Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

New poll (Gallup/Ö24):

[Tender Branson]

Defense Minister Gerald Klug (SPÖ) announces tough budget-cuts for the Austrian military:

http://www.thelocal.at/20141003/army-announces-wide-ranging-cuts

Austria, compared with other countries, already spends one of the lowest amounts on the military (ca. 0.6% of the GDP, which is only 1/6th of what the US spends for example), and that is projected to decline to 0.5% of GDP in the next years.

I don't really mind it, as long as they sell useless military equipment that nobody needs anyway.

The military should rather focus on disaster management/help and not silly wargames with equipment that costs a ton.

[Tender Branson]

A new OGM poll for the Styria state election in 2015 shows that the FPÖ has fallen back by quite a bit and is currently not within striking distance of 1st place:



OGM is one of the best pollsters, so this is good news.

The Communists and NEOS would make it into state parliament, Team Stronach not.

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/steiermark/3757670/tut-uns-reform-partnerschaft-gut.story

[Cranberry]

Sure, it's a very early poll; but this looks quite good for Styria.

[Tender Branson]

Sure, it's a very early poll; but this looks quite good for Styria.

Yepp.

And I also noticed something about the FPÖ recently:

In other countries, such as Sweden or France, the far-right parties tend to underpoll (getting lower support in polls than on election day), which is similar to what happened with the FPÖ in the 1990s.

But recently, it seems that the FPÖ is actually overpolling: In the 2013 federal election, they were polling 20-23% and got 20.5% on election day. In the EU elections, they polled 20-23% and got 19.5%. In the Vorarlberg state elections, the polled 25% and ended with 23.5%.

Maybe that's just margin of error-related stuff, but the FPÖ is certainly not underpolling anymore like in the 1990s, when people thought it was "uncool" to admit to pollsters that they are voting FPÖ.

I think a reason for the recent overpolling might be the FPÖ's increasingly younger electorate: Young FPÖ-voting people between 16-45 years of age might answer the phone or participate in online polls before the election, but then fail to show up on election day.

[EPG]

These right-wing parties mostly have younger or at least middle-aged electorates, including in Sweden/France (though not the UK), which probably reflects a lack of entrenched voting habits more than policy disagreements between age groups. I think, unlike in Sweden/France, the FPÖ is a longer-lived party, a major party in percentage terms, which has been in the federal/national government, and which is less stigmatised as a result, and easier to poll.

[Tender Branson]

First Burgenland state election poll (the poll appears in the BVZ newspaper, but the article doesn't mention the pollster, but I guess it's some sort of internal - most likely from the SPÖ. The sample size is rather big with 1000 people questioned in a state that only has 300.000 people. Burgenland will vote in May 2015):

47% SPÖ (-1% since the 2010 state election)
31% ÖVP (-4%)
10% FPÖ (+1%)
  6% Greens (+2%)
  2% NEOS (+2%)
  2% LBL (-2%)
  0% TS
  2% Others (+2%)

The article mentions that out of the 1000 people questioned, nobody said that they'd vote for the Team Stronach ...

Direct vote for Governor:

64% Hans Niessl (SPÖ-Incumbent)
25% Franz Steindl (ÖVP)

http://www.bvz.at/nachrichten/bgld/politik-bildung/art79578,574364

[Tender Branson]

Some facts about this Burgenland poll:

* The LBL (Liste Burgenland) is an independent group that only exists in Burgenland and which split off from the FPÖ before the 2010 elections. The party managed 4.0000001% or something in the 2010 state election and entered the state parliament by 1 vote (with a 4% threshold) ... So please never say again that your vote does not matter in an election

* Burgenland has abolished the "Proporz"-system during the last year, effective with the next state election. Proporz means that every party with a certain percentage at the last election will get a cabinet post in the state government. With the abolition, it means that for example should the SPÖ win the election with 47% and enter a coalition with the FPÖ or the Greens, the ÖVP would be completely in opposition with no cabinet posts. In fact, with 47% the SPÖ could choose either ÖVP, FPÖ or Greens as their coalition partner.

