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Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0  (Read 324556 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #550 on: September 21, 2014, 10:45:14 AM »


It would be the 6th state government (out of 9) with the Green Party in it (only Lower Austria, Styria and Burgenland have no Greens in the government).

Do the Greens get any actual influence on environmental policies and infrastructure in these coalitions? 

Yes, the most important projects pushed by the Greens include the MaHü in Vienna:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=180261.msg4083333#msg4083333

And a few speed limit regulations on highways (80 km/h or 100 km/h instead of 130 km/h) to lower emissions & particulate matter concentration for example in Tyrol and Salzburg which are heavily impacted by transit cargo transports.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #551 on: September 21, 2014, 10:47:32 AM »

From the Vorarlberg "exit" poll:

Among Vorarlberg men aged 16-44, about 46% voted FPÖ (!!!).

Among women in the same age group, the Greens came on top with 35%.

Workers voted FPÖ with 53%.



I'll try to get the full results later.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #552 on: September 21, 2014, 11:03:28 AM »

"Exit" Poll details:

Vote by gender:



Vote by age:



Vote by gender/age (16-44 years old):



Vote by gender/age (45+ years old):



Direct vote for Governor:



Vote by broad profession (workers, white-collar emloyees, self-employed, retired):



Vote by education (regular schooling, apprenticeship, higher schools, high-school passed/university):



Has Vbg. changed for the better or worse since 2009 ? Or no change ? By party:



How do you see the future of the state ? (positive, negative, neither)



Most important campaign topics:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #553 on: September 21, 2014, 11:20:58 AM »

The full SORA/ORF election day analysis (our version of an exit poll) is now online:

http://www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2014_LTW-Vbg_Wahlanalyse-Grafiken.pdf

http://www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2014_LTW-Vbg_Wahlanalyse.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #554 on: September 21, 2014, 11:29:30 AM »

Voter streams 2009 => 2014 by party:

http://orf.at/wahl/vorarlberg14/#analysis/migration

NEOS got their voters mostly from the ÖVP and non-voters.

The Greens even got some former FPÖ-voters, but got many votes from the ÖVP and non-voters.

The ÖVP lost mostly to non-voters, the Greens and to the FPÖ.

The FPÖ lost mostly to the ÖVP and non-voters.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #555 on: September 21, 2014, 11:50:15 AM »

The map was already depressing in 2009 and it remains depressing:



All the results from the latest state elections:

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Cranberry
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« Reply #556 on: September 21, 2014, 12:19:23 PM »


It would be the 6th state government (out of 9) with the Green Party in it (only Lower Austria, Styria and Burgenland have no Greens in the government).

Do the Greens get any actual influence on environmental policies and infrastructure in these coalitions? 

Yes, the most important projects pushed by the Greens include the MaHü in Vienna:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=180261.msg4083333#msg4083333

And a few speed limit regulations on highways (80 km/h or 100 km/h instead of 130 km/h) to lower emissions & particulate matter concentration for example in Tyrol and Salzburg which are heavily impacted by transit cargo transports.

At least in Tirol however they have been quite disappointing. They basically did nothing on the Agrargemeinschaft-dispute (the question who is to own certain areas of alpine woodland - the municipalities or an association of local farmers (many of them are no farmers anymore however) that have owned and managed them for the last 60 years, yet in no way are democratically legitimised. This is a huge problem because many of these lands are now used as ski resorts, and the associations earn a whole lot of money from the tenancy or even own the resorts themselves sometimes), they are very quiet on the conversion of the Kalkkögel, a very beautiful natural protected area, to a ski resort; the only thing they got through really was the 100km/h on the motorway, while otherwise they have become the people to say yes when the ÖVP wants something...
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politicus
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« Reply #557 on: September 21, 2014, 12:42:12 PM »

The gender gap in that exit poll is really quite amazing - one of the biggest I have seen anywhere. Is FPÖ that much of a mens party in the rest of Austria?
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Cranberry
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« Reply #558 on: September 21, 2014, 12:46:48 PM »

The gender gap in that exit poll is really quite amazing - one of the biggest I have seen anywhere. Is FPÖ that much of a mens party in the rest of Austria?

That one was really a big one, but FPÖ is usually very unbalanced when it comes to gender...
I have heard FPÖ in Vbg were quite successful in attracting young men with immigrant background, so that might have helped...
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Zanas
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« Reply #559 on: September 21, 2014, 02:15:34 PM »

These crosstabs show that only woman aged under 45 should be allowed to vote in Vorarlberg, as well as in Austria as a whole.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #560 on: September 22, 2014, 01:28:28 AM »

These crosstabs show that only women aged under 45 should be allowed to vote in Vorarlberg, as well as in Austria as a whole.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #561 on: September 22, 2014, 02:25:52 AM »

With coalition talks in Vbg. starting, Gov. Markus Wallner (ÖVP) has said that he wants a public apology from FPÖ's leader Dieter Egger for his anti-semitic remarks during the 2009 state election campaign, in which Egger called the director of the Jewish Museum in Hohenems an "exile Jew from America".

