Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

Okay... Well, it is just Vorarlberg, so... I mean, it should be understandable that the Barbara Karlich Show is far more important than that

No, actually "Panorama" and "Heimat, Fremde Heimat" (which is what ORF2 will show on Sunday between 1pm and 2pm instead of state election coverage).

[Cranberry]

Okay... Well, it is just Vorarlberg, so... I mean, it should be understandable that the Barbara Karlich Show is far more important than that

No, actually "Panorama" and "Heimat, Fremde Heimat" (which is what ORF2 will show on Sunday between 1pm and 2pm instead of state election coverage).

I do not know any of those programs, I just took the only ORF afternoon program I knew
Like every sane Austrian, I restrict my ORF-watching to some football games I want to see (usually not broadcasted, but anyway), ZIB, and post 21:00 programs

[Tender Branson]

My final prediction for the Vbg. state election tomorrow:

40.4% ÖVP
24.9% FPÖ
15.6% Greens
  9.4% SPÖ
  7.3% NEOS
  0.8% Pirates
  0.7% WIR
  0.5% CPÖ
  0.4% Men's Party

Turnout: 60-65%

[Tender Branson]

A look back to 2009 shows just how conservative Vorarlberg is:

The most right-wing city in the state was Damüls with:

75% ÖVP
23% FPÖ
1.5% BZÖ

The most left-wing city was Bregenz with:

21% SPÖ
12% Greens
2% GSI

[Tender Branson]

The polls in Vorarlberg are now open and close at 1pm !



Here are the 2009 state election results and historical results:

[Tender Branson]

All polls in Vorarlberg close in 45 minutes !

Here's Governor Markus Wallner (ÖVP) and family voting:



Plus a Vorarlberg voting booth:

[Tender Branson]

Results are here:

http://orf.at/wahl/vorarlberg14

and here:

http://www.vorarlberg.at/wahlen/lt.asp?ergebnisse=vorarlberg

...

They start coming in at 1pm (in 15 minutes).

Today, most ballots will be counted, incl. ca. 90% of postal ballots (only the ca. 10% of postal ballots that are cast in another precinct than the own will be counted Tuesday).

[Tender Branson]

ORF 2 live stream.

[Tender Branson]

First trends based on already counted small towns:

* ÖVP loses absolute majority (like expected)
* FPÖ results mixed so far
* Greens will gain
* NEOS enters state parliament
* SPÖ remains weak
* small parties have no chance

The ORF will have a 1st projection at 2pm.

[Tender Branson]

Checking ORF's analysis page, turnout isn't actually all too bad (hitting 75-80% in the small towns and relatively stable or higher compared with 2009).

http://orf.at/wahl/vorarlberg14/#analysis

[Tender Branson]

28/96 cities already counted (but that's only 4.5% of eligible voters):

ÖVP loses 8%+
FPÖ loses 0.2%
Greens gain ca. 4%
SPÖ loses 0.2%
NEOS gets ca. 6%

[Tender Branson]

The Greens will definitely have a strong result.

If they are already getting 10-12% in the mountainous farmer and tourism villages, then the urban and densely populated Rhine-Valley will push them to 15-20% statewide I guess.

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ-results in all the (so far counted) mountain-towns are hilarious:

1-3%

[Cranberry]

Bizau has 0.86% SPÖ!
The Bregenzerwald is just hilarious when it comes to voting

[Tender Branson]

First city of some relevant size from the Rhine-Valley reports (Höchst):

Massive losses for the ÖVP (-20%)
Gains for the FPÖ (+6%, with almost 30% support)
Strong gains for the Greens (+8%)
NEOS has only 6.5% there
SPÖ gains 1.2%

[Tender Branson]

1 important and big city has just finished counting (Lustenau):

ÖVP         37,37 % (-11,88 %)
FPÖ          29,52 % (-0,34 %)
GRÜNE      19,47 % (+9,36 %)
SPÖ             5,75 % (-1,53 %)
NEOS           6,18 % (+6,18 %)

[Tender Branson]

The liberal NEOS will definitely underperform their polling numbers (like I expected) and the Greens are doing much better (yay !).

Maybe there's even a dent for the FPÖ at the end of the day ...

[Tender Branson]

1st VBG projection from the ORF:

41.3% ÖVP
23.4% FPÖ
17.1% Greens
  9.1% SPÖ
  7.1% NEOS
  2.1% Others

The state should then be fully counted in the next 1-2 hours.

[Cranberry]

This is actually a great result.

6% gains for the Greens, a modest NEOS result and even slight losses for the FPÖ is a good result. The only thing Vorarlberg will have to work on is 40%+ ÖVP

[Hash]

So NEOS is basically the new LIF (meaning it will die out very quickly)?

[Zanas]

So NEOS is basically the new LIF (meaning it will die out very quickly)?

I'm not sure it will die out so easily, it seems to occupy a genuine political space in the landscape.

Anyway, good for the Greens!

[Tender Branson]

So NEOS is basically the new LIF (meaning it will die out very quickly)?

Next year, 4 state elections take place in Burgenland, Styria, Upper Austria and Vienna.

Basically half of Austria will vote next year, which means these state elections will tell us more if NEOS is here to stay or not.

Maybe NEOS would have done better today if they had a more experienced politician rather than a newcomer (sounds strange, right ?). Usually newcomers are better than experienced politicians, but in the case of NEOS they picked a candidate who stumbled on a few issues and was heavily attacked by the ÖVP and Green frontrunners. NEOS, in the beginning, had the advantage of not being taken seriously by the main parties but that changed during the EU elections and now in Vorarlberg. Now, the main parties take them seriously and try to take them out.

Next year, NEOS will also face problems in Upper Austria, Burgenland and Styria (where the main battle will be SPÖ/ÖVP vs. FPÖ for 1st place, which will drown out NEOS). NEOS has a good chance in Vienna though.

[Tender Branson]

I was watching Formula 1, so here's the statewide result for Vorarlberg:

41.83% ÖVP (-8.96%)
23.46% FPÖ (-1.66%)
17.08% Greens (+6.50%)
  8.79% SPÖ (-1.23%)
  6.86% NEOS (+6.86%)
  0.63% WIR (+0.63%)
  0.49% CPÖ (+0.49%)
  0.47% Pirates (+0.47%)
  0.40% M (+0.40%)

Seats:

16 ÖVP (-4)
  9 FPÖ (nc)
  6 Greens (+2)
  3 SPÖ (nc)
  2 NEOS (+2)

Map (ÖVP wins all cities, except 2 that were won by the FPÖ)



Look at party strength by town here:

http://orf.at/wahl/vorarlberg14/#analysis

[Tender Branson]

What's next ?

Now that the ÖVP has lost its absolute majority in Vbg., the 2 most likely coalitions are:

* ÖVP-Greens
* ÖVP-FPÖ

...

* ÖVP-SPÖ is possible too, but would only have a 1-seat majority.
* ÖVP-NEOS is not possible.

...

ÖVP-Greens is the most likely outcome, because the Greens have gained votes while the FPÖ lost.

It would be the 6th state government (out of 9) with the Green Party in it (only Lower Austria, Styria and Burgenland have no Greens in the government).

[politicus]

It would be the 6th state government (out of 9) with the Green Party in it (only Lower Austria, Styria and Burgenland have no Greens in the government).

Do the Greens get any actual influence on environmental policies and infrastructure in these coalitions?