Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[ERvND]

Two questions regarding the EU elections in Austria:

Firstly, why is the ÖVP so strong at EU level? Nationally, it seems to be in decline, consistently in third place, whereas in EU polls, it seems to hang on to first place.

Related to this, why is the FPÖ so weak at EU level? One might think its issues (esp. anti-immigration) might be even more important in a European context. Yet, in this poll, it's even 3% weaker in the EU-poll than nationally.

[Tender Branson]

Two questions regarding the EU elections in Austria:

Firstly, why is the ÖVP so strong at EU level? Nationally, it seems to be in decline, consistently in third place, whereas in EU polls, it seems to hang on to first place.

Related to this, why is the FPÖ so weak at EU level? One might think its issues (esp. anti-immigration) might be even more important in a European context. Yet, in this poll, it's even 3% weaker in the EU-poll than nationally.

ÖVP:

Probably 2 reasons I can think of: The EU elections (contrary to federal elections) are low turnout elections. ÖVP voters tend to be those who always say in polls they are more motivated to vote. This helps them in EU elections, much more than in federal elections where voters of the other parties are turning out in comparable high numbers.

Othmar Karas, their pretty well-known and popular frontrunner.

FPÖ:

The opposite of the ÖVP, when it comes to voter mobilisation: FPÖ voters are more motivated to vote in federal elections than EU elections, even though the EU is one of the FPÖ's main issues. Why ? Because as long as FPÖ-voters cannot vote on the Exit of Austria from the EU, their likelyhood to vote remains low. The FPÖ is only critical of the EU these days, but actually doesn't want to get out of it anymore, which means many people are sitting this out.

[Tender Branson]

Martina Schenk, from the Team Stronach (ex-BZÖ & ex-FPÖ), wants to soften the rather strict gun laws in Austria - mostly because the Interior Ministry recently announced the closure of about 120+ police stations accross the country (1/7 of all Austrian police stations).

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/nachrichten/chronik/3535716/abgeordnete-des-team-stronach-fuer-buergerbewaffnung.story

Actually, the police-reform means that these 120+ stations will be closed but NOT that police officers will be cut. The police officers will be stationed at other posts or in offices of municipal town hall buildings.

...

Currently, you can get & own a handgun in Austria if:

* you are 21 years old and an EU citizen
* have no criminal record
* pass a psychological test
* have a gun ownership license
* have a gun safety training license
* sign a justification paper (for example for self-defense at home)

Exemptions are made for 16-21 year olds, who have a hunting license and a rifle safety training license. They can get a rifle.

Another exemption is for 18-21 year olds, who are in a profession where their security is at risk (see below). They can buy, own and carry a handgun if they meet the above criteria.

To carry a handgun outside your home, you need an additional carrying permit for which you need a sound justification (for example if you are a taxi driver or jeweler to protect yourself or the business.

Also, Austrian males who didn't serve in the army draft and rather went for civil service instead have to sign a paper that they "refuse to be drafted to the army because they don't want to be armed". This means that civil servants are banned from getting a handgun for 15 years after they start their civil service. Exemptions are made for civil servants who want to join the police after their service, registered members of sport shooting clubs and hunters.

[ERvND]

ÖVP:

Probably 2 reasons I can think of: The EU elections (contrary to federal elections) are low turnout elections. ÖVP voters tend to be those who always say in polls they are more motivated to vote. This helps them in EU elections, much more than in federal elections where voters of the other parties are turning out in comparable high numbers.

Othmar Karas, their pretty well-known and popular frontrunner.

FPÖ:

The opposite of the ÖVP, when it comes to voter mobilisation: FPÖ voters are more motivated to vote in federal elections than EU elections, even though the EU is one of the FPÖ's main issues. Why ? Because as long as FPÖ-voters cannot vote on the Exit of Austria from the EU, their likelyhood to vote remains low. The FPÖ is only critical of the EU these days, but actually doesn't want to get out of it anymore, which means many people are sitting this out.

Interesting info, thanks.

[Cranberry]

But you also have to say that FPÖ voters are normally protest-voters. They don't just not vote because they can't vote for an EU-exit, but also because they just don't bother voting. Most of them just vote at federal level, because they think just that affects them. The EU-level simply doesn't bother them.

[Tender Branson]

But you also have to say that FPÖ voters are normally protest-voters. They don't just not vote because they can't vote for an EU-exit, but also because they just don't bother voting. Most of them just vote at federal level, because they think just that affects them. The EU-level simply doesn't bother them.

Hi, welcome to the Forum !

Good to have another Austrian on here ...

(There was another one, Flocke, who was from Graz and briefly posted last year. Plus, there was Peterould, who is originally from an Austrian-British family, lived here for a while but is now a British citizen living in Cambridge. He's not posting either anymore.)

Where are you living, Cranberry ?

[Cranberry]

I'm living in Tyrol. Where are you from?

[Tender Branson]

I'm living in Tyrol. Where are you from?

Tirol ?

Great. My brother lives there (Kitzbühel district).

