Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

The new ÖVP-leader Reinhold Mitterlehner gets quite favorable initial poll ratings (without actually helping his party in the polls yet, see above):

OGM for Kurier



Is Mitty the right guy for the ÖVP ?

All: 40-25 yes
ÖVP-voters: 74-11 yes

Will the working climate in the gov. become better or worse ?

All: 21% better, 10% worse, 59% won't change
ÖVP-voters: 45% better, 9% worse, 30% won't change

Will the leadership change result in more votes for the ÖVP ?

All: 15-66 no
ÖVP-voters: 48-43 yes

...

Gallup for Ö24



Mitty starts out with the best ratings for any party leader.

Is Mitty a better party leader than Spindi ?



36% Yes, better leader
  7% Worse leader
21% About the same

[Max Stirner]

Are you from Südtirol ?

Sicily but my brother lives in vienna

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖVP cabinet reshuffle is now complete. All new members (incl. the new Vice-Chancellor, the new ministers for Finance, Health and Transport, Innovation and Technology, as well as 2 state secretaries) have been sworn in today by the Federal President:

[Tender Branson]

After being relatively Putin-friendly when he visited Vienna in June, Faymann now applies the thumbscrews against Putin:

Faymann Sheds Austrian Reluctance to Confront Russia

Austria is ready to suffer the economic consequences of imposing more sanctions on Russia if that’s what it takes to de-escalate the conflict in Ukraine, Chancellor Werner Faymann said.

Russia crossed a red line by sending tanks and troops into Ukraine, Faymann told reporters in Vienna today. The comments mark a reversal for the Austrian leader, who hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin for a one-day state visit in June and said in July that sanctions wouldn’t secure peace.

“I want nothing more than a return to normality,” said Faymann. “But when it’s necessary to defend freedom and human rights, we’ll do everything politically possible to raise the pressure on Russia.’

Austrian companies have continued to expand in Russia even as the European Union has used sanctions to pressure Putin over his support for rebels in south and eastern Ukraine. Russia, which faces additional EU sanctions within the week, denies aiding the separatists and accuses the U.S. of stoking the conflict that has left at least 2,600 dead.

‘‘We had believed that war in Europe belonged to the past,” Faymann told parliament separately today. “Our job isn’t to place our good business cooperation to the fore, but to defend liberty. If we don’t defend liberty, we’ll lose it.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-02/faymann-sheds-austrian-reluctance-to-confront-russia.html

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls today (one showing a Mitterlehner/Schelling boost for the ÖVP after the leadership change, while the other does not).

Unique Research for "Heute" newspaper (sample = 800)

26% FPÖ (-3 compared with last month's poll)
25% SPÖ (nc)
24% ÖVP (+5)
11% Greens (-2)
10% NEOS (nc)
  2% TS (nc)
  2% Others (nc)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20140904_OTS0186/heute-umfrage-oevp-mit-mitterlehner-im-aufwind

Gallup for Ö24 (sample = 400)

28% FPÖ (nc)
25% SPÖ (nc)
20% ÖVP (+1)
15% Greens (nc)
  9% NEOS (-1)
  1% TS (nc)
  2% Others (nc)

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Mitterlehner-bei-Kanzler-Frage-vorne/156671076

In the direct vote for Chancellor, Mitty actually takes the lead against Faymann and Strache:

[Tender Branson]

I doubt, that the Styrians will see the new FPÖ-Führer as a serious contender.

Next year it won't really be about the FPÖ frontrunner: The voters of Styria will deliver a solid trashing to the state's SPÖVP "reform" coalition (which put on the way some important cost-cutting administrative reforms like merging cities, districts, etc. - that are actually effective, but not liked by the population).

Which means party (FPÖ) trumps new youngish frontrunner (which is also not bad, since he's a blank page without scandal).

FPÖ will get 25-30% in Styria next year.

[Zanas]

Sure, but that young soldier has to survive a hostile press, TV-debates,... If he appears as a harmless&brave boy with some helpless verbal radicalism, his protest-voters go to Stronach or KPÖ!

