Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

New "Market" poll for the "Standard":

26% FPÖ
24% ÖVP
22% SPÖ
15% Greens
  8% NEOS
  1% TS
  1% BZÖ
  3% Others

http://derstandard.at/2000011391049/Mitterlehner-in-Kanzlerfrage-klar-vor-Faymann

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

That's wonderful. Ein mutiges Zeichen, dass selbst der Multikulti-Albtraum mal ein Ende hat

New "Market" poll for the "Standard":

26% FPÖ
24% ÖVP
22% SPÖ
15% Greens
  8% NEOS
  1% TS
  1% BZÖ
  3% Others

http://derstandard.at/2000011391049/Mitterlehner-in-Kanzlerfrage-klar-vor-Faymann

Some of us do understand German you know...

[Tender Branson]

That's wonderful. Ein mutiges Zeichen, dass selbst der Multikulti-Albtraum mal ein Ende hat

New "Market" poll for the "Standard":

26% FPÖ
24% ÖVP
22% SPÖ
15% Greens
  8% NEOS
  1% TS
  1% BZÖ
  3% Others

http://derstandard.at/2000011391049/Mitterlehner-in-Kanzlerfrage-klar-vor-Faymann

Some of us do understand German you know...

I don't understand Philip's posting really, because neither the 26% (FPÖ) + 2% (TS/BZÖ) voter support leads to an end to the "Multikulti-Albtraum" ("multicultural nightmare") - with 72% against, but also the fact that immigration to Austria under the ÖVP-FPÖ government was one of the highest in the post-WW2 era (in 2004, when the FPÖ was in government, net immigration to Austria was 50.000 people).

[Tender Branson]

The big OGM/Kurier "integration" poll:



From top to bottom:

More integration, but how ? In Austria, currently many new ideas and possible solutions about integration policies for a better living together of immigrants and natives are debated. Who should contribute more to a better integration of immigrants into Austrian society ?

36% the immigrants
  5% the native Austrians
55% both groups should move closer to each other

Penalties for integration-refusers ? Currently, a 440€ penalty is threatened to "integration-refusers" which for example do not send their kids to school or refuse to take part in mandatory swimming lessons. What do you think about this ?

45% the 440€ penalty should be enforced (not only threatened)
21% i'm for a higher penalty than that
26% i'm against any penalty

Cancel state family-benefits ? Should the payment of state family benefits to "integration-refusing" families be cancelled in extreme cases as a last resort, if for example their children are not allowed to attend school or swimming lessons ?

84% yes, in these extreme cases state family benefits should be cancelled
14% no

Facial veil ban ? Should the wearing of face/head veils be banned in schools ?

50% No
38% Yes

Is PPEGIDA right ? Do you think the concerns of this group are legitimate ?

30% Yes
42% No

Also: 88% of Austrians would never attend a PEGIDA-demo.

Which politicians has the best concepts regarding integration policy ?

30% Kurz (ÖVP)
15% Strache (FPÖ)
12% Voves (SPÖ, Styria-Governor)
  9% Häupl (SPÖ, Vienna-mayor)

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/ogm-stimmungsbarometer-mehrheit-gegen-kopftuch-verbot/112.547.995

[EPG]

Mandatory swimming lessons! Amazing.

[Philip Weisler]

1. It's possible, that the ÖVP-FPÖ government continued with reckless immigration policies, but it was long time ago; also, the government was generally considered a failure. Nevertheless, I'd like to see sources for that.

2. TS was euroskeptic, but was not against immigration. It's a useless microparty that will repeat the fate of LiF and BZÖ. Good riddance!

3. It's true that currently only FPÖ is consistently against reckless immigration, but it does not mean that only 26% of Austrians oppose open borders immigration policies. E.g., I do know ÖVP politicians of the local level, who share my views on that.

The fact that FPÖ, the anti-immigration, anti-islamization party leads the polls still says something. Consider that Greens the vehemently occidentophobic, pro-mass immigration party (the antipode of the FPÖ one could say) get just 15% support.

I don't understand Philip's posting really, because neither the 26% (FPÖ) + 2% (TS/BZÖ) voter support leads to an end to the "Multikulti-Albtraum" ("multicultural nightmare") - with 72% against, but also the fact that immigration to Austria under the ÖVP-FPÖ government was one of the highest in the post-WW2 era (in 2004, when the FPÖ was in government, net immigration to Austria was 50.000 people).