[Zanas]

In fact, with 47% the SPÖ could choose either ÖVP, FPÖ or Greens as their coalition partner.

With spoilt votes below the threshold, wouldn't they actually end up with an absolute majority with 47% ? Why would they enter a coalition in that case ?

[Tender Branson]

In fact, with 47% the SPÖ could choose either ÖVP, FPÖ or Greens as their coalition partner.

With spoilt votes below the threshold, wouldn't they actually end up with an absolute majority with 47% ? Why would they enter a coalition in that case ?

Because they would end up with 18 of 36 seats in the state parliament.

That's not an absolute majority, as the other 3 parties could block everything in parliament.

[Tender Branson]

Some facts about this Burgenland poll:
* Burgenland has abolished the "Proporz"-system during the last year, effective with the next state election.

SPÖVP are going to abolish the Proporz!

Yes, that's what I said.

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna state election poll by Unique Research for "Heute" newspaper (sample = 500, Sept. 29 to Oct. 6, MoE = +/- 4.4%). Vienna is set to vote in June or October 2015:



Direct vote for mayor:



Also:

81% of those polled say Vienna is an awesome city
82% say that the public transportation system is exemplary
59% say that they feel very safe in Vienna
57% say that they city does a lot for cyclists
74% say living is too expensive in Vienna
60% say fees are too high in Vienna
53% say that (car) drivers are neglected by the city
52% say that there are too many foreigners in Vienna (25% are foreigners btw, and ca. 40% have migration background)

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,1080583

[Tender Branson]

Upper Austria state election poll (an internal for the ÖVP):

41-42% ÖVP
22-23% SPÖ
18-19% FPÖ
     10% Greens
    5-6% NEOS

http://www.meinbezirk.at/linz/politik/umfrage-oevp-liegt-bei-41-prozent-d1109953.html

2009 state election results were:

47% ÖVP
25% SPÖ
15% FPÖ
  9% Greens
  3% BZÖ
  1% Others

NEOS did not exist back then.

Upper Austria will vote in September 2015.

[Tender Branson]

The Vienna poll from yesterday by sub-groups:



From top to bottom:

* men
* women
* 16-29 years old
* 30-49 years old
* 50 or older
* Matura (= the final exam in high schools and other schools that allows you to study @ unis)
* keine Matura (= without a uni-qualifying exam)

[Tender Branson]

Another interesting fact about Vienna:

In 2013, ca. 17% of eligible Vienna voters were born abroad but were naturalized, with another 2% who are 2nd generation Austrians (which means their parents were born abroad, but the voters themselves are already born in Austria). That means 19% of Vienna voters have a migration background (that is likely to increase to 20% for the 2015 state elections).

Of the 20%, the biggest share comes from EU-countries+Norway+Iceland+Switzerland with 7%, followed by former Yugoslav countries with 5%, Turks with 3%. The rest (5%) comes from other countries.

For the 2010 Vienna state election, SORA had an "exit poll" which showed that 27% of Vienna voters without migration background voted for the FPÖ.

Of the people with migration background, just 16% voted for the FPÖ.

People with migration background also backed the SPÖ by a much bigger margin than those without.

Which probably means that if the numbers of the Vienna poll yesterday are correct (SPÖ 35%, FPÖ 27%), then SPÖ and FPÖ might now be statistically tied among voters without a migration background.

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna poll by Gallup pretty much shows the same thing as the Unique Research poll that I posted above:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Wien-Wahl-SPOe-verliert-7-Prozent/161041907

SPÖVP lose ground, FPÖ is stable at a high level, Greens gain a bit and NEOS would enter the state parliament (but is already quite weak).

Direct vote for Mayor:

[Tender Branson]

The new ÖVP-Green government has been sworn in in Vorarlberg.



The Greens get 2 of the 7 state cabinet posts.

http://www.format.at/politik/markus-wallner-vorarlberger-landeshauptmann-5150953

[Tender Branson]

The state government of Salzburg (where I live) has presented a balanced budget for 2015.

Also, the state debt (2.1 Bio. €) is projected to decline to 1.9 Bio. € at the end of next year.