Once again. Not how this works. Sigh....

[Tender Branson]

New Vorarlberg state election poll for the VN:

39.0% ÖVP (-12%)
25.0% FPÖ (no change)
14.0% Greens (+4%)
  9.5% NEOS (+9.5%)
  9.5% SPÖ (-1%)
  3.0% Others (Pirates, CPÖ, Men's Party, WIR: Platform for Families)

http://www.vorarlbergernachrichten.at/sonderthemen/2014/09/05/lh-wallner-vor-qual-der-wahl.vn

Hypothetical direct vote for Governor:

43% Markus Wallner (ÖVP-incumbent)
21% Dieter Egger (FPÖ)
11% Michael Ritsch (SPÖ)
  9% Johannes Rauch (Greens)
  5% Sabine Scheffknecht (NEOS)
11% Don't know/none of them/others

Projected turnout:

71% will vote
28% won't vote
  1% undecided

There has already been an ORF-debate between the frontrunners of each party, which mainly focused on jobs/economy, childcare, rents/living-costs, pensions and the EU.



Interestingly, FPÖ's Egger distanced himself from Austrian FPÖ-leader Strache in demanding an exit from the Eurozone (saying the Vbg. economy is too interconnected with the EU/Euro).

[Tender Branson]

2 weeks to go in Vorarlberg, and the state is already full of campaign posters:





Apparently, the SPÖ tries to "win" the election with their garden gnomes and Snow White on their posters ...

The FPÖ has their typical populist themes on their posters from what I can see ("Education reform now." or "Fair Pensions now.")

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Were the gnomes returned by the way?

[Yeahsayyeah]

"Wer ist der stärkste Zwerg in Vorarlberg?" Really? Is this a legit campaign poster? Sounds more like Martin Sonneborn and the like.

[Tender Branson]

Were the gnomes returned by the way?

No, the 400 SPÖ-garden gnomes are still missing.

But some SPÖ-campaigners decided to hide for a few hours into the night, next to a spot where they deployed garden gnomes recently and it turned out that a ÖVP-guy (and a few others) took them away. As the ÖVP-guy was caught red-handed by the SPÖ-campaigners, they called the police which pressed charges against the gnome-thieves ...

[Zanas]

We French have a gnome in the Élysée that we very much would like for you Austrians, ÖVPers or others, to come and steal... And you could keep him.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Were the gnomes returned by the way?

No, the 400 SPÖ-garden gnomes are still missing.

But some SPÖ-campaigners decided to hide for a few hours into the night, next to a spot where they deployed garden gnomes recently and it turned out that a ÖVP-guy (and a few others) took them away. As the ÖVP-guy was caught red-handed by the SPÖ-campaigners, they called the police which pressed charges against the gnome-thieves ...

I'm glad some justice remains in the world.

[Tender Branson]

Peter McDonald to become the new head of the Austrian Social Security carriers, now that Hans-Jörg Schelling (the previous successful head of the ASSc) has become Minister for Finance.



McDonald is of Irish ancestry.

http://derstandard.at/2000005313595/Hauptverband-Nach-allen-Regeln-des-Proporzes

[Tender Branson]

With 1 week to go until the Vorarlberg state election, the political blog "neuwal.com" has started their election tipping game.

http://neuwal.com/wahltipp

With 100 predictions in, the score is:

39.0% ÖVP (center-right)
23.9% FPÖ (far-right)
14.0% Greens (left)
10.3% SPÖ (center-left)
  9.9% NEOS (centrist)
  1.1% Pirates (left)
  0.6% Men's Party (centrist)
  0.6% WIR (right)
  0.6% CPÖ (far-right)

I would rate ÖVP, FPÖ & Greens higher (ca. 40%, 25%, 15%) and the SPÖ and NEOS lower (9% & 8%).