[You kip if you want to...]

The fact that FPÖ, the anti-immigration, anti-islamization party leads the polls still says something. Consider that Greens the vehemently occidentophobic, pro-mass immigration party (the antipode of the FPÖ one could say) get just 15% support.

But nobody votes for the Greens based off their immmigration policy, in the same way that I'm sure no one would vote FPO driven by their environment or education policies.

[Tender Branson]

Nevertheless, I'd like to see sources for that.

From Statistics Austria:



Net migration numbers between 1961-2013.

Grey = net migration to Austria of foreigners
Red = net migration of Austrian citizens

The black line is the total net migration.

...

As you can see, Austria mostly had a net migration surplus in the past 50 years - mostly because of the net migration surplus of foreign citizens.

Austria has a big outmigration of Austrian citizens though (for most of the past 50 years, more Austrian citizens emigrated than immigrated).

When the ÖVP/FPÖ/BZÖ government was in power, the immgration surplus steadily increased between 2000-2007 and peaked in 2004 at around 50.000+ net immigrants.

The high numbers in the late 60s and early 70s were mostly due to a high refugee influx from Czechoslovakia, after the Warsaw Pact troops invaded them.

The high numbers in the early 90s were due to a high refugee influx from the former Yugoslavia (Balkan wars).

...

In 2014, the migration balance is expected to have increased to around 70.000-80.000 people, which would be one of the highest rates since WW2 (or the Balkan wars). Detailed numbers will be out in May.

[Tender Branson]

Tender, did you copy and paste that last post from Strache's Facebook page?

LOLno, but it's the common-sense thing to say and do. Nobody likes the excesses that I have described above and most people prefer a smooth, well-running asylum system that takes up the persons in need and not 100.000s of unskilled, economic refugees which have no point of being here.

And I'm not alone:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/03/uk-eu-immigration-idUKKBN0L71S920150203

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

15% for a Green Party is pretty good. Those sorts of parties have a very natural ceiling to their potential (unless in very peculiar situations like baden wurttemberg)

[Tender Branson]

15% for a Green Party is pretty good. Those sorts of parties have a very natural ceiling to their potential (unless in very peculiar situations like baden wurttemberg)

The pollster Market tends to overpoll the Greens though. They are more at 12-13% right now.

[Tender Branson]

3 municipal elections coming up next month:

Carinthia (March 1)

2009 results (held on the same date as the "Jörg Haider remembrance vote" = 2009 state election):

36.7% SPÖ
33.1% FPÖ
20.4% ÖVP
  3.3% Greens
  6.6% Others/Indies

Turnout: 80.6%

Vorarlberg (March 15)

2010 results:

44.6% ÖVP
11.3% FPÖ
10.8% SPÖ
  7.3% Greens
26.0% Others/Indies

Turnout: 62.6%

Styria (March 22, without the capital Graz)

2010 results:

46.8% ÖVP
37.0% SPÖ
  6.6% FPÖ
  2.1% Greens
  1.2% KPÖ
  0.6% BZÖ
  5.7% Others/Indies

Turnout: 77.2%

...

This year, the SPÖ is strongly favored in Carinthia while the ÖVP is strongly favored in Vorarlberg. Styria should be a slight ÖVP-win.

[Tender Branson]

LOL, the PEGDIA-Linz (Upper Austria) "march" was planned for 3pm today.

It's 3:10pm now and there's only police at the scene and "a few skinheads who are drinking coffee".

But 3500 left-wing counter protesters ...

[Philip Weisler]

@ Tender Branson

Do you happen to know, whether there were lots of feminists and gay rights activists among the counterdemonstrators this time? I mean, it is difficult to find anything as ridiculous as womens' or gay rights' activists campaigning for more Islam in Western Europe but curiously enough it does take place.

LOL, the PEGDIA-Linz (Upper Austria) "march" was planned for 3pm today.

It's 3:10pm now and there's only police at the scene and "a few skinheads who are drinking coffee".

But 3500 left-wing counter protesters ...
ii

[Tender Branson]

@ Tender Branson

Do you happen to know, whether there were lots of feminists and gay rights activists among the counterdemonstrators this time? I mean, it is difficult to find anything as ridiculous as womens' or gay rights' activists campaigning for more Islam in Western Europe but curiously enough it does take place.

