Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

When will the polling stations close again? When do we have an exit poll?

All polling stations will close at 5pm (which is in 35 minutes).

There will be a 1st projection based on a weekend telephone survey of 2.000 Vienna voters, conducted by SORA for the ORF (our "exit poll").

This projection should be taken with a grain of salt, because it's only a telephone survey and it does not involve any counted precincts yet.

The first actual projection with already counted precincts in it will come at 6pm.

But if the vote is close, then we have to wait until tomorrow afternoon when the 204.000 postal ballots are counted.

[Tender Branson]

Live stream with election coverage starts:

http://www.live-stream.tv/online/fernsehen/deutsch/orf2.html

[Tender Branson]

First projection in 3 minutes.

Btw: vote counting will take about 3 hours.

[Tender Branson]

All polls are closed.

1st Vienna projection by SORA for the ORF:

34.5-37.5% SPÖ
33.0-36.0% FPÖ
10.5-12.5% Greens
  8.0-10.0% ÖVP
    5.0-7.0% NEOS

MoE = +/- 2.5%

[palandio]

This is not yet a projection based on real counts, but only an exit poll. First projections based on real counts will arrive in ca. one hour.

[DavidB.]

It seems Austrian pollsters seem to have done a decent job both in the OÖ and the Viennese election. Maybe they could teach UK and Israeli pollsters a lesson or two.

[Tender Branson]

This is not yet a projection based on real counts, but only an exit poll. First projections based on real counts will arrive in ca. one hour.

Considering this is only a weekend telephone poll (but with a big sample of 2.000), there's still uncertainty. People often do way different things in the election booth than they tell a pollster over the telephone ...

[rob in cal]

   Which parts of Vienna would have the most residents of Serb or Croat heritage? IIRC Strache made some comments reaching out to them as potential allies in the struggle to keep Vienna a Christian city, or something to that effect.

[DavidB.]

The live stream doesn't work so well. Do others encounter the same problem?

[Tender Branson]

The live stream doesn't work so well. Do others encounter the same problem?

I have no problem.

Maybe you have a slow internet connection ?

[Tender Branson]

  Which parts of Vienna would have the most residents of Serb or Croat heritage? IIRC Strache made some comments reaching out to them as potential allies in the struggle to keep Vienna a Christian city, or something to that effect.

Serbs as a percentage of the population in each Austrian town/Vienna district:



Bosnians as a percentage of the population in each Austrian town/Vienna district:



Turks as a percentage of the population in each Austrian town/Vienna district:

[Tender Branson]

First bits of the SORA election weekend survey ("exit poll"):

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Vienna state government is doing (=> SPÖ-Greens) ?

strongly approve
somewhat approve
somewhat disapprove
strongly disapprove
don't know



What best describes your feelings towards political parties ability to solve the asylum crisis ?

confidence
concern
anger
none of these
don't know

[Tender Branson]

Graphic with changes compared with the 2010 election:

[DavidB.]

We'll get a Hochrechnung in two minutes, right?

[Tender Branson]

We'll get a Hochrechnung in two minutes, right?

At 6pm.

[DavidB.]

Oh. Then I'll go to the supermarket

[Tender Branson]

Upper Austria:

The FPÖ-candidate has won todays mayoral run-off in Wels (the 2nd biggest city) with 62% of the vote against the SPÖ candidate.

FPÖ takes the mayoral post for the first time there since WW2, after the SPÖ candidate often got 60-80% there.

[Tender Branson]

Oh. Then I'll go to the supermarket

Be quick !

[Tender Branson]

More "exit poll" data:

"Vienna is a very livable city" (=> agree, by party voters)



FPÖ-voters ...

[Tender Branson]

First projection based on some already counted precincts should come soon ...

[Tender Branson]

1st Projection:

39.5% SPÖ
30.9% FPÖ
11.6% Greens
  9.5% ÖVP
  6.2% NEOS
  1.1% GfW
  1.0% ANDAS
  0.2% WWW

MoE: +/- 1.3%

[DavidB.]

That's very interesting. Seems like FPÖ has been overpolled and SPÖ has been underpolled. Also GfW at 1.1%, wow.

[Tender Branson]

Based on this result, Red-Green is re-elected with 54/100 (44+10) seats.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout projected at 72.6% (+4.8%)

Results as they come in by district:

http://orf.at/wahl/wien15/#ergebnisse/90000

... and by precinct (already filling in):

http://orf.at/wahl/wien15/#globus/sprengel-wahl-2015

[Cranberry]

Obviously I very much like this