Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[MaxQue]

What will happen if the states or the central government don't obey to that European overreach and abuse of power?

[EPG]

What will happen if the states or the central government don't obey to that European overreach and abuse of power?

You mean the treaty Austria agreed to?

The Commission will tut and do nothing, as with France and Italy this year, unless it decides it is time for another small country to be cast to the wolves.

[Tender Branson]

What will happen if the states or the central government don't obey to that European overreach and abuse of power?

Nothing really.

"mandate" was probably the wrong word to use, because Austria does not have a constitutional deficit and debt brake like Switzerland and Germany have for example. That's why both countries are running balanced budgets in recent years and reduce their debts.

Not so in Austria: Our parties only managed to pass a simple deficit and debt brake law, without the 2/3 majority that was needed to put it into the constitution.

That means that the federal government, states, communities and the social security carriers are legally required to achieve balanced budgets from 2016 onwards, or face a "legal challenge".

The same with the EU: If their targets are not met, the countries who do not achieve them will face legal problems. But of course this is all relative, like EPG said. The EU often likes to punish small countries, while turning a blind eye to the big deficit abusers like France or Italy ...

[Tender Branson]

There's talk that the SPÖVP government could be over in March next year, if no income tax reform is agreed on. Early elections could take place then.

Here's a good "Economist" article about it:

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[Tender Branson]

The new updated Burgenland state constitution that will take effect Jan. 1, 2015 will not only get rid of the Proporz-system and allow free coalition agreements after elections, it will also establish an early-voting-day 8 days before a state election.

Pretty cool, but I don't really see how it is necessary because Burgenland already now has the highest turnout of any state (80-85%).

[Tender Branson]

Latest Unique Research poll for "Heute" (sample = 800):

28% ÖVP
25% FPÖ
25% SPÖ
12% Greens
  8% NEOS
  0% TS
  2% Others

Majority for ÖVP-FPÖ.

Majority for ÖVP-SPÖ.

Majority for FPÖ-SPÖ.

No majority for SPÖ-Greens-NEOS.

No majority for ÖVP-Greens-NEOS.

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,1104226

[Tender Branson]

The new Gallup poll now has the ÖVP ahead as well for the 1st time:

[politicus]

Is  BZÖ dead by now? They seemed to have stopped polling them?

[SNJ1985]

^ Judging by the recent polls TB posted, it looks like the pollsters only want to poll for parties that have seats in Parliament. Everyone else goes under ''Others'', if recorded at all.

[politicus]

^ Judging by the recent polls TB posted, it looks like the pollsters only want to poll for parties that have seats in Parliament. Everyone else goes under ''Others'', if recorded at all.

They got 3.53%  in the National Council election last year, so being among "Others", which are only polling 2% combined, is close to being politically "dead" (I suppose they must be at max 1.5%).

Also only 0.47% in the Euros (but that is a different game).

[Tender Branson]

Is BZÖ dead by now? They seemed to have stopped polling them?

^ Judging by the recent polls TB posted, it looks like the pollsters only want to poll for parties that have seats in Parliament. Everyone else goes under ''Others'', if recorded at all.

They got 3.53%  in the National Council election last year, so being among "Others", which are only polling 2% combined, is close to being politically "dead" (I suppose they must be at max 1.5%).

Also only 0.47% in the Euros (but that is a different game).

I'm not really sure if pollsters stopped polling them, or if support for them is just so low right now that pollsters just include them among "others". Some pollsters like Market used to ask for BZÖ and they got 1% up until the summer, after which they were also included into "others".

I think they are currently at 0.5% or something and on a level with the TS - so there is no need to include them in the polls anymore. The "other" category is just fine. If the BZÖ and TS somehow manage to increase their support in the next years (LOL), then they will show up in the polls again, because the pollsters will include them again when they reach a certain level (1%+).

But in general, the BZÖ is dead and the TS too. They have lost all credibility and while the TS still has money, the BZÖ is dead broke too. I think that if a federal election were held today, TS would match itself with the KPÖ (Communists) at around 1% and the BZÖ would match itself with the Pirate Party (both 0.5%).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

does either the BZO or TS have any local government seats anywhere?

[Tender Branson]

does either the BZO or TS have any local government seats anywhere?

