Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

1st poll for the Vorarlberg state election in September (Berndt/VN):



http://www.vorarlbergernachrichten.at/spezial/2014/05/09/historischer-tiefstand-oevp-laut-vn-umfrage-nur-noch-bei-38-prozent.vn

The poll was conducted from Mid-March to Mid-April, so Team Stronach is still included. Team Stronach meanwhile announced that they are not running in this election.

As expected, the ÖVP will lose it's absolute majority - mostly because of NEOS.

[Cranberry]

So we could have our first black-pink government. Or is there still Proporz in Vorarlberg?

[Tender Branson]

So we could have our first black-pink government. Or is there still Proporz in Vorarlberg?

Nope, V+T+S are all Proporz-free ...

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So how will Consh**ta Wurst's ESC victory affect Austrian politics? Will Faymann try to grow a beard? Will Eva Glawischnig? Will there be calls for Wurst to run to replace Fischer in 2016?

[njwes]

So we could have our first black-pink government.

Does OVP prefer NEOS to FPO?

Also, what's the polling on who's voting NEOS? People who usually vote OVP, FPO, those who generally don't vote?

[Cranberry]

So we could have our first black-pink government.

Does OVP prefer NEOS to FPO?

Also, what's the polling on who's voting NEOS? People who usually vote OVP, FPO, those who generally don't vote?

Oh yes! The FPÖ isn't a right-wing party similar to Republicans, it's a far right populist, xenophobic, anti-EU party. NEOS are actually a younger, more socially liberal, more pro-market, less catholic variant of the ÖVP.

The typical NEOS voter is a young, educated urban person, is an entrepreneur, or a more liberal (in European sense of the term) student. So actually, it's relatively similar to the Green and ÖVP urban voter base. That's why those two parties in particular don't like the NEOS, but once they're established, most likely the ÖVP will choose the policy-similar NEOS over every other party.

The FPÖ voter is an uneducated, young, unsatisfied male. Their parents were the typical SPÖ voters, but they themselves are unsatisfied with the current political and economical situation, and the FPÖ uses this anger of these people to gain votes.

So to sum up, the NEOS voter is about the opposite of the FPÖ voter. The NEOS voter is most similar to a Green and an urban/upper class ÖVP voter (rural ÖVP-voters are another issue); while the FPÖ voter is most similar to the SPÖ voter.

So we could have our first black-pink government. Or is there still Proporz in Vorarlberg?

Nope, V+T+S are all Proporz-free ...

Proves that Western Austrians are smarter than Easterners

[Tender Branson]

So how will Consh**ta Wurst's ESC victory affect Austrian politics? Will Faymann try to grow a beard? Will Eva Glawischnig? Will there be calls for Wurst to run to replace Fischer in 2016?

Everything's possible now ...

PS: Faymann with a thick beard would be great.

So we could have our first black-pink government.

Does OVP prefer NEOS to FPO?

Also, what's the polling on who's voting NEOS? People who usually vote OVP, FPO, those who generally don't vote?

After the last Vorarlberg state election in 2009, the ÖVP ruled out a coalition with the FPÖ - because in an interview before the election, the FPÖ-leader referred to the director of the Jewish museum in the city of Hohenems as an "exile-Jew from America".

Didn't matter anyway, because the ÖVP got 50%+ in this election, which meant they didn't need the FPÖ as coalition partner. (The FPÖ got 25% too, a shockingly high result after this comment).

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I think the ÖVP would rather enter a coalition with NEOS this time - because NEOS is virtually the 21st century-ÖVP. Or a coalition with the SPÖ and/or Greens (if they are strong enough) - or a combination of these parties.

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Who are the people voting NEOS ? Mostly former ÖVP, Green and non-voters, according to the SORA election day analysis from the federal election last year. I don't think FPÖ voters are going to NEOS, because they are so pro-Europe.

[Tender Branson]

A new English-speaking newspaper has started 2 days ago in Austria !



http://www.thelocal.at

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So, if you want to be up to date on Austrian political and other news, be sure to check this site on a daily basis (just like this thread) ...

[Tender Branson]

Vorarlberg - new federal elections poll:

[EPG]

Wow, that's a really strange set of percentages to me. I always thought of the Austrian party system as very class-based - so how do both the Greens and FPOE perform better than SPOE in Vorarlberg (let alone the NEOS figures)? Thanks.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They've always been weak in Vorarlberg; even during the Kreisky era they didn't poll much more than a third of the vote there.

[Tender Branson]

Wow, that's a really strange set of percentages to me. I always thought of the Austrian party system as very class-based - so how do both the Greens and FPOE perform better than SPOE in Vorarlberg (let alone the NEOS figures)? Thanks.

That's easy to explain: Vorarlberg has a high amount of foreigners (the 2nd highest of all states, except Vienna). This helps both the FPÖ and the Greens of course.

