, due to its politically explosive content.

(cross-posted from the refugee crisis thread)

[DavidB.]

'Sonderberichterstattung und Analysis which derzeitigen Migration Lage'

Google Translate?

Seems like an epic fail that this has been leaked to the media. Reports like this should remain confidential for a reason. Is it Mikl-Leitner who is in charge of this? She will hopefully face serious questions about this.

Also, I cannot think of a better start of the final week of campaigning for the FPÖ.