Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

An early guide to the September state election in Vorarlberg:

Vorarlberg is the westernmost state in Austria and borders Switzerland, Germany and Liechtenstein.

It has ca. 375.000 inhabitants, of which 70% are living in the Rhine-valley (which has a population density of 1000/km²).



(Rhine-valley in Vorarlberg)

The rest of Vorarlberg is made up of mountains and forests that are primarily used for summer and winter tourism, incl. top skiing resorts.

Vorarlberg is also the only Austrian state with an Alemannic German dialect, which is similar to the ones in Switzerland and Baden-Württemberg state in Germany. All other Austrian states have different forms of Bavarian-German dialects.

Vorarlberg is the 3rd-most productive Austrian state (after Vienna and Salzburg) in terms of GDP: The per-capita GDP is ca. 40.000€ (56.000 US-$).

Vorarlberg is very export-oriented and machinery-producing (Vorarlberg exported 8.5 Bio. € in goods last year, or 31.500 US-$ per capita (If Vorarlberg would be a country, it would rank 8th worldwide in per-capita exports).

http://www.chancenland.at/chancenland/documents/2014/chancenland20140307000027.pdf

http://www.chancenland.at/chancenland/documents/2014/chancenland20140331000031.pdf

One major company is Doppelmayr, which sets up cable cars and ski lifts around the globe: Just recently, the world's highest urban cable-car was opened in Bolivia.

http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-essentials/travel-news/bolivia-worlds-highest-cable-car-soars-through-andes-mountains-20140602-39cwl.html

Vorarlberg's population is also younger than the population in the other 8 states and the population growth rate is higher as well.

Vorarlberg has the highest life expectancy in Austria with 84 years for women and 80 years for men.

The state is also among the most innovative regions in the world in terms of patents: Stockholm tops the list, with Vorarlberg coming in 7th - slightly behind Massachusetts.

...

Politically, the Conservatives have always dominated the state and it's labour and trade unions.

Therefore it's not surprising that the 2009 state election was like this:

50.8% ÖVP (right)
25.1% FPÖ (far-right)
10.6% Greens (left)
10.0% SPÖ (left)
  1.7% GSI (far-left)
  1.2% BZÖ (far-right)
  0.5% Others

Vorarlberg voted 77-22 for the Right.

Turnout: 68.4%

...

The current Governor is Markus Wallner (ÖVP) in an absolute-majority ÖVP-government.

Current polls show that the ÖVP could lose 15%, because of the strength of NEOS, Greens and FPÖ.

[EPG]

Irish trades unions demanded income tax cuts in the 1980s during similar circumstances (i.e. high taxes, incomes stagnant for a long time, conditional on social partnership).

[Tender Branson]

New federal elections poll by Unique Research (they had the best EP poll) for "Heute" newspaper:



Sebastian Kurz remains the most popular cabinet member as well.

...

Also, 57% of Austrians want a tax cut "now" (SPÖ-preferred policy), while 32% prefer the ÖVP-policy to save money first/balance the budget first by 2016 and only then a tax cut. Even ÖVP-voters support a tax cut now instead of waiting a few more years (51% vs. 39%):

[Tender Branson]

Good news for the budget today:

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[Tender Branson]

Strache (FPÖ) wants to try once more to become Vienna mayor next year:

Far-right Austrian leader Strache to run for Vienna mayor



(Reuters) - Austrian far-right leader Heinz-Christian Strache wants to become mayor of Vienna in elections next year, he told a Sunday newspaper in an interview laden with anti-Turkish venom.

Strache's eurosceptic and anti-Islam Freedom Party (FPO) is on a roll, leading the latest national polls after posting strong gains in last month's European Parliament elections.

(...)

The ruling coalition of the Social Democrats (SPO) and conservative People's Party (OVP) - which just squeaked out a combined majority in national elections last year - are at each other's throats over how to reduce an oppressive tax burden.

If the debilitating fight over public finances - the SPO wants a new tax on millionaires, the OVP insists on efficiency reforms - drags on, opposition parties look set to benefit.

(...)

SPO bigwig Michael Haeupl, 64, has been mayor since 1994.

"Whoever votes for me is preventing Red-Green and Turkish road signs in Vienna. We also don't need (Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip) Erdogan in Vienna. I can tell him straight away: Erdogan, stay home," Strache was quoted as saying.

He was referring to the Turkish premier's plan to visit Vienna this month to address supporters. Nearly 115,000 Turkish citizens live in Austria, the largest group among non-EU foreigners, according to the state statistics bureau.