Another important factor is that the labour unions in Vorarlberg have always been dominated by the conservative ÖVP-aligned ones, not the Socialist ones like in other states (except Tyrol).

NEOS is higher than elsewhere, because NEOS-leader Matthias Strolz is from there and Vorarlberg is generally more conservative and "Swiss-oriented", therefore business-oriented.

Vorarlberg is also more urban than other states, which helps NEOS and Greens.

[Cranberry]

The weakness of the SPÖ derives also from its bad image in the western states. In Vorarlberg, and also in Tirol, the other western state; the SPÖ is perceived as the party of Vienna, of Kreisky, Zilk and Häupl, and not one of this gentlemen is particularly liked here in the west. The ÖVP however could always perceive itself as a true "country's party" that doesn't just do what Vienna wants (they did of course, but were good at hiding it). 

[Tender Branson]

The result for the "ArbeiterKammer" (=WorkersChamber) of LowerA. is: TurnOut 39.6 (-8.0); SPÖ 59.1 (-1.4), ÖVP 23.1 (-0.4), FPÖ 9.3 (+0.8], Greens 3.1 (+1.0), other (nonLeft?) Greens 2.3 (+0.5), Turks1 1.1 (new), (diss.?) KPÖ 0.9 (new), Turks2 0.7 (-0.8], KPÖ 0.4 (-0.). So rather good news for Spindelegger and Mikl-Leitner, whose home this is.

Well, here's an APA graphic with all results:



In fact the FSG won the election by adding 1.4% Austria-wide, while the ÖAAB/FCG lost ground.

[Tender Branson]

Support for Gay Marriage has risen to a new high here, according to a Market poll for the ORF:

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73% now support gay marriage.

50% "strongly approve", while another 23% "somewhat approve".

Poll respondents under the age of 29 are even more tolerant than other age groups on this issue.

http://www.tt.com/panorama/8418974-91/fast-70-prozent-der-%C3%B6sterreicher-vom-sinn-der-ehe-%C3%BCberzeugt.csp

In a November 2013 poll (also by Market for the "Standard" newspaper), just 61% were in favor of gay marriage.

In this poll, 40% "strongly approved", while 21% "somewhat approved".

http://derstandard.at/1381370702708/Mehrheit-will-Ehe-und-Adoption-fuer-Homosexuelle

[Tender Branson]

The BZÖ, the party founded by Jörg Haider, likely calls it quits over the summer:

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[Tender Branson]

First federal election poll after the EU elections (Gallup for Ö24):



The FPÖ does much better in federal elections than in the EP one, while the opposite is true for the ÖVP.

NEOS loses 3% compared with the last poll and is now clearly behind the Greens again.

BZÖ, Team Stronach and "others" play no role anymore.

[windjammer]

First federal election poll after the EU elections (Gallup for Ö24):



The FPÖ does much better in federal elections than in the EP one, while the opposite is true for the ÖVP.

NEOS loses 3% compared with the last poll and is now clearly behind the Greens again.

BZÖ, Team Stronach and "others" play no role anymore.

FPO is really a cancer

[Tender Branson]

First federal election poll after the EU elections (Gallup for Ö24):



The FPÖ does much better in federal elections than in the EP one, while the opposite is true for the ÖVP.

NEOS loses 3% compared with the last poll and is now clearly behind the Greens again.

BZÖ, Team Stronach and "others" play no role anymore.

FPO is really a cancer

...

True.

And the bad thing is that the next 4 state elections (September: Vorarlberg, next year: Vienna, Styria, Upper Austria) will all have massive FPÖ showings.

The FPÖ defends 26% in Vienna (2010), 25% in Vorarlberg (2009) and 15% in Upper Austria (2009).

In Styria, they could even get 30% next year ... (but this is more the fault of SPÖVP there, than FPÖ's policies).

[Cassius]

Why is it that the FPO seems to (well, it does, according to the results of the EP election) poll better in national polls than in polls for the European Parliament? I'm curious because the reverse seems to hold true for right-wing populist parties in most other countries. Though you did post a poll showing something like 77 percent wishing to remain part of the EU, so that could be a reason I guess?

[Tender Branson]

Why is it that the FPO seems to (well, it does, according to the results of the EP election) poll better in national polls than in polls for the European Parliament? I'm curious because the reverse seems to hold true for right-wing populist parties in most other countries. Though you did post a poll showing something like 77 percent wishing to remain part of the EU, so that could be a reason I guess?

2 main reasons (mobilisation & domestic policies):

* mobilisation: FPÖ-voters are more likely to turn out in federal elections with 75% turnout because they want to show their anger against the SPÖVP government and their policies. In EP elections, many FPÖ voters stay home - especially the younger ones. That's why the FPÖ won young voters in the federal election last year, but not in the EP election - where the Greens won them.