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the upcoming Vorarlberg state election on Sunday:

40.2% ÖVP
24.8% FPÖ
15.1% Greens
  9.4% SPÖ
  8.1% NEOS
  0.8% Pirates
  0.7% WIR
  0.5% CPÖ
  0.4% Men's Party

Last time around, in 2009, the results were:

50.8% ÖVP
25.1% FPÖ
10.6% Greens
10.0% SPÖ
  3.5% Others

Which means ca. 66% for the right-wing parties and 25% for the left-wing ones (NEOS/Men's Party are "centrist").

The campaign has been rather boring (other than the SPÖ's missing gnomes story), mostly because things in Vorarlberg (a Swiss-style state) are perceived to go in the "right direction", with the local state government being competent and virtually no debts.



The campaign mostly focused on everyday life things, such as education/child care/housing/rents/pensions etc., with no controversial stuff coming up.

Political scientists therefore think that turnout (which was rather high until the end-1990s, due to mandatory voting, which was later scrapped) could be really low (around 60%).

People could think "why bother voting if everything's OK anyway" ...

The ÖVP of course will lose massively, due to the competition from NEOS - but will of course remain far ahead of all others and can enter coalitions with whoever they like, with ÖVP-Greens most likely.

Anyone else who wants to try a prediction ?

[Cranberry]

Quite similar to Tender Branson's, just with NEOS being stronger than SPÖ

40% ÖVP
23% FPÖ
15% Grüne
10% NEOS
10% SPÖ
2% Others

[Tender Branson]

Bad news for NEOS in the final days before the Vbg. state election:



During a discussion in front of 1200 students, the NEOS-frontrunner Sabine Scheffknecht apparently was so bad that both the ÖVP- and Green-frontrunners called her "incompetent".

A poll conducted among the students before the debate showed that 15.7% of them intended to vote for NEOS. After the debate, the poll was done again and just 3.7% of them supported NEOS.

[Tender Branson]

After Unique Research/Profil, now Gallup/Ö24 too shows the ÖVP gaining:

26% FPÖ
25% SPÖ
23% ÖVP
15% Greens
  8% NEOS
  3% Others

Since Mitty took over the ÖVP from Spindi, the ÖVP has gained 4-6%, depending on the poll.

FPÖ loses ca. 2-3%, NEOS loses 2% and SPÖ/Greens remain relatively stable.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Mitterlehner-Effekt-bringt-OeVP-Zugewinn/158326784

[Tender Branson]

There's also a new Ökonsult/Bezirksblätter poll out today, which also backs up the findings of the 2 previous polls:

26% FPÖ
25% SPÖ
24% ÖVP
14% Greens
  9% NEOS
  2% TS

Direct vote for Chancellor:

21% Reinhold Mitterlehner (ÖVP)
20% Werner Faymann (SPÖ-incumbent)
16% H.C. Strache (FPÖ)
  9% Eva Glawischnig (Greens)
  7% Matthias Strolz (NEOS)
  1% Kathrin Nachbaur (TS)
26% None of them/Others

"In order to balance the federal budget, in which of these areas do you see the most potential for spending cuts ?"

42% federal/state administration/bureaucracy
18% subsidies/benefits
17% pensions
12% agriculture
11% health care system

http://www.meinbezirk.at/land-oesterreich/politik/polit-umfrage-fpoe-nun-vor-spoe-und-oevp-d1086065.html

[Tender Branson]

Btw: The polls for the state election in Vorarlberg on Sunday will close at 1pm.

Pretty much like Switzerland handles it ...

[Cranberry]

Will the first projections be available already at 1 then? At federal elections, you usually get the total of Vbg's results at 5 already because of this; but I don't know about state elections?

[Tender Branson]

Will the first projections be available already at 1 then? At federal elections, you usually get the total of Vbg's results at 5 already because of this; but I don't know about state elections?

The city results will be individually available starting at 1pm, but the ORF bothers only with a first projection at 2pm. I guess because Vbg. is not one of the most important states out there ...

Usually, the ORF has a first projection at poll closing time in every other state election though (maybe Vbg. is just special, because they close so early).

[Cranberry]

Okay... Well, it is just Vorarlberg, so... I mean, it should be understandable that the Barbara Karlich Show is far more important than that