Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[njwes]

Thanks guys! And thanks for the website Tender.

[Tender Branson]

The Strache-FPÖ takes 1st place in the new Gallup poll (sample = 400, Jan. 15-16):



Link

[njwes]

Say an election were held tomorrow and this was the result, what do you think the coalition would be? SPÖ-Greens-ÖVP? FPO-ÖVP-NEOS?

[Tender Branson]

Say an election were held tomorrow and this was the result, what do you think the coalition would be? SPÖ-Greens-ÖVP? FPO-ÖVP-NEOS?

Because SPÖVP would have no majority anymore in this poll (44% vs. 51%), I think the most likely coalitions would be:

* SPÖVP+Greens
* SPÖVP+NEOS
* SPÖ+Greens+NEOS

But no FPÖ+ÖVP+NEOS coalition, because NEOS has categorically ruled out a coalition with the FPÖ in it. This makes sense, because basically all of NEOS' current support is coming from former ÖVP and Green voters, who are not too fond of the FPÖ's policies. Besides, since entering the Parliament, NEOS has behaved more like a center-left party, not like a center-right one. This would make SPÖVP+NEOS and SPÖ+Greens+NEOS likely, but SPÖVP+Greens is even more likely, because it already exists in Carinthia.

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the "Standard"

26% FPÖ (+5.5)
23% SPÖ (-4.0)
20% ÖVP (-4.0)
12% Greens (-0.5)
11% NEOS (+6.0)
  2% TS (-4.0)
  2% BZÖ (-1.5)
  4% Others

http://derstandard.at/1389857548888/Nach-Parteistreit-Spindelegger-und-OeVP-im-Umfragetief

[Tender Branson]

In the direct vote for Chancellor, Frank Stronach has reached 0% in the meantime.

Also, ÖVP-leader Spindelegger has reached an epic low of 7% in this poll (a share that would make ÖVP-Chancellors/leaders from previous decades roll over in their graves).

Also, a new high for NEOS-leader Matthias Strolz, while Glawischnig and Strache do well.

[Tender Branson]

The LIF (Liberal Forum) is history as of today.

NEOS has merged with LIF at their convention today:



NEOS-leader Matthias Strolz was elected the new leader of the merged party, Angelika Mlinar (the LIF-leader until today) will very likely be the EP election frontrunner (if she wins their internal primaries, which is seen as a sure thing).

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/1553657/Geeinte-NEOS-oder-das-Ende-des-Liberalen-Forums

The new party is called: "NEOS - Das neue Österreich und Liberales Forum"

[Tender Branson]

The new NEOS has also adopted a new party platform (or better said amended it today).

Some points:

* Full gay marriage rights incl. full adoption rights
* A general smoking ban
* Support for TTIP, but only if the US adopts the high quality standards of the EU with regards to hormones in meat, etc.

[Zanas]

When you say a general smoking ban, are you talking about plain just making tobacco illegal, or a general ban of smoking in public/public places ? I'm confused.

[Tender Branson]

When you say a general smoking ban, are you talking about plain just making tobacco illegal, or a general ban of smoking in public/public places ? I'm confused.

The 2nd one, but their focus is more on restaurants and bars: Currently, big restaurants/bars (over 50m²) need to install a smoking room that is closed-off from the main restaurant part so that no smoke comes into the main room. Smaller restaurants/bars can choose if they are either classified as a non-smoking or smoking establishment. The NEOS want a general smoking ban in all those establishments.

[Tender Branson]

Mayoral and city-council elections will be held in my home state Salzburg on March 9.

The mildly interesting points to follow:

* What will the result be like in Salzburg City ?
* Will the SPÖ be able to gain a few mayors from the ÖVP ?

The SPÖ hopes to win back a few cities like Zell am See (where I live), but this has to do with the sudden death of the popular ÖVP-mayor late last year. The SPÖ is now running a former mayor from the 90s, who has good chances to defeat the ÖVP-candidate. Zell am See has always been SPÖ-ruled, until 2009 when Kaufmann took over and ended the SPÖ-control in the city.

The SPÖ also hopes to win back the bigger cities of Bischofshofen and Hallein.

There's a new poll for Salzburg City out:



http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/spezial/gemeinderatswahl-salzburg/gemeinden-im-ueberblick/stadt-salzburg/sn/artikel/salzburg-wahl-oevp-und-fpoe-muessen-verluste-befuerchten-92233

SPÖ/Greens would remain mostly unchanged, ÖVP/FPÖ/BZÖ (Tazl)/KPÖ would all lose.

NEOS and TS are new, as well as one Independent group (BfS).

[MaxQue]

Why Gröens are running as Bürgerliste?

[Tender Branson]

Why Gröens are running as Bürgerliste?

Because the Salzburg-City Greens named themselves "Bürgerliste" (Citizen's List) at some point in the past and decided to stick with it.

Don't know exactly why they did this (maybe that they are more appealing to voters in the center ?), but everybody knows that they are the Greens ...

[Tender Branson]

I should probably note that Salzburg-City is governed since 1992 by a SPÖ-Green coalition.

...

The poll also shows that the incumbent SPÖ-mayor Heinz Schaden would win the 1st round in the mayoral election.



With those numbers he's basically guaranteed to win the run-off too.

[Tender Branson]

In the 2009 municipal/mayoral elections, the ÖVP won 93 mayoral races, the SPÖ 22, FPÖ/Greens/BZÖ none and Independents won 4 mayoral posts.

[Tender Branson]

Frank Stronach gave his farewell speech as MP today in Parliament, said goodbye, resigned his seat and took a flight back to Canada (or so):

[swl]

I wonder what happened in the head of this guy. I mean, what did he expect to achieve?

[Tender Branson]

I wonder what happened in the head of this guy. I mean, what did he expect to achieve?

He thought he could change the world (or Austria), and fell on his nose ...

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll for national elections (chart on the upper left of the picture):

[Tender Branson]

First time ever that NEOS has overtaken the Greens in a poll !

[Niemeyerite]

Do you think a SPÖ-Greens-Neos coalition would be possible? Or do you think that'd kill Neos?

[Tender Branson]

Do you think a SPÖ-Greens-Neos coalition would be possible? Or do you think that'd kill Neos?

Possible yes, according to the poll.

But the next election is in late 2018, so a lot can change.

[Zanas]

How much of an electoral base could Neos theoretically build ? From what I can gather they mostly appeal to disgruntled ÖVP voters, and a bit of SPÖ and Green ones too. Could they, at least in a poll, reach close to the top 3, maybe to the expense of ÖVP ? Well, in this poll, it's already nearly what's happening...

[Tender Branson]

How much of an electoral base could Neos theoretically build ? From what I can gather they mostly appeal to disgruntled ÖVP voters, and a bit of SPÖ and Green ones too. Could they, at least in a poll, reach close to the top 3, maybe to the expense of ÖVP ? Well, in this poll, it's already nearly what's happening...

15% is already much more than I thought they would ever get.

But just wait until they start making mistakes and their support will fall. The press won't always be tame for NEOS.

[Tender Branson]

The new youngest Foreign Minister of the EU, Sebastian Kurz, has just secured his first successful diplomatic coup:

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The fascist, backwards Muslims in Dubai actually wanted her to marry her rapist to avoid a long jail sentence before Kurz intervened ...