* domestic: The failed HYPO bank will be winded down in a bad bank starting after the summer. Originally, this problem bank was propped up by FPÖ's Jörg Haider when he was Gov. of Carinthia, then the bank went bust during and after the financial crisis. FPÖ-voters don't care about this and - instead of abandoning the FPÖ in droves for this mess - they are sticking with them and even strenghtening them. Instead, SPÖ and ÖVP get all them blame for solving a Jörg Haider/FPÖ/BZÖ-created problem - by winding down the bank that will cost 20 Bio. € and drive up the debt to 80% of GDP this year.

[Tender Branson]

So, what now after the EU elections are over ?

There are increasing calls in both the Social Democratic Trade & Labour Unions and the ÖVP-aligned Trade & Labour Unions for a income tax cut in 2015.

The SPÖ and Faymann are in favour of this 2015-proposal, including lowering the tax on the lowest incomes from 36.5% to 25%. One component of the SPÖ's plan on how to finance this is a small tax on millionaires with a capital of more than 1 Mio. € (1.4 Mio. US-$).

The ÖVP (party) on the other hand and Finance Minister Spindelegger prefers to balance the budget first by 2016 and only then start a tax cut for workers. The ÖVP/Spindi argue that "currently there's no money to finance a tax cut for workers" because the HYPO bank needs to be winded down in the next few years.

Which means the ÖVP/Spindi favours the tax cut in 2016 at best and not earlier (which puts Spindelegger under pressure, because his ÖVP-aligned Trade & Labour Unions want them already in 2015).

The Finance Ministry is already working on the tax cut though and leaked some figures to the "Kronen Zeitung" newspaper today:

http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/Krone_hat_erste_Details_zur_neuen_Steuerreform-Interne_Papiere-Story-406484

The plans would cut taxes for most workers by ca. 5-6% - which would mean ca. 80-150€ more in the pockets per month for each worker.

The price tag is 4 Bio. € (of course the co-financing will be hotly debated by SPÖVP in the next years).

At least the millionaire-tax, favoured by the SPÖ, is highly popular with Austrians:

A new Profil newspaper poll shows that ca. 7/10 Austrians favor such a tax, with only 2/10 opposed.

http://www.profil.at/articles/1422/980/375646/umfrage-klare-mehrheit-vermoegenssteuern

Of course the ÖVP is strongly opposed to this idea, pointing to France and arguing that introduction of this tax would lead companies to think twice about staying in/moving to Austria.

...

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[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Your country is strange. Unions calling for a income tax decrease???  Unions aligned with the major centre-right party??? The major centre-right party being the opposition to an income tax decrease??? I don't even...

[Tender Branson]

Your country is strange. Unions calling for a income tax decrease???  Unions aligned with the major centre-right party??? The major centre-right party being the opposition to an income tax decrease??? I don't even...

This has a long-standing tradition here: Socialist and Christian Socialist/Democratic (and more recently FPÖ & Green) employee representations who work closely together with the governing parties to ensure a dynamic but also social environment in the labour market.

This is called the Austrian "Social Partnership".

You can read more about it here:

http://media.arbeiterkammer.at/ooe/Social_partnership_in_Austria_-_English_presentation_2013.pdf

And there's an English video of the history of these unions:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZVXPb8yzA4

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That's one of the reasons why emloyee unions are in favour of tax cuts - because the unions are actually elected by the employees and the unions increasingly get the feedback from their members that a tax cut is needed now more than ever.

And yes, one fraction is the ÖAAB/FCG - the ÖVP-aligned part of the unionists - with the Tyrolian part now attacking Spindelegger for pushing back the tax cut to 2016. It should be noted that the conservative Tyrolian employee-representation got more than 60% in the elections this year (see graphic on the previous page), so it has some weight when they attack Spindelegger.

...

And: The ÖVP/Spindelegger is not "in the opposition to an income tax decrease" like you said, they just want a balanced budget first and then tax cuts for the employees ...

[Tender Branson]

So, what now after the EU elections are over ?

There are increasing calls in both the Social Democratic Trade & Labour Unions and the ÖVP-aligned Trade & Labour Unions for a income tax cut in 2015.

The Labour Unions are now increasing the pressure on Finance Minister Spindelegger (ÖVP) to bring the tax reform/cuts under way by next year already and co-finance it with a tax on the wealthy:



The poster reads:

"Enough with the austerity/saving ! Feeding banks, cuts in education ? No, thanks Mr. Finance Minister, now we need fresh money for education and jobs. Wealth tax now !"

http://derstandard.at/2000001709799/Faymann-kuendigt-groesste-Kampagne-fuer-Steuerreform-an

...

Meanwhile, even the Governor of Vorarlberg - Markus Wallner (ÖVP) - is calling for a tax cut as soon as possible and backs the conservative Vbg. and Tyrol unions on this matter.

Wallner has a state election ahead of him in September, where the ÖVP could lose more than 15%.

http://vorarlberg.orf.at/news/stories/2650386