Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

All 183 now sworn in ...

[Tender Branson]

Next up:

The Speaker/President of the National Council, Vice-President and 3rd President are elected.

Result: Unanimous vote by all MPs for Prammer (SP), Kopf (VP) and Hofer (FP).

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ National Council club leader Andreas Schieder now speaking.

[Zanas]

How is the seating plan designed ? I can kind of get why FPÖ would be historically sitting in the center, I also get why the Greens would be there too, but I frankly do not get TS and Neos sitting place. I know left-right spectrum has been quite lost for Austria for decades, but still, have you no decency ?

[Tender Branson]

How is the seating plan designed ?

Randomly, I guess ...

Anyway, Frank Stronach giving his maiden speech as an MP right now:

http://megatv.to/orf-2

[Tender Branson]

Matthias Strolz (NEOS-leader) in his maiden speech as Austrian MP:

"I went to a school in Vorarlberg and asked the students: What are your first thoughts about politics ? The answers were standstill, corruption and lies."

Laughter from the ÖVP sector in parliament ...

Don't know if the ÖVP will still laugh after the Vorarlberg state election next year ...

[Tender Branson]

Frank, the MP:



He said: "Problems are like cancer, if you don't deal with them - they get dangerous."

With Barbara Prammer, the Speaker of the National Council who currently struggles with cancer, sitting right behind him ...

[Tender Branson]

The 183 MPs for the next 5 years (about 1/3 of them new) who were sworn in today:

(right-click for big version)

[Tender Branson]

Carinthian Team Stronach member of the state parliament Siegfried Schalli defects to the FPÖ club:

http://derstandard.at/1381370336427/Team-Stronach-Kaernten-verliert-Abgeordneten

[Tender Branson]

Carinthian Team Stronach member of the state parliament Siegfried Schalli defects to the FPÖ club:

http://derstandard.at/1381370336427/Team-Stronach-Kaernten-verliert-Abgeordneten

The reason for this was a sex affair !

Schalli's wife had a secret relationship with Carinthian Team Stronach leader and government member Gerhard Köfer. Schalli meanwhile filed for divorce.

LOL, what a troll team ...

http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/innenpolitik/Sexvorwuerfe-und-Eifersucht-Chaos-im-Kaerntner-Team-Stronach;art385,1228305

[Tender Branson]

If you want to watch the inaugural session of the new Parliament for 2013-18 with the national anthem, swearing in of the (new) members of Parliament and various speeches, debates and votes for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd parliamentary presidents, it's here:

http://tvthek.orf.at/programs/3096617-Nationalrat/episodes/7011713-Nationalratssitzung

[Franzl]

If you want to watch the inaugural session of the new Parliament for 2013-18 with the national anthem, swearing in of the (new) members of Parliament and various speeches, debates and votes for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd parliamentary presidents, it's here:

http://tvthek.orf.at/programs/3096617-Nationalrat/episodes/7011713-Nationalratssitzung

I'm sure the demand for this will be very high....

[Tender Branson]

If you want to watch the inaugural session of the new Parliament for 2013-18 with the national anthem, swearing in of the (new) members of Parliament and various speeches, debates and votes for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd parliamentary presidents, it's here:

http://tvthek.orf.at/programs/3096617-Nationalrat/episodes/7011713-Nationalratssitzung

I'm sure the demand for this will be very high....

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll (with trend chart):



KW43 (= calendar week) means that the survey was done last week.

[Tender Branson]

Important news:

The Austrian press outfits can continue to call Frank Stronach a "confused granddad", the Austrian Press Council has ruled.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/1472961/Medien-duerfen-Stronach-verwirrten-Opa-nennen

[Tender Branson]

The key people negotiating the new SPÖVP government made a cash-check for 2014-18 recently and came to the conclusion that quite a few billions are missing in the next legislative term in revenues as well as higher expenditures. Detailed numbers out tomorrow. But FriedlNews already has an article:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

derStandard.at has a chart showing the old budget path until 2017 and the revised budget path by the EU Commission until 2015, if no consolidation measures are taken (red = old budget path by the government, blue = EU commission estimates - below are the GDP growth estimates by the old government and the new EU commission estimates):



http://derstandard.at/1381371116054/Budget-Einbruch-kam-nicht-aus-heiterem-Himmel

Basically, 1-3 Austrian banks will need at least 5 Bio. € over the next 5 years - or if the government breaks them up and turns them into bad banks (e.g. the sh**tty Hypo bank), the deficit will probably not rise as much, but the government debt: Hypo and the others have ca. 20 Bio. € of bad credits outstanding ...

Other factors that could threaten the zero deficit by 2016 are the fact that economic growth (0.4% this year) will be lower in the next years than projected for the "old" budget path by the "old" SPÖVP government. Which means less revenues and more unemployment spending.

Let's see what the new government plans to tackle the budget gap: The typical Austrian way is to raise a few not so important taxes, so that the middle class is not hurt all too badly, while cutting a few other not so important areas ...

