Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[EPG]

A possible self-strengthening cycle:
overseas voters feel insecure and believe they suffer from anti-Turkish sentiment; Erdogan argues with European politicians to appeal to nationalist Turks who still vote even while in another country; the majority communities in those countries criticise Erdogan (not just about integration but also his Putinista policies); etcetera.

It's hard to see how he loses from this, except that Germany and Austria are obviously less friendly to him for doing this, but as long as he has the USA, he doesn't need Europe. As for the Turks in Austria, they're voters. Beyond that he doesn't care.

[Tender Branson]

Good debate yesterday evening on the ORF's ZIB2 between Green-MP Efgani Dönmez (anti-Erdogan) and UETD-President Abdurrahman Karayazili (pro-Erdogan):



http://tvthek.orf.at/program/ZIB-2/1211/ZIB-2/8062949/Studiogaeste-Abdurrahman-Karayazili-und-Efgani-Doenmez/8062953

[swl]

Are these Turks allowed to vote in Austria? Who are we talking about? Turks citizens living in Austria, Austrian-Turks with both citizenships or Austrian citizens with Turkish background?

[Tender Branson]

Are these Turks allowed to vote in Austria? Who are we talking about? Turks citizens living in Austria, Austrian-Turks with both citizenships or Austrian citizens with Turkish background?

The Presidential Election in Turkey later this year will be the first in which Turkish citizens living abroad will be eligible to vote.

Like you said, there are 3 groups of Turkish people in Austria, out of which Turkish citizens can vote in the Turkish Presidential election and people which have both Austrian and Turkish citizenship.

Austrians of Turkish origin that only have Austrian citizenship are of course not allowed to vote.

In numbers, this means roughly 120.000 Turks with only Turkish citizenship and another 80.000 which have double-citizenships. Basically 200.000 alltogether (a little bit less than that, because only 18-year olds or older are able to vote).

[Tender Branson]

Opposition to the Erdogan-campaign event today in Vienna is very high, according to a new OGM poll for the "Kurier" newspaper (sample = 800):

70% are opposed to Erdogan giving a campaign speech in Vienna today
24% are OK with it

Men: 73% against
Women: 66% against
50 years and older: 76% against

FPÖ-voters: 88% against, 7% for
Green-voters: 69% against

http://kurier.at/politik/ausland/erdogan-ogm-kurier-umfrage-breite-mehrheit-gegen-besuch-des-tuerkischen-premiers-in-wien/70.987.550

Meanwhile a new Gallup poll for Ö24 shows the FPÖ gaining ground, while NEOS drops to a new low for the year 2014 (the other 3 parties are stable):



"other parties" have 4% support.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/FPOe-zieht-bei-Nationalratswahl-davon/147625683

[Tender Branson]

I think that if today gets ugly (clashes between pro- and anti-Erdogan folks in Vienna), then the FPÖ could break 30% soon Austria-wide ...

[windjammer]

Seriously,
Why not simply making a coalition with FPO?

I mean, every Austrian would see how they are terrible, so they would lose big. (see Wilders)

[Tender Branson]

Seriously,
Why not simply making a coalition with FPO?

I mean, every Austrian would see how they are terrible, so they would lose big. (see Wilders)

No thanks, we are still dealing with all the corruption/failures of the ÖVP/FPÖ/BZÖ-government between 2000-2007 ...

[Cranberry]

Seriously,
Why not simply making a coalition with FPO?

I mean, every Austrian would see how they are terrible, so they would lose big. (see Wilders)

Would you want Le Pen in the government?
And as Tender said - 2000-2007 was horrible, and the FPÖ is back at 20%+, just because they are very good on blaming others (SPÖ-ÖVP) for the things they did (HYPO).

[Zanas]

A bit late on this one, but on the whole "send the police operations' pricetag to X or Y", guys, seriously... I get that you're upset, but you know that is not how the public service of peacekeeping actually works, and that it shouldn't be how it works as a matter of fact.

[EPG]

In fact, there are several countries where the police are paid to keep the peace at special events like sports matches, though I don't know if Austria is one.

[Tender Branson]

A bit late on this one, but on the whole "send the police operations' pricetag to X or Y", guys, seriously... I get that you're upset, but you know that is not how the public service of peacekeeping actually works, and that it shouldn't be how it works as a matter of fact.

If it were an official state visit, then yeah.

But people are legitimately demanding that the police bill is sent to Erdogan's office or the UETD/AKP, because this is only a personal campaign event for Erdogan and he's bringing his controversial policies to other countries, where they create problems that would otherwise not exist.

In fact, there are several countries where the police are paid to keep the peace at special events like sports matches, though I don't know if Austria is one.

Don't know about that. I think police gets paid from taxpayer money for all events they need to cover and protect.

What do you mean exactly ?

The question is more if Austrians should pay for protection of a non-state visit event by a foreign PM who's also importing his self-created problems.

[Tender Branson]

First poll for the 2015 Vienna state election by Gallup for Ö24 (sample = 500, June 16-18):

36% SPÖ (-8% compared with 2010 election)
25% FPÖ (-1)
14% Greens (+1)
12% ÖVP (-2)
  9% NEOS (+9)
  4% Others (+1)

The current city government is Red-Green, which would barely hold its majority (50-46).

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/SPOe-faellt-in-Wien-auf-36-Prozent-zurueck/147713435

[EPG]

Here is an article about fees for policing large events in Ireland:

Actually, I can't post the link. Google "Gardaí raised €5m through policing of events since start of 2012".

As I said, I don't know if this applies in Austria, too.

[Tender Branson]

Here is an article about fees for policing large events in Ireland:

Actually, I can't post the link. Google "Gardaí raised €5m through policing of events since start of 2012".

