Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Beezer]

So lemme get this straight...they're trying to poke fun at a far right populist by using a homophobic slur (or did they mean it in the literal sense)?

[SNJ1985]

As I've said, in topics like mass imnmigration and kowtowing to islam, more than 26% side with the FPÖ. But there are other issues/aspects, that explain why FPÖ has just 26% support. From this poll it is obvious that most Austrians do not agree with the increase of the influence of Islam in their country.

Unique Research poll for "Heute":

Do you agree with the phrase "Islam belongs to Austria" ?

  7% Yes, definitely agree
21% Yes, somewhat agree        => 28% agree

27% No, somewhat disagree
42% No, definitely disagree       => 69% disagree

  3% Undecided

http://epaper.heute.at/#/documents/150209_HEU/4

Yep, the idea that Islam ''belongs to Austria'' doesn't make much sense when it has only had a significant presence in the country for a handful of decades. Austria is a historically Christian country, through and through. Sadly, though, it has become largely secular; like most countries in Europe.

[politicus]

As I've said, in topics like mass imnmigration and kowtowing to islam, more than 26% side with the FPÖ. But there are other issues/aspects, that explain why FPÖ has just 26% support. From this poll it is obvious that most Austrians do not agree with the increase of the influence of Islam in their country.

Unique Research poll for "Heute":

Do you agree with the phrase "Islam belongs to Austria" ?

  7% Yes, definitely agree
21% Yes, somewhat agree        => 28% agree

27% No, somewhat disagree
42% No, definitely disagree       => 69% disagree

  3% Undecided

http://epaper.heute.at/#/documents/150209_HEU/4

Yep, the idea that Islam ''belongs to Austria'' doesn't make much sense when it has only had a significant presence in the country for a handful of decades. Austria is a historically Christian country, through and through. Sadly, though, it has become largely secular; like most countries in Europe.

It is a very odd phrase - though it may make more sense in German. I wonder why they asked that question.

[SNJ1985]

As I've said, in topics like mass imnmigration and kowtowing to islam, more than 26% side with the FPÖ. But there are other issues/aspects, that explain why FPÖ has just 26% support. From this poll it is obvious that most Austrians do not agree with the increase of the influence of Islam in their country.

Unique Research poll for "Heute":

Do you agree with the phrase "Islam belongs to Austria" ?

  7% Yes, definitely agree
21% Yes, somewhat agree        => 28% agree

27% No, somewhat disagree
42% No, definitely disagree       => 69% disagree

  3% Undecided

http://epaper.heute.at/#/documents/150209_HEU/4

Yep, the idea that Islam ''belongs to Austria'' doesn't make much sense when it has only had a significant presence in the country for a handful of decades. Austria is a historically Christian country, through and through. Sadly, though, it has become largely secular; like most countries in Europe.

It is a very odd phrase - though it may make more sense in German. I wonder why they asked that question.

I guess they were asking whether or not Austrians felt that Islam was a significant component of their country's national culture and/or identity.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does it mean (roughly) belongs in? I suspect so, and that would be alarming given the poll results.

[Tender Branson]

Does it mean (roughly) belongs in? I suspect so, and that would be alarming given the poll results.

As a non-native English speaker, I thought "belongs to" and "belongs in" is the same thing.

What's the difference ?

[warandwar]

Does it mean (roughly) belongs in? I suspect so, and that would be alarming given the poll results.

As a non-native English speaker, I thought "belongs to" and "belongs in" is the same thing.

What's the difference ?

That cat belongs to me = I own that cat
That cat belongs in my home = that cat should be in my house
That cat belongs to my home/that cat belongs in me = strange things to say
Islam belongs to Austria implies Austria owns Islam, sounds weird.
Islam belongs in Austria just means there is a place in Austria for Muslims

[Cranberry]

The German phrase is "Gehört der Islam zu Österreich?"
Normally, "gehören" means "belong to"; I wonder if "belong with" is better here? It means roughly if the people think that Islam is a part of what is Austria; so not that they believe there should be no Muslims in Austria, but rather that they believe Islam is not a "real" part of Austria.

[politicus]

The German phrase is "Gehört der Islam zu Österreich?"
Normally, "gehören" means "belong to"; I wonder if "belong with" is better here? It means roughly if the people think that Islam is a part of what is Austria; so not that they believe there should be no Muslims in Austria, but rather that they believe Islam is not a "real" part of Austria.

Thanks, that makes sense. It is still not a good polling question. There is too much room for interpretation. Asking if they thought "Islam is alien to Austria" would be better.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It means roughly if the people think that Islam is a part of what is Austria; so not that they believe there should be no Muslims in Austria, but rather that they believe Islam is not a "real" part of Austria.

There's a difference? As soon as we start to define who is and who is not a 'real citizen' then we enter dangerous territory.

[politicus]

It means roughly if the people think that Islam is a part of what is Austria; so not that they believe there should be no Muslims in Austria, but rather that they believe Islam is not a "real" part of Austria.

There's a difference? As soon as we start to define who is and who is not a 'real citizen' then we enter dangerous territory.

If you ask about a general category (ie Islam) you get different numbers than if you name a group of people (ie Muslims).

[palandio]

Context: The reason why the question was phrased exactly this way is probably because former German president Christian Wulff once said: "Der Islam gehört zu Deutschland." This sentence has met with a strong reception, both positive and negative, and is still known to many politically interested people in the German-speaking countries.