I'm from Zell am See in Salzburg.

[Tender Branson]

There will be exactly 421.616 eligible voters for the Salzburg municipal elections on March 9, which is an increase of 15.219 voters (+3.7%) compared with the 2009 elections.

The increase comes mostly from EU-immigrants who moved to Salzburg state over the past 5 years.

Voters by district:

117.489 (EU-citizens:   6.792) Flachgau
110.729 (EU-citizens: 11.788) Salzburg City
  69.005 (EU-citizens:   5.530) Pinzgau
  62.052 (EU-citizens:   4.209) Pongau
  45.263 (EU-citizens:   2.650) Tennengau
  17.078 (EU-citizens:      887) Lungau

All Austrian and EU-citizens older than 16 on election day, who have their main residence in a city in Salzburg, are eligible to vote in the city council and mayoral elections.

http://service.salzburg.gv.at/lkorrj/Index?cmd=detail_ind&nachrid=52292

[Tender Branson]

New Upper Austria state election poll by IMAS (takes place in 2015):

42% ÖVP (-5% compared with 2009)
22% SPÖ (-3%)
17% FPÖ (+2%)
11% Greens (+2%)
  7% NEOS (+7%)
  1% Others (-3%)

http://neuwal.com/wahlumfragen/downloads/20140202.krone.ooe.pdf

Upper Austria is the only state with a 6-year term.

[Cranberry]

That's... Actually not bad for the ÖVP... I wouldn't have given them more than, let's say, 35%. After all that's Upper Austria and not Eastern Tyrol or the Waldviertel
Good to see also that the FPÖ isn't doing as well as they do in other polls. I would have given them more, as they did especially well in the Innviertel.
22% for the SPÖ in an heavily industrialised and urbanised area - they will have work to do, if they want to remain a major party.

[Tender Branson]

A new "Profil" poll shows that Austrians are strongly against putting a ban on doctor-assisted suicide into the constitution:

64% opposed
24% support
12% undecided

Also, Austrians in general support doctor-assisted suicide by a 69-19 margin.

But the poll also had another question:

"Do you think people could be pushed into ending their life if doctor-assisted suicide became legal, so that they are not becoming a "liability" for relatives ?"

49% No
42% Yes

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20140208_OTS0001/profil-umfrage-zwei-drittel-der-oesterreicher-gegen-verankerung-von-sterbehilfe-verbot-in-der-verfassung

...

SPÖ and ÖVP put a constitutional ban into their coalition contract for 2013-18, but there are voices within the SPÖ who are strongly opposed.

Currently, the issue is being debated but the ÖVP recently suggested that a referendum could be held on the issue.

[Cranberry]

They did? I didn't know that, thank you. I wouldn't have guessed that the SPÖ would agree to that, but as you say...
I don't think they will be doing it in the next time, not after such a poll.
However, this issue isn't very important, so maybe not much will change now.

[Tender Branson]

They did? I didn't know that, thank you. I wouldn't have guessed that the SPÖ would agree to that, but as you say...
I don't think they will be doing it in the next time, not after such a poll.
However, this issue isn't very important, so maybe not much will change now.

Yepp, you can read it here (page 93):

Work programme of the Austrian Federal Government 2013-2018

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[Tender Branson]

Fashion model Larissa Marolt has been voted the "most annoying and arrogant" prominent person in Austria, according to a new poll by Marketagent:



The "coolest" celebrities in Austria are David Alaba (footballer), followed by Marcel Hirscher (skier):



The "funniest" celebrities are comedian Michael Niavarani and Christoph Waltz:





The most well-known celebrity is Niki Lauda (former Formula 1 world champion):

[Zanas]

I'm sorry Tender but these really have nothing to do with Austrian elections or politics...

[Tender Branson]

I'm sorry Tender but these really have nothing to do with Austrian elections or politics...

Posted that to fill the boring gaps in between ...

There's just nothing really interesting to report right now, politically or election-related.

[Franknburger]

Well, then just stop posting until something interesting happens. I have started to ignore your daily updates, and just go over the accumulated posts every one or two weeks. I'd rather, however, have you focusing on relevant news, so I would be reassured that when you post something it is worth reading (which a lot of your Austria-related info definitely is).

[Tender Branson]

That's... Actually not bad for the ÖVP... I wouldn't have given them more than, let's say, 35%. After all that's Upper Austria and not Eastern Tyrol or the Waldviertel
Good to see also that the FPÖ isn't doing as well as they do in other polls. I would have given them more, as they did especially well in the Innviertel.
22% for the SPÖ in an heavily industrialised and urbanised area - they will have work to do, if they want to remain a major party.

It all depends if Gov. Pühringer (ÖVP) is running again or not. He's still extremely popular in the state and voters rate the ÖVP-Green coalition there favourably.

That's also the reason why the ÖVP got 47% in 2009 and is still considerably polling above the ÖVP-share in federal elections in the state. While many ÖVP-voters in federal elections vote for the FPÖ there, because of discontent, they are sticking with the ÖVP in the state elections.

