Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

Strache (FPÖ-leader) today at the annual FPÖ "New Year's Meeting" with 3000 or so guests:

* I  PEGIDA !

* Maybe Chemtrails are real ... !?

* We need to intern Muslim extremists.

* We need to protect "normal" Muslims from the Muslim extremists.

* Gay adoption rights are bad for the adopted children.

* Werner Faymann is a phased-out model, a loser on all fronts and a caretaker of misery.

* I want to become Mayor of Vienna !

* 2015 will be the year of the FPÖ (and the downfall of Faymann as Chancellor) !



(BTW: There was also a minute of silence for the Paris terror victims ahead of his speech).

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/4641088/Wenn-Strache-schweigt-und-Kreisky-zitiert

[SNJ1985]

Strache (FPÖ-leader) today at the annual FPÖ "New Year's Meeting" with 3000 or so guests:

* I want to become Mayor of Vienna !

If I lived in Vienna, I'd help him achieve that goal.

[Cranberry]

Strache (FPÖ-leader) today at the annual FPÖ "New Year's Meeting" with 3000 or so guests:

* I want to become Mayor of Vienna !

If I lived in Vienna, I'd help him achieve that goal.

Sorry to disappoint you, but he won't become mayor.
No, in all seriousness, he will not win that race, just as he did not in 2010 or will not in 2020.  Luckily, the FPÖ is just not going to get their majority in Austria as of now, and will not for a long time, I shall hope.

[SNJ1985]

I know he has a very small chance of winning; I was just saying that I'd vote for him if I could.

[Tender Branson]

So, what's happening here politically right now ?

Not a lot.

SPÖVP have passed a 300 Mio. € "anti-terror" package that will outfit the police and Interior Ministry people with the newest gadgets (such as sniper rifles, protection gear for SWAT teams, new machine guns) as well as more IT-people and analysts and new helicopters.

On Sunday, municipal elections in Lower Austria will take place (1.5 Mio. people eligible to vote). The ÖVP is of course expected to win big again.

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll:



Also:

Austrians want the controversial Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz International Centre for Interreligious and Intercultural Dialogue (KAICIID) in Vienna closed by a 53-22 margin.

http://www.thelocal.at/20150123/austrian-protesters-support-flogged-blogger

[Tender Branson]

New "Profil" poll by "Unique Research":

28% FPÖ
26% ÖVP
26% SPÖ
12% Greens
  7% NEOS
  1% TS

Chancellor vote:

21% Mitterlehner (ÖVP)
19% Strache (FPÖ)
19% Faymann (SPÖ)
  7% Glawischnig (Greens)
  5% Strolz (NEOS)
  2% Nachbaur (TS)
27% None/Others

http://www.profil.at/articles/1504/980/378932/umfrage-fpoe-platz-spoe-oevp

"Would you attend a demonstration organized by PEGIDA in Austria ?"

21% Yes
69% No
10% Undecided

"Which side do you agree more with ?"

25% PEGIDA, against further Islamisation of Europe
22% the counter-protesters, for an open and multicultural society
44% both sides have their fair share of arguments
  9% Undecided

http://www.profil.at/articles/1504/980/378938/umfrage-mehrheit-pegida-protesten

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna poll (Gallup):



50% Red-Green government
46% FPÖ-ÖVP-NEOS opposition

[Tender Branson]

Municipal elections tomorrow in Lower Austria (in 570 of 573 cities).



The 2010 results:

51.5% ÖVP
33.8% SPÖ
  6.0% FPÖ
  3.4% Greens
  5.3% Indy lists

Turnout: 72%

...

1.52 million people are allowed to vote tomorrow.

The ÖVP will run in all 570 cities.

The SPÖ in 559.

The FPÖ in 341.

The Greens in 126.

NEOS in 43 (for the first time).

Independent lists are running in 206 cities.

...

The fact that small parties such as FPÖ/Greens/NEOS are not running in all cities has to do with the fact that there are many small towns in Lower Austria with only a a handful of inhabitants, which are mostly agricultural and therefore ÖVP strongholds. In these places you won't find a single person that's willing to run as a candidate for a party other than the ÖVP.

http://noe.orf.at/news/stories/2691081

[Cranberry]

To give you an example of how small municipalities in Austria can be, here one municipality that will elect its council and mayor tomorrow:

Großhofen:
86 inhabitants
Council with 13(!) members, plus mayor - more than 15% of the village's population hold elected office!
Wiki

The shocking thing about this is that this municipality is not even the smallest one in Austria, there are loads of others with similar sizes or even fewer inhabitants - Gramais in Tirol has 54 inhabitants, Namlos (that municipality's name literally means "name-less"; that just as a sidenote ) has 85, Hinterhornbach has 90... And all of them have a full-functioning (and paid) council (around 10 council members, in NÖ often more), a mayor, a municipality secretary...

[Boston Bread]

21% still support PEGIDA? Scary.

[Tender Branson]

21% still support PEGIDA? Scary.

Please, how is that surprising ?

The FPÖ has 26-28% here right now. The FPÖ is PEGIDA.

Like FPÖ's Strache said: "I do not mind PEGIDA, but it is not needed here in Austria because we are PEGIDA."

Which means that most FPÖ-voters are naturally also PEGIDA supporters, even though it doesn't even exist here.