The BZÖ has 2 MP's remaining in the Carinthian state parliament, following the 2013 state election. The next state election is only in 2018 and the BZÖ-Carinthia still gets some public party financing because of their 2 seats, but it's not that much and they need most of it for their parliamentary work. It's unlikely that they make it past the 2018 election.

The TS has 5 seats in the Lower Austria state parliament, following the 2013 state election and 1 government post because of the Proporz-system.

The TS has 4 seats in the Carinthia state parliament, following the 2013 state election and 1 government post because of the Proporz-system.

The TS has 3 seats in the Salzburg state parliament, following the 2013 state election and 1 government post because of the ÖVP-Green-TS coalition.

...

As you can see, the TS still has some local structure following their good 2013 election results and the 3 state parties have also distanced themselves from the recent problems in the federal party. Still unlikely that they manage to make it past the next elections.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I meant more below state government - city councils and the like.

[Tender Branson]

I meant more below state government - city councils and the like.

Not really, for 2 reasons:

* Municipal politics, contrary to state and federal politics, in Austria (especially in smaller cities) is still dominated by ÖVP and SPÖ, who are still combining 80-90% in most towns (The ÖVP by far is the most dominating). That's mostly because ÖVP and SPÖ have a really strong organisation in small towns (mostly among retired people and farmers). Even FPÖ and Greens have a tough time in these elections and often do not put up candidates, because they do not have the resources. In many towns, FPÖ and Greens can't even find candidates who are willing to run for them, another sign of ÖVP/SPÖ domination. Also, people are mostly happy with their ÖVP/SPÖ mayors.

* Most municipal elections are only taking place next year, while only Salzburg had municipal elections last year. The Team Stronach ran in a handful of towns but didn't manage to get many seats.

[Tender Branson]

New poll on the updated Islam law:



"With the new updated Islam-law, the government wants to ban imam/schools/mosque financing from abroad. Do you support the ban ?"

72-15 Yes

"Will the new updated Islam law lead to better relationships between Muslims and non-Muslims ?"

13-66 No

...

Background:

Lawmakers seek to boost «Austrian-style Islam» and buoy integration

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[Tender Branson]

After the SPÖ a few days ago, the ÖVP has now presented their tax reform plans too (the major political issue for the government ahead of the 2015 elections):

Austrian parties pursue tax reform deal to shore up coalition

(Reuters) - Austria's governing coalition partners have rolled out starkly different proposals on how to fund tax cuts, heralding months of touchy negotiations aimed at boosting voters' purchasing power at a time when the economy is flagging.



Chancellor Werner Faymann's Social Democrats (SPÖ) and Deputy Chancellor Reinhard Mitterlehner's People's Party (ÖVP) have hinted that their "grand coalition" in the Alpine republic could be at risk without a deal on tax reform.

(...)

The center-left SPÖ wants to revive inheritance taxes and slap a special levy on millionaires to help pay for lower income tax rates, while the center-right ÖVP opposes any new levies.

Negotiations kick off next week with the goal of having a deal ready to send to the Vienna parliament by mid-March.

"The concept is to relieve workers by at least 5 billion euros," Faymann told reporters after a cabinet meeting. His SPÖ aims to cut the tax burden by 5.9 billion euros ($7.3 billion).

"This relief is needed to boost purchasing power, not just because it is fair and right, but also because it spurs the economy," he said. The European Union member state's export-dependent economy contracted in the third quarter and may now face a recession.

The pressure is on Faymann to deliver after he garnered a relatively modest 84 percent support as SPÖ leader at a party conference late last month.

Mitterlehner, riding high after replacing the unpopular Michael Spindelegger as ÖVP leader this year, unveiled a plan to cut taxes by 5 billion over two years and by another 2 billion from 2020, primarily by trimming spending.

If the partners can't find a compromise, "then we have a problem", Mitterlehner told reporters. "We don't want to have this problem so I am very optimistic and relatively relaxed."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/10/us-austria-taxes-idUSKBN0JO1EH20141210

...

The APA compiled a nice chart to show the differences between the SPÖ and ÖVP proposals:



The SPÖ wants the tax reform to be exclusively an income tax cut, worth 6.05 Bio. €

The ÖVP wants it to be an income tax cut worth 3.8 Bio. €, 0.8 Bio. € to kickstart the economy by helping companies and 0.4 Bio. € for family benefits. An additional 2 Bio. € in tax cuts is also planned for 2019/20. For a total of 7 Bio. € in tax cuts.