I guess the ÖVP is unlikely to enter a coalition with the FPÖ as long as Egger does not 100% apologize for his comment. The ÖVP doesn't want to be dragged into another controversial "Black-Blue coalition" (after the 2000 federal one).

Wallner has also said that the gains by the Greens is "something that needs to be taken seriously", which further increases the chances of an ÖVP-Green coalition.

http://derstandard.at/2000005868723/Schwarz-Blau-oder-Schwarz-Gruen-Vorarlbergs-Landeshauptmann-Wallner-haelt-sich
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swl
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« Reply #562 on: September 22, 2014, 05:29:49 AM »

Yes, the most important projects pushed by the Greens include the MaHü in Vienna:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=180261.msg4083333#msg4083333

And a few speed limit regulations on highways (80 km/h or 100 km/h instead of 130 km/h) to lower emissions & particulate matter concentration for example in Tyrol and Salzburg which are heavily impacted by transit cargo transports.
And do they get any influence besides environmental policies?

It looks like anything but the main parties is good for the youth, FPO Greens and NEOS all doing better than OVP and SPO.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #563 on: September 22, 2014, 05:47:58 AM »

Yes, the most important projects pushed by the Greens include the MaHü in Vienna:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=180261.msg4083333#msg4083333

And a few speed limit regulations on highways (80 km/h or 100 km/h instead of 130 km/h) to lower emissions & particulate matter concentration for example in Tyrol and Salzburg which are heavily impacted by transit cargo transports.
And do they get any influence besides environmental policies?

It looks like anything but the main parties is good for the youth, FPO Greens and NEOS all doing better than OVP and SPO.

Yepp.

For example in Salzburg (my home state), there's an ÖVP-Greens-TS government.

The state government is made up of 7 members (3 ÖVP, 3 Greens, 1 TS) and the 3 Greens have these portfolios:

Astrid Rössler (Vice-Governor)Sad

    Naturschutz, Nationalpark
    Umweltschutz, UVP-Verfahren
    Gewässerschutz
    Gewerbeangelegenheiten
    Raumordnung
    Baurecht
    Tierschutz
    Abfallwirtschaft

Martina Berthold:

    Kinderbildung und -betreuung
    Erwachsenenbildung, Öffentliche Bibliotheken und Gemeindeentwicklung
    Wissenschaft, Universitäten, Forschung und Entwicklungszusammenarbeit
    Jugend
    Familie und Generationen
    Migration und Grundversorgung
    Sport
    Frauen
    Chancengleichheit und Anti-Diskriminierung

Heinrich Schellhorn:

    Soziales
    Pflege
    Kultur
    Volkskultur
    Museen

...

So, basically the Greens have important portfolios other than the environment as well: They get the ones who are traditionally the ones the SPÖ got when they were in government, such as Social Issues, Youth, old people care, women, anti-discrimination, asylum/migration/integration, animal rights etc.

The ÖVP gets their traditional portfolios such as the economy and agriculture.

The TS got construction and housing.

...

Currently, Martina Berthold for example has to deal with an influx of asylum seekers and how to house them in the state of Salzburg because there are hardly any quarters for them.

So, yeah, the Greens are certainly making politics in the state.
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njwes
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« Reply #564 on: September 22, 2014, 12:15:14 PM »

If OVP and FPO do form a coalition would that be the first government at any level to have one since the 2000 national coalition?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #565 on: September 22, 2014, 12:46:12 PM »

If OVP and FPO do form a coalition would that be the first government at any level to have one since the 2000 national coalition?

Nope.

Vorarlberg had only ÖVP-FPÖ governments from the 1970s to 2009, despite the fact that the ÖVP had an absolute majority most of the time.

Also, the 2004 Carinthia state election led to the re-election of Jörg Haider (FPÖ) as Governor (he was elected Governor in state parliament with the votes of FPÖ and ÖVP, while the SPÖ and Greens abstained. Technically, the Carinthian government was, and still is, based on the principle of "Proporz" though, which means not only FPÖ and ÖVP had government posts. After the 2013 state election for example, SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens formed a coalition in Carinthia, but the FPÖ and the Team Stronach also got government posts, a so-called Landesrat. The current government wants to abolish the Proporz though in this term, so that only the coalition parties will have government posts after the next state election).
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Cranberry
TheCranberry
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« Reply #566 on: September 22, 2014, 12:48:07 PM »

If OVP and FPO do form a coalition would that be the first government at any level to have one since the 2000 national coalition?