That means the budget and also the debt is now back to "pre-financial/investment-scandal" levels.

Salzburg state was hit by a financial/investment-scandal in late-2012 that led to heavy losses of the SPÖ and ÖVP in the 2013 state election. SPÖ and ÖVP-officials were mostly equally responsible, but the voters punished the SPÖ most (they were the senior coalition partner at that time).

The new ÖVP-Green-Team Stronach government has now promised to set up a new accounting system (which they did), get rid of all speculation/trading with state money (they got rid of 99% of them by now), only present balanced budgets from now on and lower the state debt to 1.7 Bio. € by 2018 (when their term is over).

[Tender Branson]

A new OGM/Kurier poll about Austrian's opinion about asylum seekers from Syria/Iraq/Afghanistan/Somalia/Eritrea etc.:

"Austria currently takes ca. 30.000 refugees/asylum seekers each year. Do you think we should accept more or should there be a cap ?"

29% accept more
59% stop accepting more



"Would you personally let a refugee family from Syria/Iraq etc. live in your house for a few months ?"

  6% Yes
78% No

19% of Green-voters and 12% of NEOS-voters say "Yes", while 0% of FPÖ-voters do so.



"Currently, some EU-countries accept more asylum seekers than other countries relative to their population size. Should Austria work at the EU-level for a policy that would distribute asylum seekers equally/proportionally to each country, based on their population size ?"

76% Yes
18% No



http://www.ogm.at/2014/10/maessiges-verstaendnis-fuer-kriegsfluechtlinge/

[Yeahsayyeah]

Oh, how I love this "Would you let them sleep in your own bed" strawman.

[Tender Branson]

Like I already posted before, the Austrian Parliament will be completely renovated between 2017-2020 for about 500 Mio. $

The concept has been presented today and features a glass ceiling:

 

 

[Tender Branson]

4 new polls out in the last few days, all from different pollsters, and they show pretty much the same thing:

25.3% FPÖ
25.0% SPÖ
24.5% ÖVP
12.8% Greens
  8.5% NEOS
  1.3% TS
  2.6% Others

It looks the ÖVP has consolidated support over the past few weeks after their leadership change and the gains are coming mostly from FPÖ, Greens and NEOS.

[Tender Branson]

A sensation in the PRESIDENTial election of 2016 is possible (at least now): The first GREEN head of state worldwide!, as Gallup polls (for www.oe24.at) prof. VanDerBellen with 39, the likely FPÖ-candidate with 9 and two imaginable candidates - Leitl/ÖVP and Bures/SPÖ - with 29 and 20.

Nice, but too early.

In a new interview with Lisa Kogelnik from the "Standard" newspaper, VdB did not rule out a 2016 presidential run (unlike Erwin Pröll from the ÖVP, who ruled it out a few times now):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

STANDARD: Are you going to fulfill the wish of your pary leader [Eva Glawischnig] and become the Green Party nominee for President in 2016 ?

VdB: We have an incumbent Federal President. The election is in May 2016. The candidates will be nominated half a year earlier. I will only say something about it in one year.

http://derstandard.at/2000007066400/Van-der-Bellen-Ich-gebe-zu-nicht-jede-Stunde-ist

...

That sounds like he's considering a run.

[Tender Branson]

The liberal party NEOS (better said, their base @ a convention) voted today to fully legalize pot:



http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/4197225/Neos-wollen-Cannabis-legalisieren

Despite the base vote, leading members (incl. party leader Matthias Strolz) are not happy with the vote, because they think that fully legalizing pot is "hard to sell" to Austrian voters (recent polls show that Austrians oppose pot legalisation by about 56-36).

[DC Al Fine]

The liberal party NEOS (better said, their base @ a convention) voted today to fully legalize pot:



http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/4197225/Neos-wollen-Cannabis-legalisieren

Despite the base vote, leading members (incl. party leader Matthias Strolz) are not happy with the vote, because they think that fully legalizing pot is "hard to sell" to Austrian voters (recent polls show that Austrians oppose pot legalisation by about 56-36).

Care to take a guess what the #'s are like for people open to voting for NEOS?