Strache said Austria could not ban Erdogan from making a state visit, but called his trip this month "a pure propaganda campaign for his Erdoganistan. I find this alarming. He wants to promote a neo-Ottoman empire and parallel societies in Vienna".

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/08/us-austria-strache-idUSKBN0EJ0CD20140608

...

I strongly doubt that the FPÖ will get more than the 26% next year that they got in 2010.

The question will be more like: How much will the SPÖ lose ?

[Tender Branson]

The Vorarlberg state election has been set today: September 21

http://presse.vorarlberg.at/land/dist/vlk-47012.html

...

Also, a new federal elections poll by Market:

27% FPÖ
22% SPÖ
19% ÖVP
15% Greens
11% NEOS
  2% TS
  1% BZÖ
  3% Others

http://www.market.at/de/market-aktuell/politik-aktuell/593.html

[Tender Branson]

So, the HYPO bad-bank law will be presented today.

A key plan will be to expropriate holders of around 900 million euros ($1.23 billion) worth of Hypo Alpe Adria subordinated debt, guaranteed by the bank's home province of Carinthia.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/11/austria-hypo-idUSL5N0OS0XS20140611

Finance Minister Michael Spindelegger (ÖVP) takes this risky path to expropriate the holders, so that the Austrian taxpayers do not have to shoulder the whole burden of winding down this failed bank (a mess that was created by the Far-Right wingers of Jörg Haider).



Spindelegger originally also wanted to make Carinthia pay for the fail-bank, by raiding Carinthia's so-called "future fund" (a fund in which Carinthia made 500 Mio. € from the sale of HYPO to the Bavarians).

But expropriating Carinthia is not as easy as Spindelegger thought: To get the 500 Mio. € in the fund, it would need a 2/3 majority in the Austrian parliament. The SPÖ has already said that they are opposed to "force" Carinthia to pay the 500 Mio. € in their fund (Carinthia has a SPÖ-governor). The SPÖ favours talks with Carinthia, so that the state will eventually get less money out of the state fiscal transfer system over the next years.

...

Of course the rating agencies don't like the fact that Spindelegger wants to expropriate holders of HYPO debt and threatens lower bond ratings for Austrian banks and states.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

The Vorarlberg state election has been set today: September 21

http://presse.vorarlberg.at/land/dist/vlk-47012.html

...

Also, a new federal elections poll by Market:

27% FPÖ
22% SPÖ
19% ÖVP
15% Greens
11% NEOS
  2% TS
  1% BZÖ
  3% Others

http://www.market.at/de/market-aktuell/politik-aktuell/593.html

what kind of a government would that make? spövp+neos?

[Tender Branson]

The Vorarlberg state election has been set today: September 21

http://presse.vorarlberg.at/land/dist/vlk-47012.html

...

Also, a new federal elections poll by Market:

27% FPÖ
22% SPÖ
19% ÖVP
15% Greens
11% NEOS
  2% TS
  1% BZÖ
  3% Others

http://www.market.at/de/market-aktuell/politik-aktuell/593.html

what kind of a government would that make? spövp+neos?

The next election is in late 2018 ...

But, probably either SPÖVP+Greens, SPÖVP+NEOS or SPÖ+Greens+NEOS.

Or, if the SPÖ gets rid of Faymann and replaces him with someone FPÖ-friendly, FPÖ+SPÖ ...

[EPG]

Austria has learned from other European governments, who have to bear the entire burden of bank debt. Trichet isn't around any more to threaten them with a "bomb".

[Tender Branson]

New IMAS federal election poll for the "Krone":



50-45 majority for SPÖVP.

http://www.krone.at/Politik/SPOe_voran._schwaechelnde_OeVP_hinter_FPOe_auf_Platz_3-IMAS-Umfrage-Story-407862

[Zanas]

Is it me or did they already make the exact same incredibly stupid infography last summer ?

[Tender Branson]

Is it me or did they already make the exact same incredibly stupid infography last summer ?

Yes, but with Stronach instead of Strolz ...

(It's summer ...)

[Yeahsayyeah]

Oh how beautiful ist the Austrian Sea. ;-)

[Tender Branson]

So, with the HYPO law presented and the bad-bank starting in the fall and a bipartisan SPÖVP-commission established that will try to find out ways how to implement tax cuts in 2015 or 2016, we are now officially entering the "summer hole" during which nothing interesting happens here politically ...