Also, NEOS is "not yet ready for prime-time" in Upper Austria, which further means more voters staying with the ÖVP.

But, if the popular Governor (now in office for 20 years) decides to retire, then the ÖVP could see a real implosion: Internal polls show that a new ÖVP-leader would achieve only 30-35% of the vote, but if Pühringer remains as Governor, the ÖVP would get 40-45%.

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 federal elections poll:

24% FPÖ (+3.5%)
22% SPÖ (-4.8%)
19% ÖVP (-5.0%)
14% NEOS (+9.0%)
14% Greens (+1.6%)
  7% Others (-4.3%)

Link

41% SPÖVP government
52% FPÖ-NEOS-Greens opposition

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖVP government has now decided to set up a "bad-bank" for the shi**y Hypo Alpe Adria bank that was nationalized in 2009 to avoid a collapse in the banking system. A model for this bad-bank should be ready by the summer. A huge majority of Austrians actually want the bank to go bankrupt and get rid of Jörg Haider's prime project for Carinthia once and for all. Haider once said that the bank would be a boost for the state of Carinthia, then the state took up liabilities for over 20 Bio. €, then the financial crisis came and the bank went bust. Haider's big state project was dead and it was sold to the Bavarians. Then when everything went downhill, the Bavarians wanted to get rid of the bank and Austria's then-Finance Minister Pröll quickly nationalized it. Then the Austrian taxpayers had to put 5 Bio. € into the bank until now and now we have to wind it down fully, with costs of up to 20 Bio. € or 6% of GDP.

Read more here:

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[Tender Branson]

Faymann was speaking during a parliamentary debate forced by opposition lawmakers who have criticized the government for mismanaging the nationalized lender. He said the damage was caused by its former owners, in particular the southern Austrian state of Carinthia, then led by the late Joerg Haider’s Freedom Party.

It's really ironic and cynical that Strache's FPÖ today attacked the government in parliament over the Hypo-disaster, when in fact all was started by Jörg Haider's FPÖ in Carinthia ...

And the FPÖ now even ends up benefitting from all of this in the polls ...

[Cranberry]

Just shows some Austrians are too dumb to receive electoral rights ^^
Of course, ÖVP and SPÖ could have saved lots of money for the tax payers, if such a process would have started earlier.
What I find unfair is that, at least I read it so in the newspapers, Carinthia doesn't have to pay anything, even though they have a fond of money from the Hypo-sell.

[Tender Branson]

Mayoral and city-council elections will be held in my home state Salzburg on March 9.

The mildly interesting points to follow:

* What will the result be like in Salzburg City ?
* Will the SPÖ be able to gain a few mayors from the ÖVP ?

The SPÖ hopes to win back a few cities like Zell am See (where I live), but this has to do with the sudden death of the popular ÖVP-mayor late last year. The SPÖ is now running a former mayor from the 90s, who has good chances to defeat the ÖVP-candidate. Zell am See has always been SPÖ-ruled, until 2009 when Kaufmann took over and ended the SPÖ-control in the city.

The SPÖ also hopes to win back the bigger cities of Bischofshofen and Hallein.

New polls out by GMK in 3 cities and in 2 of them they are a HUGE blow to the SPÖ:

ZELL AM SEE

Direct vote for Mayor:



Vote for city council:



http://www.meinbezirk.at/bramberg-am-wildkogel/politik/zell-am-see-padourek-wird-das-rennen-machen-d844179.html

...

HALLEIN

Direct vote for Mayor:



Vote for city council:



http://www.meinbezirk.at/salzburg-stadt/politik/oevp-hallein-muss-um-absolute-zittern-d845543.html

...

SALZBURG CITY

Direct vote for Mayor:



Vote for city council:



http://www.meinbezirk.at/salzburg-stadt/politik/zerreissprobe-fuer-stadt-oevp-d845547.html

[Tender Branson]

Just shows some Austrians are too dumb to receive electoral rights ^^
Of course, ÖVP and SPÖ could have saved lots of money for the tax payers, if such a process would have started earlier.
What I find unfair is that, at least I read it so in the newspapers, Carinthia doesn't have to pay anything, even though they have a fond of money from the Hypo-sell.

Carinthia indeed has a so called "Future Fund" that was established with money from the Hypo sell and that is worth about 1 Bio. €

So, any sane Austrian taxpayer of course wants that money to be used to pay down the losses that the Hypo has created.

But, this is not so easy: The Austrian government cannot force the Carinthian state to dissolve the "future fund" and "confiscate their money", because according to federalism this money belongs to the state of Carinthia only.

And of course, Carinthia has no intention to pay for their fumbling of the Hypo ...

Meanwhile, the Hypo losses in the bad-bank are now estimated in the 4 Bio. € range (not the 19 Bio. € that was previously mentioned) - mostly because the 19 Bio. € would be the worst case scenario (if all toxic assets would be sold immediately and not in the next years with some remaining value).

But it seems they don't really have much of a clue of what the exact losses will be ...