(well, there's a small Facebook group in Vienna called PEGIDA Austria with a few hundred "likes")

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

To give you an example of how small municipalities in Austria can be, here one municipality that will elect its council and mayor tomorrow:

Großhofen:
86 inhabitants
Council with 13(!) members, plus mayor - more than 15% of the village's population hold elected office!
Wiki

The shocking thing about this is that this municipality is not even the smallest one in Austria, there are loads of others with similar sizes or even fewer inhabitants - Gramais in Tirol has 54 inhabitants, Namlos (that municipality's name literally means "name-less"; that just as a sidenote ) has 85, Hinterhornbach has 90... And all of them have a full-functioning (and paid) council (around 10 council members, in NÖ often more), a mayor, a municipality secretary...

it's almost like a rural welfare scheme.

[Zanas]

To give you an example of how small municipalities in Austria can be, here one municipality that will elect its council and mayor tomorrow:

Großhofen:
86 inhabitants
Council with 13(!) members, plus mayor - more than 15% of the village's population hold elected office!
Wiki

The shocking thing about this is that this municipality is not even the smallest one in Austria, there are loads of others with similar sizes or even fewer inhabitants - Gramais in Tirol has 54 inhabitants, Namlos (that municipality's name literally means "name-less"; that just as a sidenote ) has 85, Hinterhornbach has 90... And all of them have a full-functioning (and paid) council (around 10 council members, in NÖ often more), a mayor, a municipality secretary...

Ha, that's cute.

[republicanbayer]

If the FPÖ ends up as the strongest party in 2018, but SPÖVP still have a plurality, which government would be most likely?

[Tender Branson]

If the FPÖ ends up as the strongest party in 2018, but SPÖVP still have a plurality, which government would be most likely?

SPÖVP-Greens, I guess. Or ÖVP-SPÖ-Greens.

It's also possible that FPÖ comes out as the strongest party and SPÖVP somehow still retain their own majority, with no further party needed.

[Tender Branson]

Municipal elections tomorrow in Lower Austria (in 570 of 573 cities).

Polls close in 5 minutes. The counting will take ca. 2 hours.

Results link:

http://www.noel.gv.at/externeseiten/wahlen/g20151/erg.htm

To give you an example of how small municipalities in Austria can be, here one municipality that will elect its council and mayor tomorrow:

Großhofen:
86 inhabitants
Council with 13(!) members, plus mayor - more than 15% of the village's population hold elected office!
Wiki

The shocking thing about this is that this municipality is not even the smallest one in Austria, there are loads of others with similar sizes or even fewer inhabitants - Gramais in Tirol has 54 inhabitants, Namlos (that municipality's name literally means "name-less"; that just as a sidenote ) has 85, Hinterhornbach has 90... And all of them have a full-functioning (and paid) council (around 10 council members, in NÖ often more), a mayor, a municipality secretary...

Actually, Großhofen has 91 inhabitants as of today - of which 88 were eligible to vote.

Of the 88, 82 voted today (93% turnout).

Polls were open from 8am to 10am, LOL.

http://noe.orf.at/news/stories/2691270

[Tender Branson]

Polls are now closed.

The ORF actually has a better results page than the Lower Austria government page.

Results map by town (hover over each town so see results).

http://orf.at/wahl/noe-gemeinderat15/#analysis

Turnout by town:

http://orf.at/wahl/noe-gemeinderat15/#analysis/turnout

Results by town:

http://orf.at/wahl/noe-gemeinderat15/#ergebnisse/30000

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If the FPÖ ends up as the strongest party in 2018, but SPÖVP still have a plurality, which government would be most likely?

SPÖVP-Greens, I guess. Or ÖVP-SPÖ-Greens.

It's also possible that FPÖ comes out as the strongest party and SPÖVP somehow still retain their own majority, with no further party needed.

No chance of another FPÖVP government?

[windjammer]

So Austria is in the same situation than  France?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

And the Netherlands, jammer, look at the latest polls

[Insula Dei]

And the Netherlands, jammer, look at the latest polls

The word you're looking for is 'helaas'.

If it's any comfort, Dutch polls this far out mean less than nothing. Their electorate is crazy volatile.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

True. Rather amusingly it seems that almost every party has led in the polls at least once since the last election. Right now we seem to be in a PVV surge, but for some reason D66 just ran up in the last poll. Also, inexplicably Ipsos shows routinely completely different results from the other posters, which is, um, odd.

Anyway Dutch parliaments never seem to last their full term so I like to keep in track of the polls twists and turns.

[Tender Branson]

Final results of the Lower Austria municipal elections yesterday:



ÖVP was pretty stable on a high level as expected, while the SPÖ continued to lose the most.

Municipal elections are basically meaningless when it comes to trends on the state/federal level because most races are really local, but nonetheless: the SPÖ is probably in for a very bad state election year 2015.

Map:

http://orf.at/wahl/noe-gemeinderat15/#analysis

Turnout:

http://orf.at/wahl/noe-gemeinderat15/#analysis/turnout

The 3 cities St. Pölten (the state capital), Krems an der Donau and Waidhofen an der Ybbs did not vote yesterday and are blank on the map.

[Philip Weisler]

There are still differences between the populist parties in these countries. Dutch PVV is still essentially a liberal party, while FN - despite the more moderate stance adopted under Marine Le Pen - has lots of old ultra-rightist cadres and is fiscally populist. FPÖ is somewhere in between in those aspects.

And the Netherlands, jammer, look at the latest polls