[Cranberry]

So, with the HYPO law presented and the bad-bank starting in the fall and a bipartisan SPÖVP-commission established that will try to find out ways how to implement tax cuts in 2015 or 2016, we are now officially entering the "summer hole" during which nothing interesting happens here politically ...

Probaby better so... Because of the world cup, the Krone would have had no time to report of what would go on

[Tender Branson]

Ughhhh, new Profil/Unique Research federal elections poll:

28% FPÖ
25% SPÖ
21% ÖVP
13% Greens
10% NEOS
  1% TS
  2% Others

http://www.profil.at/articles/1424/980/375971/umfrage-fpoe-nummer

Unique Research had the best EP poll a few weeks ago ...

[Tender Branson]

We are now officially entering the "summer hole" during which nothing interesting happens here politically ...

Well, seems I'm wrong and there's something highly controversial coming up in the next days:

The extended arm of the AKP in Austria, the UETD, has invited Turkish PM Erdogan to visit Vienna on Thursday (coincidentally (?) on a Christian holiday here in Austria), where he'll give an election etc. speech to 7.000 Turks in the Albert-Schultz ice-hockey hall, with another 10.000 Turks outside.



Erdogan, who wants to become President later this year, also held a speech last month in Germany in front of thousand Turks.

Austrian Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz has urged Erdogan to encourage Turks who live here to integrate into our society (something that Erdogan is apparently not willing to do and actually favours that Turks do not integrate themselves):

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Meanwhile, Turkish hackers hacked Kurz's website and put this on his website:



http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/austrian-fms-website-hacked-after-warning-erdogan.aspx?pageID=238&nID=67860&NewsCatID=338

...



Also, police prepare for massive counter-protests by Turks in Vienna who are opposed to Erdogan's visit.

The FPÖ is shifting into high gear, demanding that Erdogan stays the f**k out of Vienna and that the price tag for the police deployment should be sent to the extended arm of the AKP in Austria, the UETD (which invited Erdogan).

A Green MP with Turkish background, Efgani Dönmez, has also heavily attacked Erdogan for his planned visit and called the UETD the "prolonged arm of the AKP who organizes the Islamic hinterland for Erdogan here."



(Dönmez has previously called on Turks in Austria who are not willing to integrate to take a one-way ticket to Turkey so that they can remain where they belong to. This created a lot of criticism back then, also within the Greens, while the FPÖ backed Dönmez's comments).

[Tender Branson]

In this case, I'm a "Dönmez-Green Party"-supporter.

Erdogan can go and f**k himself, and yeah, the price-tag for the police operation should in fact be sent to the UETD/"Austrian AKP". Just like I support sending the price-tag for police operations to the FPÖ and left-wingers if they riot in Vienna when there's a Burschenschafter ball coming up.

There's no reason that a PM solely comes to another country (Germany or Austria) to give an election speech in which he encourages his folks not to integrate here.

And there's no reason why the taxpayers should pay for the police operation in case there are anti-Erdogan clashes, clashes that only HE HIMSELF is responsible for.

Better send the price tag to Erdogan's office instead ...

[Cranberry]

I'm with you on this, Tender. That's just nationalistic propaganda what Erdogan is doing there, and to fish votes. I'm sorry, but if he doesn't want the Turks to integrate, he should bring them back to Turkey - easy solution. I don't have anything whatsoever against immigrants, and it know that Austria needs them, and I'm in favour of everyone who wants to come here and live in our country. But that is not a successful integration going on there, and I can't be in favour of this...

[Tender Branson]

Yeah.

Not that I want it, don't get me wrong, but if there are in fact clashes between pro-Erdogan protestors and anti-Erdogan ones on Thursday, then it would be like a penalty-awarded ("aufgelegter Elfmeter") for the FPÖ.

And nobody wants that ...

So, better hope the gatherings in front of the hall are somewhat "normal" and that Erdogan holds a "normal" speech as well (unlike in Germany) and he takes his plane and flies back as soon as possible.

[Tender Branson]

I can't speak for Cranberry, but I think it would be great to have a few more opinions on this thing from non-Austrian posters ...

[Cassius]

I can't speak for Cranberry, but I think it would be great to have a few more opinions on this thing from non-Austrian posters ...

[Tender Branson]

Klingon gagh ?

[Cassius]

Klingon gagh ?

Hah, yes, asking for opinions on this particular topic is bound to open up a whole can of Klingon gagh