There was a ÖVP-FPÖ government in Vorarlberg until 2009.

However, I don't think that we will get a ÖVP/FPÖ government any time soon now, as the Greens especially in the West, where they are far more conservative than in Vienna, have become a viable alternative for the ÖVP; as the FPÖ simply isn't seen as an agreeable option by the people that still vote ÖVP...
Not that I hope it, but next year in Styria we could see one party enter a coalition with the FPÖ, though that will be more likely the SPÖ... Generally, there are some voices within the SPÖ that do want a Red-Blue coalition, especially from the SPÖ's workers wing (naturally the constituency where SPÖ and FPÖ compete the most; so I guess those guys just fear their political survival)
But as of now, basically since Schüssel, the FPÖ just is a no-go for any political party, state and federal level.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #567 on: September 24, 2014, 11:35:26 AM »

Now there's a loooooong election break.

The next state election will take place in May 2015 and it's not really an important one: Burgenland

The important state elections will then take place in September and October and involve 3 big states: Vienna, Styria and Upper Austria.

It means that next year 55% of eligible Austrian voters will have a chance to vote in state elections.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #568 on: September 25, 2014, 08:29:28 AM »

New ATV Austria Trend poll:



http://atv.at/oesterreichtrend
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Cranberry
TheCranberry
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« Reply #569 on: September 25, 2014, 02:38:52 PM »

Is this recent "surge" of ÖVP numbers the Django Mitterlehner factor? Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #570 on: September 26, 2014, 04:44:50 AM »

Is this recent "surge" of ÖVP numbers the Django Mitterlehner factor? Tongue

Yepp.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #571 on: September 26, 2014, 04:46:37 AM »

The Vorarlberg-ÖVP has decided to start coalition talks with the Greens.

The new state government should be ready by Oct. 15

http://derstandard.at/2000006069850/In-Vorarlberg-stehen-die-Zeichen-auf-Schwarz-Gruen
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #572 on: September 30, 2014, 02:49:42 AM »

The biggest news today is that the Austrian debt as a % of GDP will increase to 87% at the end of the year.

Up from 74.5% at the end of last year ...

Why ?

2 reasons: First, STATISTIK Austria recalculated "hidden" debts (6.5% of GDP) that are now added to the total and second because of the HYPO bad bank that will drive up the debt by another 6% when the bad bank starts in November.

Quote
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http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/078766
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #573 on: October 02, 2014, 03:35:36 AM »

Carinthia's capital Klagenfurt sees the defection of a ViceMayor from FPÖ, months after another case. Thus there will be at least 5 right-populist parties next spring (FPÖ, BZÖ, T.Stronach-Köfer, 2 ex-FPÖ)...

Despite being almost meaningless (except in Klagenfurt and Villach), I'm looking forward to the Carinthian municipal elections in early 2015, when the remnants of FPÖ-rule (the remaining mayors) will finally become history.

The rest will follow in 2018, when the BZÖ and Team Stronach get kicked out of the state parliament.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #574 on: October 02, 2014, 04:02:14 AM »

Here's an overview of the current state governments, following the Sept. 21 state election in Vorarlberg:



Currently, the 3 western states are "Proporz"-free, meaning that all state government posts are only taken by the coalition parties in these states.

6 states still have some form of "Proporz", which means all parties in the state parliaments with a certain size (usually 10% or more) will get a government post, no matter what the coalition in this state is.

In Burgenland and Styria, the "Proporz" was abolished in the last legislative term, which means that after their state elections in 2015 they will be "Proporz"-free as well.

Carinthia's government (SPÖ-ÖVP-Greens) is in the process of getting rid of it as well and could be "Proporz"-free in time for the 2018 state election.

That means that there's a good chance that after 2018, only 3 states (Upper Austria, Lower Austria and Vienna) will still have some kind of Proporz.

But in Vienna the Proporz is only technical and "in name only" anyway, since the cabinet members of FPÖ and ÖVP under the city's Proporz-system have no powers (-> "Stadträte ohne Ressort").

In Lower Austria, the ÖVP has an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament - but after the 2013 state election still decided to enter a "working agreement" (coalition) with the SPÖ. Under the state's Proporz-system, the Team Stronach also has a cabinet post - while the FPÖ and the Greens were too weak in the state election to get any.

In Carinthia, FPÖ and Team Stronach as well have a cabinet post each due to Proporz.

In Upper Austria, despite the ÖVP-Green coalition, the SPÖ has 2 cabinet posts and the FPÖ 1.

And finally in Styria, the FPÖ has a cabinet post - with the Greens and the Communists too weak in the last state election to get any.
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