Apart from that it still sounds somehow odd, at least to me. I'm as well of the opinion that the sentence "The muslims in Austria are an integral part of Austria" might be more popular.

[Cranberry]

It means roughly if the people think that Islam is a part of what is Austria; so not that they believe there should be no Muslims in Austria, but rather that they believe Islam is not a "real" part of Austria.

There's a difference? As soon as we start to define who is and who is not a 'real citizen' then we enter dangerous territory.

If you ask about a general category (ie Islam) you get different numbers than if you name a group of people (ie Muslims).

Precisely.

But then again, the paper that asked that question is a cheap tabloid, Bild-like; so of course they want the most "anti-Islam" answer possible...

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls today:

Meinungsraum.at/NEWS

27% FPÖ
25% SPÖ
24% ÖVP
12% Greens
  7% NEOS
  1% TS
  4% Others

Gallup/Ö24

26% FPÖ
26% SPÖ
25% ÖVP
13% Greens
  7% NEOS
  3% Others

[Tender Branson]

Interesting:

Austrian voters trust Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Germany more than they trust their own country.

OGM/APA trust index (balance of "I have trust in (...) country" minus "I do not trust them"):



http://www.ogm.at/inhalt/2015/02/innenpolitik-parteien-vertrauensindex/APA-OGM-Vertrauensindex-EU-L%C3%A4nder-Februar-2015.pdf

Sweden is the most popular country among Austrians (it has a 89-8 rating), followed by Denmark (88-8).

On the other side, Greece has a 8-87 rating and Romania 7-82.

...

Over the past 3 years Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and Poland had the biggest improvements in the eyes of Austrian voters. Spain jumped a net 22 points.

Luxemburg, Hungary and France had their images drop the most: Luxemburg by 16 points.

[Tender Branson]

Carinthia municipal elections on March 1 and there are 2 polls out for Klagenfurt (the capital and largest city) and Villach (the 2nd largest city).

And it looks like the Klagenfurt mayor of the FPÖ (formerly BZÖ) might be kicked out of office in 2 weeks. Maybe he finishes 1st or 2nd in the first round, but will likely lose the runoff against the SPÖ candidate (the poll has the runoff at only 36-32 SPÖ, but I think the undecideds will break heavily for the SPÖ candidate).

In Villach, the SPÖ mayor is stepping down and the SPÖ-successor is heading for a big landslide victory.

...

KLAGENFURT (city council + mayoral poll results)

(right-click for big version)



...

VILLACH (city council + mayoral poll results)

(right-click for big version)

[Tender Branson]

New day, new Klagenfurt (Carinthia) poll:

IMAS/Kronen Zeitung

City council vote:



Mayoral vote:



Job Approval rating of FPÖ-mayor Christian Scheider:

52% approve
45% disapprove



...

With these numbers, Scheider might actually be re-elected ...

[SNJ1985]

An approval rating above 50% is quite good for an FPÖ member, isn't it?

[Tender Branson]

An approval rating above 50% is quite good for an FPÖ member, isn't it?

Yes.

Depending on the poll you use from above, the FPÖ will get somewhere between 21-34% in Klagenfurt in 2 weeks.

Which means that some voters from SPÖ, ÖVP etc. also approve of his job as mayor if he has a 52% job approval rating.

Usually, Strache doesn't even break 35% among all Austrians.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting stuff:

In the Lower Austrian municipal elections last month, the SPÖ in the city of Wiener Neustadt lost their majority for the first time since WW2.

Apparently, the SPÖ-hatred was so big that ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens and 2 Indy lists formed a "working agreement" together and the SPÖ for the first time has to go into opposition.

The SPÖ there once got 70-80% most of the time.

Oh, how the mighty have fallen ...

http://derstandard.at/2000011784254/Aufregung-um-VP-Deal-in-Wiener-Neustadt-mit-Gruenen-und

[Tender Branson]

Austria's population increases to 8.58 million

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...

PDF with detailed data:

Link

...

Map:



Red = population growth
Blue = population loss

...

Also interesting:

The number of Austrian citizens decreased by 4.300, while the number of foreigners increased by 76.300 - for a total gain of 72.000 people.

This is the biggest population growth in ca. 20 years.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting that the district of Braunau had one of the highest growth rates last year.

It is not really urban or suburban (like all the other high-growth districts).

But it's not that far away from the cities of Salzburg and Wels and people might opt to live in Braunau because the rents there are cheaper than in the cities.

Or the foreigners coming in just want to troll the Hitler-county ...

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ folds on wealth taxes:

http://derstandard.at/2000011918368/Steuerreform-Haeupl-fuer-Verzicht-auf-Substanzsteuern

Looks like the upcoming tax reform/income tax cut deal out next month will be without any wealth taxes or further high income levies (which the SPÖ pushed and the ÖVP categorically ruled out).

[Tender Branson]

Communists (KPÖ) and Pirates will run under a joint list for the Vienna state elections (which are held either in June or in the fall).

They already did so last year in the EP elections, when it was called "Europa Anders" (A different Europe).

Now it is called "Wien Anders" (A different Vienna).



They got 4% in Vienna at the EP elections, but the threshold for the state elections will be 5%.

Will be pretty hard to get in.

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls today.

Unique Research for "Profil" magazine:

26% SPÖ
26% ÖVP
26% FPÖ
12% Greens
  8% NEOS
  1% TS
  1% Others

IMAS for the "Kronen Zeitung"

27% SPÖ
26% ÖVP
25% FPÖ
14% Greens
  5% NEOS
  1% TS
  2% Others