As I said, I don't know if this applies in Austria, too.

Ah, ok.

I'm quite sure that the police here does no fundraising like in Ireland.

(I don't think they would get much anyway, with all the speeding ticket fees they already get from people here ... )

[Tender Branson]

Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz has demanded a meeting with PM Erdogan, before he went back to Turkey and reprimanded him by telling him what he thinks about his "campaign event" here.

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Diplomats described the talk between the 2 as "very emotional".

http://derstandard.at/2000002172120/Aussenminister-Kurz-traf-tuerkischen-Premier-Erdogan

...

Never thought I would ever see an Austrian politician with a spine ...

[Tender Branson]

New federal OGM poll for the "Kurier":



http://kurier.at/politik/inland/faymanns-kanzlerbonus-ist-weg-spindelegger-nur-auf-platz-3/71.382.948

[Tender Branson]

New IFES poll for the Vienna state election next year:



This poll was done for the SPÖ.

http://www.krone.at/Nachrichten/Scharmuetzel_ueber_Umfragen_SPOe_kontert_mit_Studie-Schlacht_um_Wien-Story-409107

(The guy in the picture is the long-time Vienna mayor Michael Häupl).

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow, the next controversial figure is coming to Vienna: Vladimir Putin.

But contrary to Erdogan, who came only for a campaign event, Putin will come for an official state visit.

Nonetheless, the police will have to come out in force again to protect him and the planned massive counter protests ...

[Zanas]

Tomorrow, the next controversial figure is coming to Vienna: Vladimir Putin.

But contrary to Erdogan, who came only for a campaign event, Putin will come for an official state visit.

Nonetheless, the police will have to come out in force again to protect him and the planned massive counter protests ...

Which is exactly, well, their job...

And to conclude the thing about Erdogan earlier : if Austria was upset about his visit, well they shouldn't have let him enter the country at all. As simple as that.

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow, the next controversial figure is coming to Vienna: Vladimir Putin.

But contrary to Erdogan, who came only for a campaign event, Putin will come for an official state visit.

Nonetheless, the police will have to come out in force again to protect him and the planned massive counter protests ...

Which is exactly, well, their job...

And to conclude the thing about Erdogan earlier : if Austria was upset about his visit, well they shouldn't have let him enter the country at all. As simple as that.

This is not so easy though, because Erdogan is not some dictator but a democratically elected figure who "only" tends to be controversial.

And for another democratic country to say to Erdogan: "Du kommst hier net rein !" (You cannot come in !) would be quite a scandal.

What they could have tried though is to talk with the owners of the Albert-Schulz ice hockey hall to not let Erdogan host the campaign event.

But then they would have found another place and so on ...

[Tender Branson]

Typical moderate heroism by Austria yesterday when Putin came for a state visit and an entourage of economic advisers that made some big deals between the 2 countries, including an important pipeline deal that will bypass the unreliable Ukraine-route and provide Russian gas via Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary via the Black Sea:

Austria defies US, EU over South Stream during Putin visit

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...

Russia and Austria also signed a contract about bilateral natural disaster aid.

Austrian President Fischer (a Social Democrat), also talked with Putin about human rights abuses and gay rights in Russia. Amnesty International Austria asked Fischer to talk about these issues with Putin (Fischer is a founding member of AIA).



They also talked about the situation in Ukraine and it turns out that Putin might have moderated a bit more on the issue:

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Putin also visited the Russian WW2 memorial for fallen soldiers:



...

There were also protests for and against Putin in Vienna yesterday:

[Tender Branson]

New federal elections poll by Meinungsraum for NEWS magazine (sample = 800):

28% FPÖ (+7.5%)
23% SPÖ (-3.8%)
19% ÖVP (-5.0%)
14% Greens (+1.6%)
10% NEOS (+5.0%)
  2% TS (-3.7%)
  4% Others (-1.6%)

No majority for the current SPÖVP coalition (42-52).

Tie between FPÖVP (47%) and SPÖ/Greens/NEOS (47%).

Majority for SPÖVP/Greens (56-38).

Majority for FPÖ/SPÖ (51-43), which on the other hand means no majority for ÖVP/Greens/NEOS.

Direct vote for Chancellor:

15% H.C. Strache (FPÖ)
14% Werner Faymann (SPÖ)
  9% Michael Spindelegger (ÖVP)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20140626_OTS0121/meinungsraumat-umfrage-fpoe-klare-nummer-1

[Tender Branson]

New 2015 state and 2018 federal election polls for Upper Austria by M&R:



Pretty much as expected. The ÖVP is much stronger in the state election than in the federal election, while the FPÖ is much weaker.

If you look at the 2 charts below the election polls, you also know why:

"Do you approve or disapprove of the work the (ÖVP-Green) state government is doing ?"

73-24 Yes

"Do you approve or disapprove of the work the Austrian (SPÖVP) government is doing ?"

68-27 No

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian Constitutional Court today ruled that the collection and storage of all internet, landline/mobile-phone data by the government is UNCONSTITUTIONAL and that the government needs to STOP it immediately:



http://derstandard.at/2000002350932/Verfassungsgerichtshof-kippt-Vorratsdatenspeicherung

(The government has argued that there's strict data protection and that data would only be given to police in severe cases like murder/kidnapping/severe sexually-motivated cases and terrorism.

Last year, 400 people's online/telephone data have been directed to the police, including one prominent murder case, after which the police found the murder suspect in Tyrol with his phone data. The young suspect killed his girlfriend, drove with her body to the Inn river and dumped her in there. The police triangulated his phone signals and found out that the phone was logged in at the Inn river shore, while he said he was at home).