Currently, most working Austrians pay ca. 30-45% in tax.

As you can see in the middle part of the chart, both SPÖ and ÖVP want to lower the tax burden:

The SPÖ wants to relieve low income workers the most (most of them women) and set an entry tax rate of 25% for these low incomes. The ÖVP wants to do roughly the same, but also lower the tax burden on high-income workers (the SPÖ plans to set the top 50% tax rate starting at 80.000€ a year, the ÖVP at 100.000€).

The last part of the chart shows how the parties want to finance the tax cuts (and the ÖVP plans):

The SPÖ wants a "wealth tax" to bring in 1.5 Bio. €, by taxing millionaires 0.5-1% a year. Another 500 million by introducing an inheritance tax (was abolished in 2008). The ÖVP categorically rules these measures out.

1 Bio. € by fighting tax fraud (same as ÖVP).

1 Bio. € by savings in administration, pork and fiscal equalisation between central gov./states/cities. The ÖVP proposal show these measures bringing in 2 Bio. €

0.83 Bio. € by eliminating tax exemtions/loopholes (roughly same as the ÖVP, 0.9)

"self-financing" should bring in 0.9-1.0 Bio. € each year (SPÖ, ÖVP)

"self-financing" means that the income tax cut will lead to higher consumption and a better economy, generating more revenues for the state.

...

Bottom line:

The SPÖ wants the income tax reform to mostly benefit low-income workers and introduce new wealth taxes to finance it.

The ÖVP does not want any new taxes to finance the tax reform and also wants to kickstart the lagging economy and help out families. Instead of new taxes, they want to mostly cut pork and save.

[Tender Branson]

derstandard.at (or better said the think-tank Agenda Austria) has a tax cut calculator, based on gross monthly income and differences between the SPÖ and ÖVP tax cut models:

For example, someone who earns 1500€ a month will get a 534€ annual tax cut under the SPÖ scenario, but only 429€ under the ÖVP scenario.

For someone who earns 2500€ a month, it's 1250€ (SPÖ) and 701€ (ÖVP).

For someone who earns 3500€ a month, it's 1945€ (SPÖ) and 1171€ (ÖVP).

...

Alltogether, the tax cut would be worth ca. 6% of the monthly net income (SPÖ), or 4% (ÖVP).

Of course, considering that the ÖVP would also implement a family benefit package, employees with children would get a higher tax cut than the 4%.

http://derstandard.at/2000009206138/Wer-wie-stark-von-den-SPOe-und-OeVP-Steuerplaenen-profitieren

[Tender Branson]

Our parties are receiving 205 Mio. € in public party financing this year.

In US terms, this would be worth ca. 10 Bio. $ in party funding.

The APA has a nice chart:



The first part shows the total financing by party (federal and state party financing).

The lower part shows how much is spent on public party financing per eligible voter (by state and federally => "Bund").

Vienna's public party financing is the highest, with 28.3€ per voter.

Vorarlberg spends the least amount (13.2€) and the federal parties get 11.7€ per voter.

Federal party financing (incl. for this year's EU elections) is 74.6 Mio. €, while state financing is 130 Mio. €

The state parties with the highest public party financing are:

* Vienna-SPÖ (13.9 Mio. €)
* Upper Austria-ÖVP (11.4 Mio. €)
* Lower Austria-ÖVP (10.9 Mio. €)
* Vienna-FPÖ (8.7 Mio. €)

The best state group for the Greens is Vienna (4.9 Mio. €) and for the TS it's Lower Austria (2.2)

http://derstandard.at/2000009358229/OeVP-knapp-vor-SPOe-groesster-Subventionsempfaenger

[Tender Branson]

Our parties are receiving 205 Mio. € in public party financing this year.

In US terms, this would be worth ca. 10 Bio. $ in party funding.

The APA has a nice chart:



The first part shows the total financing by party (federal and state party financing).

The lower part shows how much is spent on public party financing per eligible voter (by state and federally => "Bund").

Vienna's public party financing is the highest, with 28.3€ per voter.

Vorarlberg spends the least amount (13.2€) and the federal parties get 11.7€ per voter.