The articles mention that the counter-protests are organized by the "Offensive against the Right", trade unions, SPÖ, Greens, Communists, SJ (Socialist Youth) and the SLP (Socialist Left Party).

The counter-protest doesn't exclusively include a gay-rights group or a feminist group, but I guess many of these people there support these issues.

[EPG]

15% for a Green Party is pretty good. Those sorts of parties have a very natural ceiling to their potential (unless in very peculiar situations like baden wurttemberg)

Class profile matters a lot in determining votes for the big Austrian parties. SPÖ and FPÖ often do well in the same areas, as do ÖVP and Greens in (urban) areas.

[Tender Branson]

Tsipras in Vienna today:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.thelocal.at/20150209/greeces-tsipras-in-vienna-for-friendly-meeting

[Tender Branson]

The big income tax cut/tax reform is taking shape. SPÖVP is still aiming for a deal by mid-March and the focus is now on cutting tax loopholes and increasing property taxes, rather than introducing wealth taxes (which the SPÖ favors and the ÖVP categorically rules out).

Apparently, the coalition not only wants to cut income taxes by 5-6 Bio. € accross the board, but also present a "business investment package" that will help kickstart the stagnating economy and the construction industry.

A similar policy in Spain (income tax cuts and business incentives) have led to solid GDP growth last year (+1.4%) and Spain is even expected to grow 2.5-3% this year.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Hegel bemerkt irgendwo, daß alle großen weltgeschichtlichen Thatsachen und Personen sich so zu sagen zweimal ereignen. Er hat vergessen hinzuzufügen: das eine Mal als große Tragödie, das andre Mal als lumpige Farce.

Hegel states at some point, that all great facts and characters of world history occur twice, so to speak. He forgot to add: Once as great tragedy and once as cheap farce.

Karl Marx - Der achtzehnte Brumaire des Louis Napoleon

[Tender Branson]

Hegel bemerkt irgendwo, daß alle großen weltgeschichtlichen Thatsachen und Personen sich so zu sagen zweimal ereignen. Er hat vergessen hinzuzufügen: das eine Mal als große Tragödie, das andre Mal als lumpige Farce.

This is a reference to what (in this thread) ?

[Yeahsayyeah]

Oh, it was a reference to Vienna's "Pegida". It seems I accidentally jumped back in this thread and thought this had been yesterday. Sorry for that.

Of course, it can stand as a metaphor for Austrian history after WW I in general. ;-)

[Tender Branson]

Unique Research poll for "Heute":

Do you agree with the phrase "Islam belongs to Austria" ?

  7% Yes, definitely agree
21% Yes, somewhat agree        => 28% agree

27% No, somewhat disagree
42% No, definitely disagree       => 69% disagree

  3% Undecided

http://epaper.heute.at/#/documents/150209_HEU/4

[Tender Branson]

That would be too good to be true:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/04/austria-hypo-excellere-idUSL6N0VE4JW20150204

[Philip Weisler]

As I've said, in topics like mass imnmigration and kowtowing to islam, more than 26% side with the FPÖ. But there are other issues/aspects, that explain why FPÖ has just 26% support. From this poll it is obvious that most Austrians do not agree with the increase of the influence of Islam in their country.

Unique Research poll for "Heute":

Do you agree with the phrase "Islam belongs to Austria" ?

  7% Yes, definitely agree
21% Yes, somewhat agree        => 28% agree

27% No, somewhat disagree
42% No, definitely disagree       => 69% disagree

  3% Undecided

http://epaper.heute.at/#/documents/150209_HEU/4

[Tender Branson]

Hilarious stunt by the Austrian broadcaster ORF:



In an ORF-produced series called Vorstadtweiber ("suburb women", the Austrian version of Desperate Housewives), one dialogue went like this: "HC Strache is gay !"

HC Strache is of course the Austrian FPÖ-leader.

The ORF decided to cut out the dialogue before they aired it, but forgot to delete the dialogue from the subtitles for the hearing-impaired ...

http://derstandard.at/2000011517266/ORF-entfernt-schwulen-Strache-aus-Vorstadtweiber

It should be noted that the ORF has a history of pissing off Strache and the FPÖ.

On the other hand, the FPÖ calls the ORF a so-called "Rotfunk" (=> SPÖ-broadcaster).

LOL.