[Tender Branson]

Interesting that the EU Commission already projects a higher deficit this year than the "old" government estimated: 2.5% vs. 2.3%

Which means that the 2013 deficit would be on the same level as the 2012 deficit.

...

I don't see it really: In the first 9 months of the year so far, the government deficit was 1.75 Bio. € LESS than in the same timespan last year.

https://service.bmf.gv.at/budget/akthh/2013/201309FH_gesamtgebarungserfolg.htm

Considering that the states and the cities/towns always run balanced Maastricht-related budgets and the Social Security carriers are running surpluses, I don't see how the deficit will be higher this year than last year. And the additional bank aid for this year is already in the budget.

Which means the deficit this year is likely coming in at ca. 2% of the GDP.

[Tender Branson]

New Karmasin poll (sample = 800) for "Heute" newspaper:

On the left => poll for the next Austrian parliamentary election
On the right => poll for the 2014 European Parliament election in Austria



The 6% "Others" in the EU poll include 2% for the Pirates and 1% each for the KPÖ and Martin Ehrenhauser.

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,953523

[Tender Branson]

Coalition talks between SPÖ and ÖVP have hit a new low yesterday, with some ÖVP people saying that the "ÖVP could suspend the coalition talks" with the SPÖ, if the SPÖ remains unwilling to impose another far-reaching austerity package to achieve a zero-deficit by 2016 (or now 2018).

The cash-check (see 2 posts above) by SPÖVP negotiators and economic experts last week has resulted in a gap of 34 Bio. € for the next 5 legislative years (roughly 6-7 Bio. € each year), because the economy is not growing as fast as was estimated by the "previous" SPÖVP government.

Which means the "new" government would either impose a new austerity package worth the gap over the next 5 years or risk some deficit that they actually don't want (because SPÖVP rather wants a zero-deficit).

The ÖVP favours an austerity package, the SPÖ wants deficit spending.

Let's see where this is heading ... But the coalition talk climate is pretty bad, they say.



Another unlikely result: New elections next year together with the EU elections, and Strache 1st - getting the bankrupcy mass of the failed TS and BZÖ ?

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP could suspend the coalition talks with the SPÖ ...

But the coalition talk climate is pretty bad, they say ...

Well, it seems this was only the talk of the tabloids ...

Yesterday, the negotiators of SPÖ and ÖVP talked deep until the night to find a typical Austrian compromise that will be presented later today:

SPÖVP has agreed that the "budget gap" is not 30-40 Bio. € for the next 5 years, but more like 20-30 Bio. € - and this is what they are basing the new budget frame on.

Which means they will pass a modest austerity package like the one after the 2009 recession, but that's not too hard for the middle-class/small business owners and also some additional spending to get the economy going.

The climate in the coalition talks is "good" again and they hope to have the package and coalition ready by Mid- or End-December.

http://derstandard.at/1381371759015/Regierung-einigt-sich-auf-kleineres-Budgetloch

[Tender Branson]

F+S came out with the numbers today:

The new SPÖVP government will consolidate the budget by 24.2 Bio. € over the next 5 legislative years, after the cash check has shown that this is needed.

Out of this, 18.4 Bio. € is for the regular budget (because of less tax revenues than projected, more unemployment money, pension money), while 5.8 Bio. € is for additional bank help.

The goal to achieve a "zero deficit" by 2016 (or 2018 ?) still remains.

In the next weeks, they will talk about the measures to close the 24.2 Bio. € gap.

http://derstandard.at/1381371930239/Das-Nulldefizit-bleibt-das-Ziel

[Tender Branson]

HC Strache (FPÖ-leader) is single again. He ended the relationship with his girlfriend and fiancée Andrea, who he wanted to marry after the election on Sept. 29

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/1475995/Strache-und-seine-Verlobte-trennen-sich

[Tender Branson]

First measures to close the 24 Bio. € budget gap until 2018 (to achieve the zero-budget-deficit):

* previously planned higher family benefits starting from 2014 on will be scrapped (+1.2 Bio. € annually)

* the renovation of the 150-year old Austrian Parliament (planned for 2017) will be postponed (+0.5 Bio. €)

* the hiring-stop for state employees that's already into place will continue

* the pension system could be reformed in the next 5 years to resemble the Swedish pension system (people who work longer get bonuses, people who file for early retirement get pension cuts). This system would lead to a higher pension entry age, which further means higher revenues in the tax system.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like a bad bank will finally come for the Hypo, to get rid of the toxic liabilities of the Carinthian bank (ca. 18 Bio. €) that was nationalized in 2009.

This will increase the state debt by about 6% of GDP, to about 80%.

http://derstandard.at/1381371991965/Liebscher-Kanzler-und-Vize-fuer-Hypo-Abbaueinheit

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll:

26% SPÖ [-0.8]
23% FPÖ [+2.5]
23% ÖVP [-1.0]
14% Greens [+1.6]
  9% NEOS [+4.0]
  1% TS [-4.7]
  4% Others (BZÖ, KPÖ, Pirates) [-1.6]

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20131116_OTS0002/oesterreich-umfrage-spoe-verliert-fpoe-mit-oevp-gleichauf-auf-platz-2