Federal party financing (incl. for this year's EU elections) is 74.6 Mio. €, while state financing is 130 Mio. €

The state parties with the highest public party financing are:

* Vienna-SPÖ (13.9 Mio. €)
* Upper Austria-ÖVP (11.4 Mio. €)
* Lower Austria-ÖVP (10.9 Mio. €)
* Vienna-FPÖ (8.7 Mio. €)

The best state group for the Greens is Vienna (4.9 Mio. €) and for the TS it's Lower Austria (2.2)

http://derstandard.at/2000009358229/OeVP-knapp-vor-SPOe-groesster-Subventionsempfaenger

I forgot to mention that the ÖVP leads the SPÖ in overall public party financing (63.8 vs. 60.2 Mio. €), because the ÖVP is stronger overall than the SPÖ in the state elections, as well as in the EU elections.

[Tender Branson]

Like I already posted, the SPÖ and ÖVP have recently presented their (different) comprehensive (income) tax reform proposals.

Today, the bipartisan expert tax reform commission delivered their 220-page report to the SPÖVP government and Finance Ministry.

The 13 experts were commissioned to find additional tax reform proposals on top of what SPÖVP proposed, to help finance the tax cuts.

The negotiations between SPÖ and ÖVP will start tomorrow and are expected to last 3 months, with the target date for a deal on March 17.

Both SPÖ and ÖVP have said that if there's no deal by March 17 next year, they "see no reason to continue the coalition".

http://derstandard.at/2000009438535/Schelling-laesst-sich-zu-Budgetfragen-beraten

[Tender Branson]

A new Salzburg state election poll by GMK for the weekly "Bezirksblätter" (this is the first poll in a year):



http://www.meinbezirk.at/salzburg-stadt/politik/exklusivumfrage-oevp-findet-zu-alter-staerke-d1186524.html

There's a massive realignment going on here in my home state:

The article reads "ÖVP back to old strength."

* The ÖVP reaches a new high in polling, with 41% support. That's 12% better than in the May 2013 state election.

* The SPÖ falls to a post-WW2 low of just 20%, down 4% from the election.

* FPÖ is at a relatively low point.

* The Greens, which got the best result ever for an Austrian Green Party last year, drop 5% - but still have a respectable 15%.

* The Team Stronach Salzburg falls to non-existance levels.

* NEOS (which was too new in early 2013 and did not run) gets 5%.

...

The current state government is ÖVP-Greens-TS.

The reasons for the ÖVP-high are primarily the fact that the ÖVP-Governor Haslauer Jr. is governing in a moderate hero style, often taking positions that even center-left voters like such as supporting a comprehensive all-day school.

The Greens on the other hand lost a bit because they have to deal with social issues like finding adequate housing/quarters for asylum seekers, which is not the most popular thing in Austria.

Overall, the government holds up pretty well because they solved the investment scandal that led to the collapse of the previous SPÖ-led government in 2012/13.

Remember that back in 2004, the SPÖ won the state election with more than 45% (!).

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll shows a solid right-wing majority, with the ÖVP moving further ahead and the SPÖ falling behind:



ÖVP-FPÖ has a 53-43 lead right now.

The current SPÖVP government has a 50-46 lead.

FPÖ-SPÖ has a 49-47 lead.

ÖVP-Greens-NEOS as well as SPÖ-Greens-NEOS are not possible right now.

Any coalition that would involve FPÖ/Greens or FPÖ/NEOS is not possible because of ideological and political reasons.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/SPOe-stuerzt-ab-OeVP-zieht-davon/169388023

[Tender Branson]

(2015) Upper Austria state election poll (Spectra for the OÖN):



SPÖ crashes to a new low, but the FPÖ is rather weak too.

It's pretty evident from this poll that the voters want the ÖVP-Green government to continue for a third term. Also, Gov. Pühringer (ÖVP) and the Green-leader have the highest approval ratings of all politicians.

Pühringer has a 78-12 approval rating, and is known by 97% of the voters.

Anschober has a 68-17 approval rating, with a 90% name recognition.

http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/landespolitik/OeVP-bleibt-klar-ueber-40-Prozent-rot-blaues-Duell-um-Platz-zwei;art383,1556774

[Tender Branson]

Looking at all the recent polls, after 6.5 years of Werner Faymann as SPÖ-leader and Chancellor - one thing is clear:

Werner Faymann & SPÖ fatigue has definitely set in now.